213 Miles From Shea

The Mets look to split the series with the Royals this afternoon after dropping the first game of the season 4-3. After a slow start to the game with a few mental miscues / lucky breaks for the Royals (we’ll get ours too as the season goes on), the Mets were able to mount a small come back but it wasn’t enough to close out the game. Noah Syndergaard will look to lead the Amazin’s against Chris Young as they head into two consecutive off-days before coming back to Queens.

Syndergaard is coming off of a strong rookie season where he went 9-7 over 24 starts and 150.0 innings with a 3.24 ERA and 166 K’s. He rose to new heights in the post-season, throwing high and tight to Escobar and stealing Pedro Martinez’s heart. He pitched 6.0 innings against the Royals in the third game of the series, picking up the win after allowing 3 ER, walking 2 and striking out 6. Overall in the post-season, he pitched 19.0 innings with a 3.32 ERA and 26 K’s. The Royals have the following numbers against Thor:

• Cain 1-3
• Escobar 1-3, 2K
• Gordon 1-2, BB
• Hosmer 0-3
• Moustakas 1-3
• Perez 1-2

The Mets will get a look at former Met Chris Young, who was 11-6 with a 3.06 ERA over 34 games, 18 starts and 123.1 innings for the Royals in 2015. After going 4-9 with a 4.15 ERA over 115.0 innings with the Mets in 2012, Young found himself in Seattle for 2014. He went 12-9 over 165.0 innings with a 3.65 ERA. It was the most he pitched since 2007. He pitched twice against the Mets in the World Series totaling 7.0 innings allowing 2 ER, 2 walks and 7 K’s. He put up a 2.01 ERA in the post season. The Mets have the following numbers against the former Met:

• Cespedes 1-14, 2B
• Wright 1-11, 4 BB
• Granderson 0-4
• Cabrera 0-4
• d’Arnaud 0-3
• Duda 0-3
• Flores 1-1
• Confort0 1-1, 2B
• Worth noting that the Mets have .091 collective BA over 44 AB’s against Young)

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s finally here! Opening Day!

It’s a different Opening Day for the Mets. First off, it’s at night. Second, it’s an interleague game. Then they have this odd break before their second game and are effectively playing an NBA like schedule this week. Whatever, the Mets are ready to roll and more importantly, play baseball.

The Mets are literally picking up where they left off in 2016 opening up in Kansas City against the team that beat them in the World Series. It is also the first Harvey day of the year. For Harvey, it will be his first major league game since starting the ninth inning in the World Series (to this day, I don’t disagree with Collins, I don’t know how you say no at that point). During the regular season last year, Harvey had a 13-8 record over 29 starts and 189.1 innings with a 2.71 ERA and 188 K’s. He pitched 6.0 innings in the first game of the world series allowing 3 ER over 5 hits while striking out 2 and in the second game he pitched 8.0 innings, allowing 2 ER over 5 hits while striking out 9. The Royals have the following numbers against Harvey:

• Cain 2-6
• Escobar 1-7
• Hosmer 1-5, 2B
• Moustakas 2-6
• Perez 1-6
• Gordon 0-3
• Infante 2-4

Edison Volquez was 13-9 last season making 33 starts (34 total games) in the regular season, reaching 200.1 inning with a 3.55 ERA. He matched up against Harvey in each of his two World Series starts. In the first game he allowed 3 ER over 6.0 innings while striking out 3 and in his second start he allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over 6.0 innings while striking out 5 (with 5 walks). The Mets have the following numbers against Edison:

• Wright 3-19
• Granderson 2-13, 2 HR
• Walker 3-17, 2B
• Duda 4-11, 2B
• Cabrera 4-13, HR
• d’Arnaud 1-10
• Cespedes 2-9

Let’s Go Mets!

The Captain. What to expect from the heart and soul of this club? The goal this year will be to get him into 130 games this year. As to be expected, the computers had a lot of problems projecting Wright in terms of declines in performance and figuring out his playing time:

I think the average makes the most amount of sense, especially in playing time (thanks to BP assuming he plays every game in the season). That being said, the power numbers don’t make sense to me. If Wright plays to 460ish AB’s, I think he should have at least 10 homers. The declines in average make sense.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

In a major move this off-season, the Mets swapped Jon Niese for Neil Walker and this move makes a lot of sense. The Mets needed an upgrade at second base due to losing Murphy and not getting Zobrist. A long term deal didn’t make sense as the Mets are looking at Herrera down the road and Walker, with one year left, looks like their guy. He has more pop than Murphy but doesn’t get on base nearly as often. On the other side, he provides more consistent defense on the field. Let’s take a look at what the computers think about our new second basemen:

