213 Miles From Shea

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

This is going to be a fun one folks, today we look at Pete Alonso 2019 Prospect profile. You know Pete Alonso. He hit 53 homers, setting a record for a rookie. He won the home run derby. He coined “LFGM”. He won the Rookie of the Year Award. All around good fun for Mets fans.

Before the 2019 season, BA wrote that Alonso led the minors with 36 homers in 2018. They also discussed his homer in the Future’s Game that year that left his bat at 113.6 mph. He was breaking stat cast numbers. foreshadowing his 2019. He has 70 power. He has 20 running ability. He’s not great defensively. Etc. He’s an “American League player in the National League”. They ended with he’ll be ready in early 2019.

And it’s easy to forget that last year it was unknown if he was going to start the season with the Mets! But he started the season with the Mets and had a tremendous offensive impact. As the season went on he wasn’t as big as a liability with the glove than originally thought. Going into his second major league season he has graduated off the prospect list in the best way possible. He has personal hardware and he’s hoping to bring the Mets some team hardware in short order, so he can be “on a float drunk as hell” in October.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

This isn’t the first time or the second time we’ve written about Patrick Mazeika. Just to quickly catch you up on the long time Mets farm system catcher, Mazeika was drafted in 2015 with a .348 batting average from Stetson University. In his first season he dominated hitting .354/.451/.540 at Kingsport. For the next several years he would continue to hit well, with numbers dropping a bit each way up the ladder in the minors. In 2018 he hit just .231/.328/.363, a steep decline from his previous year, at Binghamton. Last year we ended our NRI with, we have no idea where he’s going to play in 2019.

And the answer was Binghmaton. He went back to Binghamton. In 462 PA’s, 413 AB’s he hit .245/.312/.426. So, improved greatly with power, slightly with batting average and saw a dip in OBP. The Mets then sent him to the Arizona Fall League where he hit .174/.208/.239 over 48 PAs (a league where he was 2.9 years older than the average player). At 26, I guess he’s going to Syracuse next year? Maybe?

Again tricky for Mazeika is where all the catchers are in the system. Wilson Ramos is a lock as the starter. Then Rene Rivera and Tomas Nido, despite, Rivera not being on the 40 man, are battling for back up. That leaves Mazeika and David Rodriguez battling for next in line but the Mets need a long term solution, they also have Ali Sanchez, who is going to next defensive long-term back up solution. So we are just back to where we were last year, not knowing where Mazeika fits, and looking forward to the spring to figure it out.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

In what may go down as the worst free agent signing in the history of the Mets, Jed Lowrie was brought in before last season on a two year, 20 million dollar deal. BVW signed his former client even though the Mets had a crowded infield already, made more crowded by trades for both Robinson Cano and J.D. Davis. But he was signed and then right before spring training games last year he got a mysterious leg injury. He somehow played a little bit at the end of the year for no explicable reason outside of getting him into games. He arrived to camp this year in a brace.

2019 Stats: 8 PA, 7 AB, BB, .000/.125/.000

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

So most projections see Lowrie playing about half a season, which seems optimistic considering we still don’t know the state of his health. At a .720ish OPS, he’s a solid hitter but wouldn’t be a starter compared to the other hitters on the Mets. But his price tag dictates he plays.

We’ll see if any of these projections are right at the end of the season. If they are, I’m curious to hear how they handled Lowrie. I really am not excited for him right now. He’s going to squeeze someone out of a roster spot, his position seems superfluous, there’s not a lot of hope that he is the player that was with the Athletics and finally the only way someone takes him a trade is if the Mets put a real prospect with him.

Happy first day of baseball in 2020! In short order we will be able to hear the SNY tune with the Mets booth welcoming us to St. Lucie and the Mets renovated stadium. The Mets will play a split squad schedule to open up spring, with half the squad taking on the Marlins at home and the other half going to Jupiter to take on the Cardinals.

And right away this year we jump into the main position battle for the Queens squad today – who will be the 5th starter – with newly acquired pitcher Rick Porcello making the start at home. On the road Marcus Stroman makes his first start of Spring.

There are plenty of other interesting pitchers listed on lineup cards today as well. At home Drew Smith and Ryder Ryan could make their spring debuts and Non-Roster Invitee hopefuls like Shreve, Uceta and Gilliam are all listed as available. On the road Ramirez, Payano and Blackham, all with the Mets on NRI’s are listed as possibly going.

