213 Miles From Shea

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

David Peterson is the Mets next top tier pitching prospect, especially since the Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay trades. Peterson is the right age and has had the right recent health history to dictate that his time is approaching. I don’t think we’ll see him this year until late in the year unless two starters are out for a significant amount of time and it makes sense to give Peterson regular reps at the major league level. (Otherwise it injury time starters will fall to Ramirez, Oswalt, Gsellman, etc).

2019 Stats: 24 G, 116.0 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

So first off, Peterson’s debut for a significant amount of time seems so unlikely that ESPN and BR didn’t even do a projection for him. The numbers make sense for everyone who did do it. He’s top tier on the Mets in terms of readiness, not necessarily in terms of stuff. Because he has a chance of making the team at some point this year, we decided it was necessary to gather his projections for this article.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Corey Oswalt did not factor into the Mets 2019 season at all. Something is going to have to go very wrong with the 2020 Mets for him to factor into this year as well. Depending on which veterans stay with the team after they get assigned to Minor League camp, the Mets are going to break camp with 6 starters, then there’s Ramirez, in camp on an NRI with Gsellman on the depth chart. After those 8 pitchers is Oswalt with Sewald. But for some reason or another, Oswalt will probably see playing time in 2020 so we wanted to do a quick projection article.

2019 Stats: 2 G, 6.2 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 2.250 WHIP, 6.8 K/9

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

There were moments in 2018 were Oswalt looked quite good, but the Mets never game him consistent or regular playing time and jerked him around between clubs. That will probably happen again in 2020 if the Mets need him. His average projection line looks serviceable as a spot starter, and the Mets would certainly be able to survive with him pitching, it’s just not ideal.

Happy deGrom day! Jacob deGrom takes the mound today as the Mets avoid playing a divisional rival team like the Nationals or the Marlins and play the Cardinals instead.

The Mets Scored More Than Three Runs!

The Mets beat the Astros yesterday 7-4 and collected 9 hits. Rene Rivera had a big day going 2-4 and Cordell also collected two hits. Yesterday we noted how Eduardo Nunez has had a good spring despite last year and he continued it yesterday, going 1-3 with a double, raising his average to .321 and his OPS to .851.

Porcello somehow allowed only 2 runs yesterday despite allowing 9 hits as he became the first pitcher to go beyond 4 innings this Spring. Payano had a good outing behind him allowing no runs in 2.0 innings.

Nimmo got hit by a pitch. So yesterday just felt very Mets.

On The Mound Today:

Jacob deGrom has only pitched one official spring training game. In that start he allowed 1 hit and struck out 2 over 3.0 innings. He’s been throwing simulated games and working on a curveball that he rarely uses. In one attempt in his last simulated game, J.D. Davis smacked it out of the park. Outside of that, deGrom seemed to have fun befuddling his teammates with his slider.

After deGrom pitches is when this day gets really interesting. Diaz, Familia and Betances are all listed to go. Diaz is trying to build off his positive outing last time out. Familia is trying to continue his positive spring and Betances is trying to show that he can be healthy and effective. It’s a massive day for the bullpen. Brach will follow them and he has had an under the radar great spring.

The Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Amed Rosario
3. Robinson Cano
4. J.D. Davis
5. Wilson Ramos
6. Matt Adams
7. Jake Marisnick
8. Ryan Cordell
9. Jacob deGrom

There’s no DH today! One of our pitchers who rake will be getting his cuts in today. The bench is real interesting though today. Guillorme is listed as he is in open competition now with Nunez for a spot on the roster. Top prospects Gimenez and Mauricio are also both listed as the Mets continue to take an extended look at them, especially at the 18-year old Mauricio who has been impressive against MLB caliber talent this spring.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Steven Matz got off to a really rough start last year Matz’s last couple of starts were quite rough. As humans, we tend to remember first and very last impressions the most. The middle part of the season, once Matz returned to the rotation, was quite good. Matz should be the fourth starter in the rotation. He’s proved he can pitch an entire season. He showed an extended stretch of good baseball. And honestly when I started writing these articles before Spring Training games started, I thought Matz was a lock for the 4th starter spot. Over the last couple of weeks the Mets brass have talked about Porcello as the 4th and then Wacha. I just can’t get behind that.

2019 Stats: 32 G, 160.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.341 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.9 WAR, 4.39 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The average stat lines also can’t get behind the idea of Matz not starting. His numbers aren’t terrific, top of the rotation type stuff, but that average line would be fine as a 4th starter. Right now, I can’t imagine Wacha or Porcello putting up a better average line than one all the projections say.

BP and ZiPS, two of the better projections for pitchers are the bullish one’s on Matz. That’s an interesting development. That’s also a good sign for Matz, if of course, the Mets allow him to start.

The Mets didn’t lose or win yesterday as they tied, again! Third time this spring! If you like strong pitching performances, yesterday was a day for you. The Mets bats will try to find themselves today against the Astros.

Yesterday:

Michael Conforto hurt his side while making a catch yesterday. He received an MRI in Florida but is heading back to New York for a further evaluation. Not a good sign right now.

Outside of that, yesterday was a mostly normal day. Walker Lockett looked good, allowing only 3 hits in 3.0 innings with two strikeouts. Surprising probably everyone, Corey Oswalt became the first Mets pitcher to toss 4.0 innings in a Spring Training game this year. He allowed 3 hits and one unearned run while striking out 5. Seth Lugo made his spring debut and looked good with a clean inning of work and Bashlor rebounded from his awful outing allowing a walk and a hit and nothing else in one inning.

The Mets only mustered 5 hits yesterday. In the good news department – Rosario had an extar base hit for a second straight day, a triple this time, raising his spring OPS to .481. Alonso who has also struggled getting hits this spring added one as well.

Pitching Today:

Rick Porcello is the start of the show today as he continues to battle Matz and Wacha for a rotation spot. In 3.0 games and 6.0 innings he has allowed 6 hits and 1 run while walking 1 and striking out 7. Pretty good. We expect him to toss somewhere between 3-4 innings today.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Robinson Cano
3. J.D. Davis
4. Wilson Ramos (DH)
5. Dominic Smith
6. Eduardo Nunez
7. Rene Rivera
8. Ryan Cordell
9. Andres Gimenez

Eduardo Nunez has been getting a lot of playing itme and he’s been makign the most of ith with 8 hits including a double and a triple in 25 AB’s, hitting .320/.393/.440. Luis Guillorme, who he is competing with, is hititng .182/.217/.227 in 22 AB’s.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

The Mets bullpen was one of the worst in the majors last year. Seth Lugo was one of the best relievers in the majors last year. That tells us two things. First, the Mets success in 2020 is dependent on Lugo having another great year. Two, Lugo put in some serious work at such a high level last year that for the Mets bullpen to still be one of the worst, the other guys in the pen must have had some really bad stats (which we know is true).

2019 Stats: 61 G, 80.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 0.900 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 2.2 WAR, 2.71 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

These stat projections seem just about inline with everyone’s typical personalities. ESPN loves to double down on good seasons, and they are way out in front in almost every category. Baseball Reference is one of the more conservative projection programs, and they still have Lugo have a good season, just a significant step from last year. BP seams like the most realistic because they’re in the middle, which is why the average line reflects their thoughts. If that’s what Lugo does, than the Mets bullpen may be in good shape in 2020.

We have to remember though the main lesson in 2019: it takes more than one good reliever to carry the team.

The Mets beat the Astros yesterday and today they look to make it two games in a row as they head to Jupiter to take on the Marlins.

Yesterday’s Highlights:

Ronny Mauricio, one of the Mets top prospects, got a little game time yesterday and he got a hit against a major pitcher. It was pretty great to see.

Back to things though that will impact the Mets in 2020 – Syndergaard looked great. He allowed back to back doubles to start off the third which turned into a run, otherwise he was perfect and he struck out 4. Gsellman is having one of his best springs yet, he added another 2.0 scoreless innings of work while striking out two. The Mets bullpen roster looks pretty filled to the top with long-reliever / spot starter types, but Ramirez on an NRI continued to make his name known yesterday adding in two scoreless innings of work while striking out 4.

Yesterday we looked at before the game how many Mets players were cold with the bats. Those players ended up having a pretty good day yesterday. Cano knocked in two hits, including a double, Alonso had two hits, Rosario went 1-3 and his one was an extra base hit. More of this please!

Lock It Down.

Walker Lockett gets the start today. As stated earlier, the Mets are really flooded with pitchers who fit his profile this year. This will be his second outing in spring this year. In his last one he allowed no runs and a walk in 1.2 innings of work. We assume he’ll go 2-3 innings today. In his first year with the Mets last year he pitched in 9 games including 4 starts over 22.2 innings posting a 8.34 ERA, 6.71 FIP and 1.721 WHIP. He had a much more down to Earth 3.82 ERA in 66.0 innings in the minors.

After Lockett, Oswalt who is competing for similar spot, is listed to go today. He’ll be joined by Lugo Bashlor, Payano, Whalen, and Gonzalez. Bashlor had a really rough go of it his last start, he’ll be looking to turn it around today.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Brandon Nimmo
3. Pete Alonso
4. Matt Adams
5. Amed Rosario
6. Jake Marisnick
7. Eduardo Nunez
8. Tomas Nido
9. Jarrett Parker

The top of the lineup looks normal for the Mets. Pete Alonso and Amed Rosario yesterday had good days at the plate, and they desparately needed one. We’ll be looking to see if they continue that today. Fermin, who has impressed as a minor league player this past week, is listed as traveling with the team today too.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Robert Gsellman last year had an exceedingly average year (as evidenced by his 0.0 WAR). That was both a good thing and a bad thing for the Mets. While the Mets bullpen was imploding, Gsellman was a fine option to go to, except, since his season was average his results were average. Essentially, he had an opportunity last year, with everything falling apart around him, to stand out and it just didn’t happen.

