213 Miles From Shea

The vibes on the Mets were starting to turn around. The Mets got a dominating performance from Justin Verlander on Wednesday, two good innings from the bullpen and just enough offense to secure a win and set up a rubber game yesterday against the Reds.

Then yesterday happened. Kodai Senga allowed four runs in the first inning (he was great after that!) and the Mets offense just completely disappeared. The vibes were back to bad. Now the Mets open up a weekend series against the Nationals. The Mets have a chance to return to .500 or better for the season depending on how this weekend goes. The Nationals have a chance to leapfrog the Mets in the standings.

Tylor Megill looks to get the Mets back on track tonight in his eighth start of the season. Over 35 1/3 innings this year he has a 4.33 ERA, 5.40 FIP, 1.500 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. He has allowed at least three runs in each of his last four starts, leading to a 6.05 ERA over his last 19 1/3 innings. For the most part, it looks like a jump in both hits and walks have hurt him. On the positive side, he hasn’t allowed any homers in the month of May yet. The Nationals have the following numbers against him:

• Lane Thomas 1-8, HR, 5 K
• Luis Garía 1-5, 2B, K
• Carter Kieboom 1-5, 3 K
• Victor Robles 0-2, K
• Keibert Ruiz 2-3, 2B
• Riley Adams 0-2
• Joey Meneses 0-1

MacKenzie Gore has pitched 37 innings over seven starts with a 3.65 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.432 WHIP and a 114 ERA+. Four of his seven starts this season have been quality starts including his last start where he allowed two runs from eight hits and a walk over six innings. His best start by far this season was against the Mets. He held the Mets to one run from four hits and two walks over six innings and struck out 10 Mets. The Mets have the following career numbers against Gore:

• Tommy Pham 2-8, 6 K
• Pete Alonso 0-3, K
• Mark Canha 0-3, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 0-3
• Starling Marte 1-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-2, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-2, 3B
• Tomás Nido 0-2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Please score a run. Ideally the Mets will score more than one run tonight. However, just score one run has become a hurdle for the Mets who after Thursday’s game have been shutout seven times this season already. They were shutout only eight total times last season.
2. Brandon Nimmo’s two contradicting streaks. After going ice cold during the start of the Mets free fall, Brandon Nimmo is hitting more like his normal self. In his last eight games he is 10-for-30 with three walks, hitting .333/.429/.500. On the other hand, he now has 12 straight games with at least one strikeout (total 16 strikeouts). We wrote about this before Thursday’s game also. He’s 0-for-2 with two strikeouts and a walk against Gore, so both of these streaks may continue another day.
3. The Mets #1 prospect is playing like the #1 prospect. Francisco Álvarez has had a pretty great last eight games. He’s 8-for-25 with five extra base hits (three doubles and two homers) leading to a .320/.393/.680 line. He’s also had three multi-hit games in that stretch compared to only one in the 13 games before this streak.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win a series for the first time in a few years weeks this afternoon as they take on the Reds in a rubber game at the Great American Ballpark.

Justin Verlander gave the Mets what they so desperately needed last night – seven innings from a starting pitcher. After a rough first inning, Verlander was in control for the rest of the night. Showalter was able to hand the game off to Ottavino and then Roberts. The whole game was just cleansing. Now Kodai Senga, who leads the Mets with two quality starts, looks to duplicate Verlander’s work.

In six starts and 32 innings this season, Kodai Senga has a 3.38 ERA, 5.15 FIP, 1.469 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed only two runs over 11 innings. He’s scattered seven hits in that stretch but has also walked eight batters (but has 11 strikeouts). So far this season the walks and homers have hurt Senga. He has 22 walks on the season (6.2 BB/9) and has allowed five homers (1.4 HR/9). That’s a bad combination for keeping runs off the board. However his pitches keep hitters guess so often, he’s going to collect a lot of walks while he racks up the K’s (10.1 K/9).

