213 Miles From Shea

Conforto! The Mets 2017 All-Star! The outfielder who the Mets didn’t mark as a starter on Opening Day. Conforto was having a career year until he swung so hard that he literally tore himself, knocking him out until realistically May of this year. Let’s take a look at the 2017 projections and then the 2017 stats.

2017 Stats:
109 G, 440 PA, 373 AB, 72 R, 104 H, 20 2B, 27 HR, .279 BA, .384 OBP, .555 SLG

The projections did a good job nailing down the amount of playing time Conforto would receive. It’s disappointing though how wrong the average was about him. He hit about 20 points higher, got on base 60 points higher than projected and slugged more than 100 points above the average projection. Even Baseball Prospectus was wrong about Conforto’s success. ZiPS was the closest with a slugging only 90 points off and at least having him hit 24 homers (even though that was low).

The Mets 2018 depends on a healthy Conforto. Hopefully the Mets signing of Bruce will allow the Mets to not rush Conforto’s return.

Last year the Mets came into the season with 4 corner outfielders in Bruce, Conforto, Cespedes and Granderson. While the Mets have a clearer picture now, it was confusing for a while in April and May last year finding playing time for everyone.

Granderson was traded to the Dodgers and ultimately left off their World Series roster. I love Curtis, even when the stats say I shouldn’t. Granderson was coming off of a season where he hit 30 homer.s

2017 Stats:
147 G, 527 PA, 449 AB, 74 R, 95 H, 24 2B, 26 HR, .212 BA, .323 OBP, .452 SLG

Granderson’s numbers took a massive hit when he went to the Dodgers. His average dropped nearly 70 points, his OBP dropped nearly 40 points and his slugging dropped 120 points.

Overall, his numbers didn’t drop horrendously as you might think from 2016, especially when the Dodgers numbers are taken with a grain of salt. His numbers were down though from his projections with the exception of slugging.

As of writing this on 1/15, Granderson is still a free agent. He was a strong signing for the Mets several years ago and I hope he finds success again this year.

I love baseball. I love to eat. I love to travel far distances to watch baseball but really it’s because I love to eat.

I went to Seattle in summer 2017 and ate this:

This is the Great State Burger available at the ‘Pen in Seattle. The ‘Pen was a great place to go first at the ballpark, the gates opened up before the rest of the stadium and I was lucky enough to see Chris Flexen throw a bullpen session from the catcher’s perspective. A lot of fun.

In Mets terms, this burger was closer to Bash Burger than Shake Shack (I also like Bash Burger better, don’t @ me). Huge plus – toasted bun and shredded lettuce.

(Important – Article was written 1/15. Maybe the Mets have signed a 2B or 3B)

Asdrubal Cabrera was the member of the 2017 Mets who asked for a trade. Asdrubal Cabrera was one veteran of the team that wasn’t traded. Thus is a life of Met I suppose, even the players don’t get what they want. Going into this season, Cabrera will be either the 2B or the 3B of the team that could use a defensive upgrade at both positions. Cabrera’s 2016 offense numbers were great and any return to them will provide the Mets with a lift. Wherever the Mets play him will take a hit a defensively.

2017 Stats:
135 G, 540 PA, 479 AB, 66 R, 134 H, 32 2B, 14 HR, .280 BA, .351 OBP, .434 SLG

Cabrera’s power numbers regressed back to his mean career numbers last season, which make sense. The projections had him hitting worse and getting on base less than he actually did, but got his slugging just about right, even while missing how much his homer totals will fall.

Before writing this article, if you asked me at what clip did Cabby get on base last year, I would not have told you .350. That’s above what he was in 2016 when he was a massive surprise (.336 OBP with 23 homers). I called him as exciting as a Turkey Sandwich before that season. He was more turkey sandwich than Thanksgiving last season, but still respectable.

His defense though. That’s the sticking point now.

The Good First Basemen. Then the traded first basemen. Now (as of 1/15) the free agent first basemen.

2017 Stats:
127 G, 491 PA, 423 AB, 50 R, 92 H, 30 HR, .217 BA, .322 OBP, .496 SLG

For the second time in his career, Duda hit 30 homers last year which no site projected him doing. He actually out slugged two highest projections for him by 30 points. The trade off was in OBP and BA as both dropped dramatically compared to projections.

There was a power epidemic last year in baseball. Even with that Duda hit almost 8 homers more than he was projected to.

As stated earlier he had not signed as of writing this article but I feel he will still be a bargain for whoever signs him this off season.

