213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we conclude our three part series within this series about the Mets first base race. Ike Davis and Lucas Duda are competing for the top job and today’s candidate, Josh Satin, looks to be the platoon partner. Lets see what he’s projected to do:

2013: 190 AB, 23 R, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, .279 BA, .376 OBP, .405 SLG

ESPN: 202 AB, 25 R, 4 HR, 19 RBI, 1 SB, .238 BA, .343 OBP, .351 SLG
MLB: 225 AB, 24 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB, .262 BA, .349 OBP, .369 SLG
Steamer: 93 PA, 10 R, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 1 SB, .253 BA, .337 OBP, .376 SLG
Oliver: Automatically adjusts to 600 PA, left off for average integrity
PECOTA: 266 PA, 231 AB, 28 R, 6 HR, 30 RBI, 0 SB, .254 BA, .346 OBP, .391 SLG

Average: 179.5 PA, 219.3 AB, 21.8 R, 4 HR, 20.25 RBI, .251 BA, .343 OBP, .372 SLG

His numbers are projected to be similar to Duda with a higher average a much smaller sample size. Steamer is super down on Satin’s playing time this season.

Rumors started to emerge yesterday that the Mariners will try to move one of their middle infielders, probably Nick Franklin, the 22 year old shortstop, before the end of Spring. The Mets and Mariners were possible trade partners earlier this winter when they were looking for a first basemen. Since then, they added several players that can play that position, so that is not a need or want in a trade anymore. The Mariners are looking for young pitching, something the Mets have a lot of.

The debate on Metsblog yesterday is what that young pitching looks like. Is it deGrom type of player? Vic Black? (That’s what Cerrone thinks). Franklin is not worth Vic Black, who has an important role on this team this year.

First, is Franklin worth acquiring? The best projection metric to use here is Oliver, that automatically gives each player 600 AB’s. Franklin is projected to have a .244 BA, and improvement of last year’s .225 BA (Steamer has him at .240 in 2014) and a .329 OBP. It also projects him to have some pop, 17 homers in 600 PA (Steamer 8 in 326). This is based on the pop he showed last year hitting 12 in 420 AB’s.

My first reaction is that Franklin is not worth deGrom, in that this is not the time for the Mets to give up young pitching for marginally better pieces. I still think that’s my opinion, although I admit Franklin is intriguing. I rather the Mets not make a trade until they are ready to bundle prospects together to bring in a proven, significant piece (like when they traded for Carlos Delgado years ago).

I wouldn’t be upset if the Mets acquire Franklin at a reasonable price, however I imagine it will be difficult to make that price reasonable.

The Braves have gone on an extension frenzy this off-season that continued with the signing of Andrelton Simmons today. The extensions this year are as follows:

• Andrelton Simmons – 7 Years, 58 million (arb. years + 2 Free Agent Years)
• Freddie Freeman – 8 Years, 135 million (arb years + 5 Free Agent Years)
• Craig Kimbrel – 4 Years, 42 Million (arb years + 1 Free Agent Year + 13 million option)
• Julio Teheran – 6 Years, 32.4 Million (arb years + 1 Free Agent Year, + 12 million option)
• Jason Heyward – 2 Years, 13.3 Million (arb years)

In the deals, the Braves committed 280 million to five young players. Some of the deals are very smart, some are a bit dangerous. First, as a caveat,technically Heyward’s deal is not an extension as the Braves purchased him out of his arbitration years, not beyond team control (thus what the word extension refers to).

Anyway, a deal like Julio Teheran, although very young, controls a pitcher at a very low price. If he hits the market in five years, and he stays healthy all that time, he could be looking at a much larger contract than what he is owed in 2019 or the 12 million option for 2020. But that’s the risk for the Braves, that he stays healthy for 6 years, which is tough for a pitcher to do.

Same deal with Simmons. He could still be a Super II player this season. If he projects like the Braves expect him to, then this could be a very cheap deal for the Braves and provide stability in the infield (especially with Freeman locked up). But its early. There are way too many examples to list of players with tools that show them off in the rookie year, and never return to that. In this case Simmons becomes expensive.

The deal with the most risk is Freeeman, because it goes well beyond the arbitration years, but also the financial commitment. Freeman is a good player, but hasn’t established himself yet. David Wright signed a large contract extension last year, but that was after a smaller contract that allowed him to prove himself.