The Reds are going with a bullpen game of sorts today with Derek Law as the opener and Ben Lively getting a bulk of the work after. Law has pitched 18 innings over 17 games this season with a 3.00 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 1.500 WHIP and a 163 ERA+. He allowed three runs over two outings at the end of April and hasn’t allowed any runs in his four games since pitching five innings of one hit baseball (four walks though). His last outing was the first game of this series where he allowed a hit, a walk and nothing else against the Mets. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 2-4, K
• Starling Marte 1-3, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2, BB, K
• Mark Canha 1-2, HR
• Eduardo Escobar 2-2
• Francisco Álvarez 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-1

The Mets should also see Ben Lively pitch in the majors for the first time since 2019 today. Lively was drafted by the Reds in 2013 and was traded to the Phillies before the 215 season for Marlon Byrd. In 2017 he started 15 games for the Phillies with a 4.26 ERA over 88 2/3 innings. Lively went to Korea in 2020 and returned to the Reds organization in 2022. So far in the minors this year he has pitched 27 innings over five games with a 2.33 ERA and 1.074 WHIP. He has thrown six innings in a game twice in the minors this season and in his most recent start he tossed 92 pitches. A few Mets have seen him over the years:

• Brandon Nimmo 0-7, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 1-3
• Francisco Lindor 0-1, BB
• Mark Canha 0-0, HBP

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Let the league know Pete is back. Alonso hit a homer again last night, retaking the major league lead with 13 on the season. In his last four games he is 3-for-12 with two homers and six walks, leading to a .250/.500/.750 batting line. Alonso has also only scored twice (literally from his two homers) meaning every time he has walked, the Mets have just left him out on the base paths.
2. Daniel Vogelbach got an opposite field hit last night. Vogelbach collected two hits last night and now has four hits in his last five games. He’s also collected three walks in that stretch (.412 OBP). First, it was nice to see Vogelbach hit a ball yesterday to part of the field he rarely does. Vogey has gotten criticism this year and I’m not sure if he’s the right person right now for the DH spot, but he’s starting to show some early signs that he’s turning things around.
3. Brandon Nimmo looks to build off of a busy night. Between May 5th and 6th Brandon Nimmo had back to back games where he had two hits in each game. After going hitless in his next two games he had a busy night last night, collecting three hits. This is already his 6th game this season with at least three hits! On one negative note, Nimmo has struck out now 11 consecutive games (15 times total in that stretch). In the 25 games before this stretch he struck out only 14 times total.

Let’s Go Mets!

The 2023 Mets are going to live and die by their starting pitching. Max Scherzer was a late scratch to last night’s start and David Peterson got a surprise return to the rotation. He couldn’t take advantage of the opportunity and the Mets ended up playing another game from behind.

At one point last night the Mets were down 7-1 and they were able to fight back to make it 7-6, the second game in a row where they scored six runs. Between Peterson’s start and some questionable calls (including one that got Showalter ejected) the Mets couldn’t come out on top. Last night was the first time in a while though that the Mets showed fight. They have now lost 12 of their last 15 and are free falling. Can they stop the fall tonight?

Justin Verlander looks to get the Mets back on track. In his Mets debut last week he pitched five innings allowing two runs from five hits and a walk while striking out five. The Mets as a team have had only five quality starts from starting pitchers this year. A Verlander quality start will go a long way for the Mets ball club this evening. The Reds have the following career numbers against Justin:

• Joey Votto 3-5, 3 2B, BB, 2 K
• Curt Casali 0-5, 3 K
• Wil Myers 1-4
• Nick Senzel 0-3, 2 K

The Mets bats will get a look at the flame-thrower of the Reds staff: Hunter Greene. Over seven starts and 33 2/3 innings this season, Greene has a 3.74 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 1.426 WHIP and a 131 ERA+. The big difference between this year and last year is his HR/9 rate. He’s dropped it from 1.7 to 0.8. Now that being said, he’s coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed five runs from seven hits and a walk including two homers against the White Sox. Greene faced the Mets once last season and allowed six runs from seven hits and a walk. The key to beating Greene in that game? The Mets hit two homers. Anyway the Mets have the following career numbers against Greene:

