213 Miles From Shea

The Mets kicked off March, by playing their second spring training game of the season against a split squad Marlins team. I’m not sure what the rule is for the home team, but the away team has to bring four players to start every game that could be considered regulars. The Mets barely had 4 major leaguers in the starting lineup (that is to say, they definitely did not have four starters in the lineup). Actually thinking about the lineup, the only starter in the lineup was Chris Young. Anyway, the Mets lost 9-1.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Lucas Duda smashed, really smashed, a solo homer. He and Davis are off to good starts.
• Lannan had an excellent outing. Two innings, 26 pitches, 1 hit, no walks, no runs, 3 strikeouts. He also worked very quickly.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Edgin really struggled keeping pitches down and locating pitches. Just a bad first start. Hopefully he can put this behind him and rebound in the next start. It does expose the Mets LHP problem in the bullpen, specifically in specialist.
• Edgin’s inning also just had some odd defense problems. Duda tried to turn a tough double play and ended up eating the ball. That’s rough for him because Davis’ defense is his underrated aspects of his game
• Seratelli struggled at the plate today, 0-3, 3 K’s. Yikes.
• Lutz went 0-3 with 3 K’s too.

The Future Oriented Mets Fan is looking forward to next week when Wright and Murphy start getting into games. Also the Mets travel to Jupiter tomorrow to play the Cardinals. No SNY coverage but WOR is on the call.

The Aesthetically Focused Mets Fan noticed that the Marlins black BP’s today are an improvement over their black alternates. I mean they are still bad, but no teal drop shadow on the back numbers was a huge improvement.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Dillon Gee over the last few seasons has become a crucial part of the team. When healthy, he eats up innings and is consistent start to start. Lets see how the projection models use that information in its models:

2013: 199.0 IP, 32 G, 32 GS, 47 BB, 142 K, 12 -11, 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP

ESPN: 205.0 IP, 33 G, 33 GS, 59 BB, 152 K, 12 W, 4.04 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
MLB: 189.0 IP, 10-12, 49 BB, 150 K, 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Steamer: 163.0 IP, 29 G, 29 GS,  10-11, 4.16 ERA
Oliver: 162.0 IP, 26 G, 26 GS, 10-8, 3.94 ERAPECOTA: 189.0 IP, 30 G, 30 GS, 9.8-14.9, 56 BB, 160 K, 3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Average: 181.5 IP, 29.5 G, 29.5 GS, 10.6-13.4, 54.6 BB, 154 K, 4.01 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

The computers say that Gee will have a good season, just not as good as last year. This is a good sign for the Mets as they will need a strong performance out of their 4th start to have a shot at the playoffs this year.

The Mets played their first Spring Training Game yesterday! It was great to see the boys of Queens go out and play some baseball for the first time since the fall. Anyway, lets look at the stats of the game and over-analyze the game:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Ike Davis smashed a 2 Run Homer.
• Doubles Doubles Doubles! Duda, d’Arnaud, Puello and Lagares all hit doubles. (Twitter peeps said that the Lagares double may have been a home run knocked down by the wind)
• Montero and deGrom! Montero and deGrom looked really good pitching 2 perfect innings each. Montero struck out 2 while deGrom struck out 4. Very nice to see.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Some poor fundies between Puello and Kolarek that allowed a run to score on a bad throw and a bad covering of the plate.
• Ike Davis Homer. The pessimistic Mets fan will remind you that he got off to a strong start in Spring before tanking at the start of the season. Tell the pessimistic Mets fan to go away.

For the Future Oriented Mets Fan: The Mets take on the Marlins Splits Squad Team at Tradition Field in PSL

For the Past Oriented Mets Fan: The Mets are now 0-1 on the season after splitting an intrasquad game the day before

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

There is a lot of attention around Wheeler this year because the expectations from the fans is that, well Harvey. (I know that is not exactly a sentence). Wheeler was described as for a while that he is better than Harvey, and after Harvey’s explosive year last season, that might not be the case any more. Wheeler is exciting and is a major piece for years to come. Lets take a look at his projections:

2013: 17 G, 17 GS, 100.0 IP, 46 BB, 84 K, 7-5, 3.42 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

