2018 Non-Roster Invite: P.J. Conlon

The Mets gave a major league invite for a second straight season to P.J. Conlon, the pitcher out Ireland with a sense of humor:

Anyway, PJ turned heads in the 2016 season putting up ridiculous numbers. We previewed him last year where we concluded:

I couldn’t read his profiles and not think of Tim Kurkjian’s new book I’m Fascinated By Sacrifice Flies where he spends time talking about the abundance of power throwing lefties in the league now. You used to have just a handful as recently as Billy Wagner’s time, but now they’re all over the league. This makes Conlon an old school style lefty pitcher. That being said, the local Belfast paper still posted a video of him hitting 90-mph as if it was something amazing. Which it is. As baseball fans in America, we have gotten used to the idea of 90-mph as practically slow in the minors when this is a human feat of strength to get that.

Our feelings about Conlon are the same as they were a year ago, even those his numbers returned to Earth this past season. Last year he posted a 3.38 ERA and a 1.235 WHIP. His career ERA is 2.35 and his career WHIP 1.075. As he goes farther through the farm system, not overpowering stuff catches up but he’s still getting hitters out and the Mets need lefties. He doesn’t project as the now typical Left Handed specialist throwing fire but with the Mets system the way that it is, and barring a minor league signing of another lefty, he will probably be knocking on the door to Queens at some point this season.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

The Mets had a Good Off-season. The Mets had a Bad Off-season.

The Mets simultaneously had a good and bad off-season. The Mets came into the off-season with several needs: 1-2 relievers, starting pitching depth, a center fielder and either a 2nd or 3rd basemen.

The Mets signed:

  • Anthony Swarzak – Right Handed Reliever
  • Jay Bruce – Corner Outfielder
  • Adrián Gonzalez – First Basemen
  • Jose Reyes – Middle Infielder
  • Todd Frazier – Third Basemen
  • Jason Vargas – Starting Pitcher

So the Mets really accomplished everything on their check list. The main gripes that fans, and myself, have had with with the off-season, even with how active the Mets have been, especially compared to other clubs, is:

  • Before the Mets signed Frazier and Vargas, it felt like the Mets were assembling the same roster from the previous seasons.
  • The Mets oft optioned for the “sorta fix” rather than the actual fix. For example – Jay Bruce is a nice signing. Cain would have been the truer fit to the need.
  • The Mets spent a lot of money, but went with the cheap option multiple times, especially highlighted with not going for Cain or Darvish. Will the saving of money be worth not being guaranteed the wins.

In the end, Mets fans can claim both a good and bad off-season, as they have already been doing on twitter, claiming the narrative that matches their opinion about the Mets before the start of the off-season.

The Mets are cheap! They only got players because the market came to them and got the lower tier players at every opportunity (this matches the ideas that owners do not spend money and ignores the amount guaranteed given out).

The Mets only sign their own players! Bruce and Reyes again! (this ignores the signings of multiple non-Mets).

The Mets actually filled their gaps! Why are you complaining? (this ignores that the Mets still have a glaring LHP hole in the bullpen that must be addressed or Blevins will fall apart by July).

They addressed their needs. It’s annoying that they still went with lower tier players in the largest market in the United States. It’s great they signed player to team friendly deals but it’s annoying that they lean heavily on former Mets. The Mets have increased their depth! What is the quality of the depth? The Mets simultaneously had a good and bad off season.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

Things I Ate at the Ballpark – Mama’s of Corona

I love watching baseball. I love food.

I love deli sandwiches.

I don’t know why I didn’t go to Mama’s of Corona’s until 2017. That was a big mistake on my part. Huge mistake. I would say it was the largest mistake I’ve made as a Mets fan but being a Mets fan I know I’ll make another one in at least a month. So goes the nature of being a Mets fan.

Look at all the mozzarella. So much! and the meat! And that perfect bread!

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Noah Syndergaard

Part 30 of 30 – Noah Syndergaard. The final entry in our projections review last year will also be one that doesn’t quite make sense to do since he was lost due to injury in late April.

