213 Miles From Shea

The Mets welcome the Nationals to St. Lucie today with Steven Matz set to start the game after being delayed a few days with flu like symptoms (which also knocked out Guillorme for a few days and now McNeil). So if you were looking for baseball as an escape from virus talk, sorry!

Last Night:

The Mets had another night Spring Training Game! It was also the second night game that wasn’t televised in the NYC Metro area. The Astros beat the Mets with a walk-off in the ninth inning against Yefry Ramirez who was signed in June with the Mets on a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Yefry is not the real story for the Mets last night.

The real story, as it will be all spring when Wacha, Porcello or Matz pitch, is the battle for the back of the rotation. Wacha allowed 5 hits and a walk leading to his first Spring Training run in 2.2 innings of work. Kevin Smith, a rising prospect in the Mets system, turned in his first strong Spring Training appearance of the year allowing a hit and nothing else over 2.0 innings of work.

As for the bats, the Mets did didn’t get on base a lot last night, with Nimmo being start getting 2 hits in 3 trips, raising his OPS to 1.030. Johneshwy Fargas, the cycle hitter from the previous game, later pinch ran for Nimmo and swiped two bags, bringing his spring training total to 5.

On the Mound Today:

It’s the return of Steven Matz! I felt disrespected for Matz two days ago. The official MLB account tweeted out an image of the Mets and Dodgers rotation asking “Who is Better” and they didn’t even list Matz as a starter on the Mets! This will be Steven’s third spring training game. So far he has tossed 3.0 innings allowing 1 run off a homer, and 2 hits total. Depending on stamina (he is recovering from a flu-like bug), he should go about 3 innings or so today.

The Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Robinson Cano
3. Michael Conforto
4. Jake Marisnick (DH)
5. Dominic Smith
6. Eduardo Nunez
7. Tomas Nido
8. Andres Gimenez
9. Johneshwy Fargas

Fargas is getting a longer look now after his play the last couple of days. He went from hitting for the cycle to stealing two bags last night. That definitely perks interest. He’s competing with Cordell and Parker on the outfield depth chart.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Edwin Diaz really struggled last year for the Mets. That’s an understatement. The dominate closer on the Mariners came over an pretty much struggled with the long ball right away. Maybe it was the juiced ball. Maybe it was the stitches and his slider. Maybe it all just snowballed in his head. It was just frustrating for him last year. Díaz’s stuff was still electric last year, as evidenced by his 15.4 K/9. He would strike out the side but allow go-ahead homers in the same inning.

2019 Stats: 66 G, 58.0 IP, 5.59 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.379 WHIP, 73 ERA+, 15.4 K/9, 2.95 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

As expected, projections see him returning to Earth this year, which makes sense. His stuff is too good for him to be that bad again this year. It makes no sense to move him, at his lowest baseball value in his career. Hopefully he can put things together in the right order this year and get his confidence back. If he puts up a year shown by the projection lines, the Mets will be in good shape. It is interesting to note how the vast majority of the projections are grouped together with him being dominate and ESPN and BR are the outliers. ESPN is usually bullish on players putting up the best seasons of their careers. BR is usually the exact opposite but they’re numbers are far off the rest.

It will make for a good review in the fall, that’s for sure.

Recapping Yesterday:

The Mets and Cardinals entered yesterday’s game each with a win-loss record of 5-7 and they left with a win-loss record that was the same. Spring Training Baseball! For the Mets it was their second tie of the spring.

The most notable story from yesterday’s game came from a Non-Roster Invitee, Johneshwy Fargas who hit for the cycle! Raising his small sample batting average to .350 and his OPS to 1.030 for the spring. Fargas is still a long shot to make the Mets roster out of camp but performance like this at least enters him into Spring Training lore.

For a game without many regular starting hitters, there was quite a bit of office. First, Pete Alonso, who has been struggling to hit consistently this spring, went 2-3. Jarrett Parker also went 2-3 with a homer. It was also a big day for the for the catching depth chart. Nido had an extra base hit (he’s been struggling this Spring hitting .167/.481 OPS) and Mazeika hit a homer. Mazeika has not been struggling hitting and his homer in his only AB of the day raised his small sample size OPS to 1.660.

Most pitchers yesterday had a good day, which is surprising when you see the Mets and Cardinals tied at 7-7. Porcello continued his strong spring with 3.0 innings of shutout baseball, David Peterson allowed a hit and 3 walks but no runs over 2.0 innings and Gonsalves added two innings of shutout baseball. The problems came for two pitchers who are trying to make the last spot of the roster. Bashlor imploded allowing 3 homers and 7 hints over 0.2 innings, leading to 6 runs. Blackham had his first bad outing of the spring allowing a run on 3 walks and only recorded one out.

Getting Ready for Tonight:

The Mets and Astros will play anight game today featuring Michael Wacha for the Mets. In 2 games and 5.0 innings this spring, Wacha hasn’t allowed any runs and allowed only 3 hit sand 3 walks. He declared himself a starter after one of his starts. Since then Matz has been great and Porcello has been as well so the pressure is on.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo
2. Pete Alonso
3. Michael Conforto (DH)
4. Wilson Ramos
5. Amed Rosario
6. Eduardo Nunez
7. Jarrett Parker
8. Ryan Cordell
9. Luis Guillorme

Looks like your typical road game Spring Training lineup for the 2nd week of Spring Training. There’s a good mix of regular starters, hopeful regular bench players (hello Guillorme!) and a few players trying to break onto the roster by the end of camp.

It looks like Parker is getting rewarded for his second homer in spring with a start today. He is directly competing with Ryan Cordell on the Mets depth chart. Overall in spring Parker is hitting .235/.316/.588 over 19 PA’s. Cordell has seen a bit more playing time with 25 PAs and is hitting .240/.240/.400.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Last year this article was not what we were expecting it would be. In 2018, Jacob deGrom put up, what Baseball Prospectus called, “video game numbers”. I agree. The only time I’ve ever seen stats like that was when I made a character in MLB the Show 2000-something when I was in high school and turned off my PSP after bad games to erase a bad perforance. Jacob was that good in 2018.

But the projections before his 2019 season didn’t agree and showed major regressions. But deGrom put up amazing numbers again and ran away with the Cy-Young for a second straight year. This year the projections are buying into deGrom. BP bought into deGrom so much that he’s the cover image of the 2020 annual, a gigantic honor that only a few players have received (2018 was the first annual to feature a player).

2019 Stats: 32 G, 204.0 IP, 2.43 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 0.971 WHIP, 11.3 K/9, 7.3 WAR, 2.27 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

Those numbers are amazing. Those numbers are what we expect from deGrom. The most difficult thing to project for deGrom, or really anyone, is WAR. Jacob had a 9+ WAR in 2018 and a 7+ WAR in 2019. I haven’t seen a Met yet though, while doing these projections for the last month, have a projected WAR of 6, which deGrom gets twice from BP and Steamer. BP of course, is usually more conservative on projections.

I feel like I take deGrom for granted on the Mets. Here’s to another year of showing the league what an ace can do!

The Mets are coming off another win as they look to make it two in a row today against the Cardinals!

Recap of Yesterday:

The Mets collected 8 hits yesterday and the pitching shut down the Cardinals as they won by a score of 4-1. McNeil was star of the show again for the offense, he was the only hitter who had two hits and one of two players with a double (Conforto was the other).

The real story out of yesterday’s game was Marcus Stroman who pitched 3 innings of 1 hit, 1 walk ball while striking out 4. He looked sharp. Erasmo Ramirez, in Mets camp as deep starting depth had a solid two inning no run performance and has lowered his Spring ERA to 1.50. Daniel Zamora who is battling for a bullpen spot had another strong outing of shutout baseball, keeping his his ERA at 0.

On the Mound Today:

My attention today is on the pitchers. First, Rick Porcello starts and is probably slated for around 3 innings of work. He is still competing with Matz and Wacha. In his first 2 games he has pitched 3.0 innings allowing an earned run off 4 hits while striking out 3.

Edwin Diaz is also listed as available today. After a poor spring debut where he allowed 2 runs off 3 hits in an inning, he was much more settled down in his last outing where he worked around a double and allowed no one to score.

