Game Preview: Braves vs Mets

The Mets completed the sweep of the Indians last night! Several days ago the Mets kicked off a tough 9-game home stand featuring the Indians, Braves and Cubs. The Mets battled each night and yesterday, the Mets scratched out two runs against a strong rookie pitcher while Noah Syndergaard flirted with a perfect game up until the rain came pouring down. Unfortunately for the Mets, the Cubs, Nationals, Cardinals, Phillies and Brewers also all won yesterday so no change to the wild card race.

Now the Mets welcome the Braves to town. Last week they dropped 2 of 3 in Atlanta, and the Mets probably need to do the opposite this weekend to keep in step with the rest of the National League. The Mets have been doing this over their last two series thanks to some unsung offensive heroes. Joe Panik hit in his 8th consecutive game last night and Wilson Ramos hit in his 16th consecutive game, tying Carlos Beltran‘s 2009 stretch.

Jacob deGrom will look to do his part in the series opener. Jacob is 8-7 over 25 starts and 155.0 innings with a 2.61 ERA, 2.80 FIP, 1.052 WHIP and 159 ERA+ (second best in his career). He’s currently leading the league in strikeouts at 194. In his last 16 games (103.0 innings) deGrom has had a 1.92 ERA and in his last 6 games he has pitched 40.0 innings with a 0.90 ERA while opponents are slashing .171/.230/.229 against him. Jacob missed the Braves last week and in 3 starts against them this year he has allowed 8 runs off 16 hits and 6 walks over 19.1 innings (3.72 ERA). The Braves have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats draw Mike Foltynewicz who is 4-5 over 14 starts and 75.1 innings with a 6.09 ERA, 5.81 FIP, 1.473 WHIP and 76 ERA+. Since returning to the rotation Mike has pitched 3 games totaling 16.0 innings with a 5.06 ERA while opponents slash a .299/.365/.493 against him. This will be his first start against the Mets in 2019, last year he held the Mets to 2 runs over 11.0 innings across two starts from 7 hits and a walk while striking out 11. The Mets have the following batting lines against Folty:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Indians vs Mets

Stroman was taken out of last night’s game early and in the 6th inning, the Mets broadcast booth put the sentiment best when they said, “this might be a game where the Mets have to empty their pen.” At some points this year that would be a curse on this team. But the Mets were able to hang on and push the game into extra innings. They gave up a run in the top half of the frame but this game wasn’t meant for Cleveland. In the bottom half the Mets scored two runs, improving to 1.5 games back of the wild card and creating the chance for a series sweep tonight.

Noah Syndergaard is 8-6 over 24 starts and 154.0 innings with a 3.86 ERA, 3.43 FIP, 1.208 WHIP and 108 ERA+. In his last 7 starts he has pitched 48.1 innings with a 2.05 ERA while opponents are hitting a .595 OPS against him. In his last four games (27.1 innings) he has a 1.65 ERA with opponents batting a .535 OPS against him. A few members of the Indians have seen Syndergaard in a game before:

The Mets bats draw the rookie in the finale, who will be making just his fifth start of his career. Aaron Civale is 1-2 over 4 games and 24.0 innings with a 1.50 ERA, 2.13 FIP, 0.958 WHIP and 318 ERA+. Before getting called up to the majors this year he tossed 13 games across Akron and Columbus, pitching a total of 72.2 innings with a 2.35 ERA and a 1.087 WHIP. For context, his career minors ERA was 3.12 and WHIP was 1.101.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Indians vs Mets

The Mets opened up their tough home stand with a come from behind trouncing of Cleveland last night. Cleveland scored a run early and a few innings later J.D. Davis made it 2-1 Mets. The Indians then scored again and the game stayed tied for a bit. Then, late in the game, the Mets scored 6 runs across two innings, sparked by a Michael Conforto bomb and the Mets never looked back.

