213 Miles From Shea

Yesterday may have been the most frustrating Mets loss of the season. They opened the game with a 5-1 lead, looking like they were going to roll through the Yankees. Then Max Scherzer lost control of the game, the Mets made several defensive miscues and they suffered a series of aggravating umpire decisions. Despite all of that, the Mets had a chance to win the game in the 8th inning with the bases loaded and couldn’t bring anyone home. Then in a head-scratching situation, Buck Showalter didn’t use either of his power bats on the bench in the ninth inning when down by one run.

As a result the Mets are now five games below .500 and they are without a key reliever, Drew Smith, for the next ten games. There was a glimmer of hope at the start of the game yesterday that the Mets were emerging out of their free fall, but it’s clear the Mets are still plummeting.

Justin Verlander, the Mets big off-season acquisition, has a chance to stop the Mets free fall tonight. Over seven starts and 39 innings, Verlander has a 4.85 ERA, 4.92 FIP, 1.333 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. He is in a pattern right now where every other start is either terrible or amazing. On May 16th he allowed six runs over five innings, then he tossed a one-run, eight inning gem. Then on May 27th he allowed six runs over five innings, then he allowed one run over six. His last time out he allowed five runs, four earned, over just three innings against Atlanta. Does the pendulum swing back tonight? The Yankees have the following career numbers against him:

• Josh Donaldson 7-21, 2 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
• DJ LeMahieu 6-18, 2B, HR, 2 K
• Gleyber Torres 2-15, 5 K
• Willie Calhoun 5-11, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Giancalro Stanton 2-11, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2-9, HR, 2 K
• Jake Bauers 1-7, BB, 3 K
• Anthony Rizzo 0-2, BB

The Mets bats will close out the two game series against the Yankees ace, Gerrit Cole. Cole has made 14 starts and tossed 85 2/3 innings this year with a 2.84 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.144 WHIP and a 147 ERA+. Cole ended May with two rough starts in a row where he allowed a combined 11 runs, 10 earned, over 11 innings. Since then he has pitched 12 innings allowing only three runs from 11 hit sand three walks while striking out 11. The Mets have the following career numbers against Cole:

• Tommy Pham 10-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, 10 K
• Mark Canha 2-13, 2B, BB, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-11, 2 BB, 2 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-13, BB, 7 K
• Omar Narváez 1-13, 8 K
• Starling Marte 1-6
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, K
• Luis Guillorme 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 2-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Does Cole keep the ball in the park? Cole ended the month of April with a 1.11 ERA. His May ERA was 5.18. The difference was homers. He didn’t allow a single homer in the month of April. He allowed eight in May, and they all came in pairs. In June so far he has allowed one. Cole has had only one good-ish start when he’s allowed two homers in the same game, which makes sense.
2. Mark Canha’s resurgence continues. Mark was on base twice last night and in his last four games he’s gone 5-for-14 with three doubles, slashing .357/.438/.571. Since May 31st he’s hitting .313/.405/.594. More importantly, he’s driven in 10 runs since May 31st, which is about half of his RBI total for the season.
3. The Mets are down a bullpen pitcher. The Mets had a bullpen shakeup over the weekend and a seven inning performance from Kodai Senga on Saturday. That, coupled with the off-day on Monday meant that the Mets bullpen was fairly well rested. That ended up being very important as the Mets needed to use five bullpen arms last night and lost an additional arm with the Smith ejection. Adam Ottavino and Brooks Raley are completely rested and ready to go today if Verlander can go seven innings. If not, Robertson can go again. If Verlander cannot go deep, the Mets are going need to burn through most of the pen again, but they do have another off-day tomorrow for extra rest.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Yankees meet tonight for part one of their annual Subway Series. The Yankees currently sit in third place in the AL East with a 38-29 record, but out 4-6 over their last ten games. The Mets are in fourth place in the NL East at 31-35 and have won only two games of their last 10. The Yankees are without their most exciting bat, Aaron Judge. The Mets are sorely missing the driver of their offense in Pete Alonso.