• Pete Alonso 0-2, BB
• Mark Canha 1-2, 2B
• Eduardo Escobar 0-3, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-2, HR, K
• Starling Marte 0-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-3, HR
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2, BB, K
• Tomás Nido 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Álvarez! The Mets top catching prospect had a huge night last night, hitting solo homers twice! He’s now hitting .241/.281/.444 on the season and in his last six games he’s hitting .333/.400/.778. The Mets need every spark they can get right now!
2. Work Walks. Hunter Greene has allowed three walks in a game three times this season. Teams have been able to push Greene out of those starts after 3 1/3 innings, 4 2/3 innings and 5 innings. Plus, in this ballpark, runners on the base paths can easily be brought in with a homer.
3. Can the Mets get Marte Going? Marte was a hero of last year’s club hitting .292/.347/.468 with a 132 OPS+. This year has been the exact opposite. Over 31 games this season he is hitting .223/.298/.286 with a 65 OPS+. In the month of May he is 6-for-27 and is hitting .222/.250/.472. Last night he was able to get on base twice with two singles. Is this the start of something?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are heading to Ohio looking to get a fresh start. Last week was fairly terrible for the Amazin’s. Last week the Mets split a doubleheader with the Braves, then got swept by the Tigers and finally lost a series with the Rockies. Just an awful week.

Winning games makes all of the frustration from the last couple of weeks melt away and that’s what the Mets will try to do today as they take on the Reds!

Max Scherzer needs a good start in the worst way. Last Wednesday he made his return from a foreign substance suspension that was delayed a bit from rainy weather in Queens and later in Detroit. In his first five games he has a 5.56 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 1.412 WHIP and a 77 ERA+ over 22 2/3 innings. He’s now in the 19th percentile for exit velocity, 38th for hard hit percentage and 8th for barrel percentage. In other words, if it feels like teams are hitting Scherzer hard this year – they are. Scherzer shutout the Reds over six innings in his one start against them last season. The Reds have the following numbers against Max:

• Wil Myers 7-25, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, BB, 14 K
• Joey Votto 5-20, 2 2B, 5 BB, 7 K
• Jonathan India 1-8, 2B, BB, 3 K
• Nick Senzel 0-6, 4 K
• Tyler Stephenson 0-3, 2 K

The Mets bats look to find some consistency as they take on Luke Weaver. In three starts this season, Weaver has a 7.88 ERA, 6.35 FIP, 1.688 WHIP and a 64 ERA+ over 16 innings. He’s allowed at least four runs in each start this season. His last start was the shortest of the season, 4 1/3 innings, where he allowed four runs from nine hits and two walks. On the positive side, it was the first start this season where he didn’t allow any homers (the Pirates and Rangers hit a total of five against Luke in his first two games). The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 5-12, 2B, BB, K
• Tommy Pham 2-6, 2B, 2 K
• Mark Canha 0-2, K
• Tomás Nido 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Steve Gelbs on the call! Steve Gelbs is going to do the play-by-play call this series for SNY! Gary Cohen is getting the series off so Gelbs will get the opportunity to call a regular season game for the first time in his career. Over under 1.5 conversations this week about Skyline Chili?
2. Quality Starts Please. The Mets starting pitching has been the major weak point for the club over the first 35 games this season. The Mets constantly find themselves playing from behind and with starting pitchers making early exits. In the first 35 games this year the Mets as a staff have tossed only five quality starts (Senga has two, Lucchesi, Megill and Scherzer each has one). This puts extra pressure on everyone and eventually things start to break. We saw that on Sunday as the Mets bullpen, working overdrive so far, pretty much fell apart against the Rockies.
3. Jeff McHits Is Back! Jeff McNeil had a terrific day at the plate on Sunday going 3-for-5 with a run scored. He broke an 0-for-10 slump. from his previous four games. Hopefully McNeil can build off Sunday’s game tonight in Cincinnati!

Let’s Go Mets!

The good news: the Mets scored double the amount of runs yesterday than Friday night. The bad news: that means they scored two runs and lost 5-2 against the Rockies.

Now the Mets have a rubber game Sunday matchup with the Rockies. If the Mets win, they’ll win their first series since they took two of three from the Dodgers in LA in April. If the Mets lose, they’ll fall below .500 for the first time since the Brewers swept them the second series of the year.