For a second straight season, I have no idea what to write about Brandon Nimmo. The signing of Jay Bruce this off-season doesn’t just make things difficult for Lagares, it makes things incredibly difficult for Nimmo. Nimmo enjoyed a boost of playing time at the end of the season as the injuries and trades piled high for the Mets. First let’s look at his 2017 projections:

2017 Stats:
69 G, 215 PA, 177 AB, 26 R, 46 H, 11 2B, 5 HR, .260 BA, .379 OBP, .418 SLG

Despite the amount of trades and injuries, Nimmo still had less playing time than projected but he used his time wisely. He hit the homer projection and the batting average projection, hit 50 points better in on base and about 30 points better in slugging.

Nimmo had a good year last year. His numbers, even over a whole season, won’t save the team but this was solid. Especially compared to what the Mets had in April last year. I’m curious to see how the projections handle him for this upcoming season.

Back in 2014 and 2015, the plan for 2017 for catcher was d’Arnaud followed by Plawecki. There were times in 2013 and 2014 that the Mets felt flushed at catcher between the two catchers moving up in the system. Plawecki struggled when first called up. At the same time, Rene Rivera went through a resurgence and clearly took the back up (and sometimes starting) role in 2017. But injuries and trades meant Plawecki had to play a bit more although towards the end of the season he and d’Arnaud had to split the time with prospect Nido. Nido will be competing with Plawecki and to a lesser extent d’Arnaud this spring.

2017 Stats:
37 G, 118 PA, 100 AB, 11 R, 26 H, 5 2B, 3 HR, 13 RBI, .260 BA, .364 OBP, .400 SLG

Plawecki saw quite a bit less playing time if you look at projections that generate PA’s, and not so much if you look at projections that look just at AB’s. They got his power numbers exactly correct for homers, but way over projected his Slugging. He performed way better at OBP and BA.

This will be the story with Plawecki. He didn’t see a lot of action last season but his numbers were better than I expected on review. He’s never hit for power at any level, but he has always hit. If he can continue that this year, the Mets could be in a good spot for catcher, I just don’t see yet how the Mets balance d’Arnaud, Plawecki and Nido (but knowing the Mets they’ll balance it incorrectly at first and then someone will get injured and it won’t matter).

The Mets invited XX players to Spring Training last season. Thanks to injuries the Mets had to dip into their Non-Roster invitees a bit more than originally thought. Some of the players we previewed last year are with different teams now, some are still in the Mets system, some are on the Mets and some could potentially be starting for the 2018 Mets. Before we do a review, here’s a list of the non-roster invitees from last year.

1. Chasen “Chase” Bradford
2. P.J. Conlon
3. Kevin McGowan
4. David Roseboom
5. Ben Rowen
6. Paul Sewald
7. Corey Taylor
8. Logan Taylor
9. Adam Wilk
10. Xorge Carrillo
11. Phillip Evans
12. Luis Guillorme
13. Dominic Smith
14. Champ Stuart
15. Travis Taijeron
16. Ty Kelly

Chasen “Chase” Bradford
Chase ended up being an active piece of the Mets bullpen as the injuries started to pile up. He logged 33.2 innings over 28 games with a 3.74 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.277 WHIP, walking 13 and striking out 27. The Mets DFA’d him earlier this week to make room for Gonzalez on the 40-man but he didn’t make it through waivers as the Mariners put a claim on the reliever.

P.J. Conlon
PJ earned another non-roster invite for this upcoming season. he posted insane numbers in 2015-16 with non-over powering stuff. Last year his numbers returned to Earth as he put up a full season in Binghamton pitching 136.0 innings over 28 games and 22 starts with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP while walking 38 and striking out 108.

Kevin McGowan
As of writing this article, it is unclear if Kevin McGowan has cleared waivers as he was DFA’d to make room for Jay Bruce. In limited major league action last year he pitched 8 games and logged 8.2 innings posting a 5.19 ERA, 6.39 FIP and 1.615 WHIP. Not the best numbers but not a lot of numbers.

David Roseboom
David struggled in limited work (18 games, 17.1 innings) last season posting a 8.31 ERA, 9.87 RAvg, 1.788 WHIP. He was knocked out of Triple A thanks to a foot injury.

Ben Rowen
I was intrigued by Rowen last year only because he’s a submarine pitcher. In the minors he pitched 54 games and 63.1 innings with a 4.41 ERA and 1.468 WHIP walking 13 and striking out 52. He became a free agent in November.

Paul Sewald
We knew Sewald would make the majors last year and he ended up getting a lot of work, a lot more than we thought back in the spring. He’s 0-6 over 57 games and 65.1 innings with a 4.55 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 1.209 WHIP. He will be competing (and probably getting) a bullpen spot in 2018.