It’s no secret that for the Mets, the starting pitching has let the team down. In this two game series with their cross town rivals, the Mets will be sending out their two biggest stars – Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. If there was ever a time to make a statement, it’s right now!

Over ten starts (53 1/3 innings) Max Scherzer has a 3.71 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.181 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. Scherzer is coming off of a start where he started off great and then wheels just fell off. By the time he left in the sixth inning, he allowed five runs despite striking out a season high 10 batters. In his four starts before this he had allowed only four runs, three earned, over 25 innings (1.08 ERA). Scherzer had two very different starts against the Yankees last season. At Citi Field he held them to no runs over seven innings. In the Bronx he allowed four runs over 6 2/3. The Yankees have the following career numbers against him:

• Anthony Rizzo 6-23, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Josh Donaldson 3-20, 2B, 3B, 4 BB, 4 K
• Giancarlo Stanton 6-24, 3 HR, 12 K
• DJ LeMahieu 5-14, BB, 3 K
• Harrison Bader 2-12, 2B, 4 K
• Gleyber Torres 0-8, BB, 3 K
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa 3-6, 2 2B, K

Luis Severino returned to the Yankees from the injured list at the end of May and honestly his situation feels so Mets like it’s confusing he’s not on our roster. This season, over four starts and 20 1/3 innings, he has a 5.75 ERA, 7.15 FIP, 1.328 WHIP and a 73 ERA+. He has a diminished velocity that he needs to work around and is giving up homers at an astonishingly high rate of 3.1 HR/9. Most of his numbers are skewed in his last two starts. In his first two he allowed only three runs, two earned, over 11 1/3 innings, scattering five hits. Since then he has allowed 11 runs over nine innings from 15 hits and six homers. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 5-14, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-5, 2B, 2 BB, K
• Mark Canha 1-6, HR
• Tommy Pham 1-4, 2B
• Omar Narváez 0-3
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-2
• Eduardo Escobar 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Jeff McNeil hit a homer! The Mets offense was not existent on Sunday, but Jeff McNeil did hit his third homer of the season. He’s been struggling to find power at the plate but has come around a bit over his last five games where he has gone 5-for-21 with a double and homer slashing .238/.304/.429. On the season he is slugging .354 so this is a slight improvement. The Mets would love for this to be start of something.
2. Yankees bats are also struggling. It’s not just the Mets bats that are underperforming. Anthony Rizzo is 0-for-19 in his last five games with two walks (but only two strikeouts). Josh Donaldson is 2-for-22 over his last seven games, but his two hits were both homers. Stanton is 1-for-14 in his last five games.
3. The Oakland Athletics Reverse Boycott. If you didn’t know, the Athletics are trying to move to Las Vegas. The whole situation is pretty terrible. The very short version is the ownership group has torn down the Athletics roster over the last couple of years while raising prices and not improving the stadium. Fans have done what they should do in that situation and stopped attending games. The ownership group then used the drop in attendance, that they caused, as evidence for why they should move. I’m glossing over a lot of details here. Anyway today is their reverse boycott where they are going to fill the stadium and they are asking for solidarity in the baseball world. You may see people at the game today, or just around New York City supporting their cause today.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets did it! They snapped their losing streak!

The Mets beat the Pirates 5-1 yesterday thanks to another homerun Francisco Álvarez and a three RBI day from Mark Canha. Kodai Senga gave the Mets their first quality start in ages, going seven innings allowing one unearned run, despite the Mets gloves behind him committing three errors. Robertson and Ottavino shut the door in the 8th and 9th. This is exactly what the Mets look like, despite the defensive miscues, when they are at their best. Now the Mets look to repeat that same magic today and take the series.