Joey Lucchesi looks to get the Mets back on track this afternoon. Over three games and 16 1/3 innings, Lucchesi has a 3.86 ERA, 4.89 FIP, 1.102 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. His season stats are still being buoyed by his first start of the season where he shutout the Giants over seven innings of work. Since then he has allowed seven runs from 10 hits and two walks over 9 1/3 innings. In his first start against the Giants he struck out nine batters. Since then he has stuck out only four batters. The Rockies have the following career numbers against him:

• Charlie Blackmon 6-20, BB, 3 K
• Elias Díaz 0-9, 2 K
• Ryan McMahon 2-8, BB, 3 K
• Mike Moustakas 1-4, 2 BB, K
• Kris Bryant 2-4, 2B, BB, 2 K
• C.J. Cron 2-4, 2B, 2K
• Jurickson Profar 0-4
• Randal Grichuk 0-2, BB, K

The Mets bats will try to break out of their rut against Ryan Feltner. Over six starts (30 1/3 innings), Feltner has a 4.45 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.451 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. In his first three starts of the season he allowed 13 runs from 15 hits and 11 walks over 13 1/3 innings (8.78 ERA). Since then he has allowed only three runs, two earned, from 14 hits and four walks while striking out 15 in 17 innings (1.06 ERA). He made one start against the Mets last year where the Mets scored three times off six hits and two walks over 4 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 0-2, BB
• Starling Marte 0-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-2, BB
• Pete Alonso 2-2, HR
• Brett Baty 0-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-2
• Tomás Nido 1-2
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Work the counts! When the Mets were playing well in April, they were near the top of the league in walks. They are still ranked 6th in the league with 126 walks. However if you only look at the last seven days, the Mets are 20th in the league, working only 17 walks (minimum 11 by the Reds/Nationals, maximum 31 by the Dodgers). There is a direct connection between the Mets walking less, and the quick at bats we’ve seen recently.
2. Mets Control Issues. Sticking with the walks theme, the Mets are third in baseball with 128 walks issued trailing the Oakland Athletics (179) and the Chicago White Sox (147). While ranked only 14th in this category over the last week, the Mets offense is hitting well enough to cover for Mets pitcher control issues.
3. A Brandon Nimmo Update: A few days ago we wrote about how Nimmo had gone cold at the plate. Earlier this weekend we talked about how Nimmo was finally starting to show signs of heating up. He’s now had back-to-back multi-hit games for the first time since his amazing West Coast road trip. In the last four games he is 6-for-15 with two doubles and a homer slashing .400/.438/.733. Now he just needs someone else to heat up with him.

Let’s Go Mets!

The hope yesterday was the Mets would have a big inning to resurrect their offense on their way to winning their first baseball game this week. The Mets instead skipped the first step and went ahead and won last night’s game 1-0. Senga had one of his best starts as a Met, the bullpen was fairly flawless, Nimmo broke out of his slump to hit a solo homer.

The Mets have the opportunity to take the next two steps today. Have a big inning and wake up the bats. Win two games in a row. Let’s go!

Tylor Megill looks to lead the Mets this afternoon. Over six starts and 30 2/3 innings he has a 4.11 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 1.435 WHIP and a 104 ERA+. In his last three games he has allowed 10 runs from 17 hits and eight walks, leading to a 6.14 ERA over 14 2/3 innings. Only two players on the Rockies have seen Megill in a major league game before. Kris Bryant is 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and Randal Grichuk is 0-for-2. Will this be the Megill bounce back game?