But this shows the changing landscape of contracts. The steal the Mets got on Wright and Reyes to get them out of their arb. years will probably never happen again. The Mets are probably watching all of this closely as it is unlikely the will be able to sign d’Arnaud, Wheeler, Harvey and Syndegaard to deals like Wright, Reyes and Niese.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we continue our look at first base. Yesterday we looked at Ike Davis, today we will look at his main competition, and also outfield competition in Lucas Duda. (Tomorrow we will look at Josh Satin). Anyway let’s look at Duda’s projections:

2013: 318 AB, 42 R, 15 HR, 0 SB .223 BA, .352 OBP, .415 SLG

ESPN: 346 AB, 45 R, 13 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB, .249 BA, .357 OBP, .408 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 342 PA, 37 R, 11 HR, 39 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .334 OBP, .404 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 18 HR, 65 RBI, 3 SB, .217 BA, .327 OBP, .372 SLG
PECOTA: 331 PA, 287 AB, 38 R, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .333 OBP, .415 SLG

Average: 424 PA, 344 AB, 47 R, 13.8 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .237 BA, .320 OBP, .404

Basically, the models really don’t support Duda over Davis at all. They suggest that Duda will not have the power that Davis has next season. Oliver projects all batters to 600 plate appearances, which is why the numbers seem higher than other models, but even that one slams Duda with batting average. If these projections hold true, it is also difficult to see how Duda fits into the outfield also. Duda is in better shape this spring, so the games in March will matter.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today, tomorrow and the day after, we’ll look at the three likely candidates for significant play time at first base: Ike Davis, Lucas Duda and Josh Satin, starting with the most likely to get the job, Ike Davis. Short story about Davis if you’ve been under a rock for the last two years, starts off slow and then gets it together late. 2012 was better than 2013 as he was able to get it together in a big way at the end of the season. There was a lot of talk about moving him this off-season, but that didn’t happen. Anyway, he’s here, still has a lot of potential, and is scheduled to take a lot of AB’s this spring. Lets take a look at his projections:

2013: 317 AB, 37 R, 9 HR, 33 RBI, 4 SB, .205 BA, .326 OBP, .334 SLG

ESPN: 441 AB, 64 R, 20 HR, 71 RBI, 2 SB, .234 BA, .339 OBP, .422 SLG
MLB: 400 AB, 50 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 3 SB, .245 BA, .345 OBP, .403 SLG
Steamer: 409 PA, 47 R, 17 HR, 52 RBI, 2 SB, .238 BA, .340 OBP, .439 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 22 HR, 72 RBI, 3 SB, .216 BA, .327 OBP, .398 SLGPECOTA: 472 PA, 410 AB, 57 R, 19 HR, 64 RBI, 2 SB, .236 BA, .330 OBP, .428 SLG

Average: 493.7 PA, 417 AB, 57.2 R, 18.6 HR, 62.8 RBI, 2.4 SB, .234 BA, .336 OBP, .418 SLG

The computers and projecting a slight bounce back in Davis’s stats and are also projecting him to split time at first place. The question is will he steadily put these numbers up all season or will he boom and bust like he has in his career. If the latter is the case, which it probably will be, if the boom is longer than the bust, then he could easily break these projections on the high side.

Saw this tweet floating around twitter today:

#Mets @CY24_7 talks hitting insight from Rod Carew, moving back to the NL and more. Video: http://t.co/Bp071Yhx5W pic.twitter.com/w71S9wSE6x

— New York Mets (@Mets) February 18, 2014

The word on the street is the Mets dropped the alternate skyline logo with a black skyline this year. This logo and patch is usually found on the Black Jerseys. Word earlier this year that changed (I can’t confirm again because I can’t find the black jerseys online and don’t have access to a style guide).

It will be interesting if this alternate orange skyline pictured above turns out to be a a real thing outside of the St. Lucie.
 

When I was in high school (which wasn’t too long ago, class of 2007), the Mets age of the internet was just about in full swing (minus #MetsTwitter). When I started high school, that wasn’t the case.

As a high school student in Baltimore, I didn’t really have too much access to Mets news, especially in my freshman and sophomore year. Back then there was Mets.com, a few other Mets sites I didn’t know about yet, the Baltimore Sun if the Mets did something major, 20 second clips on ESPNNEWS and Baseball Tonight, the WFAN signal I could pick up on a clear night (sorta) and TBS when the Mets played the Braves.

For me, searching for any Mets news I could find, the baseball guides that come out of the start of a season became a yearly routine. They would come out, and I would pick them up at the local bookstore or grocery store. Guides like Athlon Sports, you know guides that change their cover for whatever major league market they are in, spend about two to four pages on each team etc.

