If the Mets make the play-offs this year, it could be due to Todd Frazier.
In an ideal world, Todd Frazier is a super utility player, plugging in when it statistically making sense for him to be in the lineup. Filling in for Lowrie, giving Alonso a day-off. As long as everyone stays healthy, Frazier becomes a major bat off the bench, one that the Mets haven’t had for a lot of years because they needed these types of bats in the lineup everyday.
This of course depends on his health and the health of others which has already been thrown into question this spring with Jed Lowrie. But back on Frazier:
2018: 472 PA, 408 AB, 18 HR, .213/.303/.390, 1.9 WAR, 99 DRC+
Career: .242/.319/.451, 111 DRC+
It’s worth remembering that last year the Mets needed him to be a starter. His WAR and power off the bench would be great but as a starter not so much. So the Mets went out and got Cano/Lowrie, their bringing up Alonso and also got JD Davis. Plus, Rivera should be coming back as well. When you add McNeil who can float between the outfield and infield, Frazier doesn’t have to start! And if he heats up, then he can slot in as a starter and someone else can come off the bench as a pinch hitter.
(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )
With the exception of BP, all the other projections are pretty set on Frazier hitting 20 bombs. Even though Frazier isn’t going to be a regular starter, it’s not difficult imagining Frazier getting 250-350 PA’s this year, which would put him around 16-18 homers from the above line.
Frazier could be the secret for the Mets this year, as long as they use him the exact right amount.