213 Miles From Shea

If the Mets make the play-offs this year, it could be due to Todd Frazier.

Really.

In an ideal world, Todd Frazier is a super utility player, plugging in when it statistically making sense for him to be in the lineup. Filling in for Lowrie, giving Alonso a day-off. As long as everyone stays healthy, Frazier becomes a major bat off the bench, one that the Mets haven’t had for a lot of years because they needed these types of bats in the lineup everyday.

This of course depends on his health and the health of others which has already been thrown into question this spring with Jed Lowrie. But back on Frazier:

2018: 472 PA, 408 AB, 18 HR, .213/.303/.390, 1.9 WAR, 99 DRC+
Career: .242/.319/.451, 111 DRC+

It’s worth remembering that last year the Mets needed him to be a starter. His WAR and power off the bench would be great but as a starter not so much. So the Mets went out and got Cano/Lowrie, their bringing up Alonso and also got JD Davis. Plus, Rivera should be coming back as well. When you add McNeil who can float between the outfield and infield, Frazier doesn’t have to start! And if he heats up, then he can slot in as a starter and someone else can come off the bench as a pinch hitter.

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

With the exception of BP, all the other projections are pretty set on Frazier hitting 20 bombs. Even though Frazier isn’t going to be a regular starter, it’s not difficult imagining Frazier getting 250-350 PA’s this year, which would put him around 16-18 homers from the above line.

Frazier could be the secret for the Mets this year, as long as they use him the exact right amount.

For last 3+ weeks we’ve been going through all the non-roster invitees the Mets brought to camp this year. This post just ties everyone together in a neat, scroll-able list:

Pitchers

• Luis Avilan
• Arquimedes Caminero
• PJ Conlon
• Anthony Kay
• Ryan O’Rourke
• David Peterson
• Ryder Ryan
• Hector Santiago
• Corey Taylor
• Joshua Torres
• Stephan Villines

Catchers

• Patrick Mazeika
• Devin Mesoraco
• Colton Plaia
• Ali Sanchez

Infielders

• Pete Alonso
• Gavin Cecchini
• Danny Espinosa
• Andres Gimenez
• Adeiny Hechavarria
• Dilson Herrera

Outfielders

• Gregor Blanco
• Rajai Davis
• Carlos Gomez
• Rymer Liriano
• Tim Tebow

One of the more surprising trades the Mets made this off-season was for J.D. Davis who the Mets gave up Luis Santana and Ross Adolph. Then the Mets turned around and signed Jed Lowrie. Plus, there’s TJ Rivera in camp looking to get people to remember why were excited about him. All of this is to say, there’s a lot working against JD right now.

2018: 113 PA, 103 BA, 1 HR, .175/.248/.223, -0.7 WAR, 68 DRC+
Career: .194/.260/.321/72 DRC+
Career: Minors: .292/.362/.521

His numbers in the minors are phenomenal, he just hasn’t had enough time and consistent time in the majors. But even if he gets, that can he reach these numbers?

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

For a player like JD, looking a ZiPS might be our best bet since ZiPS doesn’t try to figure out playing time. a .297 OBP would be a significant improvement over his career numbers and the OPS of .700, which is right around average, is 100 points better than his career also.

Even before the Lowerie signing, JD Davis was projected as a major league bat off the bench, that’s it. Now he just provides another level of depth for a club that had so little depth in the infield the last couple of years that they ran d’Arnaud out once to play third base.

The Mets came roaring back in our lives yesterday like they never left with a 4-3 win over the Braves in the first game of the Spring. After the top half of the second with questionable defense, J.D. Davis recorded the first hit of the season for the Mets (infield single) which was immediately forgotten about as Pete Alonso took the first pitch he saw way, way out of the ballpark. Position battles aren’t won or loss on the first day of spring, but it was a nice opening salvo.

