213 Miles From Shea

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Eric Young is one of the players fighting for a spot in the outfield. Terry Collins wants Young’s bat in the lineup as much as possible, as he one of the closest players the Mets have to a leadoff hitter, and he is is the reining leader in stolen bases. Anyway, we’ve already gone over Juan Lagares, who is his main competition and tomorrow we’ll go over Chris Young.  Lets look at EYJ’s stats:

2013: 539 AB, 70 R, 2 HR, 32 RBI, 46 SB, .249 BA, .310 OBP, .336 SLG

ESPN: 450 AB, 61 R, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 38 SB, .251 BA, .319 OBP, .338 SLG
MLB: 450 AB, 60 R, 2 HR, 25 RBI, 34 SB, .244 BA, .310 OBP, .311 SLG
Steamer: 419 PA, 46 R, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 28 SB, .250 BA, .317 OBP, .341 SLG
Oliver: 600 PA, 76 R, 2 HR, 36 RBI, 48 SB, .256 BA, .320 OBP, .332 SLG
PECOTA: 378 PA, 334 AB, 48 R, 3 HR, 24 RBI, 29 SB, .234 BA, .307 OBP, .317 SLG

Average: 466 PA, 411 AB, 58.2 R, 2.4 HR, 28.4 RBI, 35.4 SB, .247 BA, .315 OBP, .323 SLG

The computers see a drop in power, and a slight raise in his OBP. There is a drop in speed, but that’s normal after a big speed season. He looks to have a solid season, maybe not a solid season for a person aiming for lead off, but it’s not terrible either.

(Seems like a good place to mention this article was written on 2/21)

The Astros came to camp yesterday and so did the Grandy Man. It was a pretty great day to get excited about Curtis Granderson and Wheeler as the Mets beat the Astros 6-2 and won their second game in a row. Anyway, some perspective:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Curtis Granderson smack two homeruns
• Wheeler pitch 3 innings, allow two hits, no walks, no runs and strikeout 3
• Eric Young Jr. get into a game this year, went 0-2, but walked and scored a run. OBP of .333
• Chris Young 1-3, R, 2B, RBI
• d’Arnaud with two hits on the day
• Farnsworth with a clean inning
• Black walked three, but didn’t allow any runs

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Curtis Granderson not hit any opposite field homers. Tell this Mets fan to shush.
• Black walk three, this Mets fan will ignore the getting out of the inning part
• Allen 1-5 on the day, .111 BA in the Spring
• Satin 0-2, .200 in the Spring
• Teagarden 0-2, 2 K, .167 BA on the spring

The Future Oriented Mets Fan knows the Mets are playing two games today with a split squad. Dillon Gee starts against the Marlins at home (PSL). Mejia gets his first start of the Spring at Space Coast against the Nationals

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Josh Edgin will also be competing for part of the crowded bullpen competition. It has become crowded due to Lannan, Dice K, Farnsworth and Valverde all on minor league deals trying to push in. Edgin is another young arm, like Black, who looks to become a mainstay in the pen. Lets see what the numbers look like:

2013: 34 G, 28.2 IP, 12 BB, 20 K, 1 SV, 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

ESPN: 65 G, 52.0 IP, 23 BB, 44 K, 1 SV, 4.15 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Steamer: 55 G, 55.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 3 SV
Oliver: 55 G, 57.0 IP, 3.95 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 23 BB, 56 K, 3.78 ERA, 1.27 WHIP

Average: 57.25 G, 55.4 IP, 23 BB, 50 K, 3.93, 1.29 WHIP

The models have him performing slightly worse than last year, but also have him pitching a complete season out of the pen. The computers feel that he will be reliable, borderline good pitcher out of the pen. Which is similar to colloquial thinking

The Mets played the fourth game of the spring today against the Braves in Disney. Score wise, if you’re interested in that during the spring, the Mets won the game 6-2 picking up their first win of the spring. They were in lead 1-0 the majority of the day before the Braves slipped to a late 2-1 lead. Then the Mets scored 5 runs in the top of ninth to put them in the lead for good. But the real story of the day was Syndergaard putting on a show for two innings. Anyway some analysis:

