2017 Projections Review – Jacob deGrom

Only two more projection reviews in this almost month long journey! Today we’ll look at Jacob deGrom, who will be the first pitcher in a while in this series whose projections probably make sense to look at.

Jacob deGrom
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 148 7-8 3.04 36 143 1.2
Projections
MLB.com 180 14-9 2.95 46 180 1.15
Steamer 180.1 11-10 3.49 46 177 1.16
ZiPS 163 3.31 41 162 1.147
ESPN 12-7 3.19 168 1.17
Baseball Prospectus 180 12-10 3.51 189 1.18
Sporting News 167 11 3.45 40 162 1.17
NBC Rotoworld 188.2 15-8 3.34 43 192 1.16
Rotowire 175 11-8 3.29 42 170 1.149
Baseball America 168 9 2.46 34 144 0.96
FBG 2017 175 11-9 3.07 41 180 1.12
Average 175.144 12.6-8.7 3.21 41.625 172.4 1.1366

2017 Stats:
15-10, 31 G, 201.1 IP, 3.53 ERA, 59 BB, 239 K, 1.187 WHIP

Jacob crossed 190 innings for the second time in his career and cruised through the 200 K mark for the second time of his career. The models had deGrom with a slight regression off the 2016 numbers, but deGrom slid more than that. He still was the best starter the Mets had last year although some projections, like Baseball America, were way off.

I was dismayed last year when I read the Baseball Prospectus projection. It’s the one I trust the most and it was the one that had deGrom struggling the most. It also was the closest to correct for the starter.

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