2017 was a rough year to project pitchers in the Mets bullpen whether it was due to injury or misuse by a manager. Familia falls into multiple categories. he lead the league in games finished in 2015 and 2016 and came into 2017 injured and suspended. Ultimately he would under-perform compared to projections.
1-1, 26 G, 24.2 IP, 4.38 ERA, 15 BB, 25 K, 1.459 WHIP
The computers assumed that Familia was going to pitch a whole season, which we already knew would be wrong thanks to the suspension. Even with that, he fell back more than any computer thought he would. When I read the Steamer projection, I thought they were way off base but they ended up being the closest to reality.
Hopefully 2018 will be better.