213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Josh Edgin will also be competing for part of the crowded bullpen competition. It has become crowded due to Lannan, Dice K, Farnsworth and Valverde all on minor league deals trying to push in. Edgin is another young arm, like Black, who looks to become a mainstay in the pen. Lets see what the numbers look like:

2013: 34 G, 28.2 IP, 12 BB, 20 K, 1 SV, 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

ESPN: 65 G, 52.0 IP, 23 BB, 44 K, 1 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Steamer: 55 G, 55.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3 SV
Oliver: 55 G, 57.0 IP, 3.95 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 23 BB, 56 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Average: 57.25 G, 55.4 IP, 23 BB, 50 K, 3.93, 1.29 WHIP

The models have him performing slightly worse than last year, but also have him pitching a complete season out of the pen. The computers feel that he will be reliable, borderline good pitcher out of the pen. Which is similar to colloquial thinking

The Mets played the fourth game of the spring today against the Braves in Disney. Score wise, if you’re interested in that during the spring, the Mets won the game 6-2 picking up their first win of the spring. They were in lead 1-0 the majority of the day before the Braves slipped to a late 2-1 lead. Then the Mets scored 5 runs in the top of ninth to put them in the lead for good. But the real story of the day was Syndergaard putting on a show for two innings. Anyway some analysis:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Noah Syndergaard allowing only one hit, no walks and no runs over two innings of work with two strikeouts. Apparently according to those who saw the game he looked good
• Familia, who is battling Edgin for a bullpens spot, pitched two innings with an identical line to Syndergaard
• Edgin still walked two, and allowed one hit, but he got out of the inning with no runs
• Socolavich and German also had nice outings
• Andrew Brown hit a triple. ANDREW BROWN HIT A TRIPLE. WHAT.
• Vaughn and Campbell both had nice days at the plate

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Chris Young went 0-3 with two strikeouts
• Clark walked, but then went 0-4
• Flores went 0-4

The Future Oriented Mets Fan Knows that the Mets come back to PSL tomorrow to play the Astros

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Vic Black is slated to be a late inning player out of the pen this year, possibly closing if Parnell isn’t on track. Lets take a look at how the computer models think Black will do this year:

2013: 18 G, 17.0 IP, 6 BB, 15 K, 1 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

ESPN: 70 G, 66.0 IP, 32 BB, 68 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Steamer: 45 G, 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA
Oliver: 50 G, 58.0 IP, 3.91 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 26 BB, 66 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Average: 54.75 G, 56.7 IP, 29 BB, 67 K, 3.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

In addition to the above, ESPN said 6 saves, and Steamer said 1 save. It looks like to the computer, Vic Black will have a good, borderline strong year out of the pen. To go to the next level, he will need to drop his WHIP, since that will also effect the runners already on the bases from scoring.

The Mets played Game 3 of the Spring today in Jupiter, Florida as they dropped the game to the Cardinals by the score of 7-1. While the game was a little slow, since it was a Spring Training game, there are always a few things we can look at.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Dice-K rebound nicely from his first inning where he threw a lot of pitches and allowed a run with a clean second inning. With the success of John Lannan in his last start and Mejia yet to pitch, Dice-K needs more innings like that second one to make the team.
• Even though Lagares was hitless, he did walk. OBP!
• Curtis Granderson 1-2, 2B, BB. Nice.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Leathersich had a sloppy inning. His stuff was there but he couldn’t locate, tried to throw instead of pitch, messed around and allowed 4 runs in 2/3rds of an inning.
• Davis struggled at the plate today going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. He now has three strikeouts in 6 AB, he also has a homer so there’s that.

The Future Oriented Mets Fan is looking forward to tomorrow’s trip to Disney where Noah “Thor” Syndergaard will get the start.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Bartolo Colon represents the major starting rotation free agent acquisition that the Mets made this off-season. He is serving the role of stop gap for Harvey on a two-year deal and while he can’t match Harvey’s numbers, his experience is fantastic for the younger pitchers on the roster. It is a bit of a mystery what to expect from Colon who seems to keep bringing it year after year. Here are the predicted numbers for Colon:

2013: 30 G, 30 GS, 190.1 IP, 18-6, 29 BB, 117 K, 2.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.53 K/9