Carlos Carrasco looks to get back on the right track this afternoon as he makes his 8th start this season. In 36 1/3 innings he has a 5.94 ERA, 6.08 FIP, 1.404 WHIP and a 69 ERA+. Carrasco had back to back great starts where he allowed two runs from 11 hits and three walks over 12 2/3 innings but faltered in his last start where he allowed four runs over five. His one start against Pittsburgh last season was a great one. He held the Pirates to one run from four hits while he struck out 11 batters over six innings (one of two double digit strikeout games he had in 2022). The Pirates have the following career numbers against him:

• Ji Man Choi 3-12, 2 HR, 7 K
• Andrew McCutchen 2-7, 2 2B, BB, 2 K
• Bryan Reynolds 2-7, K
• Ke’Bryan Hayes 0-5, BB, K
• Rodolfo Castro 0-3, K
• Oneil Cruz 0-3, 2 K
• Connor Joe 1-3
• Calvin Mitchel 0-1, 2 BB
• Jason Delay 0-2, K
• Jack Suwinski 0-2, 2 K

Mitch Keller makes the start today for the Pirates. He currently leads the league in winning percentage, .778, with his 7-2 and record this season. Over 80 innings he has a 3.60 ERA, 3.16 FIP, 1.163 WHIP and a 122 ERA+. Keller has not pitched like his season numbers though in his last three starts. Over 17 1/3 innings he’s allowed 15 runs (7.79 ERA, 4.95 ERA) from 25 hits and seven walks. He faced the Mets twice last season in September. In the first game in Pittsburgh he allowed no runs over six innings. Ten days later he allowed three runs over six innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 2-5, 4 BB, K
• Tommy Pham 2-8, BB
• Omar Narváez 4-8
• Jeff McNeil 0-6, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-5, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-4, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
• Mark Canha 1-4, K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-3, BB, K
• Luis Guillorme 1-3
• Starling Marte 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham has arrived! Yesterday Tommy Pham went 2-for-4 at the plate scoring twice, including his seventh double of the season. In his last nine games he has gone 10-for-25 at the plate with four doubles, a triple and three homers leading to a .400/.467/1.000 batting line. As Vogelbach’s struggles continue, Pham is starting to heat up. With Alosno down for the next three to four weeks, Pham should see an increase in playing time. This is the contribution the Mets need to find in a couple of more bats in their lineup if they are going to go on a little run now.
2. Is it Canha Season again? Outside of Pham and Vientos, the other player who is going to become more important with Alonso’s injury is Mark Canha. Canha had a four game hitting streak between May 31st and June 3rd which made us think that it was Canha season. Then he went cold going 0-for-7 in his next two starts. This weekend he has gone 3-for-8 with two doubles and drove the Mets offense yesterday. He could be the Mets player of the series today.
3. Will the Mets field like the Mets today? Brandon Nimmo make a gold glove caliber catch yesterday. According to Baseball Savant he is in the 82nd percentile for outs above average. Álvarez made a tremendous throw yesterday and caught a runner stealing. The Mets have been fielding well this year. They are 8th in the league in errors per game at a paltry 0.43. That’s why it’s so surprising they made three errors yesterday and six in their last three games.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets losing streak has reached seven games as the Mets lost the series opener last night to the Pirates 14-7. In what has become a recent theme for the Mets, the starting pitch failed and this time the bullpen blew up next. The Mets have now scored 17 runs in their last two games, great for a team that’s been struggling at the plate and without their best hitter, but have no wins to show for it.

Kodai Senga looks to get the Mets back in the win column this afternoon. Over 11 starts (57 2/3 innings), Senga has a 3.75 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.439 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. His last game, his first on regular rest this season, was a bit rough as he allowed four runs, three earned, over 2 2/3 innings from four four hits and five walks. It was a stark difference from his previous start where he allowed one hit and no walks while striking out nine over seven innings. He also allowed a homerun for the first in his last start since May 11th. As we’ve seen by now, walks are Senga’s main weakness. When he’s really off, the walks and homers produce a bad mix. We’ve also seen that when he’s on, he’s almost unhittable. The Mets desperately need that version of Senga tonight.