Mets Lineup:
1. Keon Broxton (CF)
2. Dominic Smith (1B)
3. Wilson Ramos (C)
4. Pete Alonso (DH)
5. Tim Tebow (LF)
6. Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
7. Luis Guillorme (2B)
8. Gregor Blanco (RF)
9. Gavin Cecchini (3B)
SP – Jacob deGrom

This afternoon the Mets will face the traveling side of a split squad roster from Houston as we all celebrate a deGrom day live from St. Lucie. When we last saw Jacob he was wrapping up a career year crowned with a chipped Cy Young award. He posted a league leading 1.70 ERA, league leading 1.99 FIP, league leading 216 ERA+ and a league leading 0.4 HR/9. It’s his first start in spring, so I’m not going to read anything out of whatever he does today. I’m just glad to see him back on the mound.

Things to watch for in no particular order:

1. Wilson Ramos will make his Mets debut today. The catcher signed as a free agent and could be one of more important moves of the off-season. He has a career DRC+ of 104 but has posted a 121 in 2016 with the Nationals and then 123/121 with the Phillies and Rays last year
2. Tim Tebow gets the start today! Did you know he was an Eastern League All-Star last year?
3. We finally get to Hechavarria on the field! A recent signing for depth on an NRI, what Adeiny lacks with the bat he makes up with flashy plays on the infield. The Mets have a crowded infield on the 40-man and quite a few players trying to break through on an NRI.
4. There are three outfielders the Mets have on NRI’s that have an outside shot of making the team, but they have to have a tremendous spring. Rymer Liriano showed us yesterday that he has pop with a homer and today we’ll see what Gregor Blanco can do. (Rajai Davis rounds out this group)
5. Ryder Ryan is on the pitching schedule for today. He was brought over the first time the Mets traded Jay Bruce. We did a quick write up on him recently here.

The end results don’t matter but playing time does! Let’s Go Mets!

For the last several weeks we have been methodically moving through the Mets non-roster invitee list alphabetically by position and we are finally at the last one (unless the Mets make another signing which is totally possible but will ruin the next sentence). There’s something awfully poetic with the last article being Tim Tebow.

He seemed like a joke signing a few years ago, and still is not exactly a prospect, but the Mets have brought players into camp this year and in years past with worse numbers then Tebow. He’s really good for the media, fans like him and although I’ve made fun of him a lot of the years, he’s a really nice guy trying really hard and I feel bad about making jokes.

I’ve seen him play twice now in the minors (with the Fireflies and last year with the Rumble Ponies). I’ll probably see him again this season too. I go to a lot of minor league games and I didn’t want to admit this years ago but, he makes minor league baseball games more fun. More people come out to the ballpark, people are into watching him play. He’s good for baseball.

But will he be good for the Mets?

Or will he see playing time with the Mets?

Last year, before he broke his hand, the answer was yeah, and probably in September 2018. The Mets were doing so bad and Tebow was doing so well that it just seemed like a collision course. Now with the Mets revamping their roster, it’s less likely we’ll see Tebow in Queens this year but you never know. If the NL gets a DH in 2020 then really anything is possible.

2016 Minors (AFL): 71 PA, .194/.296/.242
2017 Minors: 486 PA, .226/.309/.347
2018 Minors: 298 PA, .273/.336/.399

Tebow was legitimately an Eastern League All-Star last year, something I didn’t think possible back in 2016. Depending on how other players stay or leave the organization by the end of Spring, Tebow will start either back in Binghamton or in Syracuse (putting him in Syracuse could be a huge draw for their new branding).

Tebow makes baseball more fun.

The Robinson Cano with Edwin Diaz trade to open the off-season set the tone for what BWV was going to do. While some of his moves (JD Davis) still are head scratchers, BWV had no problem overturning over 20% of the Mets roster and while Edwin Diaz is the real prize in the Cano/Diaz trade, Cano brings a bat not seen in the Mets infield for quite some time.

2018: 348 PA, 310 AB, 10 HR, .303/.374/.471, 3.2 WAR, 125 DRC+
Career: .304/.355/.493, 121 DRC+

For comparison, the top DRC+’s last year on the Mets were Nimmo (123), McNeil (119) and Conforto (112).

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

The major concern about acquiring Cano is how he will age. While that conversation is still a couple of years off, check out these projections. Anything close to this, even ZiPS which is the lowest one, would be huge for the Mets infield.

The average OPS would put him behind Nimmo, McNeil, Cespedes and Conforto on the team. But out of that list, who knows when Cespedes is coming back and if McNeil can approach his rookie numbers again.

