213 Miles From Shea

The Mets look to win their fifth game in a row and sweep a series with the Guardians tonight! Earlier this afternoon the Mets recorded their fourth win in a row on the back of Scherzer’s excellent start and a go-ahead two-run homer from Starling Marte in the bottom of the 8th. It was the third time in the last four games where the Mets had a late homer in the game be the difference maker. The Mets are reveling in their new found “never-say-die” mentality!

Justin Verlander makes his fourth start of the year tonight. Over 17 innings he has allowed nine runs from 15 hits and five walks while striking out 15 batters (4.76 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 1.176 WHIP, 89 ERA+). He was great in his first two starts of the year, allowing three runs over 12 innings but hit a wall his last time out against the Rays. In that start he allowed six runs from eight hits, including two homers, over five innings of work. Overall on the season he has allowed four homers, which is slightly concerning. In one game against the Guardians last year he held them to no runs over six innings, scattering two hits and a walk. The Guardians have the following numbers against him:

• José Ramírez 11-33, 3 2B, 2 HR, 5 BB, 4 K
• Mike Zunino 0-14, BB, 10 K
• Josh Bell 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, K
• Cam Gallagher 0-3, K
• Amed Rosario 0-3, K
• Andrés Giménez 0-2
• Josh Naylor 1-2

The Mets bats will get a look at the two-time all-star Shane Bieber tonight. In nine games (56 1/3 innings) this season he has a 3.20 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.225 WHIP and a 132 ERA+. After a terrific start to May where he allowed two runs from 12 hits and two walks over 14 innings, he got roughed up in his last outing allowing six runs, five earned, over 4 2/3 innings from 12 hits. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 3-16, 2 2B, BB, 5 K
• Gary Sánchez 2-6, 2B, 2 BB
• Eduardo Escobar 5-6, 4 2B, HR
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-4, BB
• Pete Alonso 0-3, K
• Mark Canha 1-3, K
• Starling Marte 2-2, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Doubleheaders this season. This is the Mets fourth doubleheader this season, their second set at home. All of their doubleheaders have happened this month. They have split a doubleheader with the Braves and Nationals, and got swept by the Tigers. Today was the first time this month that the Mets won the first game of the doubleheader. Now they have a chance to actually sweep!
2. Quality Starts are in again! Wednesday night Kodai Senga pitched six innings, allowing one run and striking out 12. On Thursday Megill gave the Mets six innings of two run ball. Today Max Scherzer shutout the Guardians over six innings scattering three hits. The Mets have been struggling to put together quality starts but now have three in a week. With the state of the bullpen, the Mets could really use another quality start from Justin Verlander tonight.
3. It’s Francisco Álvarez time! Álvarez has had two straight games with a homer. More importantly he has recorded five RBI over his last two game. He only had six on the season going into Thursday’s game. He is quickly becoming the Mets x-factor along with Baty and hopefully Vientos.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to extend their winning streak to four games and get above .500 this afternoon when they take on the Guardians for the first game of a doubleheader. Yesterday’s afternoon game was washed out, which was probably a good thing for the Mets as their bullpen had been overtaxed the last three games. Now we have a doubleheader probable lineup for the ages as Max Scherzer pitches in the afternoon followed by Justin Verlander tonight.

Friday night was another incredibly exciting win for the Mets who were down 3-0 early. Pete Alonso tied the game with a grand slam in the 7th inning. The baby Mets (specifically Álvarez and Baty) had homers as well and eventually the Mets won the game with a walk-off single from Francisco Lindor. The vibes are good!