Marcus Stroman looks to continue pushing the Mets in that direction tonight. He is 1-0 over 3 starts and 15.2 innings as a Met posting a 5.17 ERA, 5.26 FIP, 1.851 WHIP and a 82 ERA+. Overall on the season in 21 starts and 124.2 innings he has a 2.96 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.227 WHIP and 153 ERA+. Tonight he gets to face the Indians for a third time, a feat that is only possible because he got traded after the Blue Jays had two series against Cleveland. In April he allowed 3 runs off 6 hits and a walk in 6.0 innings but his last start as a Blue Jay he held the Indians to 1 run over 7.0 innings from 5 hits and a walk. The Indians have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats draw Adam Plutko who is 5-3 over 13 games and 12 starts pitching 71.1 innings posting a 4.67 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 1.192 WHIP and 101 ERA+. Because statics are funny, last year he also posted a 6.09 FIP but a 1.317 WHIP and an 82 ERA+. His last two starts have been rough allowing a combined7 runs from 15 hits and 2 walks over 12.0 innings. The only Met who has seen him in a game is Todd Frazier who is 1-1 with a double.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Indians vs Mets

The Mets start a tough home stand tonight as they welcome the Indians, Braves and Cubs to Citi Field. On Sunday the offense exploded late in the game for a come from behind win to end the road trip 3-3 and stay 2 games out of the wild card race. The big news from the weekend: Pete Alonso hit his 40th homer of the season, giving him the rookie record and putting him within 1 of tying the Mets regular season record.

Steven Matz looks to start this home stand off on the right foot (and with a left hand). He is 7-7 over 24 games and 22 starts pitching 116.1 innings with a 4.33 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.350 WHIP and 96 ERA+. After a bad start against Pittsburgh at the top of the month he has allowed 3 runs in 12.2 innings since from 9 hits and 3 walks. In his last five starts he has allowed 10 runs over 31.1 innings, a 2.87 ERA (which is even better when you remember that 5 of those runs came from one 3.2 inning start). The Indians have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Shane Bieber today. Bieber is in midst of an all-star season, going 12-5 over 26 games and 25 starts totaling 162.1 innings with a 3.27 ERA, 3.32 FIP, 1.010 WHIP and 144 ERA+. He has already thrown three complete games this year including two complete game shutouts. He has been on a roll in his last 5 starts pitching 38.0 innings with a 1.89 ERA (two of his complete games have occurred during this stretch). There are no available Mets tonight who have seen Bieber in a major league game.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Royals

The Mets look to take the series in a Sunday, afternoon rubber game against the Royals this afternoon. If they lose, they’ll lose two consecutive series on this road trip. If they win, they’ll win the series and improve to .500 for this 6 game road trip before returning home for a tough homestand against the Indians, Braves and Cubs.

Before we get into the pitchers today, how about Juan Lagares? Back on August 10th he was hitting .180/.254/.257 but he’s been on a little streak recently and is now hitting .218/.282/.303. To raise his stats that much in a short amount of time means he must really be hitting in his last 5 games. In his last 5 games, where he has played the entire game, he has 11 hits in 17 AB’s, or 11 of his 41 hits have come in the last 5 days. Tremendous. It’s a small sample size but things always feel good when Juan Lagares is doing well.

Zack Wheeler is 9-7 over 23 starts and 144.1 innings with a 4.36 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 1.275 WHIP and 95 ERA+. After back to back starts to start of August tossing 15.0 scoreless innings, things went off the rails in his last start and he allowed 5 runs over 5.0 innings from 12 hits and 2 walks. Because of the amount of turnover on the Royals roster, Alex Gordon is the only hitter on KC that he has seen in a major league game and Gordon is 1-3 with a double against him.