Austin Gomber has made six starts and pitched 27 1/3 innings with a 7.57 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 1.638 WHIP and a 68 ERA+. Despite those awful numbers, which are heavily influenced by a game in Pittsburgh where he allowed nine runs over two innings, he’s been quite good his last two starts. In those two games he has allowed only one run from six hits and five walks over 11 innings. He pitched against the Mets once last year in Colorado where he held the Mets to two runs on seven hits over seven innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 3-8, 2 K
• Starling Marte 0-6, BB, 3 K
• Tomás Nido 0-6, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, BB, K
• Pete Alonso 0-3
• Mark Canha 1-3
• Eduardo Escobar 0-3
• Luis Guillorme 2-3
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets take the series? One of the things that made last year’s team so amazing was their ability to win series. They rarely got long winning streaks, but rather consistently took two of three games or three of four games and watched the wins pile up. The Mets haven’t been in a position to take a series since April 22nd in San Francisco. They can take the series against the Rockies today!
2. Is Brandon Nimmo back? Yesterday Brandon Nimmo went 2-for-3 with a walk. His two hits were a double and a homer. Nimmo has shown to be a streaky hitter this season essentially starting the season cold, then becoming the hottest hitter in the league before going ice cold again. If he gets a hit today it will be the first time since April 22nd that he had at least three consecutive games with a hit.
3. Checking in on the Mets bullpen. The Mets bullpen was excellent last night and used their three most consistent pitchers: Smith, Robertson and Ottavino. Robertson and Ottavino both didn’t pitch on Thursday (although Ottavino blew the first game on Wednesday) so they should be good to go today if the Mets need them. Drew Smith has now tossed 35 pitches in back to back days.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets need a win tonight in the worse way. They just got swept by the Tigers and now have lost nine of their last eleven games. The starting pitching has been off, the offense has gone missing. The bullpen has kept them in games, but using the bullpen so much is a ticking time bomb for a breakdown at some point.

Getting out of a rut in baseball starts with a hit, then a good inning, then a good game. The Mets will attempt to do all three of those things tonight as they welcome the Rockies into town.

Kodai Senga returns to the mound after an extended period of rest. In five starts and 26 innings this year he has a 4.15 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 1.577 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. He has a solid strikeout rate, striking out 11.1 batters per nine innings. The problem has been both control and batters taking a lot of balls. It’s resulted in a 1.78 K/BB ratio. After giving up four earned runs in back to back starts he only allowed two runs over five innings against the Nationals his last time out. Further, his last start against the Nationals was the first time in three starts that he didn’t allow any homers.

The Rockies are sending out Antonio Senzatela tonight who is making his 2023 debut. He tore his ACL last August and has been on the injured list since. In 19 starts last season he pitched 92 1/3 innings with a 5.07 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.690 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. His two minor league rehab starts have been quite different. On April 25th he allowed only one run from five hits over 3 1/3 innings. Then his last time out on the 30th he allowed nine runs, six earned, from eight hits in three innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Eduardo Escobar 9-32, 3B, HR, 2 K
• Tommy Pham 6-13, 2 2B, 2 BB
• Starling Marte 7-11, 2B, HR
• Francisco Lindor 2-11, HR, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 4-9, 2B, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-9, HR
• Mark Canha 0-4, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-6, HR, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-6

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The vibes and the crowd. The Mets are coming off of a pretty terrible week. The vibes in the clubhouse are off right now because that’s what losing a bunch of games in a row does. Mets fans have been known to let the team hear it when they are disappointed with the level of play. It would be just great for everyone involved if the Mets can get some runs early and if Kodai Senga has a quality start. This is an opportunity for a vibes reset!
2. Finding Nimmo. The Mets need their lead-off hitter to come back to form. In his last ten games he his 7-for-40 and hitting .175/.209/.250. However the more unlike Nimmo part of this stretch is his 15 strikeouts (he only has 24 on the season!). He got a hit in the ninth yesterday which could have been the start of the rally, but then got caught stealing second.
3. Tommy Pham: From April 17th to May 1st, Tommy Pham had 0 hits in 19 trips to the plate (he did have three walks though!). In his last two games he is 4-for-7 with a double and a homer. If the Mets are looking to shake up the roster in the next couple of weeks, Pham’s spot is not guaranteed. The last two games are only the third time this season where Pham has recorded hits in back-to-back games. Let’s see if this is the start of something!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets lost both games of yesterday’s doubleheader and now have lost eight of their last ten games. The mood around the team is absolutely brutal right now. The starting pitching didn’t give the Mets a chance in both games of their doubleheader yesterday. While the Mets were able to mount a comeback in the first game, which they eventually lost, the team just looked lost in the night cap.

But today is a big day for the Mets. Justin Verlander will finally make his 2023 Mets debut. One starting pitcher won’t magically make the Mets better right now, but they need something positive to start creating some momentum.

Justin Verlander is coming off of a Cy Young award winning season where he pitched 175 innings with a 1.75 ERA, 2.49 FIP, 0.829 WHIP and a 223 ERA+. He lead the league last season in wins, ERA, ERA+, WHIP and H/9. In his rehab start last week he allowed no runs from two hits and walk while striking out six over 4 2/3 innings. He tossed 69 pitches in the game. It’s unclear right now how deep into the game he can go, but right now I’ll take 70, effective Verlander pitches. The Tigers have the following career numbers against him:

• Jonathan Schoop 5-21, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 K
• Andy Ibáñez 1-4
• Matt Vierling 0-2, K

The Mets bats will try to reset their season while going up against Eduardo Rodriguez who is currently having the best season of his career. Over six starts and 36 2/3 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.21 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 0.873 WHIP and a 194 ERA+. In his last four starts he has allowed only two runs from 16 hits and three walks over 26 2/3 innings (0.68 ERA). The Mets have the following career numbers against Eduardo:

• Tommy Pham 4-14, 2B, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 3-13, 2B, BB
• Mark Canha 0-13, 5 K
• Starling Marte 0-2, BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 0-1, BB, K
• Tomás Nido 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Bring Back West Coast Brandon Nimmo: When the Mets were on their West Coast road trip, Brandon Nimmo was hitting the cover off of the ball. On Monday Brandon Nimmo went 2-for-9 with a run scored and four strikeouts. Yesterday Nimmo went 1-for-9 with three strikeouts. The Mets need Nimmo to find that magic again!
2. Tommy Pham’s Big Day: Tommy went 3-for-4 in the first game yesterday including a double and a homer. This was the day at the plate that Pham desperately needed. Can Pham start to build off this and become an x-factor?
3. Bullpen Check: With early exits from both starting pitchers yesterday, there was heavy bullpen usage. Butto led the way with 42 pitches. Yacabonis was next with 36 pitches. Curtiss, Ottavino and Muckenhirn round out the group. That being said Nogosek, Robertson, Brigham and Smith have all not pitched since Monday and should be good to go today.

Let’s Go Mets!

We have been waiting all season for the next two games. The Mets will finally send out their dual aces – Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander – in back to back games.

Starting pitching has been the main weak point for the 2023 Mets. Between injuries to Verlander, Quintana, Carrasco to David Peterson’s surprising struggles, the Mets have been in a tough spot the last five or so weeks. Scherzer wasn’t Scherzer like at the start of the year and it looked like he was finally coming back in his last start against the Dodgers but then he got suspended for sweat and rosin (and for what happens to that mixture when you use alcohol to clean it off, which he was directed to do). Anyway, Mad Max finally returns to the mound tonight!

Max has made four starts this season tossing 19 1/3 innings with a 3.72 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 1.190 WHIP and a 113 ERA+. In his first two starts of the season he allowed eight runs over 11 1/3 innings from 12 hits including four homers. In his last two starts he allowed two hits, no runs, over eight innings wile striking out nine. The Tigers have the following career numbers against him:

• Jonathan Schoop 2-17, 2B, BB, 11 K
• Javier Báez 1-12, 2B, 8 K
• Miguel Cabrera 1-6, BB, 4 K
• Matt Vierling 1-5, K

The Mets bats look to stay hot against Michael Lorenzen tonight. Lorenzen had made three starts and pitched 14 innings with a 7.07 ERA, 5.31 FIP, 1.643 WHIP and a 62 ERA+. Two of his starts have been terrible (six runs over four innings, five runs over five innings). Sandwiched between those starts were five shutout innings against the Orioles where he scattered three hits. The Mets have the following numbers against Lorenzen:

• Starling Marte 6-17, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-9, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-7, 2B
• Tommy Pham 2-7, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 1-5
• Jeff McNeil 0-3, 2 BB
• Eduardo Escobar 2-4, 2B
• Luis Guillorme 2-4
• Tomás NIdo 0-4, 2 K
• Mark Canha 0-2, BB, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Max’s Velocity: In the first two games Scherzer’s velocity was down and the Exit Velocity against him was fairly up (23rd percentile this season). His fastball is averaging at 93 mph this year compared to 94 last year, but if you look at his Baseball Savant page, you’ll see the overall distribution is skewed, with less higher velocity pitches. We know that Scherzer was working through an injury prior the Dodgers start and now has had a lot of time to rest up. This is going to be an over-analyzed starter for Max.
2. Bullpen Usage: The Mets had rely heavily on their bullpen on Monday, essentially starting the day with a bullpen game and then closing out the final three or so innings for Megill Monday night. The good news for the Mets is that prior to the afternoon game today, everyone in the bullpen was off Friday, Saturday and Sunday and then again yesterday. The deepest Scherzer has gone this year is six innings. In his last full start he tossed 97 pitches to get through fives, working himself into a high amount of 3-2 counts.
3. The Mets energy in general: The Mets are playing four games over three days, but in intense fashion. Monday they had two back-to-back games before traveling to Detroit. Then they geared themselves up to play last night, only for the game to be called about an hour or so into the delay. Now they have two games today, with an afternoon game tomorrow. In a sport that is more like a marathon and routine, the Mets are doing a lot of heavy sprinting with unusual periods of rest.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to build some momentum this week as they swing into Detroit for a three game set. On Monday the Mets finally got to play baseball, splitting a doubleheader with the Braves. The Mets battled back multiple times in the first game but still fell short 9-8. In the second game they went up early, lost the lead, but rallied back and beat the Braves 5-3. The momentum from their win in the second game was supposed to carry directly into yesterday’s game but the weather had other plans and now the Mets play two today!

Detroit is where the Mets are going to reset their starting rotation. Due to the rainouts this weekend, Max Scherzer is finally eligible to return, however the Mets are slotting him into tomorrow’s spot. Justin Verlander is good to go after a rehab start and will make his Mets debut on Thursday. Kodai Senga is getting extra rest and will start after Verlander which leaves Joey Lucchesi for tonight’s game!

In two games this season, Joey Lucchesi has pitched 12 1/3 innings allowing three runs from nine hits and four walks while striking out 12 batters. After allowing no runs in his first start of the season, Joey struggled a bit against the Washington Nationals last week, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. There are only two batters in the Tigers lineup who have seen Lucchesi before. Former Met Javier Báez is 5-for-7 with two doubles and two homers. Austin Meadows is the other batter, but he just got transferred to the 60-day injured list.

The Tigers are using the doubleheader to change pitching matchups, and rather than sending Michael Lorenzen against Lucchesi, they’re sending out Joey Wentz. Maybe they just wanted a Joey vs Joey game. Anyway Wentz has pitched 22 1/3 innings this season over five games with a 6.45 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.343 WHIP and a 67 ERA+. He’s coming off of an average start against the Orioles where he allowed two runs from four hits over 5 2/3 innings. There are no current Mets who have faced Joey Wentz in a major league game before.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Another day, another comment about Brett Baty. Brett Baty is fully in a groove now. He is now hitting .333/.381/.538 on the season and in his last seven games he’s hitting .409/.458/.773. He had three batted balls yesterday that were over 100 mph, bringing him to double digits for the season. We’ve been talking about how the Mets needed another player to step up in the offense. Yesterday that player was Brett Baty.
2. Four Homers in one day? The Mets have been desperate for the big hit and yesterday they got a handful. Pete Alonso, Brett Baty, Eduardo Escobar and Jeff McNeil all homered. Comerica Park is notoriously a pitcher’s ballpark but the Tigers made some changes before this season. The fence was moved in 10-feet in center. The wall from center to right was lowered. Can the Mets ride this power wave, even into a (slightly less) pitcher’s friendly park?
3. Can the Mets take advantage of the Tigers recent struggles? From April 13th to 18th the Tigers went on a five game winning streak. This brought them to only two games below .500. Since then the Tigers are 3-8. This is the time for the Mets to get on a bit of a run.

Let’s Go Mets!