2016 Projection Meta-Analysis: Wilmer Flores

What a year for Flores last year. At the start of the year, the team went with Flores instead of a marquee shortstop. He had some offensive ups and defensive downs over the first couple of months. Then he was almost traded, wore his emotions on the field, the fan base gathered around him, he hit a fairytale, walk off homer two days later, and became Mets legend. All in all, he did well last year. He hit .263 and had 16 homers (and a WARP of 2.2) but his defense was just bad. With the Mets getting Neil Walker and Cabrera, he will play all over the place in 2016.

Player: Wilmer Flores
Projection Source: AB R HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS
MLB.com 300 35 10 37 0 0.25 0.288 0.41 0.698
Steamer 330 35 11 43 1 0.264 0.301 0.421 0.722
ESPN 149 18 5 20 0 0.268 0.304 0.423 0.727
ZiPS 556 65 15 70 1 0.262 0.298 0.412 0.71
PECOTA (BP) 244 25 8 31 0 0.258 0.292 0.42 0.712
Sporting News 495 57 14 66 2 0.273 0.3 0.412 0.712
Baseball America 529 70 17 78 3 0.274 0.315 0.433 0.748
Rotowire 412 46 12 50 1 0.257 0.29 0.396 0.686
MLB Yearbook 368 41 10 44 0 0.258 0.291 0.389 0.68
AVERAGE: 375.8888889 43.55555556 11.33333333 48.77777778 0.888888889 0.262666667 0.297666667 0.412888889 0.710555556

Ultimately, I think his ABs are a bit high. That being said his power numbers look about right. Actually all his numbers look about right. Flores is going to perform, but it will depend on how Collins uses him. Flores is tantalizing because of his ceiling. These numbers represent, in my view at least, closer to his ceiling, but his ceiling could be higher. Cabrera and Walker will perform closer to their projections and career numbers and are safer bets.

Notes:
Both ZiPS and PECOTA (BP) do not provide AB’s, so those are PA’s instead.
MLB.com and Steamer data can be found here.
ZiPS data can be found here.
ESPN data can be found here.
Baseball America data is from the 2016 Preview Fantasy Guide
Sporting News data is from the 2016 publication of Sporting News Fantasy Baseball
Rotowire data is from the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2016 published by Rotowire
MLB Yearbook data is from the 2016 Major League Baseball Yearbook
PECOTA (BP) data is from the Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual

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