Rounding out the Mets available pitchers today are Wilson, Peterson, Blackham and Bashlor. Wilson has been off to a great start to Spring, allowing no runs in his first two outings. Bashlor hasn’t allowed any runs in 3 outings, scattering 3 hits as he competes for the last bullpen spot. Blackham is in game on an NRI and has pushed himself into the conversation for last bullpen spot, allowing only 1 hit and 2 walk in 3 games so far. Finally, David Peterson is one of the Mets top starting pitching prospects and we are just excited to see what he can do again today.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

The Mets signed Brach in the middle of the season after the long time Oriole was struggling in his first stint with the Cubs. Even though he only pitched in 16 games and 14.2 innings in Queens, the tri-state native was a different pitcher on the Mets and impressed enough that the Mets signed him again in the off-season. Did the Mets catch lightning in a bottle? Right now Brach is battling for a bullpen spot, one that looks like is his to lose. There’s reason to feel that the Mets may have made a smart move here.

2019 Stats: 58 G, 54.1 IP, 5.47 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 1.620 WHIP, 9.4 K/9
2019 Mets: 16 G, 14.2 IP, 3.68 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.227 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 0.3 WAR, 3.78 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

Most projections see Brach have a down year compared to his career stats, but a better year than his total year in 2019. If he puts up the average line in a full year with the Mets, I think most of us will be happy. That would be a successful year for him in the role that the Mets have in mind for him. For Brach and the Mets, it’s more than just Brach. If Diaz, Familia, Lugo and Betances are all who we think they can be, then Brach’s line here is just gravy for the Mets. If the Mets need Brach to be a stopper more and more because of problems elsewhere in the pen, then this could be a flash point for a team vying for a playoff spot.

We like the Brach signing. We like local guys playing for the team. And it helps that my Mom, a huge Oriole fan, has also been talking positively about Brach for years. I guess I have tilted view of him now.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

It’s fitting that Tim Tebow is the last entry in this series*. (Not by design, I just go down the NRI page on Mets website meaning I go alphabetically by position – pitchers, catchers, infielders, outfielders).
*Article was written on 2/21 – By the time this article posts its possible the Mets make another NRI signing and they’ll be previewed here. Last year they did this with Carlos Gomez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

I’m going to start off with the opinion I’ve held now for the last two springs when I profiled Tebow. I’ve come around to liking him on the Mets. It has nothing to do with his baseball talent, but him being an ambassador to the game. Right now the Mets don’t really have a lot of outfielders at the upper part of the system that he is blocking, so his existence on the Mets isn’t causing harm. I’ve seen him play twice in the minors (Columbia and Binghamton) and both times fans absolutely adore him. He brings excitement to park at a time when Minor League baseball is fighting for its life (unfairly) against a commissioner that just doesn’t get it. So I’m all for players that bring people out to the ballpark. Now onto the baseball stuff.

His baseball reference page is hilarious if you look at the Age Difference column. After signing with the Mets in 2016 they sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he was 5.7 years older than the average player. In 2017 he was 7.5 years older than the average player in Columbia (he was literally a full grown man who played in the NFL playing against way younger men who were still growing, it was a sight to see in terms of size comparisons), and 6.2 years older in St. Lucie. He was 5.7 years older than the average player in Binghamton and only 4.1 years older than the average player in Syracuse.

Now Tebow made some noise in 2018. Before breaking his hand he hit .273/.336/.399 and looked on pace to go to AAA ball by the end of the season. Last year in Syracuse was not kind to him, in 264 PAs he hit .163/.240/.255. But he loves the game and he is back at it for another season. We wish him luck and I’m sure we’ll see him on every SNY/WPIX broadcast during Spring Training some how.

The Mets play the Cardinals at home today before they head over to Jupiter tomorrow to play them again! Because it’s spring training. Here’s hoping another team eventually decides to move to the East Coast of Florida in the future.

What Happened Yesterday:

The Mets played the Marlins (shocker) and lost 6-1. But it’s spring training and the score is hiding the details of how the Mets really performed. Syndergaard’s line looks messy – 2 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, over 3.0 innings but according to people who were able to watch the game, the defense behind him was quite shaky, leading to the runs, and the homer he allowed was very much a wind assisted homer. He was getting swings and misses on pitches which led to 5 strikeouts. Brach and Familia also had great days in the bullpen allowing no runs (neither has allowed a run all Spring) and despite allowing two hits, Sewald also didn’t allow a run (and he hasn’t allowed an earned run all spring either).

