213 Miles From Shea

The next sentence could have been written today, in 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014 (you get the point). What do the Mets do with Wilmer Flores. He’s great against lefties, has the potential to put up strong numbers, it is unclear how he projects in the field and the Mets seem to have 10 (exaggeration) players that are similar in multiple ways. Here’s what the 2017 projections thought Wilmer would do:

2017 Stats:
110 G, 362 PA, 336 AB, 42 R, 17 2B, 18 HR, 52 RBI, .271 BA, .307 OBP, .488 SLG

Wilmer had a mixed year according to projections and reality. He had nearly the amount of at bats that the average of the projections thought he would, hit better for average but slightly worse for OBP. No one projected his slugging to be as high as it was. Projections saw him as a regression candidate in slugging from 2016, not to improve. Only Rotowire saw correctly that he would hit more homers. Baseball Prospectus saw him best from the slash line but didn’t see him nearly getting the amount of AB’s as he ended up getting.

I love baseball. I love to eat.

The Mets have made it easy the last few years to fall in love with food at the ballpark. The more ballparks I’ve been too, the more I’ve learned that the Mets are especially good at this.

These were available behind the outfield plaza in 2017. I hope they bring them back as I am sucker for Mozzarella sticks. These aren’t the best sticks at the ballpark but they’re good. Also they’re sticks on sticks so that’s always fun.

Only downside is the pepperoni is a cube at the end of the sick, but I imagine these would be difficult to make otherwise.

When I wrote the 2017 Projections Article last year for Jose Reyes, I did not expect Jose Reyes to have as major of a role on the team as he did but injuries are terrible and trades were plentiful, so we saw a lot of Jose Reyes.

Jose Reyes 2017 Stats:
145 G, 561 PA, 501 AB, 75 R, 123 H, 25 2B, 7 3B, 15 HR, 58 RBI, .246 BA, .315 OBP, .413 SLG

I was expecting Jose Reyes to get 300-350 PA’s going into the season. The projections did better than me expecting quite a bit more. In reality he got even more time than that. It’s incredible how much power he had than projected, but that’s about where the good times end. His OBP was predicted exactly and his batting average was quite a bit lower.

Only MLB.com saw him having a slugging above 400, although they over shot it, and no one saw his average being as low as it was. If the most important predictor is on base base percentage, then Baseball Prospectus did the best.

As of writing this article (1/15) Jose Reyes has not signed with a team yet. As the days go on without the Mets signing more infield help, a reunion seems more likely. Even doing somewhat better than his 2017 projections, the Mets should stay away from Reyes in 2018.

Today’s 2017 Projection Review has renewed interest – Jay Bruce! The Mets off-season was stuck in neutral until the Mets signed a 3 year, 39 million deal with Jay Bruce, a player Mets fans wanted to trade away off-season, a player who had a good year with the Mets and then got traded. A player many of us had a strong feeling, like or not, needed or not, would be back in a Mets uniform in 2018.

Jay Bruce’s 2017 Actual Stats:
146 G, 617 PA, 555 AB, 82 R, 141 H, 29 2B, 2 3B, 36 HR, 101 RBI, .254 BA, .324 OBP, .508 SLG

Jay Bruce out performed all of the major projections averages. Battiver average by 10 points, OBP by 20 points, slugging 50 points and this is due to outperforming homers by 10.

No projection saw Bruce’s power coming back so much this year, and the only one that got close (FBG) overshot his batting average by quite a bit.

Utlimately, all of the projections saw some form or recession compared to his 2016 numbers, he ended up having a better year in all major categories.

Yesterday we posted an article looking at 5 players the Mets could play at second or third in the upcoming season (Frazier, Harrison, Nunez, Cabrera, Reyes) after reading this article this morning on MLB Trade Rumors, we realized that we forgot to take a look at three also realistic possibilities: Neil Walker, Brandon Phillips and Yunel Escobar.

Out of all the players looked at in this article and the last one, Walker is the best offensively. If we were only looking at offense numbers then the Mets should be signing Walker. This would also mean the Mets would be building the same team they have had for the last couple of seasons. This also ignores Walkers recent strings of injuries and that his offense numbers should decline.

We also see from the offense data that Phillips and Escobar are no better than Reyes. As much as I don’t want Reyes to be a starting second basemen for this team, at this point a reunion feels inevitable and between Escobar, Phillips and Reyes, I would have to go with Reyes.

The argument against Reyes is his defense. Well, all of these players here fail massively defensively. Walker’s only good defensive year was 2016. In every other yera he has posted a negative UZR. Phillips used be good defensively. He has now posted a negative DRS in back to back seasons for the first time in his career, both times posting a -7. Escobar is atrocious defensively at third base. Signing Escobar would mean the Mets would have his defense at third and Cabrera’s at second. If it came down to Escobar or Reyes, it has to be Reyes. 

Looking at Walker, Phillips and Escobar my conclusion from yesterday still holds true. If the Mets had the flexibility, which they probably don’t, they should sign Frazier, acquire Harrison, move Cabrera.

Update: There’s a Part 2 Here. This includes Walker, Phillips and Escobar.

The Mets have signaled that they want to acquire a new second basemen (or maybe a third basemen). Harrison wants to be traded. Frazier, Nunez and Reyes are still available. Who should the Mets pick?