ESPN: 25 G, 25 GS, 158.0 IP, 10 W, 28 BB, 101 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.75 K/9
MLB: 169.0 IP, 12-10, 33 BB, 113 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Steamer: 30 G, 30 GS, 192.0 IP, 12-11, 3.78 ERA, 6.52 K/9
Oliver: 28 G, 28 G, 175.0 IP, 12-8, 3.45 ERA, 5.66 K/9
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 9.4-13.5, 35 BB, 124 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Average: 28 G, 28 GS, 173.6 IP, 11.1 – 10.6, 32 BB, 112.6 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.1 K/9

What’s amazing is all of the computers still project Colon to have a great difference in his walks and strikeouts, which is his career strength. The computer models still all have him having a solid season, not nearly as good as last year, but still very solid. It’s exciting to think about if he could closer to 2013 than the computer suggests.

The Mets kicked off March, by playing their second spring training game of the season against a split squad Marlins team. I’m not sure what the rule is for the home team, but the away team has to bring four players to start every game that could be considered regulars. The Mets barely had 4 major leaguers in the starting lineup (that is to say, they definitely did not have four starters in the lineup). Actually thinking about the lineup, the only starter in the lineup was Chris Young. Anyway, the Mets lost 9-1.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Lucas Duda smashed, really smashed, a solo homer. He and Davis are off to good starts.
• Lannan had an excellent outing. Two innings, 26 pitches, 1 hit, no walks, no runs, 3 strikeouts. He also worked very quickly.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Edgin really struggled keeping pitches down and locating pitches. Just a bad first start. Hopefully he can put this behind him and rebound in the next start. It does expose the Mets LHP problem in the bullpen, specifically in specialist.
• Edgin’s inning also just had some odd defense problems. Duda tried to turn a tough double play and ended up eating the ball. That’s rough for him because Davis’ defense is his underrated aspects of his game
• Seratelli struggled at the plate today, 0-3, 3 K’s. Yikes.
• Lutz went 0-3 with 3 K’s too.

The Future Oriented Mets Fan is looking forward to next week when Wright and Murphy start getting into games. Also the Mets travel to Jupiter tomorrow to play the Cardinals. No SNY coverage but WOR is on the call.

The Aesthetically Focused Mets Fan noticed that the Marlins black BP’s today are an improvement over their black alternates. I mean they are still bad, but no teal drop shadow on the back numbers was a huge improvement.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Dillon Gee over the last few seasons has become a crucial part of the team. When healthy, he eats up innings and is consistent start to start. Lets see how the projection models use that information in its models:

2013: 199.0 IP, 32 G, 32 GS, 47 BB, 142 K, 12 -11, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

ESPN: 205.0 IP, 33 G, 33 GS, 59 BB, 152 K, 12 W, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
MLB: 189.0 IP, 10-12, 49 BB, 150 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Steamer: 163.0 IP, 29 G, 29 GS,  10-11, 4.16 ERA
Oliver: 162.0 IP, 26 G, 26 GS, 10-8, 3.94 ERAPECOTA: 189.0 IP, 30 G, 30 GS, 9.8-14.9, 56 BB, 160 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Average: 181.5 IP, 29.5 G, 29.5 GS, 10.6-13.4, 54.6 BB, 154 K, 4.01 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

The computers say that Gee will have a good season, just not as good as last year. This is a good sign for the Mets as they will need a strong performance out of their 4th start to have a shot at the playoffs this year.

The Mets played their first Spring Training Game yesterday! It was great to see the boys of Queens go out and play some baseball for the first time since the fall. Anyway, lets look at the stats of the game and over-analyze the game:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Ike Davis smashed a 2 Run Homer.
• Doubles Doubles Doubles! Duda, d’Arnaud, Puello and Lagares all hit doubles. (Twitter peeps said that the Lagares double may have been a home run knocked down by the wind)
• Montero and deGrom! Montero and deGrom looked really good pitching 2 perfect innings each. Montero struck out 2 while deGrom struck out 4. Very nice to see.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Some poor fundies between Puello and Kolarek that allowed a run to score on a bad throw and a bad covering of the plate.
• Ike Davis Homer. The pessimistic Mets fan will remind you that he got off to a strong start in Spring before tanking at the start of the season. Tell the pessimistic Mets fan to go away.

For the Future Oriented Mets Fan: The Mets take on the Marlins Splits Squad Team at Tradition Field in PSL

For the Past Oriented Mets Fan: The Mets are now 0-1 on the season after splitting an intrasquad game the day before