Game Preview: Mets @ Giants

On Thursday the Mets got a wonderful start from Noah Syndergaard and tons of amazing innings from the bullpen, but squandered it with a silent offence. On Friday the Mets got a dazzling start from Jacob deGrom, but nothing from the offense and Mets lost. Yesterday, on Walker Locket day, Lockett pitched a game beyond initial expectations for him and the offense was unleashed, smacking homers all over the place. Now the Mets have a chance to split the series today with a win in San Francisco before getaway day.


Steven Matz gets to close out the series today. He is 5-6 over 19 games and 17 starts pitching 85.0
innings with a 4.87 ERA, 5.45 FIP, 1.482 WHIP and 85 ERA+. Matz was effective, albeit limited, in his first start back from the pen earlier in the week. He tossed 4.0 innings allowing 2 runs from 5 hits and a walk. Last year he pitched against the Giants twice allowing 3 runs over 12.0 innings from 5 hits and 2 walks while striking out 16. The Giants have the following numbers against him:


Brandon Belt 1-5, BB, 4 K
Tyler Austin 2-5, K
Evan Longoria 2-5, 2 HR
Joe Panik 1-4, BB
Austin Slater 2-5
Brandon Crawford 2-3, K
Buster Posey 1-2


The Mets bats draw Conner Menez who will be making his major league debut. The lefty has split time between AA and AAA posting a 3.13 ERA over 18 games, 17 starts in 95.0 innings of work with a 1.126 WHIP. With Sacremento, his AAA squad, he has a 3.86 ERA over 35.1 innings with a 1.415 WHIP. Of course, there are a few things to remember with that line. First, it’s only 7 games, 6 starts. Second, it’s in the PCL which has been notoriously tough for pitchers (and that Giants AA team is in Richmond, VA where the climate problems for baseball don’t exist). Third, he posted this line despite being 2.8 years younger than the league average.


Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Giants

The Mets have gone from a four game winning streak to losing two games in a row in heartbreaking fashion. Thursday they lost in the 16th inning after getting the go-ahead run in the top half. Yesterday they lost in the 10th inning despite an amazing outing from deGrom. If both of these games just broke the other way, we would be talking about defending a 6 game winning streak today. Alas, you don’t become one of the worst teams in the National League by chance. The Mets hope to turn it around today to make tomorrow a split day rather than a salvage day.


Walker Lockett will try to put things back together for the Mets today, and what we really mean by that: he will try to put himself back together. In two starts for the Mets this year he has allowed 10 runs from 10 hits in 7.2 innings leading to a 11.74 ERA, 6.22 FIP, 1.696 WHIP and 37 ERA+. He has not faced anyone on the Giants roster yet in a major league game which makes sense- he’s only had 6 starts in his major league career.


The Mets bats will try to score runs against Jeff Samardzija after not scoring runs for most of this series. Jeff is 7-7 over 19 games and 105.1 innings with a 3.93 ERA, 4.48 FIP, 1.177 WHIP and 107 ERA+. He’s been good in July, making three starts, pitching 21.2 innings allowing only 4 runs on 13 hits (1.66 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:


Todd Frazier 1-9, 2B, 3B, HR, 4 BB, 5 K
Wilson Ramos 6-16, 2B, 3 HR, 5 K
Adeiny Hechavarria 6-14, HR, K
Robinson Cano 5-6, 3 2B, BB, K
Michael Conforto 2-4, 2B, HR


Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Giants

The Mets and Giants continue their series tonight as the ace of the staff takes the mound for the Mets. Jacob deGrom is 5-7 over 19 starts and 115.0 innings with a 3.21 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.122 WHIP and 127 ERA+. By peripheral stats, his season is becoming better than his 2017 season where he posted a 3.50 FIP, 1.187 WHIP and 117 ERA+. Anyway, he’s coming off a short outing where he only pitched 5.0 innings but also allowed only 1 runs from 6 hits and 3 walks (and shockingly the bullpen and bats behind him supported him through the end of the game). He missed the Giants earlier in June and last year he allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over 6.0 innings while striking out 10. The Giants have the following stats against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Tyler Beede who is 3-3 over 11 games and 9 starts over 51.1 innings with a 5.44 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 1.578 WHIP and 78 ERA+. He’s coming off an average start where he allowed 3 runs from 7 hits and no walks over 6.2 innings and over his last 5 starts he has posted a much more respectable 3.41 ERA. He faced the Mets back in June allowing 6 runs, 5 earned over 5.0 innings from 5 hits and 4 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Why Do So Many Teams Have a “Chance” at the NL Wild Card?

The Mets, owners of a 44-51 record, .463 winning percentage are technically the third worst team in the National League. The Marlins have a .376 percentage and the Reds who have one and lost one more game then the Mets, have a .462 percentage (essentially a tie).

Yet the Mets and the Reds are both only 5 games out of the Wild Card spot. There are a lot of games, and teams, in front of both teams but it feels like they have a shot.

The White Sox are the closest team to the Mets record wise in the American league at 42-50 have a .457 percentage and are 11 games out of the Wild Card. That seems right for that type of record. So what’s going on?

It looks like the problem is with the American League, and their lack of parity (or large amount of teams tanking) are buoying the National League. The Marlins are the only team in the National League below a .400 winning percentage but in the American League, 5 teams are at that mark. Not a single team in the National league has a run differential that has crossed -100 yet. But in the American League:

  • White Sox -103
  • Mariners -109
  • Tigers -176
  • Orioles -187

On the other end, the American League has 3 teams above .600 and 6 teams above .570. In the National League has only 1 team above .600 and two total above .570.

This matters when you start to look at Inter League Play. The following teams are at least 3 games below .500 in Inter League:

  • Twins (3-6)
  • Reds (6-9)
  • Brewers (3-7)
  • Orioles (3-7)
  • Mariners (3-7)
  • Blue Jays (2-11)
  • Tigers (5-13)

There are only two National League teams on that list! One of them is essentially tied with the Mets for the worst record in the National League and the other actually has a wild card spot right now! In total only 5 National League teams are below .500 in Inter league while 10 teams are below .500 on the American League side. The NL is stealing wins, constricting the Wild Card race. If we go back to that list above, the Tigers, Blue Jays, Mariners and Orioles are all in the bottom of the American League (the other sub .400 team is the Royals, 3-5 in Inter League), their collective tanking is adding to the turmoil in the National League.

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Game Preview: Mets @ Giants

The Mets have won four games in a row! After taking the series in Miami, the Mets swept a two game set in Minnesota and now find themselves only 5 games out of the wild card. This is shocking because they have the third worst winning percentage in the National League (really they are tied for second as they are only .001 better than the Reds but that’s neither here nor there).

Odd math aside (quick armchair analysis blames a plethora of bad teams in the American League), the Mets can continue to muddle up their July plans today with a win, or at the very least get another showcasing of Noah Syndergaard out there. Syndergaard is 7-4 over 18 starts and 112.2 innings with a 4.55 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.243 WHIP and 89 ERA+. He’s coming off a strong start in Miami where he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings. He pitched against the Giants back in June and allowed 3 runs over 6.2 innings. The Giants have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Madison Bumgarner who is 5-7 over 20 games and 116.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.217 WHIP and 109 ERA+. In his last 4 starts he has tossed 20.0 innings allowing only 5 runs, 4 earned. He was average in his last start against the Mets on June 4th, allowing 3 runs over 6.0 innings from 6 hits and 2 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Twins

The Mets are on a three game win streak! They look to sweep the two game set from the Twins this afternoon. Yesterday the bullpen was called on for 5 innings of work to protect a 1-run lead and it worked! The bullpen did their job! Can they do it again today?

