213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

The Mets closer is the second to last person in this series! Bobby Parnell is coming back from an operation and as I’m writing this on 2/21, he is behind schedule but he could still perform with the team at the start of the season. He is the anchor at the back of the rotation and the Mets will perform as he performs. Lets see what the computer think:

2013: 49 G, 50.0 IP, 12 BB, 44 K, 22 SV, 2.16 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

ESPN: 68 G, 67.0 IP, 20 BB, 61 K, 34 SV, 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
MLB: 53 IP, 25 BB, 46 K, 2.89 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 30 SV
Steamer: 65 G, 65.0 IP, 28 SV, 3.14 ERA
Oliver: 60 G, 60.0 IP, 3.13 ERA
PECOTA: 64 G, 68.0 IP, 22 BB, 66 K, 28 SV, 3.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Average: 64 G, 62.6 IP, 22 BB, 58 K, 30 SV, 3.05 ERA, 1.19 WHIP

Looks like the models are predicting a good season for Bobby! Lets hope it holds true.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Chris Young is fighting for a starting job in the outfield. He could easily win it outright, or find himself in a platoon with Eric Young Jr, or see Lucas Duda cut into his playing time. Anyway, the Mets are hoping that Chris Young has a season similar to Byrd did last year. Lets take a look at the computers:

2013: 335 AB, 46 R, 12 HR, 40 RBI, 10 SB, .200 BA, .280 OBP, .379 SLG

ESPN: 387 AB, 53 R, 14 HR, 47 RBI, 13 SB, .222 BA, .308 OBP, .395 SLG
MLB: 500 AB, 64 R, 18 HR, 60 RBI, 15 SB, .222 BA, .300 OBP, .392 SLG
Steamer: 536 PA, 59 R, 17 HR, 58 RBI, 13 SB, .225 BA, .311 OBP, .402 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 68 R, 20 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB, .217 BA, .300 OBP, .390 SLG
PECOTA: 473 PA, 414 AB, 57 R, 15 HR, 55 RBI, 15 SB, .219 BA, .309 OBP, .387 SLG

Average: 536 PA, 434 AB, 60.2 R, 16.8 HR, 57.6 RBI, 13.8 SB, .221 BA, .306 OBP, .393 SLG

The good news for Chris Young, and the Mets, is that all of the simulations show an increase in performance this year. It isn’t all star production, but for a Mets team riddled with offense problems, this looks alright. The Mets would like his OBP to step up a bit, which is down thanks to Young’s free swing. If he puts up the numbers in the average, plus whatever his counterpart provides, this could be a good season for the Mets outfield (with Curtis and other included).

Half of the the Mets squad took the trip to Viera yesterday to face off with the Nationals, who won the game 11-5. Here’s what we saw:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Lagares went 1-4, still hitting .333 on the Spring
• Captain Kirk went 2-4 with a 2B as he tries to help himself from a distant position get on the team
• Campbell continues a strong camp 2-4, 2 R, 2B
• Lutz 2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, HR…Nice.
• Mejia allowed a run, none earned over 2.0 innings of work work with one hit, two walks and three walks. Great start
• deGrom had another strong outing, 2 innings with one hit and two strikeouts

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Mazzoni had a dreadful inning allowing 7 earned runs in one inning
• Church allowed 2 earned runs over 1 inning
• Allen 0-4, .077 BA
• Brown 0-4, .091 BA

The Future Oriented Mets Fan knows that we are only a day or so away from Wright and Murphy making their spring debut. The Mets are going to the Astros today.

The Mets played the Marlins at home today and lost by the score of 5-2 in the 10th inning. It was one of two games the Mets played in the afternoon. If you are like me and missed the game, here’s what you need to know, in a slightly snarky tone.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Eric Young had a 2-3 day in his second day in a row of playing
• Satin went 1-3 with a double
• Gee allowed one run over 2.1 innings with 4 hits, no walks and a strikeout.
• Torres went three innings, allowing 3 hits, one run, none earned, a walk and a strikeout
• Valverde had a clean inning of work
• Carreno, largely unknown, had a clean inning with three strikeouts

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Gonzalez German blow a save 🙁 The Pessimistic Fan doesn’t get the idea that it is just spring
• Omar went 0-2
• Curtis 0-2, d’Arnaud 0-2: This isn’t really terrible but I felt like I needed another bullet point here

The future oriented Mets fan knows: that this website still has to post the Game 7 review before we talk about today’s game

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Eric Young is one of the players fighting for a spot in the outfield. Terry Collins wants Young’s bat in the lineup as much as possible, as he one of the closest players the Mets have to a leadoff hitter, and he is is the reining leader in stolen bases. Anyway, we’ve already gone over Juan Lagares, who is his main competition and tomorrow we’ll go over Chris Young.  Lets look at EYJ’s stats:

2013: 539 AB, 70 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 46 SB, .249 BA, .310 OBP, .336 SLG

ESPN: 450 AB, 61 R, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 38 SB, .251 BA, .319 OBP, .338 SLG
MLB: 450 AB, 60 R, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 34 SB, .244 BA, .310 OBP, .311 SLG
Steamer: 419 PA, 46 R, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 28 SB, .250 BA, .317 OBP, .341 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 76 R, 2 HR, 36 RBI, 48 SB, .256 BA, .320 OBP, .332 SLG
PECOTA: 378 PA, 334 AB, 48 R, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 29 SB, .234 BA, .307 OBP, .317 SLG

Average: 466 PA, 411 AB, 58.2 R, 2.4 HR, 28.4 RBI, 35.4 SB, .247 BA, .315 OBP, .323 SLG

The computers see a drop in power, and a slight raise in his OBP. There is a drop in speed, but that’s normal after a big speed season. He looks to have a solid season, maybe not a solid season for a person aiming for lead off, but it’s not terrible either.

(Seems like a good place to mention this article was written on 2/21)

The Astros came to camp yesterday and so did the Grandy Man. It was a pretty great day to get excited about Curtis Granderson and Wheeler as the Mets beat the Astros 6-2 and won their second game in a row. Anyway, some perspective:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Curtis Granderson smack two homeruns
• Wheeler pitch 3 innings, allow two hits, no walks, no runs and strikeout 3
• Eric Young Jr. get into a game this year, went 0-2, but walked and scored a run. OBP of .333
• Chris Young 1-3, R, 2B, RBI
• d’Arnaud with two hits on the day
• Farnsworth with a clean inning
• Black walked three, but didn’t allow any runs

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Curtis Granderson not hit any opposite field homers. Tell this Mets fan to shush.
• Black walk three, this Mets fan will ignore the getting out of the inning part
• Allen 1-5 on the day, .111 BA in the Spring
• Satin 0-2, .200 in the Spring
• Teagarden 0-2, 2 K, .167 BA on the spring

The Future Oriented Mets Fan knows the Mets are playing two games today with a split squad. Dillon Gee starts against the Marlins at home (PSL). Mejia gets his first start of the Spring at Space Coast against the Nationals