I always fall for minor league cards. When I visit a Mets farm team for the first time that season, I pick up a team set. I generally buy 1-2 boxes of baseball cards per year and the first (sometimes the only) box I’ll buy is a minor league set.
Mike Piazza was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2016 and the Mets finally retired his number later that same July. It was the first time that I attended three home games in a row and it was so worth it.
The Sunday game was bobblehead day, with explosive lines around the stadium.
Mets Memorabilia 3/23: Mike Piazza Bobblehead from his Number Retirement celebration weekend at Citi pic.twitter.com/p9WUCWKpYj
A long time ago I used to post a Mets baseball card of the day. With nothing else baseball wise happening right, it feels like a good idea to do that again.
Do you remember Josh Satin? Some of my earliest memories of Mets Twitter comes from the 2011-2013 time frame just as Twitter was really taking off and #MetsTwitter was becoming a place for Mets fans to hangout (starting the transitioning period from facebook groups and blogs).
I’m trying to fill that giant baseball size hole in my heart right now by looking at some of the Mets baseball things I have around my apartment. Today’s is from an away game in Milwaukee from 2016:
Mets Memorabilia of the day 3/22: The first time I flew just for a baseball game was for @The7Line's 2016 outing in Milwaukee. This is a ticket from one of the games that weekend (Matz had a really bad start) pic.twitter.com/4y15bvWL3y
The game before was the first time I flew specifically just for a baseball game, it was a 7 Line outing. The day was super hot and the Mets had Logan Verrett making a spot start in the rotation. This game featured a horrid start by Steven Matz. The memories aren’t about the Mets performance, just how nice it was to travel across the country with other people with baseball as the sole goal.
Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
David Peterson is the Mets next top tier pitching prospect, especially since the Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay trades. Peterson is the right age and has had the right recent health history to dictate that his time is approaching. I don’t think we’ll see him this year until late in the year unless two starters are out for a significant amount of time and it makes sense to give Peterson regular reps at the major league level. (Otherwise it injury time starters will fall to Ramirez, Oswalt, Gsellman, etc).
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
So first off, Peterson’s debut for a significant amount of time seems so unlikely that ESPN and BR didn’t even do a projection for him. The numbers make sense for everyone who did do it. He’s top tier on the Mets in terms of readiness, not necessarily in terms of stuff. Because he has a chance of making the team at some point this year, we decided it was necessary to gather his projections for this article.
Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Corey Oswalt did not factor into the Mets 2019 season at all. Something is going to have to go very wrong with the 2020 Mets for him to factor into this year as well. Depending on which veterans stay with the team after they get assigned to Minor League camp, the Mets are going to break camp with 6 starters, then there’s Ramirez, in camp on an NRI with Gsellman on the depth chart. After those 8 pitchers is Oswalt with Sewald. But for some reason or another, Oswalt will probably see playing time in 2020 so we wanted to do a quick projection article.
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
There were moments in 2018 were Oswalt looked quite good, but the Mets never game him consistent or regular playing time and jerked him around between clubs. That will probably happen again in 2020 if the Mets need him. His average projection line looks serviceable as a spot starter, and the Mets would certainly be able to survive with him pitching, it’s just not ideal.
Happy deGrom day! Jacob deGrom takes the mound today as the Mets avoid playing a divisional rival team like the Nationals or the Marlins and play the Cardinals instead.
The Mets Scored More Than Three Runs!
The Mets beat the Astros yesterday 7-4 and collected 9 hits. Rene Rivera had a big day going 2-4 and Cordell also collected two hits. Yesterday we noted how Eduardo Nunez has had a good spring despite last year and he continued it yesterday, going 1-3 with a double, raising his average to .321 and his OPS to .851.
Porcello somehow allowed only 2 runs yesterday despite allowing 9 hits as he became the first pitcher to go beyond 4 innings this Spring. Payano had a good outing behind him allowing no runs in 2.0 innings.
Nimmo got hit by a pitch. So yesterday just felt very Mets.
On The Mound Today:
Jacob deGrom has only pitched one official spring training game. In that start he allowed 1 hit and struck out 2 over 3.0 innings. He’s been throwing simulated games and working on a curveball that he rarely uses. In one attempt in his last simulated game, J.D. Davis smacked it out of the park. Outside of that, deGrom seemed to have fun befuddling his teammates with his slider.