Max Scherzer has pitched 27 2/3 innings over six games with a 4.88 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 1.301 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. He is coming off of one his better starts this season where he held the Nationals to one run from two hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings. How’s now hit a season high of six strikeouts in three different starts – those have also been his best starts (this is excluding the start against the Dodgers, but he was heading toward at least six K’s before he was ejected). The Guardians have the following career numbers against Max:

• Amed Rosario 5-17, 2B, HR, 8 K
• Josh Bell 5-12, 3 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• José Ramírez 1-6, 2B, 2 K
• Andrés Giménez 1-4, 3B, 2 K
• Cam Gallagher 1-3, K
• Josh Naylor 1-3
• Mike Zunino 0-3, K

The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Tanner Bibee. In his first four major league starts he has has tossed 22 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 2.71 FIP, 1.030 WHIP and a 133 ERA+. Bibee had a rough start against the Tigers back on May 8th where he allowed four runs from seven hits and four walks over 3 2/3 innings. He bounced back in a big way against the Angels his time out, holding them to only one run from two hits over 7 2/3 innings while striking out 7 batters.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets are showing power again! Álvarez hit his fifth homer of the year and Baty hit his fourth in the Mets last game. It was also the third time in four games that the Mets hit three homers in the same game – before this streak they were struggling to hit one homer in a game. This now gives the Mets 51 homers on the season, good for 14th in the league (they were sitting at 20th at the start of the week). In the last seven calendar days the Mets have hit 10 homers (all in the last four games), which puts them 6th in the league.
2. The Baby Mets. Álvarez, Baty and Vientos have been crucial for the Mets during this current winning streak. Pete Alonso leads the team with 17 homers. Francisco has 6. After that Álvarez is third on the team with five homers and Baty is tied for fourth with four homers. Vientos hit that critical homer in his first game with the Mets. When the kids are playing they are pushing the team forward.
3. Bullpen Check: The Mets bullpen probably did not complain that yesterday’s game was cancelled. Five pitchers were used in Friday’s game including Dominic Leone (25 pitches), Drew Smith (19 pitches), Stephen Nogosek (18 pitches), Adam Ottavino (16 pitches) and David Robertson (9 pitches). Nogosek, Ottavino and Robertson have each tossed at least 37 pitches in their last three games. They could use a break!

Let’s Go Mets!

For the first time in a month the Mets won a series! And it was against one of the best teams in baseball! Now the Mets look to take that same momentum into their weekend series against the Cleveland Guardians who are in the midst of a similar free fall like the Mets.

The Mets have made a few roster moves today to get ready for tonight’s game to activate tonight’s starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco and to add Gary Sánchez to the active roster. The vibes have been good the last two days with the Mets, lets go for three straight!

Carlos Carrasco will face his former club tonight in what should be a high energy night for him. Carrasco had a rough start to the season for the Mets allowing 13 runs from 14 hits and eight walks over 13 2/3 innings. His velocity was down and he just didn’t look right. After a stint on the injured list he’s had two good starts in Binghamton allowing one run on five hits over seven innings while only walking two batters. The Mets weakness this year has been starting pitching, and if Carlos can give the Mets five good innings tonight, it will be a huge boon. The Guardians have the following career numbers against Carrasco:

• Josh Bell 6-14, 2 2B, BB, 3 K
• Mike Zunino 1-6, 2 K
• Cam Gallagher 1-3

The Mets bats will get a look at Cal Quantrill tonight! Over his eight starts (45 1/3 innings) this season he has a 3.97 ERA, 4.84 FIP, 1.346 WHIP and 107 ERA+. Cal had a strong start to May allowing two runs in 14 1/3 innings. He bounced back down to Earth in his last start allowing three runs from six hits and three walks over six innings his last time out. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Eduardo Escobar 2-7, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 1-6, BB, K
• Mark Canha 0-4, BB
• Tommy Pham 2-6, HR, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 1-3
• Jeff McNeil 1-2, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 0-1, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Old Friends! The Mets and Guardians made a franchise changing trade for both teams. The Mets got Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. Lindor is a leader on the Mets for the foreseeable future and immediately became one of the best shortstops the Mets have ever signed. Amed Rosario enjoyed immediate success in Cleveland and became a 6.0 WAR player in the last three seasons. Andrés Giménez blossomed in Cleveland putting together an All-Star season last season (7.4 WAR) and signed a massive extension recently. The trade was a rare massive win for both sides.
2. Pete Alonso Still On Top! Pete Alonso homered in every game during the Rays series, bringing his season total to 16. He continues to hold the lead for homers in the majors and he leads the national league in RBIs (4th overall). Further, Pete is in the 99th percentile for xSLG and 97th in xwOBA. He’s the furnace of this club right now!
3. The Bullpen did in fact bounce back. Yesterday we talked about how we were looking for the bullpen to bounce back after an uncharacteristically bad performance on Wednesday. Raley, Brigham and Robertson all pitched scoreless innings yesterday, scattering two hits and three strikeouts.