The Mets bats look to keep getting hits and runs against Johan Oviedo this afternoon. Oviedo has made 12 starts (65 innings) with a 4.29 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.477 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. Over his last five starts and 28 innings he’s had a 2.57 ERA (4.46 ERA). The Mets faced him twice last year, scoring seven times over a combined 5 2/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, BB, K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-6, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-4, 2 BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 2-4, BB, K
• Francisco Lindor 1-3, BB, K
• Tommy Pham 1-2, 2 BB, K
• Mark Canha 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 0-1, BB, K
• Omar Narváez 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets need a quality start tonight. Last weekend the Mets played the Blue Jays and got swept. It was also the first time all season where the Mets got quality starts from their starting pitchers and didn’t win the game. It was going to happen eventually. The Mets have now gone five games in a row with bad to terrible starts from their starters. The kicker is in four of those games, whether it was when the starter was on the mound or when the bullpen took over – the Mets had the lead at one point. The bullpen needs a chance to reset itself, and that can happen tonight if Senga goes six innings, allows three runs or less and the Mets have lead by the time the bottom of the seventh rolls around.
2. Vientos had a solid day. Thursday was a day to forget for Vientos. He went 0-for-5 at the plate, striking out three times. Yesterday he went 1-for-3 with a walk. His hit drove in his fifth run of the season. Vientos has not seen consistent playing time in a while. When he was seeing consistent time in the minors, he was absolutely destroying the ball at the plate. With Alonso down for an extended period of time, Vientos should be getting consistent playing time (he should have gotten consistent time before that too but that’s another conversation).
3. It’s happened before folks. On June 26th, 2018 the Mets ended a seven game losing streak against the Pirates when Wilmer Flores had a walk-off hit in the 10th inning. Can the Mets end a similar streak tonight against the same opponents?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets roll into Pittsburgh tonight in a tough place. The Mets entered last weekend three games above .500 and then promptly got swept by the Blue Jays. In that series the pitching was there but the offense evaporated. Then the Mets went to Atlanta and blew huge leads in three consecutive games. Can the Mets get the pitching and hitting to click at the same time?

The Mets bats will have to face the surprising Pittsburgh Pirates who are in second place right now in the NL Central, one game behind the lead. They aren’t winning at the same pace they were earlier this season, but they’ve still won six of their last 10 games and have the second best run differential in the division at -2 (the best run differential is +1 for the last place St. Louis Cardinals).

Tylor Megill looks to get the Mets pitching back on track tonight. Over 12 starts and 59 1/3 innings, Megill has a 4.40 ERA, 5.19 FIP, 1.618 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. He’s coming off of a strong start against the Blue Jays where he held them to one run, despite allowing five hits and five walks. The Pirates have the following numbers against him:

• Ke’Bryan Hayes 3-5, K
• Bryan Reynolds 1-5
• Rodolfo Castro 0-2, 2 K
• Wil Crowe 0-2
• Andrew McCutchen 0-1, BB, K

The Mets get to face an old friend tonight – Rich Hill. Over 12 starts and 65 1/3 innings, Hill has a 4.41 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.378 WHIP and a 99 ERA+. Like Megill, Hill is also coming off of a good start after two rough starts. In his last start he allowed one run from four hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. In his two starts before that he allowed 11 runs over 11 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Hill:

• Starling Marte 3-11, 2B, BB, K
• Mark Canha 0-5, BB, 2 K
• Franacisco Lindor 2-8
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, 2B, 3 K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-2
• Tommy Pham 1-4, HR, BB, K
• Pete Alonso 0-3, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Baby Mets are back! Yesterday we wrote about how the Baby Mets were starting to show signs of coming around at the plate. Yesterday Batty went 2-for-4 at the plate with a walk. Álvarez went 2-for-5 at the plate, hitting two homers which now makes three homers in two days. Vientos got a start last night and struggled at the plate with three strikeouts, but he also has incredibly inconsistent playing time over last couple of weeks. Can the Baby Mets keep this going in Pittsburgh
2. Can the bullpen pick itself up? The starting pitching the last couple of days, with the Mets twin aces pitching, has not done the Mets bullpen any favors. Bullpens eventually buckle when over worked and we saw that last night. For the first time in a while, everyone in the Mets bullpen has pitched over the last three calendar days. Nogosek, Brigham, Robertson, Raley, Ottavino and Smith have each tossed over 30 pitches in the last three calendar days.
3. Who is providing the power? With the Mets three homers last night, they’ve now had 76 on the season, which is good for 10th in the league. At the start of the season, their power was only coming from Pete Alonso. Now Álvarez and Lindor are helping Alonso out. Between the three of them, they have hit 44 homers this season. Then there’s a power vacuum on the team. This is a symptom of why the Mets offense tends to disappear from time to time, it’s riding on three bats. Pham has recently started to add some power and it would be wonderful if Canha, Marte and McNeil could too.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets will try to snap their five game losing streak and avoid getting swept for a second consecutive series tonight against the Atlanta Braves. Last night, for the second game in a row, the Mets blew a 4-1 lead. At least last night they eventually tied the game again, but would later lose as the offense and the bullpen fell short.

