213 Miles From Shea

The Mets enjoyed the rare off day in Spring Training yesterday after they split games against the Nationals and Marlins on Sunday. With a split squad day heading into an off-day, a lot of starters saw action and there’s quite a lot to catch up on before looking at today’s game.

Sunday Recap:

The main headline from Sunday was Jacob deGrom. Jacob made his spring debut and he was the first Met this spring to pitch 3.0 innings. He allowed 1 hit and struck out two and that was it. He was himself. In a better sign for the Mets, the regular relievers that followed him all had great days. Diaz allowed a double but nothing else as he lowered his Spring ERA to 9.00. Justin Wilson continued his fantastic spring. This time he struck out the side in one inning of work. Tyler Bashlor, trying to make it into the bullpen from the start of the season, allowed two hits but didn’t allow either of them to score. The only likely member of the 26-man roster to pitch in the other game did great. Wacha became the second Mets starter to throw 3.0 scoreless innings. He allowed 2 hits and a walk and as of right now everyone battling for that last rotations spot is doing great.

Things weren’t so great with the bats against Miami on Sunday. The Mets only mustered three hits, two of them from Eduardo Nunez and one from Ryan Cordell who has a .700 OPS in a small sample size this spring. Things were different in St. Lucie where Jeff McNeil had two hits and walk, raising his small sample size batting average to .500 and his OPS to 1.120. Robinson Cano had a double and Michael Conforto hit a homer on his birthday.

On the Mound today:

Noah Syndergaard is schedule to start the game for the Mets today, probably aiming for 3.0 innings of work. In his first outing he allowed a hit and struck out 2. He’s scheduled to be followed by Gsellman, Familia, Brach and Sewald. Out of that group, Familia has lock on a roster spot and Brach really has to self-destruct to lose his. Gsellman is on the bubble right now and Sewald is on the wrong side of the bubble – so important outings for both of them.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Brandon Nimmo
3. Robinson Cano
4. Pete Alonso
5. Michael Conforto
6. Wilson Ramos
7. Amed Rosario
8. Dominic Smith
9. Jake Marisnick (DH)

You could make the argument that this is the starting lineup, maybe not necessarily in this order, for the Mets when J.D. Davis is out and the Mets have a DH.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Before the 2018 season the Mets were seriously considering signing Nunez, but instead went with Frazier on a two year deal. Eduardo Nunez in that time went from an on-base machine to a player who just lost his way to first base entirely. He’s going to try resurrect his career with the Mets this Spring.

2019 Stats: 174 PA, 167 AB, 2 HR, .228/.243/.305, -1.5 WAR, 59 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

Overall the projections see him bouncing back a bit, but no where near the numbers that would suggest that Nunez gets regular or even back up playing time. We also have to consider what playing Nunez in Queens means – no Guillorme. Guillorme has the defensive skills and while it may be a stretch for him to put up numbers close to this Nunez 2020 projection line, Luis will make up for it with his glove.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Yesterday I made a sassy joke that the Mets have too many corneroutfielders in camp. Which is still true, so today’s NRI is for their only Centerfielder in camp not on the 40-man roster (at least when this article was originally written on 2/21), Johneshwy Fargas.

Fargas was drafted by the Giants in the 11th round of the 2013 draft (which coincidentally was the same round and draft that yesterday’s NRI preview player was selected in, Ryan Cordell). Fargas will be 25 this season and has played in pretty much every level except AAA since being drafted and has played in the Puerto Rico league almost every off-season. (Worth noting the Mets have already added him to Syracuse’s roster).

He’s coming off of a solid year in AA ball, his last year where he was going to be the average age of the league, hitting .249/.325/.334, which is right around his career minor league line of .255/.331/.342. He’s always hit worse in the Puerto Rico Winter League, this year hitting .207/.258/.293, which is a dip in OBP and a bump in power from his career winter hitting line of .213/.280/.272.

The Mets didn’t make this signing because of his bat. They made this signing because they are thin at center, especially defensive types. While I don’t expect to see Fargas at Citi Field this year, he’s way too far down the outfield depth chart, grouped with Cordell and Parker right above Tebow, it’s the Mets so just never know.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

The Mets signing of Matt Adams signals that they are worried about Jed Lowrie‘s health coming into the 2020 season, which makes sense. Last year Adams was a solid bat with pop for the Nationals, but not a player who got on base a lot. He’ll be fighting for a spot on the 40 man roster this spring with the Mets as he’s here with an NRI.

2019 Stats: 333 PA, 310 AB, 20 HR, .226/.276/.465, 0 WAR, 85 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

His projections play close to his 2019 stats, that he won’t get on base a lot and he’ll have a lot of pop. Now the projections are all over the place when it comes to playing time, which makes sense, that’s difficult to predict. Personally, if this is the stat line he brings, I rather the Mets just go with Dominic Smith who will play the same positions as Adams. Carrying both Smith and Adams probably squeezes out Luis Guillorme who is more valuable defensively than both Smith and Adams + Smith just seems better for the aura of the Mets and is still developing as a hitter.

