213 Miles From Shea

Adam Rubin today posted a photo of Tejada arriving at camp today. It is difficult in street clothes to make a statement if he changed from the Fitness program because his style of outside the Mets uniform is inline with the popular fashion styles of wearing tight fitting clothing. So he always looks stronger compared to in a baseball uniform. Luckily Newsday posted a picture of him arriving in article posted last year. I took both photographs and put them side by side. I didn’t make them equal sizes because it distorted the vertical to horizontal ratio:

The picture on the left is 2014, the picture on the right is 2013. When compared to images from 2012, you can tell he’s getting older. I’m curious to see how this translates on the baseball field.

Using last year as a model, it was expected that some high level free agents would still be on the market as spring training starts thanks to the CBA. This year there are a good amount of free agents in the group, such as Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz. They’re interesting because their opposite counter parts have signed. Outside of the Drew, the best shortstop on the market was Jhonny Peralta, held back PED’s. He signed a four year deal with a 53 million dollar deal. Cruz is similar to Granderson. Possibly a bit better (injury concerns, not playing in Yankee Stadium for a while) but Granderson didn’t have a PED scandal.

So one player with PED signs a major deal, blocks the clean player. A similar clean player makes it more difficult for the PED player to sign.

There are the baseball reasons why the Mets should sign Drew. They need a shortstop, someone to hit leadoff, etc. There are also reasons the Mets should sign Cruz. Cruz pushes the power through the lineup, allows the Mets to toy with the idea of Granderson second in the lineup, possibly lead off with Murphy.

Initially at the start of the off-season, both Drew and Cruz were 15 million a year players (well, what they were asking for). Drew is much less than that, Cruz is near that, but would require a longer term deal. Cruz would make the lineup better, Drew fills more holes.

Why does Drew make more financial sense?

Well the Mets weren’t originally looking for two big free agent Outfielders (or more generally two major acquisitions) so they also got Chris Young. If the Mets sign Nelson Cruz, then money wise, if they want to use their recent acquisitions, they run Granderson/Cruz/Chris Young with Eric Young Jr / Lagares / Duda rotating in for Chris Young and off days. It spells huge depth, but it makes it really makes Chris Young redundant.

If the Mets could spend more money, they might be able to get both Cruz and Drew at below inflated market price. In that case sign both. But if they can only sign one, Drew would cost less, and free up more for next off season or something mid-season. If the Mets want to go with depth in the outfield and fix lead off, then sign both.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Daniel Murphy is finally getting the respect he deserves from people who write Fantasy Articles. probably because has had a few seasons now of consistent performance a position that often struggles to have consistent performers. Anyway lets look at his stats and projections:

2013: 658 AB, 92 R, 13 HR, 78 RBI, 23 SB, .286 BA, .319 OBP, .415 SLG

ESPN: 603 AB, 78 R, 9 HR, 64 RBI, 15 SB, .289 BA, .324 OBP, .410 SLGMLB: 610 AB, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB, .287 BA, .333 OBP, .410 SLG
Steamer: 576 PA, 65 R, 9 HR, 56 RBI, 11 SB, .280 BA, .323 OBP, .408 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 71 R, 11 HR, 64 RBI, 17 SB, .280 BA, .319 OBP, .405 SLG
PECOTA: 611 PA, 567 AB, 72 R, 56 RBI, 11 HR, 13 SB, .274 BA, .316 OBP, .400 SLG

Average: 595.7 PA, 593.3 AB, 74 R,10.2 HR,  62.6 RBI, 13.6 SB, .282 BA, .323 OBP, .407 SLG

A lot of his stat categories take a drop, be he is also projected to have about a 60 AB drop, which explains that. His average is projected to be close but a little less, his OBP close but a little more and SLG drops a bit. In other words, just like his play on the field they expect him to be consistent.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. Over the next few weeks we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

First up is the Captain, David Wright:

2013 Stats: 430 AB, 63 R, 18 HR, 58 RBI, 17 SB, .307 BA, .390 OBP, .514 SLG

ESPN: 554 AB, 88 R, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 18 SB, .303 BA, .388 OBP, .502 SLG
MLB: 550 AB, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB, .302 BA, .379 OBP, .498 SLGOliver: 600 PA, 84 R, 21 HR, 79 RBI, 16 SB, .294 BA, .378 OBP, .484 SLG
Steamer: 612 PA, 78 R, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 14 SB, .290 BA, .376 OBP, .476 SLG
PECOTA: 606 PA, 531 AB, 77 R, 19 HR, 75 RBI, 17 SB, .272 BA, .356 OBP, .443 SLG

Average Stats: 606 PA, 545 AB, 82.8 R, 20.8 HR, 80.8 RBI, 16.4 SB, .292 BA, .375 OBP, .481 SLG

It is difficult to compare his 2013 stats to his projected tats because of the difference in at bats. Most of the the projections are in agreement about Wright’s OBP, with the excpetion of PECOTA. They also are in agreement regarding Wright’s power numbers. On the whole, everyone is expecting a conservative, modest drop in production from the Captain but still a solid season.