Jason Vargas is the most likely pitcher not named Zack Wheeler to be traded before the deadline, and Wheeler’s recent trip to the IL makes this afternoon’s start by Vargas even more important. Can the Mets drive up his trade value? On the season he is 3-5 over 16 games and 15 starts logging 76.2 innings posting a 4.23 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 1.304 WHIP and 96 ERA+. His first start from the All-Star break was a rough one – he allowed 6 runs over 5.0 innings against the Marlins. Before that he allowed 17 runs, 14 earned over 47.1 innings in 8 games, a 2.66 ERA where opponents got on base against him at a .289 clip. His one relief outing this year was against the Twins and it was terrible – 4 runs in one inning, in a game the Mets lost 14-8. The Twins have the following stats against him:

The Mets bats will look to provide the Mets pitching staff with a little more breathing room against Martin Perez today. Perez is 8-3 over 18 games and 15 starts logging 95.0 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 1.368 WHIP and 107 ERA+. Perez has struggled in his last 7 starts allowing 32 runs, 26 earned, from 39 hits and 14 walks in 37.0 innings (but only 2 homers!). He’s posted a 6.32 ERA in this stretch and opponents have an on base percentage of .331 (but only a .683 OPS). He pitched against the Mets in relief earlier this season, allowing 3 runs in 2.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Twins

Sunday was an improbable day for the Mets. A pleasantly unusual day. The type of day that makes you wonder: too many good things happened today, I’m sure something bad is going to happen. Why was it such a good day?

  • The Mets won a rubber game
  • Meaning the Mets actually won a series
  • And it was a Sunday, the Mets never win those
  • We haven’t even mentioned yet that it was on the ROAD. It’s been forever since the Mets won one of those
  • Jacob deGrom started and the Mets scored more than 3 runs
  • Robinson Cano homered in back to back days

That feels great, right? Well something bad did happen, Wheeler was placed on the IL for arm fatigue. The “armchair” GM in me (really not trying to make a pun here y’all) in feels that this related to the Mets rushing Wheeler out twice before the All-Star break. The Mets are pulling Matz out of the bullpen and into the rotation again as a stopgap measure (although Matz should have been returning to the rotation anyway). He is 5-6 over 81.0 innings and 18 games, 16 starts, this year with a 4.89 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 1.481 WHIP and 83 ERA+. After a terrible series of starts, he was mostly alright in the bullpen (meaning he didn’t allow any runs) but still managed to allow 3 hits over 1.0 innings split over two games. C.J. Cron is the only batter on the Twins roster who has seen Matz in a game and has gone 1-2 with a double and a walk.

The Mets get to see an old Yankee today – Michael Pineda! Pineda is 6-4 over 17 starts and 92.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 1.176 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Before the All-Star break Pineda put together back to back starts of allowing 1 run over 6.0 innings which dropped his ERA from 5.02. Outside of bad start on June 23rd (5 runs over 5.0 innings) Pineda has been a different pitcher in his last 5 games allowing only 9 runs in 28.2 innings, a 2.83 ERA (and remember 5 of those runs are from one game). The last time he faced the Mets was in 2015, and he was quite good allowing only 2 run over 13.0 innings, but that was a very different Mets roster. The Mets have the following numbers against Pineda:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Marlins

The Mets face a challenge they have surmounted few times in the last couple of seasons. It’s their Everest. Their albatross. The most difficult type of game for them ever – a Sunday, day game, rubber game. Last night the Mets beat the Marlins 4-2 thanks to a strong start from Noah Syndergaard and Robinson Cano‘s first homer with a runner on all season (did we win the Cano trade yet?).