The Mets bats get Glenn Sparkman today who is in his first full season as a major leaguer. He is 3-8 over 23 games and 15 starts tossing 99.0 innings with a 5.45 ERA, 5.77 FIP, 1.444 WHIP and 86 ERA+. As a starter he has pitched 81.1 innings with a 5.75 ERA and a 1.402 WHIP. His last six starts are interesting to look at together. On July 16th he tossed a complete game shut out against the White Sox, holding them to 5 hits and 1 walk. In his next four starts he allowed 23 runs, 22 earned over 19.2 innings. In his last start he allowed only 2 runs, 1 earned, over 6.0 innings. He has never faced anyone on the Mets roster before.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Royals

The Mets fell to the Royals last night 4-1 as KC was able to scatter the 8 hits the Mets had in such a way to prevent runners from scoring. Thor was still effective, Brach for the first time was not effective, Diaz didn’t allow a run, and Rosario had two hits, bringing his total to 7 in the last two games. Now the Mets look to move beyond last night in the battle of Jacob vs Jakob tonight.

Jacob deGrom is 7-7 over 24 starts and 148.0 innings with a 2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.068 WHIP and 155 ERA+. His ERA+ now is his second best in his career (last year he had that insane 221) and he now leads the leagues in strikeouts at 189, translating into 11.5 K/9. Last time out was a weird one for Jacob. He allowed 3 runs over 5.0 innings, none of them earned and threw a TON of pitches in a first inning that was filled with some defensive miscues, the largest one coming from deGrom (although charged to Alonso) where he missed a throw covering first leading to three runs coming across the plate. In deGrom’s last 5 starts he has allowed 6 runs, 3 earned, over 33.0 innings which is a 0.82 ERA and opponents are posting a paltry .484 OPS. The Royals have the following numbers against deGrom:

Jakob Junis is 8-10 over 25 starts and 144.1 innings with a 4.80 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.386 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Throughout his three season, Junis has been pretty consistent on season results, posting a 104, 99, 99 ERA+ in consecutive seasons. That being said, he’s on a bit of a hot streak his last two starts, allowing 3 runs from 13 hits and a walk in 12.0 innings. In his two starts and 13.0 innings before that, he allowed 10 earned runs from 16 hits and 4 walks. There are only two Mets on the active roster who have seen Junis in a game. Todd Frazier is 0-3 with a strikeout and Wilson Ramos is 0-2 with a strikeout.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Royals

The Mets got back in the win column last night as they outhit the Braves by 10-8. Confused by the score? Are you like me and went to sleep when the game seemed like a run differential dream for the Mets? Drew Gagnon had a rough outing allowing 5 runs and the Braves were able to make the game much closer than it felt at the start. Heroes of the game include Alonso and Rosario both recording 5 hit games, Ramos with a 4 hits and Lagares breaking out with three.

Now the Mets need to keep winning to stay in pace with the Wild Card race as they head to Kansas City and who better to open up in KC then Noah Syndergaard who told the Royals he would meet them 60 ft 6 inches away. Noah is 8-5 over 23 games and 148.0 innings with a 3.89 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.209 WHIP and 106 ERA+. In his last 6 starts he has tossed 42.1 innings with a 1.91 ERA while opponents have a .219 BA, .268 OBP and .584 OPS against him. The Royals have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

The Mets bats will get a look at Mike Montgomery who was traded from the Cubs to the Royals this season. As a Royal he has made 5 starts totaling 23.1 innings with a 4.63 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.371 WHIP and 103 ERA+ which was better than his time in Chicago. As a Cub he pitched relief in 20 games totaling 27.0 innings with a 5.67 ERA, 6.22 FIP, 1.778 WHIP and 80 ERA+. One of those outings was against the Mets where he allowed 2 hits and a walk but no runs 1.1 innings of work. The Mets have the following numbers against Mike:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Braves

The Mets try to salvage their series against the Braves tonight after dropping their third game overall in a row to them last night. After a lengthy rain delay things were going alright for the Mets until the 7th inning. In the top half of the frame they finally took the lead, in the bottom half of the frame, the bullpen melted down and the Mets were left with an insurmountable lead to get ahead of.