In the first inning last night Pete Alonso got hit on the hand/wrist by a Charlie Morton pitch. X-Rays came back negative and it’s been diagnosed as a contusion. Some Braves fans started to cheer after Alonso went down in a disgusting display of behavior. The Mets pitchers wisely and correctly did not retaliate.

Justin Verlander looks to put the Mets back on track tonight in the battle of the aces as he goes up against Spencer Strider. Over six starts (36 innings) Verlander has a 4.25 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.139 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. He’s coming off of a good start where he held the Blue Jays to one run over six innings, scattering five hits and three walks. The Mets eventually lost that game because the offense disappeared. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Matt Olson 5-21, 2B, 2 HR, 7 K
• Eddie Rosario 3-20, 2B, 4 K
• Ehire Adrianza 2-7, HR, 4 K
• Kevin Pillar 2-7, K
• Sean Murphy 1-5, 3 K
• Marcell Ozuna 1-3, K
• Travis d’Arnaud 1-2, K

The Mets bats have to deal with the ace of the Atlanta staff tonight – Spencer Strider. Over 12 starts (69 2/3 innings) this season, Strider has a 2.97 ERA, 2.60 FIP, 1.005 WHIP and a 150 ERA+. He is currently leading the league with 113 strikeouts, a 14.6 K/9 rate and a 5.7 H/9 rate. That being said, Strider has been a bit more human recently, allowing 12 runs, 10 earned, over his last four starts and 23 innings (3.91 ERA, 4.59 FIP). During this stretch he has still struck out the world (34 batters), but also allowed five of the seven homers he’s given up this season. In three starts against the Mets last season he had a 4.38 ERA from allowing six runs from 14 hits over 12 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Brandon Nimmo 5-12, 3B, HR, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 5-11, 3B, BB, 2 K
• Pete Alonso 2-9, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-8, 2 BB, 4 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-7, 2B
• Mark Canha 2-6, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 1-5, 2 BB, 2 K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-3, 2B, BB
• Tommy Pham 0-4, 3 K
• Brett Baty 0-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham hot streak loading. In his last six games, Pham has gone 6-for-12 at the plate with a double, a triple and three homers. Buck Showalter, from spring training through rough patches this season, has always defended Tommy Pham specifically how hard he hits the ball. He is currently sitting in the 91st percentile for maximum exit velocity. The Mets need anyone on a hot streak to step right now, can it be Tommy?
2. The Baby Mets got hits last night. While Vientos has been inexplicably on the bench recently while Vogelbach struggles, the other baby Mets got a few hits and hard hit balls last night. Brett Baty had a single that drove in run in the first inning. Francisco Álvarez crushed a solo shot right after Alonso got hit by a pitch. Can they continue to deliver tonight?
3. Working Counts. The Mets worked six walks last night and struck out only seven times. It was the first time during this losing streak they didn’t have double digit strikeouts. It was also the first time in a while we’ve seen the Mets make a starting pitcher work, which is a hallmark of the Mets offense when things are going good. Leading the pack was Brandon Nimmo who had two strikeouts and now has 31 on the season (tied for 18th in the league). Spencer Strider has a high strikeout rate, a low hit rate but he does walk more batters than you think he would. His 3.4 BB/9 means the Mets can afford to be patient and make him work a little.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to break their four game losing streak tonight as they take on Atlanta for game two of their series. Last night the Braves got on the board in the second inning and the Mets immediately responded by hitting two, two-run homers in the top of the third. The Mets would eventually give the lead back though and the offense couldn’t be bothered to produce any more runs.