Today the Mets will try to score runs for Jacob deGrom. Not only is today a Sunday, day game, rubber game, it’s a deGrom start! Jacob has tossed 7 quality starts in a row yet the Mets as a team are 1-6 in those starts. Amazin’. Jacob is 4-7 over 18 stars and 110.0 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 1.091 WHIP and 124 ERA+. In his last 9 starts he has tossed 58.0 innings with a 2.64 ERA while holding batters to getting on base at a .263 clip. He faced the Marlins in back to back starts in May with very different results. In the first start he allowed 1 run over 7.0 innings (close to his April outing against the fish – 7.0 innings of shutout ball). He then allowed 7 runs, 6 earned on 9 hits over 5.0 innings. The Marlins have the followings stats against deGrom:

The Marlins send out their 2019 All-Star, Sandy Alcantara for the rubber game. He is 4-8 over 17 starts and 101.1 innings with a 3.82 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.401 WHIP and 107 ERA+. He faced the Mets in back to back starts in May and like deGrom, they were very different starts. In the first start he allowed 4 runs from 8 hits and 2 walks in 5.2 innings in a game the Mets would win 4-1. He then pitched a complete game shutout against the Mets, holding the Mets bats to just 2 hits and a walk. The Mets have the following stats against Sandy:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Marlins

The 2nd half of the 2019 MLB season started and we’re pretty sure no one told the Mets, who looked dreadful last night. Vargas struggled as a started, Gsellman struggled behind him and outside of a too-late-to-do-anything 2-run homer from Frazier in the 9th, the Mets bats just couldn’t keep up. So the Mets lost again to the Marlins and now only 5 games separate the two clubs.

Noah Syndergaard looks to move the Mets back to the right track today. Is this a tryout for other teams? His name has come up in trade talks this past week, similar to Wheeler a year ago. On the season he is 6-4 over 105.2 innings in 17 starts with a 4.68 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.278 WHIP and 86 ERA+. His last three starts have been rough – 12 runs, 11 earned in 16.2 innings with opponents getting on base at a .377 clip and posting a .884 OPS. His only start against the Marlins came back on May 19th where he held the fish to 2 runs over 7.0 innings in a game the Mets would eventually lose 3-0. The Marlins have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

The Mets draw the rookie Zac Gallan making his 4th career major league start today. Over his first three starts he has tossed 12.0 innings with a 4.50 ERA, 2.87 FIP, 1.417 WHIP and 94 ERA+. Zac tossed 10.0 innings during his first two starts, one where he allowed only 1 run over 5.0 and the other where he allowed 3 runs in the same amount of innings. His last outing was cut short by rain. Before getting called up this year he started 14 games and tossed 91.1 innings in New Orleans posting a sparkling 1.77 ERA and 0.712 WHIP.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Marlins

Mets baseball is back tonight! For the first time in a few years the Mets had an exciting All-Star break. On Monday night Pete Alonso brought home the Home Run Derby championship (also securing 80% off tickets for Mets fans) and the three Mets in the All-Star game represented the team well on Tuesday night. Then the trade rumors started to swirl. We already knew that teams would be in on Zack Wheeler as a rental, but Noah Syndergaard is also drawing interest. It could be a wild ride for the rest of the month. Or we could trade away prospects for relievers ourselves and then play .500 ball for the rest of the summer.

Anyway, Jason Vargas takes the mound tonight and he could also be looked at by other teams as a trade target (although his threatening to fight a reporter did not help his value at all). Vargas is 3-4 over 15 games and 14 starts with 71.2 innings of work posting a 3.77 ERA, 4.37 FIP, 1.312 WHIP and 108 ERA+. After his complete game shutout in June he has tossed 26.1 innings over 5 games with a 4.10 ERA with opponents getting on base at a .295 clip. He hasn’t faced the Marlins since his first start of the season where he allowed 2 runs off 8 hits and a walk in 5.0 innings. The Marlins have the following stats against him:

The Mets bats will start the second half against Caleb Smith who is 4-4 over 13 games and 72.0 innings with a 3.50 ERA, 4.38 FIP, 1.041 WHIP and 117 ERA+. After missing a month of baseball, he returned last week and allowed 4 runs, 3 earned over 6.0 innings. He hasn’t faced the Mets since his first start of the season where he allowed 2 runs over 5.0 innings from 4 hits and a walk. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets! Also, earlier this week we took a look at the Mets 2019 Non-Roster Invites to Spring Training that made it to Queens this year. It’s a surprising long list.

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