213 Miles From Shea

I’ll take the suspense out of this article. Robles did not perform nearly the level that the computers thought he could. But you probably already knew that as you are probably pointing your hand up to the sky right now for a fly ball that’s actually a homer.

2017 Stats:
7-5, 46 G, 4.92 ERA, 29 BB, 60 K, 1.341 WHIP

The computers thought he would take a step back, but he took three of four leaps backwards last season. The Baseball Prospectus projection was closest but even they struggled to grip how much he was going to slide.

I’m very curious to read the Baseball Prospectus write up for Robles granted this slide and where he fits in the 2018 plans.

For a third straight day we look at the 2017 projections for a 2017 Met who is no longer with the team. Today is Sean Gilmartin who Cardinals claimed off waivers from the Mets back in June.

2017 Stats:
0-0, 2 G, 3.1 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 BB, 4 K, 2.700 WHIP

The real story here is if the projections saw Gilmartin get playing time. The answer is they did, with the exception of ESPN which was the closest and saw he would struggle in a limited exposure. ZiPS and FBG had him as a serviceable pitcher, but he never got the chance to show that with the Cardinals last year.

The rub, of course, is that if the Mets didn’t mismanage his options, he probably makes 5-7 starts by the end of the season when the Mets lost nearly every starter due to injury.

You know what is fun to do? And by fun I mean the exact opposite of fun? Read what I wrote about Salas before last season. I was so wrong.

Also wrong: every projection.

2017 Stats:
2-2, 61 G, 58.2 IP, 22 BB, 56 K, 5.22 ERA, 1.517 WHIP

Salas was released by the Mets in August and finished the season with the Angels. (As of 1/15 when this was written, he is still a free agent). He finished 2016 with great numbers and all of the projections saw it as not sustainable having him he regress to a 3.8 2 WRA and 1.19 WHIP.

But they were all wrong. Salas was really, really bad last year.

I love baseball. I love to eat. I love nachos.

In this, I’m not abnormal from most people.

I’m not picky with nachos either. I will eat any nachos. Nachos are great. Maybe the world needs more nachos. Maybe the Mets will play better and stay healthier if they have nachos. Wait. Forget that last part.

There are a lot of places to get nachos at Citi Field. My favorite is the Taqueria stand behind the apple. I ate half the nachos before remembering that I wanted to take a picture for an article I was going to write 6 months later. This may be a bad joke. It’s probably not. It’s hilarious.

Let’s get nachos. I’m serious.

The most important member of the bullpen last year, and the one with the best humor: Jerry Blevins.

2017 Stats:
6-0, 75 G, 49.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 24 BB, 69 K, 1.367 WHIP

Jerry’s numbers regressed slightly from 2016, but not by much. The projections were just way off of Jerry’s performance though. First, they forgot it was Terry Collins running pen, or rather, there’s no way to program Terry’s management into a computer so he was used way more often. Second, His performance was way better than projected. The best at it was ESPN but it doesn’t matter.

Bullpen pitchers I have a feeling now writing three of these projection reviews will be the most difficult for projection programs to handle.

Erik Goeddel was another member of the Mets 2017 bullpen that got used way more than thought going into the season. Only two publications bothered to give him a full preview (ESPN and ZiPS).

He won’t be back with the Mets after a third straight year of appearing in over 30 games as he signed a contract with a non-roster invite to Rangers camp.

2017 Stats:
0-1, 33 G, 29.0 IP, 5.28 ERA, 11 BB, 33 K, 1.345 WHIP

ZiPS thought he would have a solid season. ESPN not as much. Turns out ESPN was right on Erik. On a pure, did the projections get it right account, the answer is no. The two projections had him pitching a little too much and little more effectively than his numbers, despite his WHIP being lower than projected. (his FIP was 5.61 last year, so his ugly ERA was earned).

Last year I included Paul Sewald in projections even though he wasn’t on the 40 man roster. With the state of the Mets last year, it ended up being a good idea to project him since the Mets had to go deep in their reserves.

Only ZiPS bothered to project him last year:

2017 Stats:
0-6, 57 G, 65.1 IP, 4.55 ERA, 21 BB, 69 K, 1.209 WHIP

He got more major league action last than anyone expected. Ignore his ERA as his FIP was 3.74 which was better than his ERA projection (his WHIP was better too). It’s not clear exactly what his role will be next year but hopefully he uses his better than thought 2017 (where he wasn’t even projected on most websites) as experience moving forward.

Norichika Aoki has signed a 3 year deal with the Yakult Swallows yesterday, bringing the Japanese player back to Japan. Aoki was purchased by the Brewers from the Swallows in 2012. The next season he was traded to the Royals and then signed with the Giants. He then would be signed by teh Mariners, selected off waivers by the Astros traded to the Blue Jays, released, and finally signed by the Mets on September 2nd to finish the 2017 season.

At the time the Mets were desperate for outfield help (and to some degree, still are) as they traded away Bruce/Granderson, were without Cespedes/Conforto.

The next line originally said “Aoki quickly became a fan favorite” but honestly, in retrospect, it’s hard to tell.

Aoki was new. The Mets hadn’t acquired a major league player outside of Ramos to that point who wasn’t on the Mets roster previously. As we are seeing with this off-season, the idea of a “new” player is more exciting than a better player who was already with the team (example – Bruce is a fine player, but assembles the same team that the Mets have previously had).

Aoki had the Ghostbusters song as his walk-up music. Aoki was a ray of positive light for the month probably because he hit well for the Mets. He posted a .284/.371/.373 over 116 PA’s. In the season, 258 PA’s, he hit .274/.319/.402. He got on base, he scored runs, he was the player the Mets needed on a team going nowhere.

So Aoki was popular. But the team wasn’t. He was a fan-favorite on ship sinking into a lake of mediocrity, a season that fans will quiz each other about as an obscure, unmemorable year.

It was fun having Aoki on the Mets. Wishing him the best of luck on his homecoming.

It’s our last hitter in this series! Tomorrow we’ll start reviewing pitchers vs their projections. Cespedes was going to be the critical piece to last year’s success. Then the entire rotation got injured and the lineup didn’t matter as much. Once Cespedes got going last year, he took off, but this was short lived as injuries bounced him back and forth a bit before completely taking him out.

2017 Stats:
81 G, 321 PA, 291 AB, 46 R, 85 H, 17 2B, 17 HR, .292 BA, .352 OBP, .540 SLG

Cespedes would have shattered his projected numbers if he played a full season instead of a half one. By the time he was sidelined, he was hitting 20 points above his projection, getting on base 25 points higher and slugging over 40 points higher. Not a single projection thought he would get to his average and OBP from the 2016 season, let alone surpass those numbers. MLB.com gave him the best shot.

This article was written on 1/15. On 1/15 the Mets still don’t have a second basemen. Neil Walker is still a free agent. There’s the possibility a reunion occurs. This also means the Mets quite literally are putting the band back together again for 2017.

Quickly after Walker returned from injury this year, he was traded. Thus the fate of most veterans on the 2017 team.

2017 Stats:
111 G, 448 PA, 385 AB, 59 R, 102 H, 21 2B, 14 HR, .265 BA, .362 OBP, .439 SLG

Walker slid on power last year but made up for it by getting on base more. The average of the projections were pretty close to the Walker slash line nearly getting average and slugging but missing the increased walks that Walker picked up. Walker is a good example of the average of the projections matching reality rather than any particular one.