The Mets played the Tigers yesterday. However if you didn’t live in the Detroit area or have MLB Gameday Audio, you would have no idea that this occurred. Anyway, Syndergaard had start number 2, deGrom continued to show promise and the Mets improved their Spring Record to 3-5-1.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• deGrom pitch another two innings without allowing a run. He allowed a hit and a walk that was it.
• Kolarek, Carreno, Walters and German all pitch no runs, one inning outings. Walters got the win and German the save.
• Lagares 2-3, R
• Clark with 2 RBI’s to win it for the Mets in the ninth

The Pessimistc Mets Fan Saw:

• that Thor is human. Syndergaard is still working on control which is why he will be a mid-season call up and not break camp with the team. This is to be expected and not really a big deal
• Omar 0-3

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The Mets and Cardinals met for a game yesterday as David Wright and Daniel Murphy got their first spring action. It also marked the first time this season that the Mets ended a game in a tie. What did our different Mets fans see?

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Brown 2-2, 2 R, HR
• Murphy 1-2, 2B
• d’Arnuad 1-2, 2B
• Recker 2-2, HR
• Montero 2 IP, 1 H, 1 R, none earned, 1 K
• Matz 1.0 IP, 1 H, 3 K
• Black 1.0 IP, 1 BB, 2 K
• Familia 1.0 IP, 1 K

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw

• Dice K allow 6 hits in 2 innings. He had three K’s but his WHIP is a huge concern for him
• Eric Young 0-3
• Chris Young 0-2
• Captain Kirk 0-3

The game showed some promise in some areas, but still hoping for some members of the outfield to step up and make it clear.

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Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Well this is it! The last post in a 22 part series look at the Mets in the upcoming season. At some point this year we will see Noah Syndegaard in Flushing hopefully dominating hitters. This is tricky but sometimes computer models can predict how these players do, so lets take a look:

MLB: 5-5, 4.30 ERA, 90.0 IP, 32 BB, 75 K, 1.33 WHIP
Oliver: 6-5, 4.00 ERA, 95.0 IP
PECOTA: 1.8-2.8, 3.74 ERA, 34.3 IP, 12 BB, 34 K, 1.25 WHIP

Average: 4.3-4.3, 4.01 ERA, 73.1 IP, 22 BB, 54.5 K, 1.29 WHIP

I think PECOTA really low balls the amount of starts that Noah will get in the majors, but Noah will also be limited to 145.0 innings this year, which means it is hard to see him pitching deep into the season. I think the rest of the averages is pretty accurate, an ERA around 4 and a WHIP around 1.3 looks about right for his rookie debut. There is of course the chance he comes in and throws absolute heat and shatters these numbers.

Should be exciting to see what he does!

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Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

The Mets closer is the second to last person in this series! Bobby Parnell is coming back from an operation and as I’m writing this on 2/21, he is behind schedule but he could still perform with the team at the start of the season. He is the anchor at the back of the rotation and the Mets will perform as he performs. Lets see what the computer think:

2013: 49 G, 50.0 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 22 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

ESPN: 68 G, 67.0 IP, 20 BB, 61 K, 34 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
MLB: 53 IP, 25 BB, 46 K, 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 30 SV
Steamer: 65 G, 65.0 IP, 28 SV, 3.14 ERA
Oliver: 60 G, 60.0 IP, 3.13 ERA
PECOTA: 64 G, 68.0 IP, 22 BB, 66 K, 28 SV, 3.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Average: 64 G, 62.6 IP, 22 BB, 58 K, 30 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Looks like the models are predicting a good season for Bobby! Lets hope it holds true.

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Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Chris Young is fighting for a starting job in the outfield. He could easily win it outright, or find himself in a platoon with Eric Young Jr, or see Lucas Duda cut into his playing time. Anyway, the Mets are hoping that Chris Young has a season similar to Byrd did last year. Lets take a look at the computers:

2013: 335 AB, 46 R, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 10 SB, .200 BA, .280 OBP, .379 SLG

ESPN: 387 AB, 53 R, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .222 BA, .308 OBP, .395 SLG
MLB: 500 AB, 64 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB, .222 BA, .300 OBP, .392 SLG
Steamer: 536 PA, 59 R, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 13 SB, .225 BA, .311 OBP, .402 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB, .217 BA, .300 OBP, .390 SLG
PECOTA: 473 PA, 414 AB, 57 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 15 SB, .219 BA, .309 OBP, .387 SLG

Average: 536 PA, 434 AB, 60.2 R, 16.8 HR, 57.6 RBI, 13.8 SB, .221 BA, .306 OBP, .393 SLG

The good news for Chris Young, and the Mets, is that all of the simulations show an increase in performance this year. It isn’t all star production, but for a Mets team riddled with offense problems, this looks alright. The Mets would like his OBP to step up a bit, which is down thanks to Young’s free swing. If he puts up the numbers in the average, plus whatever his counterpart provides, this could be a good season for the Mets outfield (with Curtis and other included).

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Half of the the Mets squad took the trip to Viera yesterday to face off with the Nationals, who won the game 11-5. Here’s what we saw:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Lagares went 1-4, still hitting .333 on the Spring
• Captain Kirk went 2-4 with a 2B as he tries to help himself from a distant position get on the team
• Campbell continues a strong camp 2-4, 2 R, 2B
• Lutz 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR…Nice.
• Mejia allowed a run, none earned over 2.0 innings of work work with one hit, two walks and three walks. Great start
• deGrom had another strong outing, 2 innings with one hit and two strikeouts

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Mazzoni had a dreadful inning allowing 7 earned runs in one inning
• Church allowed 2 earned runs over 1 inning
• Allen 0-4, .077 BA
• Brown 0-4, .091 BA

The Future Oriented Mets Fan knows that we are only a day or so away from Wright and Murphy making their spring debut. The Mets are going to the Astros today.

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