Only two more projection reviews in this almost month long journey! Today we’ll look at Jacob deGrom, who will be the first pitcher in a while in this series whose projections probably make sense to look at.
| Jacob deGrom | ||||||
| IP | Record | ERA | BB | K | WHIP | |
| 2016 | 148 | 7-8 | 3.04 | 36 | 143 | 1.2 |
| Projections | ||||||
| MLB.com | 180 | 14-9 | 2.95 | 46 | 180 | 1.15 |
| Steamer | 180.1 | 11-10 | 3.49 | 46 | 177 | 1.16 |
| ZiPS | 163 | 3.31 | 41 | 162 | 1.147 | |
| ESPN | 12-7 | 3.19 | 168 | 1.17 | ||
| Baseball Prospectus | 180 | 12-10 | 3.51 | 189 | 1.18 | |
| Sporting News | 167 | 11 | 3.45 | 40 | 162 | 1.17 |
| NBC Rotoworld | 188.2 | 15-8 | 3.34 | 43 | 192 | 1.16 |
| Rotowire | 175 | 11-8 | 3.29 | 42 | 170 | 1.149 |
| Baseball America | 168 | 9 | 2.46 | 34 | 144 | 0.96 |
| FBG 2017 | 175 | 11-9 | 3.07 | 41 | 180 | 1.12 |
| Average | 175.144 | 12.6-8.7 | 3.21 | 41.625 | 172.4 | 1.1366 |
2017 Stats:
15-10, 31 G, 201.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 59 BB, 239 K, 1.187 WHIP
Jacob crossed 190 innings for the second time in his career and cruised through the 200 K mark for the second time of his career. The models had deGrom with a slight regression off the 2016 numbers, but deGrom slid more than that. He still was the best starter the Mets had last year although some projections, like Baseball America, were way off.
I was dismayed last year when I read the Baseball Prospectus projection. It’s the one I trust the most and it was the one that had deGrom struggling the most. It also was the closest to correct for the starter.