Looking back on how technology has changed how we get baseball news (hell, Metsblog.com is still the go to, but you can faster information following Baron’s and Cerrone’s twitter feed) these guides don’t have as much of a use to me any more. Like most physical print, they suffer from being behind signings that happened after publication and sometimes are clearly written by someone who doesn’t know the team.

For example, one guide, I’ll leave the name unknown, for this year, listed key series for each team this year. For the Mets they named the Diamondbacks saying, “The Mets don’t have rivalry history with the Diamondbacks, but they will now since the series occurs during David Wright Printed Canvas Night.”

Yep. We are going to have a rivalry now with the Diamondbacks. Giveaway days tell all.

Looking at the rack of these magazines, which have exploded with the amount of people playing Fantasy Baseball now, or at least with how the economy around Fantasy Sports now, I feel a sense of nostalgia. I also realize how lucky I am to live in NYC area with internet access.

GO METS. BEAT THE DIAMONDBACKS.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

If the Mets are going to be a contender in 2014, a lot is riding on Travis d’Arnaud. Not only does he have to call a great game night after night, but he also needs to perform offensively. He is still considered one of the best Mets prospects, but injury concerns are all over the place.

2013: 99 AB, 4 R, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 0 SB, .202 BA, .286 OBP, .263 SLG

ESPN: 414 AB, 46 R, 12 HR, 45 RBI, 1 SB, .239 BA, .325 OBP, .389 SLG
MLB: 380 AB, 44 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB, .263 BA, .346 OBP, .368 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 44 R, 13 HR, 49 RBI, 2 SB, .254 BA, .320 OBP, .418 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 65 R, 16 HR, 70 RBI, 2 SB, .241 BA, .312 OBP, .397 SLG
PECOTA: 489 PA, 441 AB, 55 R, 16 HR, 58 RBI, 1 SB, .250 BA, .315 OBP, .414 SLG

Average: 505.7 PA, 411.7 AB, 50.8 R, 13 HR, 53.6 RBI, 1.4 SB, .249 BA, .324 OBP, .397

This was an interesting projection article to write because the projections are all over the place. Four of the five don’t think d’Arnaud will complete a full slate of plate appearances. Some, like ESPN, project a lot of power in a few AB’s (well not a lot, but a sizable amount)  but a low amount of RBI’s. They also have no idea how to project his batting average. In short, he’s a rookie that could have a lot of promise this year, or could take him a season or two to get up to speed. He should be curious to watch in 2014.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Curtis Granderson was the big signing of the off-season. As for his 2014 campaign, there are two questions that hang over projector’s heads. First, how will Granderson respond to his injury from last year. Second, how will Granderson’s numbers respond to not being in Yankee Stadium this year. Let’s take a look!

2013: 214 AB, 31 R, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 8 SB, .229 BA, .317 OBP, .407 SLG

ESPN: 549 AB, 87 R, 24 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .233 BA, .323 OBP, .426 SLG
MLB: 549 AB, 86 R, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB, .242 BA, .329 OBP, .450 SLG
Steamer: 581 PA, 71 R, 24 HR, 68 RBI, 11 SB, .228 BA, .320 OBP, .429 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 19 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, .220 BA, .306 OBP, .390 SLG
PECOTA: 610 PA, 532 AB, 79 R, 26 HR, 82 RBI, 15 SB, .229 BA, .315 OBP, .434 SLG

Average: 597 PA, 543.3 AB, 78.8 R, 24.2 HR, 75.4 RBI, 13 SB, .230 BA, .319 OBP, .426 SLG

I’m a bit surprised by the Oliver projection, it seems oddly low for Granderson. I’m also a bit surprised at PECOTA, PECOTA generally takes players down a few notches, but projected him better than ESPN, Steamer and Oliver. I’m looking forward to seeing if Granderson can shatter these expectations this year.

Adam Rubin today posted a photo of Tejada arriving at camp today. It is difficult in street clothes to make a statement if he changed from the Fitness program because his style of outside the Mets uniform is inline with the popular fashion styles of wearing tight fitting clothing. So he always looks stronger compared to in a baseball uniform. Luckily Newsday posted a picture of him arriving in article posted last year. I took both photographs and put them side by side. I didn’t make them equal sizes because it distorted the vertical to horizontal ratio:

The picture on the left is 2014, the picture on the right is 2013. When compared to images from 2012, you can tell he’s getting older. I’m curious to see how this translates on the baseball field.