Were They Right? Reviewing Noah Syndergaard’s 2015 Projections

Noah was sensational for the Mets this year and for a period of time, he was in the running for the Rookie of the Year. He really stepped it up in the playoffs putting up great numbers, lighting up the radar gun and showing some good attitude on the mound. Projections at the start of the season were struggling to figure out how much playing time he was going to get, let’s see if they were right:

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 25 G, 120.1 IP, 118 K, 36 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.50 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 26.2 IP, 26 K, 8 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.78 ERA
MLB.com: 4-3, 50 IP, 46 K, 16 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.42 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 134.1 IP, 142 K, 38 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 7 G, 38.0 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 3.61 ERA
ESPN: 1-2, 33 K, 1.47 WHIP, 4.80 ERA

Average: 3.2-3.4, 19.3 G, 73.2 IP, 67 K, 27.2 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.77 ERA

(Originally posted here)

And here are is his 2015 numbers:
9-7, 24 G, 150 IP, 166 K, 1.05 WHIP, 3.24 ERA

Noah did great, he did way better than the projections thought he would, even the ones that were close to the amount he would actually pitch (PECOTA BP, ZiPS). He ended up with an ERA of about half a run less than projected and with a WHIP way better than predicted. It was a great first year for Syndergaard, but we already knew that.


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