2017 Projections Review – Jeurys Familia

2017 was a rough year to project pitchers in the Mets bullpen whether it was due to injury or misuse by a manager. Familia falls into multiple categories. he lead the league in games finished in 2015 and 2016 and came into 2017 injured and suspended. Ultimately he would under-perform compared to projections.

Jeurys Familia
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 77.2 3-4 2.55 31 84 1.21
Projections
MLB.com 72 3-3 2.63 25 77 1.17
Steamer 65 3-3 3.18 24 70 1.22
ZiPS 76 2.96 28 80 1.197
ESPN 3-4 2.75 64 1.14
Baseball Prospectus 39.2 2-2 2.55 42 1.28
Sporting News 51 2 2.65 17 57 1.16
NBC Rotoworld 53.2 3-3 2.85 18 59 1.19
Rotowire 60 3-4 2.70 18 65 1.133
Baseball America 78 3 1.96 24 70 0.97
FBG 2017 50 4-4 2.89 17 52 1.16
Average 60.4889 2.8-3.3 2.71 21.38 63.60 1.16

2017 Stats:
1-1, 26 G, 24.2 IP, 4.38 ERA, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.459 WHIP

The computers assumed that Familia was going to pitch a whole season, which we already knew would be wrong thanks to the suspension. Even with that, he fell back more than any computer thought he would. When I read the Steamer projection, I thought they were way off base but they ended up being the closest to reality.

Hopefully 2018 will be better.

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