The offense was quiet yesterday except for McNeil and Gimenez. Jeff had two hits including a homer and Gimenez had his second double of the spring.

On The Mound Today:

Marcus Stroman will make his third start of spring today and probably pitch around 3 innings. SO far he has pitched 3.2 innings over 2 games allowing 4 hits and 2 runs from 2 homers, 2 walks and has struck out 3. Scheduled to pitch behind him are Erasmo Ramirez, Daniel Zamora, Chasen Schreve and Stephen Nogosek. Ramirez and Schreve are in camp on Non-Roster Invitations. Zamora and Nogosek are part of the group of bullpen pitchers competing for the last spot in the pen. Zamora so far has been impressive in Spring allowing 1 hit and nothing else while striking out 4 in 3.0 innings over 3 games. Nogosek has had some bumps – allowing 2 runs from 2 hits including a homer in 2.2 innings over 3 games.

At the Plate:

There’s no one off to a hotter start right now than Jeff McNeil. IN his first 15 AB’s he’s hitting .533/.563/.800, obviously not sustainable, but he’s hot now. Here’s hoping he stays hot. Nimmo, who lost significant time last week due to medical testing in 14 Ab’s is hitting .357/.471/.429. Most impressive this spring has been top propsect Andres Gimenez who is hitting .333/.400/.611 in 8 games and 18 AB’s. The main knock on him has been “can he hit for power?” He added a leg kick and now he’s breathing down Rosario’s neck who hasn’t had a hit yet this Spring over 14 AB’s.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

We are done with the hitters! On to the pitchers! The first pitcher we are going to take a look at is Dellin Betances, newly signed off an injury year to bolster the bullpen. We have to give credit where it’s due – we talked a lot this off-season about if the Mets were serious about competing and spending money they Betances should be a risk near the top of their list. The Mets took the risk and we couldn’t be more excited.

2019 Stats: 0.2 IP, 2 K
2018 Stats: 66 G, 66.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 1.050 WHIP, 1.7 WAR, 2.15 DRA

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

For the most part projections look spot on Betances, that programs who projected him look at him having a full season, worse than he has been but way better than what the Mets had at the back of their bullpen last year. With questions around the 2019 years of Diaz and Familia, Betances feels like a must have to pair with Lugo.

We don’t know what to expect for Betances in reality, coming off an injury year is always a mystery. It would be completely terrible luck though for all of Familia, Diaz and Betances to not pitch in 2020 like their career numbers suggest.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Jarrett Parker continues an interesting trend for the Mets. Outside of Tim Tebow, who doesn’t count, no outfielder drafted by the Mets/first signed by the Mets received and NRI this year. Interesting.

Jarrett Parker was a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft by the Giants. He would later make his major league debut in 2015 and stayed a Giant until the end of 2018’s spring training when he was released. The following December he signed with the Angels and now he’s a New York Met.

His first taste of the majors was amazing. In 54 PAs in 2015 he hit .347/.407/.755. The next season he saw more time getting 151 PAs hitting .236/.358/.394. Things got crazy for Parker in 2017. He ran into a wall breaking his collar bone on April 15th which knocked him out until August. He still found time to get 177 PA’s hitting .247/.294/.416. He saw very little time with the Angels at the major league level last year going 0-12 with 3 walks in 15 trips to the plate.

Jarrett Parker did have a successful season in AAA last year hitting .266/.394/.535. The Mets in general have a crowded outfield at the major level that has players who are outfielders playing in the infield or wherever they can get ABs. If something happens to someone and the Mets feel that need another outfielder on the bench, then I think right Parker is the first one up. All 5 outfielders on the 40 man roster will be on the active roster if healthy so there is no one else ahead of him. The question will be can the Mets cobble an outfield together, in case one player goes down or Cespedes starts the season on the DL without Parker on the roster. I think the answer to that is yes (especially if Adams gets a long look in the outfield this spring).