Lineup vs Marlins:

1. Jeff McNeil
2. Pete Alonso
3. Michael Conforto
4. Wilson Ramos
5. Matt Adams (DH)
6. Jake Marisnick
7. Andres Gimenez
8. Jarrett Parker
9. Max Moroff
10. Rick Porcello

Lineup vs Cardinals:

1. Amed Rosario
2. Brandon Nimmo
3. J.D. Davis
4. Dominic Smith
5. Eduardo Nunez
6. Luis Guillorme
7. Ryan Cordell
8. Rene Rivera
9. Jake Hager
10. Marcus Stroman

It looks like pretty much every starter the Mets have are in the lineup somewhere today. Being the first split squad game, there are heavy amount of Non-Roster Invitees in the lineups as well. At home we’ll get our first look at Matt Adams, Jarrett Parker and Max Moroff. On the road we’ll see Ryan Cordell, Eduardo Nunez, Rene Rivera and Jake Hager. As a fun trivia note, Ryan Cordell in the lineup and Johneshwy Fargas on the bench were drafted in the same round of the same draft (11th round, 2013).

It’s baseball! There are a lot of new names and we are just so excited to see the greatest sport again! LGM!

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

In 2019 Ronny Mauricio was the #3 prospect in the Mets system according to Baseball America. Ahead of him was Pete Alonso at #2, the reigning rookie of the year, and Andres Gimenez, who is way closer to the majors than Ronny. That being said, going into this season, Ronny is the most exciting prospect in the Mets system.

When the Mets signed him to a 2.1 million dollar contract in 2017, he was the third best international prospect. He made a strong debut in 2018 at 17 years old in the Gulf Coast and Kingsport. BA wrote that “Mauricio has all the attributes to develop a plus bat with plus power. Both his hand speed and bat speed stand out…” BA went on to give him a 70 grade arm, keeping him at short. They predicted that he would go to Columbia and he projects as a first-division regular at either short or third.

2018 Gulf Coast: 212 PA, 197 AB, .279/.307/.421
2018 Kingsport: 35 PA, 30 AB, .233/.286/.333
2019 Columbia: 504 PA, 470 AB, .268/.307/.357

Mauricio put up those numbers last year at 18 years old, 3.5 years below the average in the league and he only had 8 games in Kingsport the previous year. He essentially skipped the more rigorous of the Rookie leagues and skipped Brooklyn at all, which if it wasn’t for the talent he showed in 2018, probably would have been his next stop. He’s on his way to high A ball. He’s still growing and is developing into the Mets most exciting prospect. We cannot wait for his 2020.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Austin Bossart is the first, and possibly only, player on the NRI list I was surprised to see get a NRI only because a reasonably ran organization would never extend him one with his current stats / other players at his position already getting an NRI. But those organizations probably wouldn’t trade a starting pitcher doing fairly well for him either so there’s that.

Last year the Mets acquired Austin Bossart for Jason Vargas in a trade with the Phillies. For one season in college, he was teammates with Bradley Wilpon, the son of Jeff Wilpon. You can take that for what it’s worth. If you are trying to figure out why the Mets acquired Bossart, he was one of the highest ranked defensive catchers but has really, really struggled at hitting.

When the Mets acquired him last year,he was hitting .195/.303/.335 at Reading despite being almost a full year above the average age at that level (in 63 games, 236 PA, 200 AB). He hit just about the same with Binghamton over 70 PA, 60 AB with a .200/.300/.300 slash line. Overall in 1009 PA’s across 5 minor league seasons he has hit .257/.318/.370.

It’s just difficult to see where he fits in right now. Rene Rivera is the NRI pick to eventually fight back onto the roster, David Rodriguez and Patrick Mazeika are next inline fighting to make it to the majors and Ali Sanchez is the defensive catcher prospect (plus Francisco Alvarez as the actual catching prospect). Bossart has to force himself as a better option than the veteran Rivera, more appealing than a roll of a dice with Rodriguez and Mazeika.

Giving him an NRI doesn’t cost the Mets anything. Maybe it’s to get him more practice catching the starters in camp also on NRI’s? This move is just an overall head scratcher for me.

