Were They Right? Reviewing Lucas Duda’s 2015 Projections?

Lucas Duda is a unsung hero of this team. At several points over the last calendar year there were calls for the Mets to trade or sign someone who is statistically similar to Lucas Duda. The Mets have a player in Duda who could potentially be a top 10 first basemen in the league, at least above league average. Let’s take a look at how the 2015 projection programs did with Lucas Duda:

PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 24 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 69 RBI, .242 BA, .335 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 514 AB, 71 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, .241 BA, .335 OBP
MLB.com: 525 AB, 68 R, 28 HR, 80 RBI, .248 BA, .339 OBP
ZiPS: 562 PA, 75 R, 26 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 92 RBI, .260 BA, .359 OBP
Steamer: 619 PA, 533 AB, 68 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 75 RBI, .234 BA, .331 OBP
ESPN: .248 BA, 71 R, 27 HR, 76 RBI

Average: 571 PA, 524 BA, 69 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24.5 HR, 78 RBI, .246 BA, .340 OBP

(Originally posted here)

Here are his actual 2015 numbers:
554 PA, 67 R, 33 2B, 27 HR, 73 RBI, .244 BA, .352 OBP

Lucas Duda played almost the exact amount that the computers thought he would, so this makes this easier. Although he hit two points lower on batting average, he did better on on-base percentage. The only category the computers predicted higher than his actual production was his runs. His power and walks is the story here. He hit way more doubles than thought and his homer numbers were better too. The higher OBP suggests he did better at the plate looking for pitches.

The problem with Lucas is we are all so tuned into his streaks. We really know about all of his negative streaks, and don’t give a lot of thought to his positive streaks.

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