213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

(Warning: This article is being written on 2/21, it is very possible that the Mets have traded or signed for another shortstop by the time this posts)

Ruben Tejada may be even more scrutinized this winter than Ike Davis. Between the calls for Peralta, then a trade for a shortstop, then Stephen Drew and possibly Franklin, the Mets have stuck by Tejada. Tejada also attended a fitness camp this off-season, something that is not reflected in the stats we are about to go over. Ruben had a strong 2012 and a weak 2013, lets see what happens in 2014:

2013: 208 AB, 20 R, 0 HR, 10 RBI, 2 SB, .202 BA, .259 OBP, .260 SLG

ESPN: 437 AB, 48 R, 1 HR, 30 RBI, 4 SB, .259 BA, .313 OBP, .323 SLG
MLB: 477 AB, 60 R, 3 HR, 44 RBI, 4 SB, .273 BA, .328 OBP, .354 SLG
Steamer: 524 PA, 50 R, 3 HR, 38 RBI, 6 SB, .260 BA, .317 OBP, .339 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 54 R, 2 HR, 44 RBI, 6 SB, .239 BA, .291 OBP, .305 SLG
PECOTA: 525 PA, 473 BA, 46 R, 3 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .247 BA, .301 OBP, .320 SLG

Average: 549 PA, 463 AB, 51.6 R, 2.4 HR, 39.4 RBI, 4.8 SB, .256 BA, .310 OBP, .328 SLG

The computer programs see a large jump in production from last year, not quite 2012 levels, but way better than last year. This seems to go with the idea that Tejada can hold his own in the lineup if other players around him succeed. Franklin and Drew are still nice options because they have more pop than Tejada, and in Franklin’s situation, a larger ceiling, but the Mets have some internal options that are a few seasons away from coming up as well. The goal for Tejada this year is to work on his OBP, that’s where his strength is.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Juan Lagares is my pick for center field because of his defense. However, TC is being offensively minded and Lagares has options, so he could easily see himself as the odd man out. For him to stay, he will need to produce with the bat. While I have visions of Lagares, Granderson and Chris Young running a great outfield, I understand that my views on that are minority. On March 5th and 6th we will look at the projections for both Eric Young and Chris Young, today lets focus on a player who could have / should have won a gold glove for defense last year, Lagares:

2013: 392 AB, 35 R, 4 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB, .242 BA, .281 OBP, .352 SLG

ESPN: 258 AB, 24 R, 3 HR, 20 RBI, 6 SB, .240 BA, .281 OBP, .345 SLG
MLB: 370 AB, 40 R, 4 HR, 28 RBI, 8 SB, .249 BA, .303 OBP, .351 SLG
Steamer: 428 PA, 39 R, 6 HR, 39 RBI, 9 SB, .254 BA, .295 OBP, .365 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 64 R, 6 HR, 53 RBI, 13 SB, .259 BA, .297 OBP, .355 SLG
PECOTA: 440 PA, 411 AB, 46 R, 5 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .249 BA, .285 OBP, .354 SLG

Average: 489 PA, 346 AB, 42.6 R, 4.8 HR, 35 RBI, 9 SB, .250 BA, .292 OBP, .354 SLG

The computers are projecting essentially the same out of Lagares. His defense is strong, so it covers for the below average offense. He is young and has the possibility to do better than these numbers, however the Mets other options are statistically speaking, significantly better than Lagares, so it will be interesting how this plays out.

According to Roto World, Stephen Drew, Kendrys Morales and Ervin Santana may wait until after the June Draft to sign in order to increase their options. At that point, teams would not need to forfeit a pick to sign these players.

Roto World also admits this could be the work the agents, trying to drive up the pressure to get them signed now.

I can see how this could be an advantage to open up more teams to these players, especially if a team loses a player to injury between now and then, but this type of move is really done by players at the end of their careers, mainly pitchers, trying to cut down on the work load and bring in fresh legs (really arms) into the second half of the season. I don’t expect these three to do this because they are all just at their prime, and since most of them (Morales and Drew) are probably looking at 1 or 2 year deals, they need to put in work to get ready for the next off season.

We’ll see how this plays out. I think at least two of these players sign by the end of the week.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

The Mets have three players all aiming for the final part of the rotation. Yesterday we looked at John Lannan, today we look at Daisuke Matsuzaka. On the 26th, we’ll look at Mejia, the other contender for this spot.

Daisuke was an interesting addition to the team last year. He struggled when he pitched slow, when he picked up the pace, he showed some progress. What makes him difficult for the Mets is that he can opt out of his contract if he doesn’t make the major league roster, if he wants to, which cuts into the depth idea. Anyway, lets look at the stats:

2013: 7 G, 7 GS, 38.2 IP, 16 BB, 33 K, 3 – 3, 4.42 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.68 K/9

ESPN: 7 G, 7 GS, 41.0 IP, 19 BB, 30 K, 2 W, 5.27 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 6.59 K/9
MLB: 50.0 IP, 21 BB, 2-5, 4.86 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Steamer:5 G, 5 GS,  29.0 IP, 2-2, 4.31 ERA, 7.21 K/9
Oliver: 20 G, 20 GS, 104.0 IP, 5-6, 4.57 ERA, 6.90 K/9
PECOTA: 22.9 G, 22.9 GS, 119.7 IP, 6.2-8.5, 49 BB, 107 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 8.0 K/9

Average: 13.7 G, 13.7 GS, 68.7 IP, 30 BB, 68.5 K, 4.6 ERA, 1.4 WHIP, 7.1 K/9

The programs are split on the idea of how much playing time he will get this season. Outside of that, the numbers look pretty much like what you would expect. His ERA averages above what is considered an average ERA. His WHIP is below average and K/9 is above average. He’s not that exciting here, but he’s going for the fifth spot. If he put up the numbers in the PECOTA projection, that would be fantastic. Lets see what happens.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we take a break from batters to start a two part mini-series on the fifth spot of the rotation. Today we will look at John Lannan and tomorrow Daisuke. We’ll then cover Mejia on the 26th. Anyway, Lannan can walk away from his deal if he doesn’t make the major league roster by the end of March. Lannan, Daisuke join Farnsworth and Valverde all as former major leaguers trying to find spots on the major league roster. Let’s take a look at his projections:

2013: 14 G, 14 GS, 74.1 IP, 3-6, 5.33 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 4.60 K/9, 27 BB, 38 K

ESPN: 13 G, 13 GS, 75.0 IP, 4 W, 4.68 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.56 K/9, 29 BB, 38 K
MLB: 75.0 IP, 4-5, 4.32 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 30 BB, 50 K
Steamer: PROJECTS ONLY ONE INNING OF WORK. LEFT OUT.
Oliver: 25 G, 25 GS, 141.0 IP, 8-8, 4.46 ERA, 4.52 K/9
PECOTA: 3 G, 3 GS, 16.0 IP, 0.8 -1.5, 4.46 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.4 K/9, 5 BB, 10 K

Average: 13.6 G, 13.6 GS, 76.75 IP, 4.2-4.75, 4.48 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 4.83 K/9, 21.3 BB, 32.6 K

Averaging this was tough because although projection websites are consistent for hitters, they aren’t so much for pitchers. I included Oliver even though it is a bit high on the amount of games because PECOTA was a bit low. Lannan averages out to slightly less than a third of a season pitching about 75/76 innings. He projects to be slightly less than a .500 pitcher with an ERA that is almost exactly average and a WHIP that suggests that there would be very few clean innings.

If this what we got out of a fifth starter until Syndegaard arrives, I’d be happy with that (although I would still hope for Mejia).

Remember a few days ago when the Vine of Steven Matz spinning things started to go around twitter?

Well it was turned into a gif, uploaded to Reddit via Imgur and now has a high amount of upvotes. For those of you who are unfamiliar with Reddit, images, posts, links etc with the most upvotes move towards the front page of the website. People who upload content want their content to go to the front page because the closer to the top it is, it garners more exposure and more upvotes (which become karma on the website, people try to acquire as much of that as they can). When I wrote this article, Matz’s gif is on the second page, which is a really big deal.

There’s just very little discussion on both websites as to who the spinner is. Also there are some discussions about the dude in the background, who happens to be deGrom.

So there you go. The Mets have an internet star.