Let’s Go Mets!

What a game last night! The New York Mets showed the same fight we saw in 2022 and came back to the beat the Rays in their most memorable win of the season. The Mets offense was non-existent throughout Kodai Senga’s history making start. The Rays were able to double their lead to 2-0 after a solo shot in the top of the seventh. Things were looking grim.

Then the Mets came back three different times, two to tie the game and one to win the game. Mark Vientos tied the game in the bottom of the seventh on a two-run shot. Francisco Álvarez hit a three-run bomb in the bottom of the ninth with two outs. Pete Alonso hit a three-run blast in the bottom of the tenth.

Now the Mets look to build on top of this energy to win a series against one of the best teams in baseball.

Tylor Megill has pitched 40 1/3 innings over eight starts with a 4.01 ERA, 5.24 FIP, 1.512 WHIP and a 104 ERA+. Things have been rough for Megill over his his last four starts where he has allowed 13 runs over 19 1/13 innings. The good news though is he hasn’t allowed any homers in his last two starts. There is no one on the Rays roster who has seen Megill in a major league game.

The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Taj Bradley today. Over three starts (15 1/3 innings) Bradley has a 3.52 ERA, 2.59 FIP, 0.913 WHIP and a 118 ERA+. Bradley made his first start on April 12th and allowed three runs over five innings to the Red Sox. He then shutout the Rays over 5 1/3 before allowing three runs over five innings to the Astros. The top Rays prospect recorded 23 strikeouts in that stretch. The Rays claim that he was sent down after the Astros start to get him used to a five-man rotation. Whatever the reason was he has been a bit off since returning to the minors, allowing 16 runs over nine innings. With the Rays injuries in their rotation, he’s probably back for good now (but it’s also the Rays so who knows).

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Which Mets Show Up Today? Until the fall of 2022, the New York Mets were known as the team you could never count out. They constantly could claw and blast their way back into games. We hadn’t seen that fight since late summer of last year, but it came back last night. Does that momentum carry over into today’s game? Could the Mets do the impossible and even score first inning runs?
2. The Mets hit homers now. After going homer-less for what felt like 37 consecutive games, the Mets have hit six homers in their last two games including two homers from Pete Alonso who is leading the league now with 15 on the season. We already know the Mets can draw walks (7th in the majors with 157) and get hit by a lot of pitches (3rd in the majors with 26). Hopefully the Mets can ride this power hot steak with their ability to get on base to rack up some runs.
3. Bullpen bounce back time. The Mets bullpen, especially the back end of the bullpen, has been the Mets strength this season. The bullpen has also had to put in a ton of extra work this season since the Mets have only had seven quality starts. Last night was an uncharacteristically bad night for the pen as they allowed six runs from four different pitchers, including two of the Mets best pitchers this season. Just like how the Mets bullpen has bailed the Mets out this year the Mets bats were able to bail the bullpen out. We are looking for the bullpen to shake last night off.

Let’s Go Mets!

Last night was a mix of some old and some new for the New York Mets. The Mets got a rough start from a pitcher who was supposed to be a source of strength for the Mets (Justin Verlander), adding to the narrative that the starting pitching is the breaking point for this team. On the new side, the Mets bats actually hit homeruns. At one point the Rays were up 6-0 and thanks to homers from Brett Baty, Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar the Mets were able to make the final score 8-5.

Can the offense come through again tonight? Can the Mets set up a rubber game for tomorrow?

Kodai Senga makes his eighth start of the season tonight. Over his first 37 innings, he has a 4.14 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 1.514 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. After back to back starts where Senga allowed only two runs over 11 innings while striking out 11 batters, he took a step back in his last start. Against the Reds last week he allowed five runs from eight eight hits and a walk over five innings, while striking out seven batters.

