Reviewing 2017 Projections – Travis d’Arnaud

The Mets catcher, and at least once their 2nd and 3rd basemen, is heading into another critical year. Can he hit close to projections? Can he stay healthy? Do the Mets need to jump ship on d’Arnaud and Plawecki and try something else? First a look into what the projections thought he would do last year:

Travis d’Arnaud
PA AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2016 276 251 27.00 4 15 0 0.247 0.307 0.323
Projections
MLB.com 335 38.00 10 45 0 0.257 0.314 0.394
Steamer 276 31.00 10 35 1 0.254 0.322 0.42
ZiPS 363 43.00 10 36 1 0.248 0.309 0.393
ESPN 31.00 7 26 0 0.251
Baseball Prospectus 416 47.00 13 49 0 0.249 0.321 0.414
Sporting News 312 37.00 12 42 1 0.256 0.32 0.415
NBC Rotoworld 308 40.00 11 41 1 0.224 0.302 0.372
Rotowire 323 38.00 10 34 0 0.251 0.314 0.393
Baseball America 405 42.00 11 40 1 0.24 0.297 0.371
FBG 2017 348 42.00 13 39 0 0.252
Average 389.5 329.57143 38.9 10.7 38.7 0.5 0.2482 0.312375 0.3965

2017 Stats:
112 G, 376 PA, 348 AB, 39 R, 85 H, 16 HR, .244 BA, .293 OBP, .443 SLG

d’Arnaud exceeded play time projections last year (not sure if that ever happened). In general his non-power numbers came in below expectations (average, OBP) and his power numbers came in quite a bit above projections (almost 5 more homers than projected, 40 points higher in slugging).

As such the best programs at predicted his performance this year was Steamer and totally not surprisingly, Baseball Prospectus. FBG was close too but they over project everyone, so they get lucky with players like d’Arnaud.

If he stays healthy this year, maybe he cracks 20 homers? How much time does he split with Plawecki? Will there be a new player like Rene Rivera between them as well?

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