After last year, I’m ready for a change. Is changing just to change a good idea? Maybe. That argument is void of stats though and just filled with anecdotal thoughts poisoned by the Mets play over the last couple of seasons. Here we will look at the offense and defense of the 5 most likely second and third basemen for the New York Mets in the 2018 season.

The players essentially break into two tiers offensively that vary wildly by which stat you use to generate ideas of how successful a player is at the plate. If you go by runs created, then Frazier, Nunez and Cabrera are in one Tier with Nunez having both the highest wRC+ and wOBA. In this lens, Cabrera also becomes equally valuable. In this perspective, the Mets sign Nunez and run Cabrera and Nunez out to the field daily. 

From the OBP and wOBA perspective, all of these players are incredibly similar with the exception of Reyes. Here you would retain Cabrera and sign either Frazier or Nunez OR trade for Harrison. 

However, this is the Mets and their defense was atrocious last year. If the Mets are running three corner outfielders every day, then infield defense becomes even more important. Despite putting up bad defense numbers in 2016, Frazier comes out on top. It is also important to note that Reyes only played 207 innings at 2B last year with 279 at 3B. Cabrera only played 274 innings at 2B last year and 350 at 3B From both the UZR and DRS perspective, the Mets best move would be to sign Frazier, trade for Harrison and move Cabrera somehow off the team. 

The above is echoed in the WAR department. Despite being close to the other players offensively, Cabrera’s defense hurts his overall WAR. From a WAR perspective, the ideal move would be to sign Frazier, acquire Harrison and move Cabrera. 

Be careful with comparing the WAR’s of Nunez and Reyes. On the surface it looks like they are close, so close that the question of “is it really worth to spend more Nunez versus a bargain buy like Reyes” will arise. Nunez is far superior offensively. His defense is atrocious. His Def on Fan Graphs is a -3.5. Somehow Reyes got a 1.1, despite a -5 DRS at both 2B and 3B, and -15 DRS at SS. If it comes down to Reyes and Nunez, the money is worth it for Nunez. 

I almost debated not doing a reviewing projections for David Wright since he never made it back to the majors last year. Here’s what the computer models thought coming into the season:

So when reviewing his projections, it turns out his last season stats and Sporting News Projections were the best at reading the tea leaves that Wright just would not play. I assume that stat projections will be similar this year where they project Wright to put up limited numbers but still see him playing.

It brings pain, sadness and sorrow seeing this happen to the Franchise Part 2.

In about a month the focus will be on Spring Training, the Mets roster, hopes, dreams, etc and STAT PROJECTIONS. Wonderful Stat Projections. But do they pan out? Let’s take a walk down memory lane going through last year’s projections and seeing how they stood against the test of time.

His actual numbers:

74 G, 237 PA, 218 AB, 23 R, 55 H, 9 2B, 10 HR, 35 RBI, .252 BA, .305 OBP, .431 SLG

Rene Rivera, now an Angel, split time with the Mets and the Cubs last year. His slash line performed well. He hit 30 points above the projection, 25 points above OBP and almost 100 points better in slugging. The latter is due to him doubling homers vs what was projected. He was also given considerably more playing time than projected.

When looking at projections, the computers all handled Rene about the same, so they all failed about the same.

Rene is now an Angel. He would have been nice to bring back but he also doesn’t fit long or short term as a Met. (Short term only if the Mets went all in for this upcoming season).

I am rarely critical of a low-risk, high-reward signing. I think it’s in my nature. Maybe I played Pokemon and Magic the Gathering too long as a child/adolescent so I’m used to spending $2.99 on a pack of cards (please, do not inform me on what they cost now) for a chance of getting something amazing, an elusive Charizard I never caught, but being completely fine with settling for a Bulbasaur and a Weedle.

Y’all still with me?

I’ve supported the vast majority of low-risk, high-reward signings the Mets have made in the past but I haven’t completely come around yet on Adrian Gonzalez. After some reflection and contemplation while sitting in traffic on McCarter Highway in Newark, I’m starting to see through the haze why I feel this way.

I haven’t come around yet on the Jay Bruce signing yet either.

Why? I didn’t know at first for a while either. Jay Bruce is the type of player I generally love. He put up good numbers last season and he was quiet. In some parallel universe where I’m athletic and overall just amazing, I’d like to imagine I’m a baseball player like Jay Bruce (or Lucas Duda. Or Carlos Beltran).

But the Mets are like a young adult who is trying to figure out life. Their physical home is a mess and the car is just alright. Signing Bruce was like getting a new car, which is nice and almost needed, but it didn’t address the most pressing need, that their home has a huge hole in the ceiling and it’s letting in rain, snow and ground balls up the middle thanks to a limited second base defense.

Jay Bruce is nice, but it didn’t attack the most pressing need.
If Gonzalez works, it will be very nice, but it doesn’t fill the most pressing need.

In the past I’ve looked the other way but this year I find myself more cynical than ever. After every signing part of me, a growing part of my Mets-soul, feels it will be the last move the Mets will make this off-season. If the Mets off-season ends now, this is not a good allocation of resources. If the Mets acquire a 2B/3B with above average defense it will flip to a good off-season. If the Mets additionally acquire a starter pitcher for depth it will be a great off-season. We could still have a great off-season. We can also have a terrible one still.

I’m not used to be cynical yet. I’m not ready to uninspired by looking at a roster that looks the same as last year minus Neil Walker and plus Gonzalez. I want to believe and I don’t want to be this way.

Maybe a little low-risk, high-reward is what I need.

TJ Rivera on the Citi Field Scoreboard