Can the Mets offense break through the struggles tonight?

The Mets turn to Max Scherzer to right the ship tonight. In nine starts (47 2/3 innings) Scherzer has a 3.21 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.091 WHIP and a 129 ERA+. In his last four starts he has tossed 25 innings allowing only four runs, three earned, leading to a 1.08 ERA (2.16 FIP) while striking out 28 batters. He’s pitched seven innings now in back to back starts. Last season he pitched 26 innings over four games against the Braves with a 3.12 ERA. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Marcell Ozuna 13-50, 7 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 15 K
• Travis d’Arnaud 7-33, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 12 K
• Ronald Acuña Jr. 9-32, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, BB, 9 K
• Ozzie Albies 4-25, 3 BB, 10 K
• Austin Riley 4-18, 2B, HR, 7 K
• Eddie Rosario 1-12, BB, 6 K
• Matt Olson 3-12, HR, 6 K
• Michael Harris II 1-9, BB
• Kevin Pillar 3-8, 2 HR, 4 K
• Ehire Adrianza 1-5, K
• Orlando Arcia 2-5, 2B, 2 K
• Sean Murphy 1-3, 2B

The Mets bats will face off against the ageless Charlie Morton this evening. Over 11 starts (64 2/3 innings) Morton has a 3.62 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 1.438 WHIP and a 123 ERA+. His last two starts have gone about the same as his season numbers, allowing five runs over 12 1/3 innings from 13 hits and four walks while striking out 18 batters. In four starts against the Mets last year he allowed 13 runs, 12 earned from 25 hits and eight walks over 21 2/3 innings (4.98 ERA). The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 5-37, 2 2B, HR, BB, 10 K
• Pete Alonso 6-21, 2B, BB, 4 K
• Starling Marte 4-19, 2 BB, 7 K
• Jeff McNeil 5-18, 7 K
• Brandon Nimmo 4-18, BB, 6 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 5-15, 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 6 K
• Eduardo Escobar 5-17, HR, BB, 4 K
• Mark Canha 3-13, HR, BB, 5 K
• Omar Narváez 3-12, 2B, HR, BB, 3 K
• Tommy Pham 1-7, HR, BB, 4 K
• Brett Baty 1-2, 2B, K
• Francisco Álvarez 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Strikeouts continue to stifle the Mets offense. Yesterday we talked about how the Mets have three consecutive games with double digit strikeouts as a team. They did it again yesterday with Nimmo, Vogelbach and Marte each having double digit strikeout days. Vogelbach fared the worst going 0-for-4 with three stikeouts. The Mets need to figure this out.
2. Can the Mets score from anything other than a homer? I love home runs, this is not a knock on the Mets finding power after they went weeks without hitting a homerun. Last night was the second game in a row when all the Mets runs came on homers. On Sunday the Mets hit four solo homers. Last night they hit two, two-run homers. Sometimes though you need a good, small-ball rally for crooked numbers on the scoreboard and to make the other team work a little.
3. Most of the Mets bullpen is ready to go tonight. The Mets used Ottavino and Smith last night (both gave up a run). Robertson and Raley are well rested though, they haven’t pitched since Saturday. It’s getting to the point that one or both of them may be used tonight even if game script doesn’t dictate it.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets head into Atlanta for a very important three game series. Last week the Mets swept the Phillies then got swept by the Blue Jays. Now the Mets sit exactly at .500 in third place in the NL East, 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are 11 games above .500 and like the Mets they have also gone 5-5 in their last 10 games. A series win could prove to be vital for the Mets, and that starts with picking up the first game tonight.