ESPN has rolled out their top 300 players for fantasy baseball, let’s see how the Mets did:

• David Wright (19)
• Murphy (122)
• Granderson (154)
• Wheeler (176)
• Parnell (188)
• Colon (231)
• Gee (253)
• Eric Young Jr (261)
• Niese (279)

If every team had near equal talent, then every team should have 10 players in the top 300, the Mets have 9, which isn’t that far off. It is curious that the second best outfielder the Mets have, in terms of fantasy points is Eric Young Jr. (probably due to stolen bases) and he isn’t guaranteed a spot to play everyday.

In ESPN’s defense, how often does a league leader in stolen bases not have a guaranteed position? (Although I have drafted Pierre for that even when I knew he wouldn’t play everyday).

Spring Training officially started today even though it feels like almost the entire organization has already reported to camp.

What makes the position battles different this year than last year is this year, when a player doesn’t win the position outright, they have a legitimate chance to win a position at another position on the field based on how others perform. First, the depth chart for position, which is my opinion:

First Base:
– Ike Davis
– Lucas Duda
– Josh Satin (Slips to #2 depending on who wins #1)
– Daniel Murphy (Rises to 1 if Davis/Duda fail AND Eric Young needs to play)
– Wilmer Flores (Davis/Duda Fail, decide to keep Murphy at Second)

Second Base:
– Daniel Murphy
– Eric Young (Only considered if he can’t break the OF, Davis/Duda fail and force Murphy to move)
– Wilmer Flores (If spring training shows his bat is necessary, can’t handle SS and Davis/Duda fail)

Shortstop:
– Ruben Tejada
– Wilmer Flores (If he can show that he can field SS)

Outfield:
– Curtis Granderson (Lock)
– Juan Lagares (Should be a lock, needs to hit)
– Chris Young (If he can hit, he’s in)
– Eric Young Jr (They want him in badly somewhere in this lineup)
– Lucas Duda (Davis and Duda equally perform well and Duda does considerably better than someone above him on this list)

Stating Rotation, 5th Spot:
– Jenrry Mejia
– Jon Lannan (Can opt out if he doesn’t make Major League Roster)
– Daisuke Matsuzaka (Can opt out if he doesn’t make Major League Roster)

Set-Up Man:
– Vic Black
– Jose Valverde
– Kyle Farnsworth (Most likely one one of Farnsworth or Valverde makes the roster because they are both on Minor League Deals)

Commentary:

For the position battles, this comes down to the Davis and Duda. If only one of them is successful, it makes first base easier to forecast and takes one out of the outfield race. If both bomb, really bomb, which I don’t think would happen, then Murphy slides over to first and Eric Young to second, making the outfield really simple.

I am biased when it comes to the outfield because I want a Lagares/Granderson/Chris Young outfield for the defense. Because of that, I really want Lagares to perform well this spring. He has the least developed bat out of the group and it looks like this will become a contest of offense. He also has minor league options which can hurt him. At the same time, it is really difficult to deny his defense.

Wilmer Flores probably starts the year in the minors. He needs to find a place on the Mets to play. Second is blocked by Murphy and Third by Wright. He could play first, and should get some reps there this spring but also should be tried at short stop. Same problem with Eric Young Jr. he needs as a place to play on the field to get in the lineup. If one of Young Jr or Flores could play SS, then a lot of this goes away.

As for the rotation, Mejia is the most exciting choice and should be his to lose outright. Lannan and Dice-K have an advantage because they need to make the major league roster for the Mets to keep them (well not need to, but they could easily go some place else if they have a strong spring and don’t make the team). This also impacts Farnsworth and Valverde since they are also both on minor league deals. To get two or more out of the four on the roster will be tough.

MLB.com just released their 2014 Fantasy Projections and rankings which you could find here, but I collected the Mets players they have below. First the following Mets players made the overall top rankings (with the number rank in parenthesis): Wright (23), Granderson (71), Murphy (109), Parnell (212), Gee (230), Colon (253), Niese (271), Wheeler (285), and Young (291).

Projections:

• Ike Davis: .244 BA, 58 R, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 3 SB
• Lucas Duda: .246 BA, 43 R, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 1 SB
• Josh Satin: .262 BA, 24 R, 4 HR, 23 RBI, 1 SB
• Daniel Murphy: .287 BA, 84 R, 11 HR, 73 RBI, 14 SB
• Ruben Tejada: .273 BA, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB
• David Wright: .302 BA, 87 R, 23 HR, 89 RBI, 17 SB
• Travis d’Arnaud: .263 BA, 44 R, 8 HR, 46 RBI, 1 SB
• Eric Young Jr: .245 BA, 53 R, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 30 SB
• Chris Young: .222 BA, 64 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB
• Juan Lagares: .259 BA, 44 R, 4 HR, 30 RBI, 9 SB
• Curtis Granderson: .242 BA, 86 R, 28 HR, 88 RBI, 13 SB

• Bartolo Colon: 12-10, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
• Jon Niese: 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• Dillon Gee: 10-12, 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
• Zack Wheeler: 10-10 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
• Daisuke Matsuzaka: 2-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
• John Lannan: 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP
• Jenrry Mejia: 5-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
• Noah Syndergaard: 5-5, 4.30 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
• Bobby Parnell: 30 SV, 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP