Where Are They Now: Mets in Tampa Bay

The Rays have one former Mets on their roster in the form of Allan Dykstra. Dykstra has been in the Mets minors for a few seasons and was granted free agency this year, which led him to the Rays. Before the Mets, he was with the Padres.

He put up solid numbers with the Mets, but wasn’t enough to move up the majors as the Mets have had a large amount of hitters similar to Dykstra over the last few years. I really wish I had more to say, but I don’t.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Lucas Duda

Lucas Duda was one of the best story lines from last season. Initially in a platoon split with Ike Davis, after an early season trade Duda was able to hit 30 homers and etch himself in as a first basemen that didn’t play terrible defense. Let’s take a look at his excellent season:

2014 Stats: 596 PA, 74 R, 27 2B, 30 HR, 92 RBI, .253 BA, .349 OBP

Do the computers think he will flash that type of power again? Let’s take a look:

PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 24 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 69 RBI, .242 BA, .335 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 514 AB, 71 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, .241 BA, .335 OBP
MLB.com: 525 AB, 68 R, 28 HR, 80 RBI, .248 BA, .339 OBP
ZiPS: 562 PA, 75 R, 26 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 92 RBI, .260 BA, .359 OBP
Steamer: 619 PA, 533 AB, 68 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 75 RBI, .234 BA, .331 OBP
ESPN: .248 BA, 71 R, 27 HR, 76 RBI

Average: 571 PA, 524 BA, 69 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24.5 HR, 78 RBI, .246 BA, .340 OBP

It looks like he will have a power drop, but that is also typical in computer models after a 30+ homer season with the exception of a few players. The question for the Mets is, will he get 571 PA’s? If the Mets go through with the plan of having Cuddyer getting start at first, it will galvanize the amount of AB’s he’ll get, and cut through these numbers.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in the Bronx

Curently there are three players who have joined the organization that lives on the other side of town: Capuano, Beltran and Chris Young.

Capuano had a solid year for the Mets in 2011 reaching a total of 186 inning sand a 4.55 ERA. Before that, his last time in the majors was in 2007 where he posted a 5.10 ERA over 29 games. In 2010 he then posted a 3.95 ERA in 24 games, but only 9 starts. He was able to use his success with the Mets to sign a two year deal with the Dodgers where he pitched better the following season and about two-thirds of a season load hte year after. In 2014 he split his time between the Red Sox Bullpen and the Yankees Rotation.

Beltran was such a critical player for the Mets for so long, I was happy to see him have success with the Cardinals after we traded him to San Francisco (he also netted us Zack Wheeler, so Beltran was the gift that kept on giving). He did well enough with the Cards to warrant a new contract with the Yankees, and he’ll try to rack up some more numbers as he moves on towards the end of his very nice career. If he has an amazing year this year, slamming 27 jacks, he’ll be up to 400 in his career. If he plays in 2016, he stands a decent shot at recording 400 Homers, 500 doubles overall, and maybe 2500 hits. After this year he should pass 1400 runs and 1000 walks.

The Mets signed Chris Young as an experiment last year. Didn’t really work out for us but the Yankees are still rolling with it.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Travis d’Arnaud

Last year was the tale of two seasons for d’Arnaud. He struggled immensely at the start of the season, was sent down the minors, and then came back strong. If he can repeat the second half of the season again, the Mets will be in good shape. Let’s take a look at the numbers he put it up:

2014 Stats: 421 AB, 48 R, 22 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 41 RBI, .242 BA, .302 OBP

And now let’s look at how the computers think d’Arnaud will respond in 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 360 PA, 39 R, 18 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 46 RBI, .251 BA, .315 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 504 AB, 63 R, 19 HR, 68 RBI, .252 BA, .318 OBP
MLB.com: 435 AB, 54 R, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .253 BA, .309 OBP
ZiPS: 399 PA, 50 R, 20 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 49 RBI, .255 BA, .313 OBP
Steamer: 497 PA, 52 R, 24 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 61 RBI, .252 BA, .311 OBP
ESPN: .255 BA, 57 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI

Average: 418.7 PA, 470 AB, 52.5 R, 20.6 2B, 1.7 3B, 15.8 HR, 55.7 RBI, .253 BA, .313 OBP

It looks like the computers see a significant improvement in batting average and on-base percentage for next year. What I’m more surprised about is the different predictions for power numbers, ranging for a decrease down to 12 homers and as high as 19 homers. I would love to see some of these higher numbers come true.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Boston

The Red Sox have one player from the Mets organization: Dana Eveland.