Each year at 213, we take projections from several different places, average them together and then compare the line that spits out to the player’s performance from last year. We understand how unscientific this is – some projections try to guess playing time, some don’t, more playing time is weighted the same as less playing time, more successful projection producers are weighted the same as their counterparts, etc. At the end of the year we revisit the projections and see how’d they do.

Luis Guillorme got into 10 more games last year but somehow had 4 less trips to the plate. Which is surprising because by most metrics he improved at the plate last season going from a .209/.284/.239 line to .246/.324/.361 and going from -0.3 WAR to 0.3 WAR. We all know his bat isn’t the reason why the Mets want him around, it’s his glove, which is probably why he got into more games last year – more a late inning defensive option.

2019 Stats: 45 G, 70 PA, 61 AB, HR, .246/.324/.361, 0.3 WAR, 85 DRC+

(Citations: BP projections come from the Baseball Prospectus Annual, a must read for all baseball fans and can be purchased here. ESPN comes from their fantasy baseball projections and can be found here. Both ZiPS and Steamer are found on FanGraphs. ZiPS can be found here, Steamer can be found here. BR comes from the Baseball Reference for this specific player and is linked earlier in the article)

The problem with projecting Luis is figuring out his playing time. I think he makes the team out of camp. The only thing really blocking him at this point is Lowrie and Cespedes’ health. If both of them are healthy and ready to go out of camp, then Luis gets squeezed out of a roster spot. That’s a shame because the Mets don’t have a defensive minded middle/corner infielder anywhere else on their roster. My secondary concern is Eduardo Nunez. I would pick Guillorme over Nunez every day now, even if Nunez has an amazing Spring Training. If they both have an average spring training and there’s a spot for one of them, despite Nunez not even being on the 40 man yet, I don’t trust the front office to make the right decision because Nunez used to be a star.

His projections have him hitting about what he did last year if not a tick better. I think that’s more than worth the intangibles that he brings. Plus a not fully healthy Lowrie is probably a strain on everything rather than Luis he just feels like he fits.

But I’ve been supporting Luis for a long time now and it still feels like the Mets refuse to lean into him. Use him! He’s the only one who fits his profile Here’s hoping we see more Guillorme this year!

Spring Training games start tomorrow! Thank you universe!

The Mets roster is most set it’s been in a while, there aren’t too many roster spots that are up for grabs. Mainly the battles break down in the following categories:

• Who is the 5th Starter?
• Who is the last person in the bullpen?
• How many bench players will the Mets carry?
• Are Lowrie and Cespedes opening the season with the club?

When thinking about the roster, I considered both Lowrie and Cespedes being healthy because I wanted to construct bench and bullpen spots with the most restrictions possible.

Who Has A Set Roster Spot (Batters)?

There are 11 players who spots are firm as a batter, heading into 2020. Wilson Ramos, Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis, Michael Confortio, Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Tomas Nido, Dominic Smith, and Jake Marisnick.

If we think about a bench being 12-13 players, that doesn’t leave any room. If Jed Lowrie and Yoenis Cespedes are healthy – that’s a complete roster of batters, which would leave Luis Guillorme off the roster (more on that later).

Who Has A Set Roster Spot (Pitchers)?

There are 11 pitchers who have firm roster spot (not necessarily a role) on team heading into 2020. Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello, Michael Wacha, Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia, Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, and Justin Wilson.

This means if Lowrie and Cespedes are healthy, there are only two more spots left on the roster entirely.

Battle For The Last Two Roster Spots:

You may have noticed one name off the list of pitchers who should have been there – Brad Brach. Brad Brach is going to make this team. The question the Mets will have, especially if Cespedes and Lowrie are healthy out of camp, is Brach the only pitcher left who makes the club? Is that how they’ll carry Guillorme?

If they carry Brach and another pitcher, the most likely scenario, then in terms of pitchers who are on the 40 man roster the battle will come down to Drew Smith, Tyler Bashlor and Daniel Zamora. There is also a chance a non-roster invitee player pushes there way into this list, but the Mets don’t have a lot of room in their bullpen and these options seem better than the NRI players, at least right now.

What Most Likely Happens With The Roster:

I highly doubt both Cespedes and Lowrie are healthy at the start of the season, which lets in Luis Guillorme meaning the Mets will carry Brad Brach + one of Smith/Bashlor/Zamora.