Josh Fleming will make his second start of the season tonight. Over eight total games and 31 2/3 innings, he has a 4.26 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 1.421 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Fleming has started since his first game of the season where he allowed five runs over three innings from 10 hits and a walk. Since then he has always pitched in relief with a minimum of three innings and a maximum of six innings. Fleming has already reached the 80 pitch plateau this season as well. His last time out was a solid bounce back. On May 7th he allowed six runs over five innings and then five days later he allowed only one run over four innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Pete Alonso 0-3
• Starling Marte 1-3
• Jeff McNeil 3-3
• Francisco Lindor 0-2
• Brandon Nimmo 0-1

I’ve been writing game previews and game threads for a long time. This is the first time the Mets have had at least five players face an opponent and only have singles, no walks and no strikeouts.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Quality Starts: The Mets are 30th in the league in quality starts. That pretty much explains the entire Mets season. Kodai Senga, who already has two quality starts this season is looking to give the Mets only their 7th quality start of the season. That would tie the Mets with the Royals. The next closest NL East team is the Marlins with 10 quality starts.
2. Alonso has a share of the homer lead again! Alonso tied Max Muncy for the season lead in homers at 14. To put this in perspective, the Mets as a ball club only have 44 homers. His homer created a moment of hope that maybe the Mets could mount a comeback. The Mets, who are overwhelmingly outscored in the first inning, could use an Alonso homer early tonight.
3. Keep the Rays in the ballpark! Paredes hit two homers last night for a total of five runs. Siri hit a massive solo shot after Bretty Baty’s bomb. The Rays lead the league with homers and it’s how they get on the scoreboard in a hurry. Kodai Senga has allowed six homers this year at a rate of 1.5 HR/9, but he has allowed only one homer in his last three games. Keep the Rays in the park tonight and the Mets will have a chance.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have gone from free-falling to sputtering over the weekend as the split a series with the Washington Nationals. During the series the Mets saw some brilliant pitching and hitting. They also saw the bats disappear and the pitching fall apart. Sometimes you need a challenge to get things going and the Mets will get that this week as the Rays (31-11) come to Queens.

The Mets turn to their ace Justin Verlander this evening to put the team back on track. In two starts this season he has allowed three runs from seven hits and three walks over 12 innings, leading to a small-sample size 2.25 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 0.833 WHIP and a 190 ERA+. In his last start he held the Reds to one run over seven innings. It was only the second time this season that a Mets starting pitcher went seven innings. The Rays have the following career numbers against him:

• Yandy Díaz 2-4, 2B, BB
• Christian Bethancourt 1-3, HR, K
• Brandon Lowe 0-3, K

The Mets bats will look to find positive consistency against Jalen Beeks who is making his fourth start of the season in his 16th game. Overall this year he has pitched 20 innings with a 5.40 ERA, 4.66 FIP, 1.250 WHIP and a 77 ERA+. He has been much more effective as a starter, totaling seven innings in three games and allowing only one earned run. His other 11 runs have come in his 13 innings in relief. He has mostly been in relief in the month of May and has been solid allowing one run over 6 2/3 innings from four hits and two walks while striking out eight. The most pitches he has thrown in an outing this year is 41 and he has tossed 28 and 31 pitches in his last two starts. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 2-3, 2 BB, K
• Tommy Pham 2-3, HR, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-2, 2B, BB, K
• Eduardo Escobar 0-2
• Michael Pérez 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Rays offense is on another level. The Rays lead the league in Runs (260), hits (395) and homers (81). The Mets pitching is the Mets pitching. We’ve experienced it for the past month and it hasn’t been that much fun. The Mets need Verlander to set the tone for the pitchers this series. The Mets bats are going to need to do their part as well.
2. First inning woes for the Mets. This tweet from Mike Mayer says it best. The Mets have been outscored 37-9 to in the first inning. It’s demoralizing. The Mets offense is immediately playing catch-up. The starting pitcher’s chance of a quality start is already in jeopardy. The bullpen starts to worry about how much work they will have to put in.
3. Starling Marte is coming around now! In his last seven games Marte has gone 10-for-28 at the plate (.357), raising his batting average from .213 to .243. We just haven’t seen Marte work a walk or get an extra base hit in that stretch.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have a chance to win a series this afternoon when they take on the Nationals for game four! After dropping the suspended game in the afternoon yesterday (despite collecting a plethora of hits) the Mets finally had an easy win in the night cap. Max Scherzer looked more like himself, the Mets got a multi-hit game from both Starling Marte and Mark Canha, the bullpen looked great.