Losing Eveland actually puts the Mets in an interesting position. Right now the Mets only have one left-handed pitcher and the Mets were hoping to sign Eveland to a minor league contract and have him compete for a bullpen spot. Last year was his first time in the majors since 2012 and he had probably the best year of his career with a 2.63 ERA over 27.1 innings. Wishing Eveland the best of luck in Boston!

(Before joining the Mets, Dana played in the majors with the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Athletics, Blue Jays, Pirates, Dodgers and Orioles).

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Michael Cuddyer

The only major move the Mets made this off-season* was signing Cuddyer, and that was fairly early on in the off-season. At the time it was deemed a controversial move because of how it early it was made. Turns out that OF moved a lot during the winter meetings, and since the Mets ended up doing nothing else, the move was made in a vacuum, which hurt the perception of the move some more. That being said, Cuddyer could still be a critical part of the Mets season and be that extra push. Let’s take a look at his 2014 Stats with the Rockies:

2014 Stats: 205 PA, 32 R, 15 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 31 RBI, .332 BA, .376 OBP

He had an injury shortened season last year, but it was his second straight year of hitting .331. While I’m pretty sure he won’t do that again, shades of that would be incredibly beneficial to the Mets offense. Let’s take a look at what the computers say is on tap for 2015:

PECOTA (BP): 265 PA, 29 R, 14 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, 31 RBI, .260 BA, .320 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 465 AB, 57 R, 14 HR, 60 RBI, .258 BA, .319 OBP
MLB.com: 412 AB, 60 R, 14 HR, 60 RBI, .279 BA, .340 OBP
ZiPS: 372 PA, 42 R, 21 2B, 2 3B, 12 HR, 44 RBI, .271 BA, .325 OBP
Steamer: 597 PA, 543 AB, 63 R, 28 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 69 RBI, .254 BA, .313. OBP
ESPN: 66 R, 19 HR, 67 RBI, .265 BA

Average: 411 PA, 473 AB, 52.8 R, 21 2B, 1.7 3B, 14 HR, 55.2 RBI, .265 BA, .323 OBP

It’s difficult to aggregate the data. The more complete models that run different stats have Cuddyer platooning a lot where the Mets right now see Cuddyer playing more often and taking time at first base. I’m not going to lie, 14 homers would be disappointment, especially if he takes away considerable time from Duda at firstbase. That being said, I would take the .265 BA from Cuddyer in a heart beat after how “prolific” our offense was last season.

 

*This article was written on 2/20, so there’s the possibility the Mets made some other major move, but I doubt it. 

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Baltimore

There are two former players on the Baltimore Orioles who used to call Queens their home: Logan Verrett and Darren O’Day.

Logan Verrett was selected by the Orioles in the RuleV draft this year in the major league round. The O’s will have to hold on to him the entire season to keep him. His numbers were impressive but the Mets couldn’t protect him with the amount of players they needed to protect this year. Hopefully he has a good career with Baltimore and if they want to send him back, we’ll take him!

Darren O’Day has made a name for himself in Baltimore. The Mets got O’Day from the Angels in 2008 and the Rangers selected him off waivers in 2009. Then Baltimore came in 2011 to select him off waivers. He onl;y pitched 4 games with the Mets allowing 2 runs, none earned over 3.0 innings. The last three years in Bmore he has posted a 2.28, 2.18 and an 1.70 ERA.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Zack Wheeler

On this last day of the month we reach our last pitcher in the projection series, Zack Wheeler. Last year was Wheeler’s first full season in the majors and he had a lot on his plate thanks to Harvey being out all year. As important as a Harvey bounce back season is, and strong sophomore season from deGrom, Wheeler taking the next step forward is crucial for the Mets to have a shot in 2015.

2014 Stats: 11-11, 32 G, 185.1 IP, 187 K, 79 BB, 1.33 WHIP, 3.54 ERA

He had a good first year. Harvey and deGrom spoiled us with their excellent first years, so it becomes difficult to look at his above numbers, which are actually good, and not be a little disappointed. The above pretty much shows his weakness last year: walks. He nearly had a 2-1 K to BB ratio, which wouldn’t be so bad if he didn’t have nearly 80 BB. His strikeout #’s are great, but if they don’t get on base, they don’t score. Will those numbers improve in 2015? Hopefully. Let’s take a look:

PECOTA (BP): 9-10, 28 G, 155.2 IP, 149 K, 66 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.67 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 9-10, 153.2 IP, 145 K, 65 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.75 ERA
MLB.com: 11-11, 190 IP, 190 K, 66 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.51 ERA
ZiPS: 31 G, 175.2 IP, 172 K, 67 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 9-10, 27 G, 153 IP, 150 K, 61 BB, 3.79 ERA
ESPN: 12-9, 188 K, 1.32 WHIP, 3.48 ERA

Average: 10-10, 28.7 G, 165.2 IP, 166 K, 65 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.61 ERA

So it looks like Wheeler will be more or less the same pitcher that he was last season. Usually after a pitchers first full year, the computers show a moderate regression, I would say moderate is too strong of a word when looking at these numbers, it looks like a slight regression. Also important to note, in the BP Annual, Wheeler has a 40% chance of performing significantly better than his projected like and a 65% chance of improving from last year.

Where Are They Now: Mets in Pittsburgh

While the Pirates have been the home of some notable Mets over the last few seasons due to trades (looking at you Ike Davis, John Buck and Byrd), for a while I was stumped trying to find a former Met who was in the Pittsburgh organization this year.

While writing the Twins article, I realized that Deolis Guerra was granted off-season at the end of the 2014 season and signed on with the Pirates! Really for the Twins, this ended a trade for Johan Santana where everyone has pretty much disappeared out of Minnesota from that trade. The star that ended up being traded to the Twins was Carlos Gomez, but they shipped him to the Brewers.

Anyway, Guerra started for playing with the Mets back in 2006 when he was only 17, and before the Mets traded him to Minnesota, he was putting up nice numbers at a young age. But that was pretty much it. he couldn’t really get it together but over the last several years he has been putting up passable stats at the upper levels of the minor leagues. Maybe this is the year he finally gets the call. He’s still youngish, as he’ll be 26 during the upcoming season.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Noah Syndergaard

The Mets have a stacked rotation at the start of the year with Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon and Niese (and Gee in the bullpen). At some point this season, Syndergaard is expected to arrive. In case you need a primer, and I’m pretty sure you don’t, Syndergaard was acquired with d’Arnaud and Becerra for Dickey, Thole and Nickeas. Syndergaard has been in the Futures game for the last two seasons and looks to make that next step soon. Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do this year.

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 25 G, 120.1 IP, 118 K, 36 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.50 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 26.2 IP, 26 K, 8 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.78 ERA
MLB.com: 4-3, 50 IP, 46 K, 16 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.42 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 134.1 IP, 142 K, 38 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 7 G, 38.0 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 3.61 ERA
ESPN: 1-2, 33 K, 1.47 WHIP, 4.80 ERA

Average: 3.2-3.4, 19.3 G, 73.2 IP, 67 K, 27.2 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.77 ERA

What I’m most surprised about here is the ESPN projection only because typically the ESPN projection tends to be the most bullish of the set. They are near the bottom for how much action Syndergaard will see in the majors and what he’ll be able to do. That’s why I’m also surprised about the PECOTA projections reported in the BP annual, they tend to be the most conservative, and usually correct, in the set and they see him having a major impact on the season.