Not really surprising here, the computers see an uptick in power from last year (where he hit 16 homers), and see a down tick in batting average. These numbers up the middle though are average or better than average, so I’ll be happy with them, if it comes with consistent defense.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Here’s a tough projection: Ruben Tejada. Thanks to Walker and Cabrera, and keeping Flores, Tejada will struggle to see consistent playing time this season. He provides a buffer in case something goes wrong so the Mets don’t have to go to Dilson Herrera in the minors. That being said, Tejada is legend now with the Mets after the Utley slide. We’ll always remember what happen and what it meant to #WinForRuben. Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do in 2016:

I think the at bat counts may be a bit high, but the rest of the numbers, especially the hitting numbers, seem right. Tejada will probably see the bulk of his playing time this year come as a late inning defensive replacement, although unlike Lagares, there aren’t a lot of advantages of putting Tejada out there (this probably happens on days where Flores starts at short).

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Plawecki is in a difficult position this year. He stepped when needed last year, but his hitting didn’t completely translate into the major league (he’s an average hitter). This year, the goal is to get d’Arnaud in the game as much as possible, so how much playing time will Plawecki see? Ultimately it will depend on d’Arnaud’s health, and Plawecki is a more than decent back up option. Here are the 2016 projections:

The average is very close to the amount of AB’s he’ll get this year (maybe a tick too high), it is also nice to see that all outlets see Kevin hitting better this year. Not monumentally better, but there is a good amount of improvement.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Juan Lagares is another player who is difficult to project. Most computers spat out projections before the Mets signed Cespedes, which changes Lagares playing time tremendously. Before that, he was looking at a 60/40 spit with de Aza, where the starts could be about 50/50 and Lagares getting the overall playing advantage due to late inning substitutions. Lagares will still be the late inning guy, essentially taking over for Conforto (with Cespedes then moving over). He wasn’t bad last year, but he wasn’t close to his 2014 numbers. Let’s take a look to what the computers think he’ll put up next year:

As noted before, I think the playing time here is overdone. I do agree with the predictions of uptick in average and getting on base over 2015 numbers, this is probably more accurate. Playing time is key for Lagares.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

The pressure is off of Dilson Herrera for right now. Between Cabrera and Walker + still having Flores, Dilson gets more time in the minors to work on hitting. The 22 year old was brought up due to the rash of injuries last year and struggled, then got injured himself. His numbers in the minors though were fantastic as he hit 11 homers with a .327 BA, .382 OBP, .511 SLG in hitter friendly Las Vegas. Let’s take a look at what the projections think he’ll do this year:

I found ZiPS and Baseball America to be the most interesting here, they just didn’t factor playing time into the equation at all and created a statement of, “what would happen if Dilson was the main player for his position at the major league level) and the results as they see it, are great!

Dilson is young, and I’m really curious as to what he will bring to the team in 2017 after Walker. Herrera was the reason why the Mets didn’t go after Murphy and was the reason why I was honestly confused about Zobrist.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

Curtis Granderson was the hidden star of the Mets last year. He had a nice career rebound in pop last year smacking 26 homers, hitting almost .260 and getting on base at a .364 clip. Curtis is always an easy guy to root for and last year he was a joy to root for. What do the computers feel about Curtis for this upcoming season? Let’s take a look:

The computers see a slight regression, but this is normal for a 35 year old. It is worth noting that the progression the computers predict is still better than his 2014 season. It is also worth noting that one outlet, BP, has Curtis with more power than last year, which is great! If he has this average line next season, it would be a major success.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

What a year for Flores last year. At the start of the year, the team went with Flores instead of a marquee shortstop. He had some offensive ups and defensive downs over the first couple of months. Then he was almost traded, wore his emotions on the field, the fan base gathered around him, he hit a fairytale, walk off homer two days later, and became Mets legend. All in all, he did well last year. He hit .263 and had 16 homers (and a WARP of 2.2) but his defense was just bad. With the Mets getting Neil Walker and Cabrera, he will play all over the place in 2016.

Ultimately, I think his ABs are a bit high. That being said his power numbers look about right. Actually all his numbers look about right. Flores is going to perform, but it will depend on how Collins uses him. Flores is tantalizing because of his ceiling. These numbers represent, in my view at least, closer to his ceiling, but his ceiling could be higher. Cabrera and Walker will perform closer to their projections and career numbers and are safer bets.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual