2017 Projections Review – Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo was the back up plan going into 2017. Then everything fell apart quickly and the Mets needed Lugo. Except he also went down. 2017 was a mess. Let’s take a look at what the computers saw going into the season:

Seth Lugo
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 64 5-2 2.67 21 45 1.09
Projections
MLB.com 110 7-7 4.01 36 77 1.24
Steamer 83.2 4-6 4.52 28 65 1.35
ZiPS 131.2 4.58 39 104 1.31
ESPN 7-9 4.34 118 1.34
Baseball Prospectus 64 4-4 4.44 51 1.4
NBC Rotoworld 115.2 8-6 3.89 33 100 1.28
Rotowire 142 7-9 4.25 48 117 1.338
Baseball America 131 7 3.92 35 100 1.21
FBG 2017 125 1-0 4.17 40 88 1.2
Average 112.7 5.6-5.8 4.24 37.00 91.11 1.30

2017 Stats:
7-5, 19 G, 18 GS, 4.71 ERA, 101.1 IP, 25 BB, 85 K, 1.372 WHIP

The optimism around him and his curveball was shot down by the computer programs going into 2017. And it turns out the projections were more correct than fans. He did worse than the projections but not by much, especially in WHIP. Baseball Prospectus, ZiPS and Steamer all did a good job figuring out his numbers. Also the average of the projections nailed down his innings of work well, which was much higher than anticipated going into the 2017 season.

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