The day before the first Spring Training game we wrote an article looking at the Mets 26-man roster. (You can read it here). In the article we concluded that if one of Jed Lowrie and Yoenis Cespedes was not able to play by Opening Day, than Luis Guillorme would make the team. We also thought that Matz and Porcello would start and Wacha would be the long-man in the pen. Finally that the battle for the last bullpen spot would come down to Drew Smith, Tyler Bashlor and Daniel Zamora. Now that the Mets have played baseball for 8 days, let’s take a look.

Injury Notes:

Seth Lugo pitched off a mound today, a good sign that his toe is healing. J.D. Davis has no timetable for returning since jamming his shoulder, but the team isn’t acting like it’s serious. Brandon Nimmo was sent for additional testing with his heart but he’s fine and has played fine since the additional tests. Cespedes had a press conference that he’s aiming for mid-March for baseball games and that he’s on track for Opening Day. Who knows about Jed Lowrie. Still a mystery.

Rotation Notes:

The first week has added more confusion to the back half of the rotation. All of Matz, Porcello and Wacha have looked good so far this Spring. The Mets announced that maybe Matz and Wacha do some form of time share as a fifth starter. Wacha’s response after his first start was that when he signed he was told he was a starter. Matz said after his second start that he’s a starter. So we are no where closer to a conclusion here.

Bench Notes:

Luis Guillorme had a good week and showed plenty of glove. His main competition for the active roster is Eduardo Nunez who has also been getting a lot of playing time. I don’t see any evidence right now that Guillorme’s spot is in jeopardy. It’s also early in the Spring. If Cespedes starts the year on the DL, Ryan Cordell has made a strong case in Spring so far that he should be considered as a back up.

Bullpen Notes:

Bashlor has thrown 3.0 innings of scoreless baseball with 3 hits and 2 strikeouts. Zamora has thrown 3.0 innings of scoreless baseball with 4 strikeouts. In addition Blackham on an NRI has been impressive throwing 3.0 innings (with a hit and two walks). It’s still way to early to figure out where the bullpen race is heading.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

You know what the Mets don’t have enough of in camp? Corner Outfielders! So many centerfielders – but can anyone play right?

Sorry for the sass. Obviously the Mets have a ton of corner outfielders in camp, and some corner outfielders learning to become centerfielders. That being said, the Mets burned through than NRI corners last year due to a variety of reasons. So while it seems unlikely right now Ryan Cordell will be in Queens, if it was last year, he would have been.

Cordell was drafted by the Rangers in the 11th round of 2013 and was traded in September of 2016 to complete a waiver wire deal in August of 2016 that saw Jonathan Lucroy go to the Rangers. Lewis Brinson was also part of this deal who the Brewers would later trade to Miami.

Speaking of later trades and familiar names, at the 2017 deadline the Brewers traded Cordell to the White Sox for Anthony Swarzak. You remember him, right?

Anyway Cordell would go on to make his major league debut with the White Sox and play parts of two seasons before becoming a free agent and signing with the Mets.

2018 White Sox: 40 PA, 37 AB, HR, .108/.125/.216
2019 White Sox: 97 G, 247 PA, 217 AB, 7 HR, .221/.290/.355

Last year he was up for quite the period of time and showed he has pop but not much else in terms of hitting at the major league level. It is worth noting before his callup last year he was hitting .275/.327/.471, so pretty well and in AAA over three seasons he has hit .266/.323/.451 so he’s starting to become a prototypical Quad A player.

So let’s see what Spring brings for him his year. If anything, reading his transactions record was a fun, trivia laced adventure.

The Mets won back to back games for the first time this Spring improving their (meaningless) record to 3-5. Today is a split squad day with half the team going to the Marlins and half the team waiting for the Nationals to come to them. If the Mets sweep today, they’ll be at .500. Which of course doesn’t mean anything but losing isn’t fun either.

About Yesterday:

The Mets traveled to West Palm to take on the Astros and from the radio broadcast it sounded like a lot of Mets fan made the trip, making their voices heard against the Astro players. For the first time in several days a Met had two hits on the day thanks to Max Moroff who is trying to make the roster. Both were doubles and thanks to the small sample size of Spring Training, he now has a .819 OPS. Nimmo also ripped a double at the start of the game bringing his small sample size OPS to 1.100.

The real story of the day yesterday was the pitching. Matz had 2.0 innings of shutout baseball allowing 1 hit and nothing else as he continues to battle for a spot in the rotation. Then he was followed by several prospects who all had themselves a day. David Peterson allowed 1 run on 3 hits but struckout out 3 over 2.0 innings. Kilome, acquired in the Cabrera trade a couple of seasons ago, had a shutout inning of work to balance out his performance from earlier int he week. Humphreys had a clean inning of no hits, runs or walks. Finally Uceta struck out two in a clean inning of work to end the game. It really was a great day for the farm system.

On the Mound Today:

The big story of the day is Jacob deGrom. He threw a simulated game earlier in the week and will take the mound for the first time today against the Nationals. He’s coming off of back to back Cy Young years and there’s not much more that can be said about how great he has been. Definitely the reason to watch the home broadcast today.

