Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
Steven Matz got off to a really rough start last year Matz’s last couple of starts were quite rough. As humans, we tend to remember first and very last impressions the most. The middle part of the season, once Matz returned to the rotation, was quite good. Matz should be the fourth starter in the rotation. He’s proved he can pitch an entire season. He showed an extended stretch of good baseball. And honestly when I started writing these articles before Spring Training games started, I thought Matz was a lock for the 4th starter spot. Over the last couple of weeks the Mets brass have talked about Porcello as the 4th and then Wacha. I just can’t get behind that.
2019 Stats: 32 G, 160.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 4.60 FIP, 1.341 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 1.9 WAR, 4.39 DRA
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
The average stat lines also can’t get behind the idea of Matz not starting. His numbers aren’t terrific, top of the rotation type stuff, but that average line would be fine as a 4th starter. Right now, I can’t imagine Wacha or Porcello putting up a better average line than one all the projections say.
BP and ZiPS, two of the better projections for pitchers are the bullish one’s on Matz. That’s an interesting development. That’s also a good sign for Matz, if of course, the Mets allow him to start.