Corey Taylor
Taylor pitched well in Binghamton this year and probably will figure into the Mets plans at a higher level in 2018. He pitched in 42 games and 62.1 innings last year posting a 3.61 ERA, 4.04 RAvg and a 1.332 WHIP.

Logan Taylor
Logan Taylor was attacked in Vegas last year after a game and needed staples and was left with a concussion. Over 28 games and 4 starts he logged 47.0 innings last year with a 4.98 ERA and a 5.55 RAvg. He is still with the Mets system.

Adam Wilk
Adam Wilk made it to the Mets last year to address the Mets pitching depth during the run of injuries. When the Mets DFA’d him in May and he was selected by the Twins who released him near the end of June. He’s been a free agent since then. He made one start for the Mets where he allowed 6 runs, 5 earned over 3.2 innings from 8 hits.

Xorge Carrillo
Carrillo is now a free agent after a long time with the Mets organization. The catcher played in 70 games with 272 PAs slashing a .270/.320/.425. He is currently playing in the Mexican League. As of writing this article he has a .266/.329/.342 line.

Phillip Evans
Evans managed 33 ABs towards the end of the season and made the best of swatting a .303/.395/.364. His line has lead to another Non Roster Invite for the upcoming season.

Luis Guillorme
Luis made the most of his NRI last season as he famously caught a bat in the dugout with one hand like it was no big deal. He has the best hands in the Mets system and found his way to the 40 man roster for the upcoming season. In 558 PA’s last year in Binghamton, the shortstop slashed .283/.376/.331.

Dominic Smith
Dom Smith had a NRI into camp last year. Seriously. Being drafted out of high school, it’s easy to forget how young Dom Smith actually is, especially with all of the pressure and hate he has received this off season. His strength is his defense and he didn’t show that last season in the majors. Now he has competition from the top with Gonzalez, an additional back up plan in Bruce and heat below him from Pete Alonso.

Champ Stuart
Stuart, the speedy outfielder from the Bahamas has not received an NRI for 2018 yet. Last year in Binghamton he posted 372 PAs hitting .222/.310/.331, so not great but he did log 35 stolen bases.

Travis Taijeron
After years of playing in the Mets season, Travis Taijeron finally got a chance at the major league level. Known as all of nothing guy in the minors, hitting homers and not much else, he struggled in the majors over 59 PAs hitting .173/.271/.269 with only homer and two doubles in 9 hits. He was granted free agency in November and signed with the Dodgers.

Ty Kelly
After being a critical player for team Israel in the World Baseball Classic, Kelly got a NRI back to Mets camp. He was DFA’d from the Mets in early April and selected by the Blue Jays and then purchased by the Phillies 12 days later. He became a free agent at the end of the season. Kelly had one PA as a Met last year and struck out (previous year hit .241/.352/.345). With the Phillies this year he slashed .193/.260/.341 over 104 PAs.

The Mets catcher, and at least once their 2nd and 3rd basemen, is heading into another critical year. Can he hit close to projections? Can he stay healthy? Do the Mets need to jump ship on d’Arnaud and Plawecki and try something else? First a look into what the projections thought he would do last year:

2017 Stats:
112 G, 376 PA, 348 AB, 39 R, 85 H, 16 HR, .244 BA, .293 OBP, .443 SLG

d’Arnaud exceeded play time projections last year (not sure if that ever happened). In general his non-power numbers came in below expectations (average, OBP) and his power numbers came in quite a bit above projections (almost 5 more homers than projected, 40 points higher in slugging).

As such the best programs at predicted his performance this year was Steamer and totally not surprisingly, Baseball Prospectus. FBG was close too but they over project everyone, so they get lucky with players like d’Arnaud.

If he stays healthy this year, maybe he cracks 20 homers? How much time does he split with Plawecki? Will there be a new player like Rene Rivera between them as well?

Before the Mets signed Jay Bruce earlier this month, Juan Lagares looked to have an increased role on the team this year. He’s spent the off-season working on his hitting. If Juan Lagares improves his offense just a small amount, he will be a tremendous player by overall war thanks to his DRS. Let’s spend some time looking at his offense stats from last year:

2017 Stats:
94 G, 272 PA, 252 AB, 37 R, 16 2B, 3 HR, .250 BA, .296 OBP, .365 SLG

Thanks to injuries and a logjam of outfielders at the start of the season, Juan Lagares ended up playing exactly the amoutn of time as expected. He hit one homer less than expected, a few points lower in both BA and OBP and about 11 points less in slugging. Baseball Prospectus wins the battle of “did they get OBP correct though?” which is my preferred stat to use.

Depending on Juan’s health this year, and the health of those around him, it is curious to predict both what he will do in 2018 and the role he will have on this team.