It’s not often I feel good after writing a projections article for the Mets, which has been a consequence of the types of teams the Mets have put together the last couple of years, but after writing Wilson Ramos‘ yesterday and Cano’s today, our lineup is going to look quite different.

Baseball box scores come back in our lives today!

The Mets kick off spring training this afternoon by hosting the Braves in St. Lucie. The more notable starting pitchers on the club will start seeing the mound tomorrow, today the Mets will peak into what depth options lie beyond (maybe hopefully but not getting too excited – instead of) Jason Vargas.

Lineup:
1. Jeff McNeil (LF)
2. Juan Lagares (CF)
3. Robinson Cano (DH)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. J.D. Davis (3B)
6. Pete Alonso (1B)
7. Amed Rosario (SS)
8. Devin Mesoraco (C)
9. Arismendy Alcantara (2B)

Starting Pitcher: Walker Lockett
At the start of January the Mets traded Kevin Plawecki to the Indians for Walker Lockett and Sam Haggerty. It was the second time this off-season that Lockett was traded. Back on November 20th, he was traded from the Padres to Cleveland for Ignacio Feliz.
Drafted in 2012, Walker made his major league debut last season for the Padres where he went 0-3 over 4 games (3 starts) totaling 15.0 innings posting a 9.60 ERA, 7.03 FIP, 2.133 WHIP and a 7.2 K/9. In the minors he was a career 4.15 ERA pitcher over 7 seasons posting a 1.291 WHIP. Baseball Reference listed Walker as the #28 prospect in the Padres system back in 2017 (that book had Fernando Tatis Jr.as the Padres #17 prospect) giving him a grade of 40 and medium risk.

Things To Watch For In No Particular Order:

1. This will be our first look at Jeff McNeil in the outfield. After delaying his call up for weeks last year because they didn’t want to play Jeff out of position, the Mets with a glut of new infielders on the team will be forced to play Jeff out of position.
2. At second base is Alcantara. Although the Mets have a ton of infielders in camp on the roster and on NRI’s, Alcantara is neither, signing a minor league deal at the start of February. He’s a former prospect for the Cubs, but never could quite figure out major league pitching. There’s a good write up on him here.
3. The Mets have a ton of catchers in major league camp (Ramos, d’Arnaud, Nido, Mesoraco, Sanchez, Mazeika and Plaia). Mesoraco is on an NRI and has the best chance from the 4 NRI catchers to make the roster.
4. According to DiComo Hector Santiago will be pitching after Lockett. Santiago has quite a bit of major league experience and is in camp on an NRI. Since he’s not on the 40-man yet, this could be a hurdle for Santiago as he has to leap over 40-man pitchers Oswalt and Lockett to become starting depth. We wrote a profile on him a couple of weeks ago here, he’s coming off a season where tossed 102.0 innings with a 4.41 ERA, 5.12 FIP, 6.37 DRA, and a 1.52 WHIP. These are all increases from his career line of a 4.05 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 5.74 DRA and 1.37 WHIP.
5. This will also be the Mets first look at J.D. Davis, a questionable trade that sent away intriguing prospects Luis Santana and Ross Adolph. The Davis trade was even more confusing when Lowrie was signed the following week. But with the Lowrie injury, an opening has appeared for Davis. I imagine that he’ll be directly competing with TJ Rivera among others.

We are just so excited to have Mets baseball back in our lives today! We don’t care if the games are meaningless and we don’t care if by the 3rd inning it’s all players we have to search up online.

What are you looking forward to today?

Today we round out the outfield depth signings the Mets made this off-season with Rymer Liriano, the youngest between him, Blanco and Rajai Davis and the one with the least amount of major league experience.

Rymer Liriano was drafted by the Padres in 2007 and made his major league debut in 2014. He was traded to the Brewers in 2016 for minor leaguer Trevor Seidenberger and was selected off waivers by the White Sox in October of 2016. He signed as a free agent with the Angels before the 2018 season, was released midway through where he made his way back to the Brewers. He signed with the Mets in January.