Noah Syndergaard
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 183.2 14-9 2.60 43 218 1.15
Projections
MLB.com 195 16-9 2.72 46 221 1.11
Steamer 199 13-10 3.03 51 234 1.07
ZiPS 188.2 2.91 43 224 1.07
ESPN 14-8 2.91 226 1.11
Baseball Prospectus 182.2 12-9 3.04 211 1.15
Sporting News 188 15 2.49 45 223 1.07
NBC Rotoworld 190.1 17-6 2.65 41 223 1.05
Rotowire 198 15-7 2.73 49 229 1.131
Baseball America 174 11 2.59 37 168 0.99
FBG 2017 201 16-7 2.87 43 232 1.1
Average 190.611 14.3-8 2.79 44.375 219.1 1.0851

2017 Review:
1-2, 7 G, 30.1 IP, 2.97 ERA, 3 BB, 34 K, 1.055 WHIP

Basically this is an exercise in does the ERA and WHIP the projections computers thought Syndergaard would have match 7 starts he made, two of which were 1.0 innings at the end of the season. The answer is, yeah? His ERA was a 20 points higher, his WHIP was three points lower. His work was 130 innings down.

The Mets need Syndergaard to have a chance in 2018. I am curious to see how the projection programs handle his 2017 injury for his 2018 numbers.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Jacob deGrom

Only two more projection reviews in this almost month long journey! Today we’ll look at Jacob deGrom, who will be the first pitcher in a while in this series whose projections probably make sense to look at.

Jacob deGrom
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 148 7-8 3.04 36 143 1.2
Projections
MLB.com 180 14-9 2.95 46 180 1.15
Steamer 180.1 11-10 3.49 46 177 1.16
ZiPS 163 3.31 41 162 1.147
ESPN 12-7 3.19 168 1.17
Baseball Prospectus 180 12-10 3.51 189 1.18
Sporting News 167 11 3.45 40 162 1.17
NBC Rotoworld 188.2 15-8 3.34 43 192 1.16
Rotowire 175 11-8 3.29 42 170 1.149
Baseball America 168 9 2.46 34 144 0.96
FBG 2017 175 11-9 3.07 41 180 1.12
Average 175.144 12.6-8.7 3.21 41.625 172.4 1.1366

2017 Stats:
15-10, 31 G, 201.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 59 BB, 239 K, 1.187 WHIP

Jacob crossed 190 innings for the second time in his career and cruised through the 200 K mark for the second time of his career. The models had deGrom with a slight regression off the 2016 numbers, but deGrom slid more than that. He still was the best starter the Mets had last year although some projections, like Baseball America, were way off.

I was dismayed last year when I read the Baseball Prospectus projection. It’s the one I trust the most and it was the one that had deGrom struggling the most. It also was the closest to correct for the starter.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Steven Matz

Hey. Remember when we did a projection review for Matt Harvey yesterday? And he wasn’t even close? Well get ready for part two! Steven Matz!

Steven Matz
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 132.1 9-8 3.40 31 129 1.21
Projections
MLB.com 165 11-7 3.33 38 160 1.17
Steamer 163.2 10-9 3.46 48 161 1.2
ZiPS 138 3.46 39 141 1.195
ESPN 11-7 3.27 148 1.2
Baseball Prospectus 131 9-7 3.47 128 1.19
Sporting News 148 10 3.34 38 147 1.17
NBC Rotoworld 166.2 12-8 3.46 39 157 1.18
Rotowire 165 10-8 3.44 46 149 1.212
Baseball America 137 8 2.30 29 131 1.26
FBG 2017 150 12-7 3.41 36 146 1.22
Average 151.489 10.3-7.6 3.29 39.125 146.8 1.1997

2017 Stats:
2-7, 13 G, 6.08 ERA, 66.2 IP, 19 BB, 48 K, 1.530 WHIP

I would be so incredibly happy if Matz pitched his projected like for last year, this upcoming year. 151 Innings? I’ll take it. I was upset and didn’t want to believe he would only toss 151 innings last year. A 3.29 ERA? a 1.1997 WHIP. Yes Please.

Unlike the Harvey projections, a few projections saw him regressing a hair, they ended up being the closest to reality for Matz.

All in all, with his injuries last, looking at last years projections for these two doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Matt Harvey

This series or articles was way more fun to write back when we were covering pitchers. If a hitter didn’t match the projection, they typically performed better. The pitchers on the other hand have done way worse. Anyway, here’s Matt Harvey. I wonder how he did compared to projections (sarcasm).