2019 Stats: 52 G, 63.2 IP, 4.66 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.366 WHIP, 0.0 WAR, 4.85 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

Gsellman is an interesting position this year. The Mets are going to force a way to get him on the roster, probably. Every time I write a roster for the Mets, Gsellman is the first name I end up leaving off. Signing both Wacha and Porcello means that one of them (or Steven Matz for some inexplicable reason) fall to the bullpen. Betances is a critical addition to the pen as well and Brach performed well enough last year to demand a spot in the bullpen.

When you look at Gsellman’s projections for next year – they are also exceedingly average. Both a good and a bad thing. Right now there is enough reason to believe this leaves him just slightly on the wrong side of getting a roster spot. But if anything happens to anyone before the season, then he should be on the team.

Mets Spring training keeps chugging along! The Mets dropped yesterday’s game against the Nationals and are now 5-9-2. There is only about 2.5 weeks left of games for the Mets to make some crucial decision about the back of their rotation.

Recap of Yesterday:

Yesterday the Mets saw the long awaited debut of Dellin Betances and it wasn’t so great – Dellin only recorded one out and allowed a hit and two walks and would be credited with allowing 3 runs, 2 earned to score.

The real position battle all Spring has been the last two starter spots and Matz reminded baseball pundits yesterday why he is the 4th start on the team. He dominated throughout 3.0 innings and struck out 3. Many people on MMO have been confused why Matz is in a competition for the rotation, I’m one of them. He is clearly a more optimistic option than Porcello and Wacha.

Starting Today:

Noah Syndergaard will make his third start of Spring Training today. He’s logged 5.0 innings so far allowing 3 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned while striking out 7. This is probably a good time to remember that his last start was marred by bad defensive and aggressive wind out of the stadium that kept that homer ball up. His off-speed stuff in that start looked quite good and we are looking forward to seeing more of it today.

Driving Us Batty.

No this segment isn’t about Brett Baty. Now that we are 16 games into Spring Training, it’s a good time to take a look at who has been off to a hot start and and who has been a bit cooler. A couple of regular starters have cooled of this spring, but we aren’t worried. Alonso is hitting .194/.194/.226 in 31 ABs, Conforto is hitting .214/.241/.357 in 27 AB’s and Dominic Smith is hitting .120/.185/.120 in 25 AB’s. It’s still too early to be concerned about this, plus none of them are fighting for a roster spot. Amed Rosario is off to a colder spring, with 2 hits and no walks in 21 AB’s. He’s also seen limited action to 8 games (Gimenez, for example, has been in 11).

On the other side, there are some Mets that are so hot. Maybe too hot. Nimmo is hitting .435/.500/.652 in his first 23 AB’s. McNeil, who is getting over the flu, is hitting .556/.579/.889 in 18 AB’s. A surprising hot hitter has been Patrick Mazeika who, in a small sample size of 11 AB’s, is hitting .364/.462/.909.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Like Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia had a terrible year in the bullpen last year. Before the start of the season, the Mets thought they really bolstered the pen by bringing in the shut down closer from the Mariners and Familia, the Mets old closer, back into the fold. It just wasn’t meant to be. Unlike Díaz though, Familia’s peripheral stats didn’t give us a lot of hope (higher FIP, WHIP, DRA).

2019 Stats: 66 G, 60.0 IP, 5.70 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.733 WHIP, 9.5 K/9, -0.4 WAR, 5.87 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

But maybe this year is different! And we really hope so. Familia put in a ton of work in the off-season, completely revamping his diet, dropping 30 pounds. While weight loss and baseball players don’t always correlate into performance growth, it just seems like he is healthier this spring. When this article was written he had allowed 2 hits and 2 walks and nothing else through 3 games and 3.0 innings this spring. It’s early but hopefully we are going to see the old Familia again.

The numbers from the computers, which know nothing about Familia’s health changes, seem to agree. Baseball Reference and ESPN are the only outliers (similar to Díaz) thinking that Familia will bounce back, but not by that much. Everyone else sees an old school Familia coming from the bullpen. Even taking the poorer projections in the average, if Familia produced that stat line throughout the season, the Mets bullpen would be so much better.

We are big supporters of Familia here and we really hope this is a signal that he’s going to have a year that will make us forget 2019 for all the right reasons.