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for the Amazin’s tonight. Over six starts (31 1/3 innings) this season he has a 5.74 ERA, 6.09 FIP, 1.372 WHIP and a 72 ERA+. He has been much better in his last two games, allowing only two earned runs over 12 2/3 innings, scattering 11 hits and three walks. Both runs in each game were from solo homers, which is still his weak point in his game this season. He had a 3.38 ERA over 16 innings and three games against the Braves last season where he allowed 14 hits and four walks. Three of those 14 hits were homers. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Eddie Rosario 13-38, 2 2B, 3 HR, 5 BB, 9 K
• Kevin Pillar 2-15, 3B, BB, 3 K
• Ehire Adrianza 2-13, 4 K
• Matt Olson 5-12, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 2 K
• Orlando Arcia 1-9, 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
• Ronald Acuña Jr. 3-8, 2 2B, HR, BB, K
• Austin Riley 0-8, BB, 3 K
• Travis d’Arnaud 2-7, 3 K
• Marcell Ozuna 1-6, K
• Ozzie Albies 1-3
• Michael Harris II 1-3

The Mets bats will get a look at Bryce Elder today. The 24-year old is in his second big league season and is currently leading the league in ERA (1.92) and ERA+ (231) over 11 starts and 65 2/3 innings. In the month of May Elder made five starts allowing only seven runs over 36 2/3 innings (1.72 ERA, 2.98 FIP) while allowing 31 hits and 10 walks. You would expect someone with a 1.92 ERA to have a WHIP lower than 1.157 (although that is still a good WHIP). The reason Elder’s ERA is so low is he keeps the ball in the ballpark. He allows 0.5 HR/9 which is even better than his 0.7 rate last season. Elder faced the Mets once last season in Atlanta and allowed three runs from five hits over 2 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Mark Canha 0-1
• Luis Guillorme 1-2
• Jeff McNeil 0-2, K
• Pete Alonso 0-1
• Francisco Lindor 0-0, BB
• Starling Marte 1-1
• Brandon Nimmo 1-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Homers weren’t enough on Sunday. Can the offense come through today? The Mets bats this weekend were pretty much silent, which is why they got swept by the Blue Jays. On Sunday the bats woke up with four solo homers leading to the four runs the Mets scored (two from Pham, one from Alonso and Marte). But in the end the Blue Jays were able to score two more runs late and seal the Mets fate. Tonight the Mets go against a pitcher who hasn’t allowed a lot of homers this year. Can the Mets get the offense going again?
2. A new catching and DH situation for the Mets. Omar Narváez returns to the Mets tonight, which led to Tomás Nido being DFA’d yesterday. Francisco Álvarez was called up to the major league squad to replace Narváez after his injury. Now the Mets will need to balance Narváez and Álvarez getting playing time, while the DH spot is already being split between Vogelbach/Pham/Vientos. It feels like another roster move is looming.
3. Strikeouts galore. The Mets bats did not have a fun time at the plate this weekend – you already knew this. They struck out a combined 32 times over three games. On Friday night they struck out 10 total times, with Nimmo, Lindor, Baty, and Vientos each having multiple strikeouts. On Saturday they struck out 11 total times with Nimmo, Lindor and Baty each having multiple strikeouts for a second consecutive day. On Sunday Lindor had his third consecutive day with multiple strikeouts as the Mets struck out 11 more times as a team.

Let’s Go Mets!

For a second straight game the Mets offense was non-existent and despite excellent pitching the Mets fell 2-1. Now the Mets will try to salvage the series and sneak out with a win. Can the Mets get the hitting and the pitching to get hot at the same time?

Kodai Senga takes the mound today for the Mets. Over 10 starts and 55 innings Senga has a 3.44 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.345 WHIP and a 121 ERA+. He is coming off of his best start of the season where he held the Phillies to one run and no walks over seven innings while striking out nine batters. Previously he was being hurt by high walk totals. This is absolutely what you want to see from Senga as he gets more and more acclimated to the majors.