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Noah Syndergaard allowing only one hit, no walks and no runs over two innings of work with two strikeouts. Apparently according to those who saw the game he looked good
• Familia, who is battling Edgin for a bullpens spot, pitched two innings with an identical line to Syndergaard
• Edgin still walked two, and allowed one hit, but he got out of the inning with no runs
• Socolavich and German also had nice outings
• Andrew Brown hit a triple. ANDREW BROWN HIT A TRIPLE. WHAT.
• Vaughn and Campbell both had nice days at the plate

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Chris Young went 0-3 with two strikeouts
• Clark walked, but then went 0-4
• Flores went 0-4

The Future Oriented Mets Fan Knows that the Mets come back to PSL tomorrow to play the Astros

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Vic Black is slated to be a late inning player out of the pen this year, possibly closing if Parnell isn’t on track. Lets take a look at how the computer models think Black will do this year:

2013: 18 G, 17.0 IP, 6 BB, 15 K, 1 SV, 3.71 ERA, 1.35 WHIP

ESPN: 70 G, 66.0 IP, 32 BB, 68 K, 3.55 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Steamer: 45 G, 45.0 IP, 3.50 ERA
Oliver: 50 G, 58.0 IP, 3.91 ERA
PECOTA: 54 G, 57.7 IP, 26 BB, 66 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

Average: 54.75 G, 56.7 IP, 29 BB, 67 K, 3.44 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

In addition to the above, ESPN said 6 saves, and Steamer said 1 save. It looks like to the computer, Vic Black will have a good, borderline strong year out of the pen. To go to the next level, he will need to drop his WHIP, since that will also effect the runners already on the bases from scoring.

The Mets played Game 3 of the Spring today in Jupiter, Florida as they dropped the game to the Cardinals by the score of 7-1. While the game was a little slow, since it was a Spring Training game, there are always a few things we can look at.

The Optimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Dice-K rebound nicely from his first inning where he threw a lot of pitches and allowed a run with a clean second inning. With the success of John Lannan in his last start and Mejia yet to pitch, Dice-K needs more innings like that second one to make the team.
• Even though Lagares was hitless, he did walk. OBP!
• Curtis Granderson 1-2, 2B, BB. Nice.

The Pessimistic Mets Fan Saw:

• Leathersich had a sloppy inning. His stuff was there but he couldn’t locate, tried to throw instead of pitch, messed around and allowed 4 runs in 2/3rds of an inning.
• Davis struggled at the plate today going 0-3 with 2 strikeouts. He now has three strikeouts in 6 AB, he also has a homer so there’s that.

The Future Oriented Mets Fan is looking forward to tomorrow’s trip to Disney where Noah “Thor” Syndergaard will get the start.

Fantasy season means players projections are ubiquitous right now. This is part of a multi-week series where we will go over projections player by player, averaging what we can to see how the computer models and pundits think the 2014 Mets players will do.

Bartolo Colon represents the major starting rotation free agent acquisition that the Mets made this off-season. He is serving the role of stop gap for Harvey on a two-year deal and while he can’t match Harvey’s numbers, his experience is fantastic for the younger pitchers on the roster. It is a bit of a mystery what to expect from Colon who seems to keep bringing it year after year. Here are the predicted numbers for Colon:

2013: 30 G, 30 GS, 190.1 IP, 18-6, 29 BB, 117 K, 2.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 5.53 K/9

ESPN: 25 G, 25 GS, 158.0 IP, 10 W, 28 BB, 101 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.75 K/9
MLB: 169.0 IP, 12-10, 33 BB, 113 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Steamer: 30 G, 30 GS, 192.0 IP, 12-11, 3.78 ERA, 6.52 K/9
Oliver: 28 G, 28 G, 175.0 IP, 12-8, 3.45 ERA, 5.66 K/9
PECOTA: 29 G, 29 GS, 174.0 IP, 9.4-13.5, 35 BB, 124 K, 3.67 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.4 K/9

Average: 28 G, 28 GS, 173.6 IP, 11.1 – 10.6, 32 BB, 112.6 K, 3.64 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.1 K/9

What’s amazing is all of the computers still project Colon to have a great difference in his walks and strikeouts, which is his career strength. The computer models still all have him having a solid season, not nearly as good as last year, but still very solid. It’s exciting to think about if he could closer to 2013 than the computer suggests.