Lucas Duda was one of the best story lines from last season. Initially in a platoon split with Ike Davis, after an early season trade Duda was able to hit 30 homers and etch himself in as a first basemen that didn’t play terrible defense. Let’s take a look at his excellent season:
2014 Stats: 596 PA, 74 R, 27 2B, 30 HR, 92 RBI, .253 BA, .349 OBP
Do the computers think he will flash that type of power again? Let’s take a look:
PECOTA (BP): 532 PA, 63 R, 24 2B, 1 3B, 20 HR, 69 RBI, .242 BA, .335 OBP
PECOTA (MLB.com): 514 AB, 71 R, 22 HR, 78 RBI, .241 BA, .335 OBP
MLB.com: 525 AB, 68 R, 28 HR, 80 RBI, .248 BA, .339 OBP
ZiPS: 562 PA, 75 R, 26 2B, 1 3B, 26 HR, 92 RBI, .260 BA, .359 OBP
Steamer: 619 PA, 533 AB, 68 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24 HR, 75 RBI, .234 BA, .331 OBP
ESPN: .248 BA, 71 R, 27 HR, 76 RBI
Average: 571 PA, 524 BA, 69 R, 25 2B, 1 3B, 24.5 HR, 78 RBI, .246 BA, .340 OBP
It looks like he will have a power drop, but that is also typical in computer models after a 30+ homer season with the exception of a few players. The question for the Mets is, will he get 571 PA’s? If the Mets go through with the plan of having Cuddyer getting start at first, it will galvanize the amount of AB’s he’ll get, and cut through these numbers.