Now the Mets try to do it one more time! Let’s go!

This could be David Peterson’s last turn in the rotation as Carlos Carrasco nears his return. Peterson has had a rough 2023 with a 7.68 ERA, 5.06 FIP, 1.676 WHIP and a 54 ERA+ over 34 innings. He currently leads the league in earned runs at 29 and has given up eight homers (HR/9 rate of 2.1). He made a spot start for Scherzer his last time out and promptly gave up four runs but settled down a bit and was able to go 3 1/3 innings. He also struggled against the Nationals last season, allowing seven runs from 14 hits and five walks over 11 innings. The Nationals have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Luis Garía 1-7, 3 K
• Keibert Ruiz 1-5, BB
• Lane Thomas, 0-4, BB, K
• Joey Meneses 1-2, BB
• CJ Abrams 0-2, K
• Carter Kieboom 0-2, K
• Alex Call 1-1

The Mets bats look to keep their momentum going against Patrick Corbin. Corbin has pitched 44 1/3 innings over eight starts with a 4.87 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.421 WHIP and an 84 ERA+ this season. Corbin is in the midst of one his better stretches right now, allowing 11 runs, 10 earned over 24 1/3 innings in his last four starts (3.70 ERA). The Mets hit Corbin well last season collecting 30 hits and 10 walks in his five starts against the Mets. The Mets turned that into 14 runs (5.11 ERA). The Mets have the following career numbers against Corbin:

• Pete Alonso 13-37, 2 2B, 5 HR, 9 BB, 11 K (1.289 OPS)
• Starling Marte 11-39, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 10 K
• Jeff McNeil 9-29, 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
• Brandon Nimmo 7-29, 2 BB, 11 K
• Francisco Lindor 7-29, 2B 8 K
• Eduardo Escobar 5-19, 2B, 2 HR, 2 K
• Mark Canha 5-15, HR, BB, K
• Tommy Pham 6-12, 2B, 4 BB, K
• Luis Guillorme 1-5
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Mets regulars starting to heat up. Starling Marte and Mark Canha have been mired in what feels like a season long slump. Marte went 2-for-4 at the plate yesterday and scored twice. Canha went 3-for-4 yesterday with two doubles and a run. Both batters drove in two runs. Marte is now 8-for-24 in his last six games. All eight hits have been singles, but this is a positive sign! If both players start to turn it on, the Mets will be in a much better place.
2. The Bullpen is tired. Even though the bullpen got Saturday night off, the bullpen put in extra work yesterday as they pitched a combined 11 innings. Nogosek and Muckenhirn each tossed at least 40 pitches. Brooks Raley returned from the injured list and tossed 33. Brigham tossed 28. Robertson hasn’t pitched since Friday night but he tossed 40 pitches in that game. The good news is Adam Ottavino and Drew Smith are rested and good to go tonight. The Mets bullpen desperately needs David Peterson to go deep into the game tonight.
3. New York Mets still collecting walks! It’s been a while since we checked in the Mets walk totals. The Mets have collected 151 walks on the season, good for sixth in the majors and just one behind the Braves and three behind the Pirates. The Mets are 20th in the majors in hits at 324. This has lead the Mets to be 27th in the majors on average runners left on base per game (7.24) just in front of their opponents today (7.30). Hopefully with the bats heating up the walks can start to turn into runs.

Let’s Go Mets!

MLB and the Washington Nationals sure made a mess of a lot of family’s Mother’s Day plans this afternoon. The Mets and Nationals were in a four hour rain delay yesterday, with the tarp being off of the field for at least two hours of the delay. After four hours of waiting, the field was determined to be unplayable and the game had to be suspended.