On the road Michael Wacha will make his second start to Spring. Porcello and Matz each had great second outings this week. Wacha had the more impressive debut of the three, allowing 1 hit and no walks over 2.0 innings while striking out 2. He looks to build his case for being the fifth starter today.

Many Players Batting Today:

Against Miami on the road:

1. Amed Rosario
2. Eduardo Nunez
3. Dominic Smith
4. Jake Marisnick (DH)
5. Tomas Nido
6. Ryan Cordell
7. Max Moroff
8. Jake Hager
9. Johenshwy Fargas

At home against the Nationals:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Brandon Nimmo
3. Robinson Cano (DH)
4. Pete Alonso
5. Michael Conforto
6. Wilson Ramos
7. Luis Guillorme (2B)
8. Jarrett Parker
9. Andres Gimenez

There’s nothing too surprising here. Amed Rosario is the lone regular starter that is in the lineup against the Marlins on the road and he’s flanked by a ton of guys trying to get in on the roster like Cordell who has been impressive throughout the first week of play and Moroff who had a big day yesterday. Several regular back-up/bench players are also with that squad today with Dominic Smith, Marisnick and Nido.

At home the roster looks like what you expect. The top 6 batters are all regular starts for the Mets, Guillorme is still fighting for a bench spot, Parker continues to get a long look this spring and the top prospect gets to stay home. Gimenez had an excellent first week of Spring and dating back to the middle of last year to now has really shown hitting development. Rosario is clearly the starter right now but Andres is trying to make us question that.

Let’s Go Mets!

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Rene Rivera, who only had a cup of coffee with the Mets last off-season, is back in camp on a NRI deal to try to break onto the roster and get to Queens. He’ll need to play better than Tomas Nido. Rivera is the most likely candidate to upset Nido for his roster spot, although that is quite unlikely. What is likely though – Rene coming to Queens at some point this season. Unless the Mets need a long term roster fill in that would cause the promotion of someone like Ali Sanchez, Rivera should be the next one to get that call.

2019 Stats: 20 PA, 17 AB, HR, .235/.350/.412, -0.1 WAR, 91 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

I think it’s highly unlikely that Rivera makes any of his playing time numbers, but his slash line seems like a safe prediction for him. His OPS projection is a solid 50 points better than Nido’s heading into the season. It feels like something bad has to happen to the Mets first for Rivera to see any sort of substantial playing time in 2020.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

There are some baseball players that seem destined to become Mets. Generally it’s due to someone in the organization liking them, failing to acquire them in a trade and then failing to acquire them in free agency. At that point the self-fulfilling prophecy is born that this player is going to be a Met at the twilight of their career.

We actually wrote an article after the 2017 off-season about Eduardo Nunez because we were that sure that the Mets were going to be that cheap that he was going to be signed. It was between him, Reyes, Cabrera, Frazier and Harrison. You can read it here. The Mets surprised us and went with Frazier and at the time we weren’t completely down on the idea of Nunez. He just seemed inevitable and unexciting. But since then he has seen major regression in hitting:

2017: 491 PA, .313/.341/.460
2018: 502 PA, .265/.289/.388
2019: 174 PA, .228/.243/.305

It’s been a steep fall for Nunez recently. To make the team he needs to play well enough in Spring that he gets a 40-man spot and somehow edges out Luis Guillorme who should see regular time as a back up infielder, the spot Nunez is going for. Nunez’s career is declining, and he had a lot of success. The Mets tend to have a thing for playing aging middle infielders with declining hitting abilities more than they should, and it would be a shame for Guillorme to have to step aside for Nunez.

I’m going to be optimistic here, outside of a terrific spring that surprises everyone, I think Guillorme holds onto his spot on the bench and even if he doesn’t, I don’t think it’s going to happen due to Nunez.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Last season was a weird one for Tomas Nido. He wasn’t supposed to be the back up catcher, that was supposed to be Travis d’Arnaud. But that failed, and then the whole situation with Mesoraco failed and the Mets were left with Nido. Nido had the opportunity for a second season in a row to make his name known but he didn’t do with his bat.

Now he was preferred by multiple pitchers who requested that Nido catch them. And that’s great for Nido and is going to be a theme going into this season. The problem is he had such a bad season at the plate with a -0.7 WAR and a DRC+ that made him 42% worse than the average hitter in the league.

2019 Stats: 144 PA, 136 AB, 4 HR, .191/.231/.316, -0.7 WAR, 58 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The Mets did not go out to get another catcher and the catchers in camp are not going to give Nido a tremendous run for his money. If Nido can be better than Rene Rivera and David Rodriguez, then he’ll be on the team next year.

For what it’s worth, the computer programs see Nido taking a positive. Not a tremendous one, but they do have him breaking the .600 OPS plane which is huge. He’s not the worst behind the plate, he’s better than the other options the Mets have and it was clear from about the middle of the off-season on that the Mets weren’t going to try to replace him so here we are going into 2019 with Nido backing up Ramos.