Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.
David Peterson is the Mets next top tier pitching prospect, especially since the Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay trades. Peterson is the right age and has had the right recent health history to dictate that his time is approaching. I don’t think we’ll see him this year until late in the year unless two starters are out for a significant amount of time and it makes sense to give Peterson regular reps at the major league level. (Otherwise it injury time starters will fall to Ramirez, Oswalt, Gsellman, etc).
2019 Stats: 24 G, 116.0 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 9.0 K/9
(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)
So first off, Peterson’s debut for a significant amount of time seems so unlikely that ESPN and BR didn’t even do a projection for him. The numbers make sense for everyone who did do it. He’s top tier on the Mets in terms of readiness, not necessarily in terms of stuff. Because he has a chance of making the team at some point this year, we decided it was necessary to gather his projections for this article.