But tonight they try to turn it around. Marcus Stroman‘s line from his last game doesn’t really match how it felt. He allowed 4 runs over 6.0 innings from 9 hits and and 3 walks while striking out 3. But three of those runs came on swing and early in the game Stroman was just dominating. This was the game the Mets would come back twice from 3 run deficits to win. Can they do it again tonight? The Braves have the following numbers against Stroman:

The Mets draw Julio Teheran who is 7-7 over 25 games and 137.0 innings with a 3.35 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.277 WHIP and 136 ERA+ (a career best). He is coming off a tremendous start against the Marlins holding them to 1 run over 7.0 innings and in his last five starts he has pitched 30.1 innings with a 2.08 ERA. He has faced the Mets three times this year and each game was quite different. In the first one he allowed 1 run over 6.0 innings, then he allowed 6 runs in 4.0 and finally 2 runs in 3.1 innings (from 5 hits and 3 walks). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Braves

The Mets are coming off back to back losses for the first time in a while as they face the Braves in Atlanta tonight. Last night the Mets offense struggled to get into gear while starting pitching, through Wheeler, struggled for the first time in a long time. This happens, let’s see what happens next. The larger concern – Jeff McNeil – left the game in the 9th inning with a hamstring problem. As of writing this at 6 AM, the Mets are planning to get McNeil an MRI at some point today.

The Mets bats will be facing Dallas Keuchel tonight. There’s some universe that the Mets signed Keuchel in the off-season as an upgrade to Jason Vargas. There’s some universe where the Mets signed Keuchel when the rotation was facing problems in late April and early May. More plausible – there’s some universe where anyone signed Keuchel in the off-season well ahead of spring training and he has a normal start to the season. We do live in the universe where none of that happened.

Keuchel is 3-5 over 10 games and 59.2 innings with a 4.83 ERA (worst since 2013), 5.23 FIP (worst since 2012), 1.358 WHIP (worst since 2013) and has a 95 ERA+ (which is actually his 5th best in 8 years). He’s coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed 8 runs from 10 hits in 3.2 innings against the Marlins. Before that he had a 3.86 ERA and the beginning of this paragraph probably looks a lot different. He has had outing that he looks like his classic self but in others, he hasn’t. This will be his first start this season against the Mets and the Mets have the following numbers against him:

Steven Matz is 7-7 over 23 games and 21 starts pitching 110.1 innings with a 4.49 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 1.396 WHIP and 92 ERA+. Matz is coming off of a strong start against the Marlins, allowing 2 runs over 6.2 innings from 7 hits and is only two starts removed from his complete game shutout against the Pirates. He was good in his first start against the Braves allowing 2 runs over 6.0 innings and then his second start he allowed 5 runs over 5.0 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Braves

The Mets and NL East reunion tour returns tonight as the Mets travel south to Atlanta. Previously: the Mets squared off against the NL East almost exclusively in April and early May, and not much since then. In the last week week they’ve had a 4 game sweep of the Marlins and took 2 of 3 from the Nationals. Now they get to play the division leaders.

Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Amazin’s tonight. He is 9-6 over 22 starts and 139.1 innings with a 4.20 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and 98 ERA+. In two starts in August he has pitched 15.0 scoreless innings holding opponents to 12 hits and a walk while striking out 12. His two starts against Atlanta have been quite different. In April he allowed 2 runs over 6.0 innings fom 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8. At the time, this was his best start of the season. In June he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned over 6.0 innings from 10 hits and 2 walks. After that start he went on a bit of a positive streak. Including tonight, all 3 of his starts against the Braves have taken place in Atlanta. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Max Fried who is 13-4 over 24 games and 22 starts with 120.1 innings of work. Throughout the season he’s posted a 4.11 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.371 WHIP and 111 ERA+. In his last five starts he has alternated terrible/below average with pretty good:

  • 5.0 IP, 11 H, 5 ER
  • 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER
  • 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER
  • 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER
  • 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER

Which puts the Mets in a tougher situation tonight if the pattern, that is probably cosmic coincidence more than anything else, holds. He faced the Mets twice in June and was pretty average, allowing 5 runs over 11.0 innings from 16 hits. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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