213 Miles From Shea

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

J.D. Davis made me look like I had the worst take in the world last year, and I love it. Last year around this time I was vocal against the Davis trade because I was a big fan of both prospects the Mets gave up (Luis Santana and Ross Adolph) plus the Mets just signed Jed Lowrie and Davis looked like an extra player that was needed. Lowrie ended up basically never playing, a story that is still continuing and Davis went from a 78 DRC+ in in 2017 and a 68 DRC+ in 2018 (meaning he was 22% worse and 32% worse than the average hitter in the league both of those seasons) to 122 in 2019 (flipping it, hitting 22% than the average hitter). Plus we all fell in love with his charm in the dugout.

2019 Stats: 453 PA, 410 AB, 22 HR, .307/.369/.527, 1.0 WAR, 122 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The problem for Davis is where does he play. The Mets have a million corner outfielders and no centerfielders, and dozen fringe third basemens. It will be Rojas’ job to find time for him somewhere because when he plays, Davis delivers. Looking at his 2020 projections, it seems that most places are saying that he played above his level last year, he’s projected for steep step backs in power and a moderate step back in OBP, but even with that a line of .270/.333/.472 is still quite good when you’re not supposed to be nearly the best bat in the linuep.

This is one of those rare projection articles where we see regression, agree that the regression makes sense but the regression is still so much higher than we were anticipating a year ago we don’t care.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

So excited to get to Anthony Kay! After today, the rest of the prospects are still with the team, still bringing positive energy into my life, etc. The Mets traded for Marcus Stroman in the middle of the 2019 season giving up Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson. For the Mets, the move only makes sense if they signed Wheeler to an extension or as a free agent (neither happened) and extend Stroman (yet to happen) so there is still a risk that the trade bringing in the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher on the Mets staff has hurt them in the immediate future.

The Blue Jays got a surprise (well a surprise to people who weren’t following the Mets farm system) in Woods Richardson but Anthony Kay was the immediately ready for the big leagues prospect in the trade. In the universe where the Mets don’t make that trade and still don’t sign Wheeler, Kay is probably in the rotation this year for the Mets.

Anyway, let’s return to what BA said about him before the 2019 season and then take a look at what happened. They started off recounting the beginning of his pro career, taken 31st overall, missing his first two seasons due to TJ, etc, etc. BA’s story picks up when they talk about the change he made in 2018. Coming back from TJ, rather than relying on a fastball, he started showing an improved “top-to-bottom 80 mph curveball that he locates to both sides of the plate.” They were still impressed with his low to mid 90s fastball and the emerging change up. They end by saying he has mid-rotation potential, and they expect him to make the majors by 2020.

Well he arrived early. He pitched in 3 games and 14.0 innings last year with the Blue Jays pitching 14.0 innings, striking out 13 and putting up a 5.79 ERA, 2.64 FIP, and a 1.429 WHIP. Before the trade in Binghamton he dominated over 12 starts posting a 1.49 ERA before struggling in Syracuse in 7 games with a 6.61 ERA. But after the trade he had a 2.50 ERA in the same league with Buffalo. He seems to be slightly ahead of schedule from BA. We hope that he has a tremendous season with the Blue Jays in 2020.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Almost lost in Alonso’s amazing rookie year, deGrom’s back to back Cy Youngs and McNeil’s arrival as one of the better hitters in baseball was Michael Conforto. Conforto, very quietly, had a tremendous year on offense hitting over 30 homers, getting on base over a .360 clip and slugging nearly .500. According to Baseball Prospectus he was 22% better than the average hitter last year, which is very, very good. (A couple of years ago Nimmo had the best ranking in that stat on the whole team).

2019 Stats: 648 PA, 549 AB, 33 HR, .257/.363/.494, 3.5 WAR, 122 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

It looks like computer projections have Conforto putting up practically the same season, especially where it counts in OBP and SLG. A consistent Conforto is the backbone of this team and at some point the Mets are going to need to lock him up on a long term deal.

The only question is will the rest of the league recognize Conforto for what he is. He’s only been named to one All-Star game, 2017, but if he puts up the numbers he did last year again like the consensus of projections show, then he should be in the All-Star game every single year.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Kevin Smith was drafted by the Mets in 2018 in the 7th round (please don’t get him confused with Kevin Smith in Toronto’s farm system who was drafted in 2017). The lefty played for the University of Georgia and has moved from Brooklyn to Binghamton in his two seasons with the Mets.

2018 Brooklyn: 12 G, 3 GS, 23.2 IP, 0.76 ERA, 0.761 WHIP
2019 St. Lucie: 17 G, 17 GS, 85.2 IP, 3.05 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 10.7 K/9
2019 Binghamton: 6 G, 6 GS, 31.1 IP, 3.45 ERA, 1.277 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

It’s impressive that Smith maintained essentially the same stats in a stint in Binghamton despite being 2.3 years younger than average. This meteoric rise in the system earned him an NRI this year as the Mets are probably looking at him for a 2021 major league debut. Most likely he’ll start in Binghamton this year and work his way to Syracuse. Although with a good spring, who knows? Maybe he starts in Syracuse.