ESPN: 32 G, 32 GS, 188.0 IP, 69 BB, 161 K, 13 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
MLB: 170.0 IP, 76 BB, 144 K, 10-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 31 G, 31 GS, 192.0 IP, 11-12, 4.11 ERA
Oliver: 26 G, 26 GS, 146.0 IP, 9-7, 3.77 ERA
PECOTA: 26 G, 26 GS, 137.7 IP, 7.4-11.6, 61 BB, 130 K, 3.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

Average: 28.75 G, 28.75 GS, 166.7 IP, 68.6 BB, 145 K, 10-10, 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

The computer isn’t predicting a breakout season, but they never do. It looks like he will continue to develop a clip slightly less than that of last year. His strikeouts are increasing, but he is still projected to have some control problems. I’m curious to see how this translates on the diamond.

We are about six hours away from the first game of the Spring Training calendar (I don’t count the intrasquad game, I used to, but because they call innings and set up situations since it is practice, I’m no longer counting it), it seems like a good time to update out battle charts for the 40 man roster.

For the most part there have been no changes due to no major injuries (knock on wood) and no spring stats yet.

First Base:
From Collins comments from the beginning of the Spring, this is looking more like Davis’ job to lose. It seems like the organization wants him to start, with Josh Satin getting a healthy amount of AB’s in a platoon. If he struggles though, Duda will be slipped in.

Outfield:
This is looking more like a four person rotation of Chris Young, Erick Young Jr., Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares. Eric Young can make it in as a regular with amazing numbers and a demonstration of great defense. If Juan Lagares has an awesome offense year then it is his job (I’m in this camp). Interesting situation yesterday where Juan Lagares, Chris Young and Granderson went off to a field on their own to practice defense. That sounds like a starting outfield.

Rotation:
With Colon and Niese sidelined with minor, minor stuff. No new information here.

Let’s see what happens today by over-analyzing small sample sizes!

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Without Harvey, Jon Niese looks to be the Opening Day Starter this season, barring a crazy strong Spring by Colon or Wheeler. While the excitement of the Mets pitching staff lies with Harvey, Wheeler and Syndegaard, the long term success also lies with Niese, especially he becomes the elder member of the staff in 2016 (barring a major trade or free agent acquisition). Lets take a look at the projections:

2013: 24 G, 24 GS, 143.0 IP, 48 BB, 105 K, 8-8, 3.71 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

ESPN: 30 G, 30 GS, 180.0 IP, 55 BB, 142 K, 11 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
MLB: 185.0 IP, 11-10, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Steamer: 29 G, 29 GS, 173.0 IP, 11-11, 3.89 ERA
Oliver: 28 G, 28 GS, 167.0 IP, 11-8 3.61 ERA
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 165.3 IP, 8.6-13.7, 46 BB, 140 K, 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP

Average: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 10.5-10.6, 50.5 BB, 141 K, 3.85 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

I’m surprised how much of a drop in numbers the computers are expecting for Niese. It was also odd seeing how they were consistent in some areas and not on others, like all of them projecting 11 wins, except PECOTA who is really far back with 8.6. I guess this is why we play the games.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Today we finish up the three part miniseries in this series to look at the fifth rotation spot. Mejia is competing against Dice-K and Lannan for the fifth spot. Mejia is a more exciting player and has a high ceiling. right now it looks like the Mets want Mejia to have that job but if he wins it, Lannan and Dice-K may opt out of their deal, thus cause break the depth the Mets have. Lets take a look at the projections:

2013: 5 G, 5 GS, 27.1 IP, 4 BB, 27 K, 1-2, 2.30 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

ESPN: 23 G, 20 GS, 114.0 IP, 39 BB, 71 K, 7 W, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
MLB: 105.0 IP, 5-5, 37 BB, 90 K, 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Steamer: 35 G, 5 GS, 4-3, 59.0 IP, 3.57 ERA
Oliver: 19 G, 13 GS, 4-4, 72.0 IP, 4.11 ERA
PECOTA: 23 G, 23 GS, 122.0 IP, 6-11.3, 46 BB, 90 K, 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

Average: 17 G, 15 GS, 94.4 IP, 5.2-5.8, 40.6 BB, 83.6 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

The computer models are harsh on Mejia, but his small sample of games at the end of the year last year was amazing. The question is can he get back to that, or how far back to normal will he go. The numbers the model show are what the brain knows to probably be true, but the heart yearns for that small sample size in 2013.