The Mets have a stacked rotation at the start of the year with Harvey, Wheeler, deGrom, Colon and Niese (and Gee in the bullpen). At some point this season, Syndergaard is expected to arrive. In case you need a primer, and I’m pretty sure you don’t, Syndergaard was acquired with d’Arnaud and Becerra for Dickey, Thole and Nickeas. Syndergaard has been in the Futures game for the last two seasons and looks to make that next step soon. Let’s see what the computers think he’ll do this year.
PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 25 G, 120.1 IP, 118 K, 36 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.50 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 2-2, 26.2 IP, 26 K, 8 BB, 1.20 WHIP, 3.78 ERA
MLB.com: 4-3, 50 IP, 46 K, 16 BB, 1.28 WHIP, 3.42 ERA
ZiPS: 26 G, 134.1 IP, 142 K, 38 BB, 3.48 ERA
Steamer: 2-2, 7 G, 38.0 IP, 38 K, 12 BB, 3.61 ERA
ESPN: 1-2, 33 K, 1.47 WHIP, 4.80 ERA
Average: 3.2-3.4, 19.3 G, 73.2 IP, 67 K, 27.2 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.77 ERA
What I’m most surprised about here is the ESPN projection only because typically the ESPN projection tends to be the most bullish of the set. They are near the bottom for how much action Syndergaard will see in the majors and what he’ll be able to do. That’s why I’m also surprised about the PECOTA projections reported in the BP annual, they tend to be the most conservative, and usually correct, in the set and they see him having a major impact on the season.