As for the majors this year, a lot has to happen. First, he has to be impressive in Spring and in the minors. He has to be so good that he leap frogs David Peterson and any of the other veterans brought in to compete for a rotation spot. Second, there needs to be a reason that he would get consistent starts at the major league level, and that only happens if something bad happens at the major league level.

We’ll be looking at him this spring mainly for how he fairs in 2021. Where does he belong on the Mets rotation depth charts? We have spent a lot of time talking this off-season about how depleted the Mets top of the system is with starting pitching talent thanks to the departures of Kay and Dunn. We know about Peterson, Szapucki and Kilome have injury concerns. Maybe Kevin Smith surprises us all.

We are back with a third installment of collecting some reactions to the Houston Cheating Scandal and Rob Manfred’s first and second attempts at an apology. The first installment can be found here. The second here.

Jon Lester on MLB commissioner Rob Manfred calling the World Series trophy a “piece of metal” during an interview with ESPN: “That’s somebody that has never played our game. You play for a reason. You play for that piece of metal. I’m very proud of the three that I have.”

— Patrick Mooney (@PJ_Mooney) February 18, 2020

We did it, Baseball Twitter! I’m proud of us. https://t.co/rNeEPVqQDB

— Trevor Plouffe (@trevorplouffe) February 18, 2020

Hard to argue with this thread…As surprising as it may seem, a championship isn’t just a “piece of metal” to most of us…its symbolic of much more than that. The current precedent seems to encourage cheat to win because there’s no consequences. That cannot be our standard. https://t.co/pKbkdIY4IJ

— Trevor Bauer (@BauerOutage) February 18, 2020

#This. It’s not going away. #MLB doesn’t have to rule. Astros can set their own precedent and Vacate the title. If they do that Fans, #Athletes, MLB players will have nothing more to say. This will ALL BE OVER and your team can get a fresh start! https://t.co/CeG9I51ZbF

— Jerry Hairston, Jr. (@TheRealJHair) February 18, 2020

Markakis on the Astros: “I know how hard this game is and I know how hard preparing for this game is. To see something like that is damaging to baseball. It’s anger. I feel every single guy over there deserves a beating.”

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) February 18, 2020

“piece of metal” 🧐🤔🤨

— Brian O'Grady (@BrianOGrady21) February 16, 2020

Justin Turner is not holding anything back https://t.co/KNPDYNZxl5 pic.twitter.com/8Z2igc09m4

— L.A. Times Sports (@latimessports) February 17, 2020

Trout might/would hit .750 to .999 with 150-300 homeruns if he knew what was coming. Lol 😂 @MikeTrout https://t.co/4br0mKdANd

— Marcus Stroman (@STR0) February 17, 2020

Hey an Astro finally getting punished https://t.co/zngg34LMYj

— Phil Hughes (@PJHughes45) February 17, 2020

This is your dad after getting caught cussing for the first time https://t.co/GYy7uoMwml

— Brett Anderson (@_BAnderson30_) February 18, 2020

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

This website should really be named 213 Miles From David Peterson. Last week we wrote up a Non-Roster Invite preview for him, in a few weeks we have an article projecting his 2020 stats and he was featured in a 2018 NRI review article a couple of years ago. It’s not that we are major fans of David Peterson (although we do like him) he just happens to be involved in every article series going on in the website right now.

Let’s focus on what BA said about him before the 2019 season and then see if that came true. Peterson was a first round pick for the Mets in 2017 and then featured speed bumps from an ingrown toenail and knee issues. BA was impressed by his “contact management”, allowing only 2 homers in 22 starts and a ground ball rate of 65%, which was 3rd in the minors that year. He has a low, low 90s fastball and a low, low 80’s slider. He’s a tall lefty who throws out of the 3/4 arm slot, all of which is nice. BA see’s his ceiling as a #4 starter, which is good because the Mets need that.

So how did he do since this book was published?

2019 Binghamton: 116.0 IP, 4.19 ERA, 1.345 WHIP, 9.5 K/9
2019 Arizona Fall League: 13.0 IP, 3.46 ERA, 2.000 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

David Peterson did well last year. Later this month when we get to his projection article, some projections are actually quite hyped on his ability to contribute this year. We aren’t there yet. Since the Mets traded Justin Dunn, Anthony Kay among others last year, Peterson is now the most ready Mets starter to be added to the 40-man roster. If something happens to two starters this season, Peterson probably is a more attractive option to try in the rotation than the long-men the Mets currently have on their roster. Coupled with BA saying that his ceiling is a 4th starter, that’s fine. The options the Mets have are 5th or worse.