Who’s Left Off?

This leaves some long time Mets off the roster – most notably Robert Gsellman. Gsellman will have to out-duel two of Wacha/Porcello/Matz to make it on to the 40-man and I just don’t think that happens. Gsellman will also have to be better than Oswalt/Lockett/Sewald who are now at his playing tier. I still think we see Gsellman in Queens this year, he’s only one injury away and could potentially push Smith/Bashlor/Zamora out of that last spot as well.

The Only True Spot Battle:

The only real battle this spring is for the 5th rotation spot which comes down to Porcello or Wacha. Right now I’m leaning towards Wacha just out of a gut call but it feels like a toss up without watching any spring training games.

After that we are just looking at bullpen performances. The only player in the pen who I feel is on a bubble, albeit a very stable bubble is Brach which is why I listed him separately. I can’t see the Mets front office pushing any of the other bullpen guys out based on terrible performances.

In Conclusion:

And, as it is every year, injuries are the next concern. This list was made foolishly thinking everyone is healthy. We know that won’t actually happen. We’ll check in once a week or so the next several weeks to see if any of this changes.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

One of the top prospects in the Mets system was (then) 19 year old Mark Vientos. Like many of the more exciting prospects in the Mets system, Vientos is young. the closest he has ever been to peers age wise was in 2018, where he was 2.3 years below the average age in Kingsport.

Vientos was the youngest player in the 2017 draft. Drafted as a short stop, he’s now a third basemen in a system starved at the hot corner (the only other ranked players in 2019 who spent significant time at third base in the minors was Will Toffey, #19, and William Lugo, #29). BA wrote “Vientos hits the ball hard consistently thansk to hand speed and bat speed that rank among the bet in the system.” In Kingsport, his timing at the plate was “disrupted” which gives BA some pause but say that his discipline will help his OBP. They ended his write up by saying that power is key, that he projects right now as a “second-division regular or better” and that he is on his way to spending a full season at A ball.

2017 Gulf Coast: 193 PA, 174 AB, .259/.316/.397
2018 Kingsport: 262 PA, 223 AB, .287/.389/.489
2019 Columbia: 454 PA, 416 AB, .255/.300/.411

So last year we saw a dip in his on base percentage and power, but we are comparing his first full season in A ball to a tremendous season in rookie ball. In a positive note, his OBP didn’t dip too much from his first season of rookie ball and his power got better, which will be the key to his success.

The Mets are not in a rush to develop him. At the major league level, there is a glut of players at the corners that extends from a glut of players in the outfield. By the time the contracts for the corner outfielders and “third basemen” shake out, Vientos will be ready. I’m assuming he’ll be in St. Lucie this year, even if he doesn’t start there.

Each year at 213 we look through the Non-Roster Invitees to spring training and get to know them a bit. Are they in camp to get a look at big league hitting/pitching to aid their development? Are the Mets just trying to get a better look at a future rookie? Are they a veteran trying to get back to the major league level? What can we expect from them this season?

Adonis Uceta made his professional debut with the Mets back in 2013 with the DOSL team at the age of 19. The 25 year old (who will turn 26 this season) finally made it to Syracuse last year and could potentially be knocking on the door of Queens this year if he can find his way on to the 40-man roster.

Over his 7 years in the minors, Adonis has pitched into 150 games with 36 starts logging 385 innings with a 3.34 ERA and 1.244 WHIP. He fell off a lot of radars because of his 2018 performance, a shortened season that saw him make only 16 appearances with 25.1 innings posting a 4.26 ERA. but he landed himself back on the scene last year with his time in Binghamton. Over 36 games and 56.1 innings he posted a 1.44 ERA with a 1.030 WHIP. His cup of coffee in Syracuse wasn’t successful, neither was his stint in the DOWL this past off-season.

Baseball America ranked him the #21 Mets prospect back before the 2018 season. He has a fastball that sits mid to upper 90s and throws out of the three quarter arm slot. Back then is large fram and “high-effort delivery” prompted BA to write that some in the Mets organization compared him to Hansel Robles.

The Mets for many different reasons (ineffectiveness, poor roster management, injuries) tend to blow through relievers that are close to the 40-man, which is where Uceta is. If he pitches well the first 8 weeks of the season or so, we could see him in Queens by the end of the season.