Senga will face off today against Yusei Kikuchi who is having a better season than last year. Over 11 starts (56 1/3 innings) this season he has a 4.47 ERA, 5.97 FIP, 1.402 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. His WHIP has dropped about 100 points from last season (1.500) because his walks have dropped (3.0 BB/9 vs 5.2 last season). That being said, his last four starts have been rough. He’s allowed 15 runs, 14 earned, from 23 hits and 11 walks over 18 2/3 innings. He’s been hurt by the long ball in this stretch allowing seven. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Mark Canha 5-17, 2 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 4 K
• Tommy Pham 1-2, 2 BB
• Eduardo Escobar 1-2, 2B, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-3, K
• Starling Marte 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Kodai Senga starts on regular rest. For the first time season Kodai Senga will start on regular rest. Pitchers in Japan have about a week between starts. Pitchers in MLB usually start every five days. The Mets have been easing Senga into the rotation this season, which has been a bit easier to do so far with the Mets off-days and rainouts. Today Senga will get his first start on regular rest. We are looking to see if he still pitches a comparable amount to previous games, his effectiveness and if he’s going to get extra rest before his next start.
2. Alonso has gone cold. This is not the first time this season that Alonso has gone cold. Over his last five games he is 2-for-19 with one run scored. He’s only struck out three times though. Alonso has emerged from similar stretches with hot streaks where he hits a home run every other night. Kikuchi’s weakness is homeruns. He’s given them up at a rate of 2.4 per nine innings (and his career mark is 1.8).
3. Stikeouts crushed the Mets yesterday. The Mets struck out 11 times yesterday including Nimmo with two, Lindor with three and Baty with three. Lets see early on in the game if the Mets can reverse this trend.

Let’s Go Mets!

For the first time this season the Mets got a quality start from a pitcher and did not win the ball game. Justin Verlander held the Blue Jays to only one run over six innings while striking out eight batters, but the Mets offense could only muster a total of four hits.

The Mets look to get back in the win column tonight as they take on the Blue Jays for game two.

Tylor Megill looks to put his last two starts behind him tonight. Over 11 starts and 54 innings this season he has a 4.67 ERA, 5.28 FIP, 1.593 WHIP and an 89 ERA+. His WHIP so far this season is about 300 points higher than his previous two seasons, and that’s led to most of the struggles he’s faced. Over his last two starts he has allowed 12 runs, eight earned, from 16 hits and four walks over 7 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed only four runs, three earned, from eight hits over 11 innings. Megill has had more success at home this year, 3.29 ERA vs 6.08 ERA, in a similar amount of innings. His home WHIP is 1.171 vs a 2.025 on the road. The Blue Jays have the following career numbers against him:

• Brandon Belt 3-7, 2 HR, 2 BB, K
• Bo Bichette 0-2, BB
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 0-3, K
• Daulton Varsho 1-3, K
• Cavan Biggio 1-2, K
• George Springer 0-2

The Mets bats will get a look at José Berríos this afternoon. Berríos is coming off of a season where he led the league in hits (199) and earned runs (100). He’s been far better this season with a 3.86 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.255 WHIP and a 106 ERA+ over 65 1/3 innings. In his last two starts he has allowed only one run from nine hits and 12 2/3 innings while striking out 10 batters. In his last five starts (31 1/3 innings) he has a 2.30 ERA (in the six starts before that he had a 5.29 ERA). Will his hot streak continue? Can the Mets make him look the Berríos from April? The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Francisco Lindor 9-32, 4 2B, HR, 2 BB, 4 K
• Mark Canha 2-14, HR, 6 K
• Daniel Vogelbach 3-8, HR< 2 K
• Tommy Pham 0-3, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. It’s still Mark Canha szn. Mark Canha continued his terrific week yesterday going 1-for-3 at the plate and recording his third stolen base of the season. Not a crazy batting line, but the offense was pretty lackluster yesterday. He’s having a great week hopefully he keeps it going through the weekend.
2. Baby Mets are hitting a bit of a rough patch. Brett Baty is 2-for-17 in his last five games (but both hits were doubles!). Francisco Álvarez is 1-for-15 over his last four games, but the one hit was a homer. Mark Vientos is 1-for-10 in his last four games. They all couldn’t be on super hot streaks at the same time. They all can’t continue to be on cold streaks at the same time. Something will give eventually!
3. The Mets are stealing a lot more recently. The Mets as a team have 41 stolen bases on the year, which is tied for 14th in the league. A significant portion of those stolen bases come from Starlin Marte who has 17 on the season. For context, the Rays lead the league with 77. In the last seven days the Mets have stolen six bases, which is tied for 7th in the league.

Let’s Go Mets!