So we are hoping for David Peterson’s continued success this year, and we’ll probably see all you Peterson fans again in a couple of weeks when we look at his projections.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Yoenis Cespedes had quite the year last year. He was recovering massive heal surgery, a surgery that was probably delayed the previous year because Mets ownership wanted him to play through pain. While recovering he broke his ankle in a wild boar attack, a story that some how only broke during the off-season. In complete, peak, Mets-Universe, being attacked by a boar doesn’t even begin to crack the most important and wildest stories of the Mets off-season.

It’s not clear what he will be able to do once he’s fully back. What is clear is that he has been working hard at coming back and he wants to be back. The non-internet journalists that cover the Met have been unfair in their coverage of Céspedes for a while now, it is not a surprise that he doesn’t want to speak to the media this year.

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

First, everyone except ESPN sees Cespedes playing for about half a season, with a significant slugging percentage and good OPS, especially for missing the last year and a half of baseball. I can’t shake the memory of 2015 Céspedes, putting the Mets on his back. If he has a positive DRC+ this season like BP is suggesting, he could be the catalyst on this team.

This team is so much fun when he plays. This lineup is so much more dangerous when he plays. The Mets still have a ton of corner outfielders, and hopefully Luis Rojas can make it work. If Céspedes is healthy, then we could be in for a fun year.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Chasen Shreve, a lefty from the College of Southern Nevada, was drafted by the Braves in the 11th round of the 2010 draft. He made his major league with the Braves in 2014. Before the next season, he was traded to the Yankees where he stayed for several years before he was traded in a deadline deal in 2018 to the Cardinals in the same deal that brought Luke Voit to the Bronx. He became a free agent at the end of last season before signing with the Mets.

In his career since 2014, he has pitched in 218 games with 203.2 innings posting a 3.71 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 1.375 WHIP with a 114 ERA+. He didn’t see significant playing time in 2019 at the major league level. Back in 2018 he pitched in 40 games and 38.0 innings with a 4.26 ERA.

He did see a lot of action in the minors last year, pitching in 51 games and 60.0 innings with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.183 WHIP.

So where does he fit with the Mets?

The Mets still don’t have a lot of leftys in the pen on the 40 man roster. Shreve gives the Mets a chance to catch lightning in a jar. If gets off to a good start and the Mets need to make a change in Queens, and if the Mets have room on the 40-man roster, he would allow the Mets to try someone at Queens without burning another player’s options. If he has a good spring and has a good start in Syracuse, it’s probable that we see him at some point in Queens this year.

This is a lot of ifs. There are always a lot of ifs we we talk about veteran players on NRIs trying to break their way onto the 40 man roster. There is also a chance that he has a really good spring, doesn’t make the roster, and asks to be released (Mesoraco). I guess we’ll see what happens over the next month.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Shervyen Newton has seen his stock drop quite a bit this past year. Baseball America’s 2019 prospect write up for him happened right before the drop off. Born in the Netherlands, BA notes that he trained in Curacao in the same camp as Jonathan Schoop and Jurickson Profar. His stats in the minors paint the picture for while his stock suddenly rose and then dropped:

2016 DOSL: 150 PA, 118 AB, .169/.347/.229
2017 DOSL: 303 PA, 241 AB, .311/.433/.444
2018 Kingsport: 266 PA, 207 AB, .280/.408/.449
2019 Columbia: 423 PA, 382 AB, .209/.283/.330

BA’s write up includes that some scouts see a potential for a 70 power reaching in the future. “Newton works deep counts and collects lots of walks and strikeouts”. The latter part is what changed for him last year as he struck out 139 times in 382 ABs and his walks decreased from 46 to 37 despite going from 266 PA to 423.

He hit a bump in the road last year. He will almost definitely start again in Columbia this year. He’s going to turn 21 during the season, is still young and showed so much promise earlier, he can put it back together. In an interesting twist, the Mets didn’t protect him in the Rule V draft this year and no one else picked him up. Hopefully Newton can surprise all the teams that passed on him and turn out a big year this year.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

The Robinson Canó trade will go down as the defining trade for BVW, and not for positive reasons. That was true before Canó played last year. He hit a homer on opening day (actually he played a role in all the scoring offense that day) and then basically crickets for the rest of the season. When he was finally starting to heat up, he got injured and missed significant playing time.

2019 Stats: 423 PA, 390 AB, 13 HR, .256/.307/.428, 0.3 WAR, 89 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The good news is that most of the projections see him making a step back in the positive direction. Even BP, who basically see him performing the same, sees him playing longer and gives him a higher DRC+ than last year (putting him at 7% worse than the average major league hitter rather than 11% where he was last year).

Although the average line isn’t pretty, if Robinson can play close to that line then the Mets will have a formidable offense. What will be tricky for Rojas is figuring out how many games Canó plays and how to balance the players making the most money vs the players with the best bats.