The situation was already handled poorly to this point, but the Nationals decided to make it worse by moving the Mother’s Day game today back three hours, to hold the suspended game first. On top of that, fans who waited through the suspended game, as of 8:30 this morning, are not getting a voucher for another game, rather they need to go to the 12:35 PM game today. Just a mess.

Of course, all of this was predicted. The rain showed up around when it was supposed to and cleared out yesterday around when it was supposed to. If the start of the game was just delayed until 7 PM none of this would have happened. Now the Mets and Nationals find themselves in a situation where they burned two starters yesterday and need to find starting solutions today. Further for the Nationals, whomever they put out first is going to enter a game with runners on 3rd and 2nd with one out in the inning.

The Mets are down 1-0, they have two runners on and only one out in the top of the third. Brandon Nimmo is at the plate. He has a chance to tie the game or give the Mets the lead. Lets play ball (again!)

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brett Baty Bounce Back: Brett Baty immediately made his bat known in the Mets lineup. He’s cooled off a bit over the last four games going 0-for-11 at the plate with two walks and two runs scored. He’s only struck out once though in this stretch, it’s not like he’s lost out there. The last time he faced Trevor Williams he went 3-for-3 with a homer.
2. Michael Pérez gets a start. Pérez got a start yesterday and already made the most of hit, getting a hit in his first trip to the plate. He’s currently standing on second! With Nido down, and Sanchez making a lot of noise in the minors Pérez needed that hit.
3. Brandon Nimmo broke his strikeout streak! Going into last night’s game, Brandon Nimmo had at least one strikeout in each of his last 12 games making for 16 strikeouts total. He went 2-for-4 at the plate last night with a walk and has now gone 6-for-12 in his last three games. He has a ridiculous .571 OBP in that stretch.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Nationals play the game they were supposed to play at around 1:35 today at 4:35 as Max Scherzer returns to the rotation and takes on Jake Irvin.

Happy Mother’s Day to everyone who is a Mother-figure in someone’s life! Hope you feel celebrated and appreciated today! For the Mets players, I hope the Nationals poor handling of yesterday’s rainout doesn’t interrupt your Mother’s Day plans too badly!

Max Scherzer’s last start was scratched due to neck spasms. His injury kept the Mets rotation for this weekend a mystery as the Mets needed to figure out how slot him back into the rotation. This season Max has made five starts (22 2/3 innings) with a 5.56 ERA, 6.29 FIP, 1.412 WHIP and a 76 ERA+. His last start was his first since his suspension and he allowed six runs from eight hits, including two homers, over 3 1/3 innings. Last season Scherzer faced the Nationals three times totaling 17 2/3 innings and had a 3.06 ERA (0.906 WHIP). The Mets would be ecstatic if that is the Max Scherzer that shows up today! The Nationals have the following career numbers against him:

• Corey Dickerson 5-18, HR, 4 K
• Dominic Smith 0-16, 2 BB, 7 K
• Keibert Ruiz 1-7, K
• Jeimer Candelario 1-5, 2 K
• Luis Garía 3-5, HR, K
• CJ Abrams 1-2
• Joe Meneses 0-2, K
• Lane Thomas 0-1, BB, K

The Mets bats draw rookie Jake Irvin today who has allowed only one earned run from six hits and seven walks in his first 10 2/3 major league innings. Before getting called up, Irvin was having a rough go of it in Rochester where over 22 1/3 innings he allowed 14 runs from 23 hits and 11 walks (5.64 ERA) but he also struck out 20 batters. The Mets are going to need to practice patience with Irvin this afternoon, working walks and raising his pitch count. More recently we’ve seen the Mets play a bit more impatient and aggressive in the second game of a doubleheader.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. How hard do the Nationals hit Scherzer? One of the most alarming things for Scherzer this season has been how hard he’s been hit. He’s in the 18th percentile for average exit velocity, 37th for hard hit percentage, 13th for expected slugging, and 7th for barrel. We’ll probably know within the first two innings today if Scherzer has been able to make adjustments.
2. One more Scherzer note. Max Scherzer dominated his starts last season – except when he had to play his hold club in D.C. He opened the season against them last year and allowed three runs over six innings. Later he he allowed three runs, two earned over 6 2/3 innings. We would take both of those starts in a heartbeat today, but last year they weren’t very Scherzer like.
3. More Francisco Álvarez. With Michael Pérez catching the first game today, we’ll get to see more of the Mets top prospect tonight (hopefully – I’m writing this at 8:30 AM so who knows). Álvarez has impressed so much already with bat and glove, and we are starting to see it appear on websites like Baseball Savant. Álvarez is already in the 92nd percentile for maximum exit velocity and he’s in the 90th percentile for pitch framing.