Matt Harvey
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 92.2 4-10 4.86 25 76 1.47
Projections
MLB.com 170 12-8 3.49 40 162 1.16
Steamer 141 9-8 3.64 34 130 1.17
ZiPS 141 3.83 45 112 1.22
ESPN 6-7 3.91 1.26
Baseball Prospectus 156 10-9 3.74 154 1.2
Sporting News 153 8 3.47 36 136 1.22
NBC Rotoworld 175 13-8 3.39 39 176 1.14
Rotowire 116 7-6 3.80 27 106 1.25
Baseball America 110 5 2.86 21 81 0.97
FBG 2017 150 10-10 3.50 32 140 1.16
Average 145.778 8.3-8 3.56 34.25 133.00 1.18

2o17 Stats:
5-7, 19 G, 92.2 IP, 6.70 IP, 47 BB, 67 K, 1.694 WHIP

Well. That was fun.

Harvey struggled. A lot.

Here’s what I’m taking from this projection review. Every projection, and there were a lot of them, all had Harvey bouncing back from his tough 2016 campaign. They were all wrong.

I was wrong.

The universe was wrong.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Robert Gsellman

Robert Gsellman had to pitch way more than projected last year. The projections also completely missed his struggles in a way similar to Lugo.

Robert Gsellman
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 44.2 4-2 2.42 15 42 1.28
Projections
MLB.com 145 9-8 3.85 46 120 1.27
Steamer 111.1 6-7 4.20 38 86 1.35
ZiPS 155 4.12 47 124 1.29
ESPN 8-8 3.71 125 1.31
Baseball Prospectus 148 9-9 4.22 111 1.33
Sporting News 86 4 4.40 31 64 1.41
NBC Rotoworld 113.1 8-5 3.65 33 91 1.26
Rotowire 142 8-8 3.80 46 125 1.303
Baseball America 144 8 2.69 34 91 1.03
FBG 2017 125 9-6 3.39 41 119 1.22
Average 129.911 7.6-7.3 3.80 39.50 105.60 1.28

2017 Stats:
8-7, 5.19 ERA, 25 G, 119.2 IP. 42 BB, 82 K, 1.504 WHIP

Amazingly, the projections got the amount of pitching Gsellman down almost exactly on average. Not as amazing, they were way off on his season. There was a wide variance as good as 2.69 ERA and as high as 4.40 for Gsellman but he struggled 0.8 runs more than that with a WHIP a couple hundred points higher than projected too. Like Lugo, both Gsellman struggled with injuries. Second season pitchers are difficult for projection programs to track.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

Things I Ate at the Ballpark – Tachos in Seattle

I love baseball. I love food. I love eating at ballparks.

If you remember last week, you also know I love nachos.
If you remember that than:
1) You’re my Mom. Hi Mom.
2) You remember my eating habits. I guess that’s flattering. Or weird.
3) You made an assumption that I’m human (mostly safe bet) and that I love nachos (even safer bet)

Nachos are great. Tachos are even better. Here’s a pic of some tachos I ate in Seattle:

Look cheese on food is great. Fried potatoes are great. Banana peppers are great. Everything about this great. Now I want tachos. It’s 9:30 in the morning. I’m ok with my life decisions*

*Actually its 9:39 PM on 1/15 when I wrote this but whatever.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment

2017 Projections Review – Zack Wheeler

Hey! Guess who actually pitched in 2017? Zack Wheeler! Was he the Wheeler we were always promised?

Zack Wheeler
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2014 185.1 11-11 3.54 79 187 1.33
Projections
MLB.com 80 4-4 3.60 68 38 1.33
Steamer 71.1 4-4 3.53 62 27 1.25
ZiPS 97 4.18 42 85 1.41
ESPN 2-2 3.92 35 1.44
Baseball Prospectus 98.2 6-6 3.98 103 1.32
NBC Rotoworld 109 7-6 3.96 47 112 1.35
Rotowire 39 2-2 4.15 18 35 1.462
FBG 2017 150 10-8 3.87 62 152 1.32
Average 92.0429 5-4.6 3.90 49.83 73.38 1.36

2017 Stats:
3-7, 17 G, 86.1 IP, 5.21 ERA, 40 BB, 81 K, 1.587 WHIP

Look the projections said he would pitch again, and he did. Amazingly the computers actually did a good job projecting the amount Wheeler would actually pitch although they were way off as Wheeler struggled a lot before he got knocked out for the season. ZiPS and Rotowire were the closest regarding stats and ZiPS and MLB.com were the closest to actual total amount of innings.

Posted in Main Page | Leave a comment