2014 MLB: 121 PA, .220/.289/.266, 56 DRC+
2017 MLB: 46 PA, .220/.304/.341, 71 DRC+
2018 Minors: 404 PA, .253/.342/.472
2019 Baseball Reference Projections: 205 PA, .242/.315/.401

Baseball Reference projects him at barely average next season, which for an outfielder isn’t the greatest piece of news. It’s also been a while since he has seen significant major league playing time.

He had a decent, not great, last year in the minors and for the Mets who need players about his age (28) in the system to fill up roster spots, having Liriano as a depth piece makes sense. His age is an advantage compared to Blanco and Davis but his lack of playing time puts him on the outside looking in to get a roster or an emergency call-up during the season. The bottom line for the Mets its nice to have depth and that’s what Liriano represents.

Today we wrap up our projections review of catchers on the 40 man with the actual starting catcher for the 2019 Mets – Wilson Ramos!

The last two days we’ve looked at d’Arnaud and Nido. The former will be competing with Mesoraco for a back up role and Nido will probably be on the outside looking for the major league season.

But Wilson! He’s the focus here. The Mets got Wilson Ramos on a steal of a deal after Grandal turned down a 4 year offer from the Mets.

2018: 416 PA, 382 AB, 15 HR, .306/.358/.487, 2.7 WAR, 121 DRC+
Career: .273/.317/.439, 104 DRC+

Ramos put up a great year last year and his career DRC+ is better than anyone the Mets have on their roster (closest is Mesoraco at 100). Here are what the projection programs see in Wilson’s first year as a Met:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

Steamer and ZiPS, both fangraphs linked projections, see Ramos taking a step back of his career numbers in 2019. Everyone else see’s an improvement including a whopping 112 DRC+ (which is high off his average career mark) from BP.

It’s been a while since the Mets have had a reliably offensive minded catcher behind the plate. Even the ZiPS line would feel like an improvement over past years.

Tomorrow we’ll continue with new players with Robinson Cano!

Since around 2014/2015 it felt like the Mets were on a collision course with Rajai Davis. Around then he was just a slightly below average hitter, meaning that he was serviceable to run out in the outfield. He played a position the Mets needed and wouldn’t cost a crazy amount of money or a large prospect in a trade, all things the Mets brass would care about. But it never happened. The stars never aligned.

Then he got older which historically is the Mets time to pounce thus Rajai Davis, who will be 38 this season, is in Mets camp. Different than other years: in the Mets more recent history he would be competing for a starting job, he’s here as a depth piece on an NRI competing directly with Gregor Blanco. With that as a set up, having him in camp makes sense.

Before we get into his recent numbers, just some quick transaction history. He was drafted in 2011 by the Pirates int he 38th round and made his debut in 2006. He was traded 2007 to the Giants for Matt Morris and was selected off waivers by the Athletics in 2008. In 2010 he was traded to the Blue Jays for Danny Farquhar and Tyrstan Magnuson and would become a free agent in 2013. He then signed with the Tigers for two seasons (the first time that rumors on Twitter started that the Mets should bet interested in him. Since then signed with the Indians, then the Athletics (again) who traded him (again) this time to the Red Sox for Rafael Rincones. Then he signed with the Indians (again) before becoming a Met!

2017 Oakland: 328 PA, .233/.294/.353, 71 DRC+
2018 Cleveland: 216 PA, .224/.278/.281, 69 DRC+
Career: .262/.311/.379, 85 DRC+

If Rajai Davis was still hitting close to his career line, he would be competing for a starting job somewhere. His OBP has been declining since 2014 and his DRC+ has declined from 94 in in 2015 down to 69 last year, a number he has posted 3 times in his career (although not his worse). If he sees significant time in the majors this year his numbers will be close to his numbers the last two seasons.

Here’s why the Rajai Davis signing is good though. If he stays with the team, would you rather in case of an emergency the Mets pull up a random player like they had two last year (Jack Reinheimer/Kevin Kaczmarksi/Phil Evans) if they are still in contention? I would feel better in this case with Davis or Blanco on the bench (I mean, ideally I would feel better if this wasn’t a scenario we always had to plan for but it is the Mets).

As stated earlier, he’ll be in direct competition with Gregor Blanco. Let’s see what happens!