After deGrom pitches is when this day gets really interesting. Diaz, Familia and Betances are all listed to go. Diaz is trying to build off his positive outing last time out. Familia is trying to continue his positive spring and Betances is trying to show that he can be healthy and effective. It’s a massive day for the bullpen. Brach will follow them and he has had an under the radar great spring.
The Lineup:
Jeff McNeil
Amed Rosario
Robinson Cano
J.D. Davis
Wilson Ramos
Matt Adams
Jake Marisnick
Ryan Cordell
Jacob deGrom
There’s no DH today! One of our pitchers who rake will be getting his cuts in today. The bench is real interesting though today. Guillorme is listed as he is in open competition now with Nunez for a spot on the roster. Top prospects Gimenez and Mauricio are also both listed as the Mets continue to take an extended look at them, especially at the 18-year old Mauricio who has been impressive against MLB caliber talent this spring.
Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Steven Matz got off to a really rough start last year Matz’s last couple of starts were quite rough. As humans, we tend to remember first and very last impressions the most. The middle part of the season, once Matz returned to the rotation, was quite good. Matz should be the fourth starter in the rotation. He’s proved he can pitch an entire season. He showed an extended stretch of good baseball. And honestly when I started writing these articles before Spring Training games started, I thought Matz was a lock for the 4th starter spot. Over the last couple of weeks the Mets brass have talked about Porcello as the 4th and then Wacha. I just can’t get behind that.
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
The average stat lines also can’t get behind the idea of Matz not starting. His numbers aren’t terrific, top of the rotation type stuff, but that average line would be fine as a 4th starter. Right now, I can’t imagine Wacha or Porcello putting up a better average line than one all the projections say.
BP and ZiPS, two of the better projections for pitchers are the bullish one’s on Matz. That’s an interesting development. That’s also a good sign for Matz, if of course, the Mets allow him to start.
The Mets didn’t lose or win yesterday as they tied, again! Third time this spring! If you like strong pitching performances, yesterday was a day for you. The Mets bats will try to find themselves today against the Astros.
Yesterday:
Michael Conforto hurt his side while making a catch yesterday. He received an MRI in Florida but is heading back to New York for a further evaluation. Not a good sign right now.
Outside of that, yesterday was a mostly normal day. Walker Lockett looked good, allowing only 3 hits in 3.0 innings with two strikeouts. Surprising probably everyone, Corey Oswalt became the first Mets pitcher to toss 4.0 innings in a Spring Training game this year. He allowed 3 hits and one unearned run while striking out 5. Seth Lugo made his spring debut and looked good with a clean inning of work and Bashlor rebounded from his awful outing allowing a walk and a hit and nothing else in one inning.
The Mets only mustered 5 hits yesterday. In the good news department – Rosario had an extar base hit for a second straight day, a triple this time, raising his spring OPS to .481. Alonso who has also struggled getting hits this spring added one as well.
Pitching Today:
Rick Porcello is the start of the show today as he continues to battle Matz and Wacha for a rotation spot. In 3.0 games and 6.0 innings he has allowed 6 hits and 1 run while walking 1 and striking out 7. Pretty good. We expect him to toss somewhere between 3-4 innings today.
Mets Lineup:
Brandon Nimmo
Robinson Cano
J.D. Davis
Wilson Ramos (DH)
Dominic Smith
Eduardo Nunez
Rene Rivera
Ryan Cordell
Andres Gimenez
Eduardo Nunez has been getting a lot of playing itme and he’s been makign the most of ith with 8 hits including a double and a triple in 25 AB’s, hitting .320/.393/.440. Luis Guillorme, who he is competing with, is hititng .182/.217/.227 in 22 AB’s.
Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
The Mets bullpen was one of the worst in the majors last year. Seth Lugo was one of the best relievers in the majors last year. That tells us two things. First, the Mets success in 2020 is dependent on Lugo having another great year. Two, Lugo put in some serious work at such a high level last year that for the Mets bullpen to still be one of the worst, the other guys in the pen must have had some really bad stats (which we know is true).
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
These stat projections seem just about inline with everyone’s typical personalities. ESPN loves to double down on good seasons, and they are way out in front in almost every category. Baseball Reference is one of the more conservative projection programs, and they still have Lugo have a good season, just a significant step from last year. BP seams like the most realistic because they’re in the middle, which is why the average line reflects their thoughts. If that’s what Lugo does, than the Mets bullpen may be in good shape in 2020.
We have to remember though the main lesson in 2019: it takes more than one good reliever to carry the team.