Let’s Go Mets!

Just like that the New York Mets have won two of their last three games.

The Mets left seven runners on base over the first three innings last night and the game started to feel like more of the same. The Mets were getting hits, working walks and not doing anything with it. They were hitting the ball hard straight into outs. The Nationals were getting soft hits and timely hits and built up a 2-0 lead that felt like a 20-0 lead. Then Francisco Lindor came up with the bases loaded and cleared them with a double. The Mets bullpen took it from there and we were all finally able to put it in the books.

Now the Mets look to do that again for the second day in a row for the first time in 73 years (or three weeks).

Joey Lucchesi makes his fifth start of the season tonight. Over 20 1/3 innings he has a 4.43 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 1.230 WHIP and a 95 ERA+. Since his amazing 2023 debut, he has allowed 10 runs from 14 hits and five walks over 13 1/3 innings (6.75 ERA). He’s already faced Washington this season allowing three runs from five hits and two walks over 5 1/3 innings. These numbers are a bit skewed thought. Lucchesi was pulled in the 6th inning with two runners on and both of those runners scored, taking him from one run to three on the day. The Nationals have the following numbers against Joey:

• Alex Call 2-2, HR, BB
• Jeimer Candelario 0-3, K
• Corey Dickerson 0-3
• Joey Meneses 1-3
• Keibert Ruiz 1-3
• Lane Thomas 1-2, BB, K
• CJ Abrams 0-2
• Michael Chavis 0-2
• Carter Kieboom 1-2

The Mets bats will get to face an old friend in Trevor Williams this afternoon. Across seven starts (36 innings) Williams has a 4.25 ERA, 4.85 FIP, 1.33 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. Williams is coming off of a rough start where he allowed five runs from seven hits and a two walks over 4 1/3 innings. Williams was also the opposing pitcher last time Lucchesi started against the Nationals. Williams in that game allowed four runs over five innings from nine hits and two walks. The Mets have the following career numbers against Williams:

• Tommy Pham 3-16, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-10, 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-11, 2B, 3 K
• Pete Alonso 2-10, 2B, HR, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-7, 3 K
• Eduardo Escobar 2-6, 2B
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-3, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 0-2, BB
• Luis Guillorme 0-3
• Mark Canha 1-2, K
• Brett Baty 3-3, HR
• Francisco Álvarez 1-2, BB, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brett Baty Bounce Back: Brett Baty immediately made his bat known in the Mets lineup. He’s cooled off a bit over the last four games going 0-for-11 at the plate with two walks and two runs scored. He’s only struck out once though in this stretch, it’s not like he’s lost out there. The last time he faced Trevor Williams he went 3-for-3 with a homer.
2. Who’s closing the door today? The Mets put Ottavino in for the 7th inning last night and asked Robertson to get six outs. Robertson looked great in the 8th but a bit tired in the 9th and eventually Drew Smith had to come get the last out. In the last three days Robertson has thrown 53 pitches, including 40 last night. Ottavino has thrown in three of the last four games, but has only thrown 27 pitches (he’s gone 12, 13 and then 14 pitches which is kind-of neat to look at). Drew Smith the most fresh, only throwing once in the last three games, with that game being only four pitches last night.
3. Brandon Nimmo broke his strikeout streak! Going into last night’s game, Brandon Nimmo had at least one strikeout in each of his last 12 games making for 16 strikeouts total. He went 2-for-4 at the plate last night with a walk and has now gone 6-for-12 in his last three games. He has a ridiculous .571 OBP in that stretch.

Let’s Go Mets!