213 Miles From Shea

The Mets will try to turn a new page this evening after possibly their worst game of the year yesterday. The Mets imploded in the 8th inning and lost a three-run lead thanks to an error and hitting two Phillies with the bases loaded. Buck Showalter made the curious decision to not use his best reliever in the bullpen while the gaming was slipping away. In the end, the Mets lost a game that they both needed to win and should have won. Things in Metsville are getting pretty bad with their playoff chances falling to 16% on Fangraphs.

Justin Verlander looks to turn around the team fortunes tonight as he makes his 10th start as a Met. Over 52 innings he has a 4.50 ERA, 4.33 FIP, 1.212 WHIP and a 93 ERA+. Since his second start of the season he has had good start followed by a bad start over and over again. Last time out was a bad start, allowing four runs over seven innings. Before that he allowed one run over six innings. If the pattern holds, tonight should be a good one. The Brewers have the following career numbers against Verlander:

• Jesse Winker 3-20, 2B, HR, 6 K
• Abraham Toro 0-9, K
• Christian Yelich 0-6, 2 K
• Willy Adames 1-5, 2 K
• Raimel Tapia 1-3
• Rowdy Tellez 0-3, 3 K

Colin Rea is on the bump tonight for the Brewers. Over 13 games and 62 2/3 innings this season he has a 4.88 ERA, 4.86 FIP, 1.277 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. He has struggled in his last two starts, allowing nine runs, eight earned, over 10 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Pham 0-3, BB, K
• Starling Marte 0-3, K
• Omar Narváez 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 0-1, K
• Danny Mendick 0-1, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets set the tone for the series early? Colin Rea has struggled recently, but has pitched at least five innings in all but one of his starts this season. The Mets have an opportunity today to capitalize on his recent struggles, get him out of the game early and get into a Brewers bullpen that has pitched a lot in the last three days. This can cascade through the rest of the series.
2. Pete is still in the homer chase. One of the few bright spots for the Mets this season has been Pete Alonso’s power. He hit his 24th homer of the season yesterday and trails Matt Olson and Shohei Ohtani by one.
3. Brett Baty has quietly been collecting hits. Whether Buck plays Baty is another story, but Baty has been quietly collecting hits recently. In his last eight games he’s gone 10-for-32 at the plate with a double and seven runs scored. This gives him a .313 batting average compared to his .243 season batting average. His OBP isn’t that different than his season numbers (+0.015), due to his walk numbers and the power has disappeared. All that being said, he’s getting on base and figuring things out. He has four multi-hit games in his last eight.

Let’s Go Mets!

The last time the Mets won a series was against the Phillies on June 1st. The Mets will attempt to win another series against the Phillies, and get back on the right track this afternoon as they take on the Phillies in the rubber game.

Max Scherzer labored through the humidity yesterday and kept the Mets in the game all afternoon. When the Phillies erased the Mets 2-0 lead, the Mets were able punch right back and take a 4-2 lead. The Mets showed two things yesterday that they displayed all the time in 2022. First, the ability to take the lead right back after they lost. Second, to score runs by keeping the line moving. Was it a blip in 2023? Or can it become a trend?

Carlos Carrasco takes the mound today for the Mets. Showalter has scrambled the rotation a bit, having Max Scherzer yesterday pitch on regular rest in order to insert Carrasco in-between Scherzer and Verlander. Over nine games and 44 innings, Carrasco has a 6.34 ERA, 6.66 FIP, 1.545 WHIP and a 66 ERA+. His last good start was against the Phillies where he allowed only one run from six hits and walk over six innings of work. Since then he has allowed 12 runs, 11 earned, from 17 hits and eight walks over 12 2/3 innings, including four homers. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Nick Castellanos 12-52, 3 BB, 16 K
• Bryce Harper 4-12, BB, 2 K
• Trea Turner 6-11, 3 2B
• J.T. Realmuto 2-10, 4 K
• Kyle Schwarber 0-8, BB, 3 K
• Brandon Marsh 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Bryson Stott 1-5, K
• Edmundo Sosa 1-3, HR, K
• Kody Clemens 1-2
• Garrett Stubbs 0-2

The Mets draw an old friend this afternoon as they take on Zack Wheeler. Over 15 starts (88 innings) Wheeler has a 3.48 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 1.114 WHIP and a 122 ERA+. At the start of June Wheeler had a terrible game against the Nationals where he allowed seven runs over 3 2/3 innings. In his three games since he has allowed only two runs, one earned, from 11 hits and four walks over 19 1/3 innings while striking out 19 batters. It is by far his best three game stretch this season. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Brandon Nimmo 9-33, 3 2B, HR, BB, 6 K
• Pete Alonso 9-25, 2 2B, 2 BB, 4 K
• Jeff McNeil 5-26, 2 BB, 6 K
• Francisco Lindor 6-23, 2B, 3B, 5 K
• Starling Marte 6-18, 2B, 3B, BB, 2 K
• Luis Guillorme 3-14, 2B, 2 BB, 2 K
• Tommy Pham 4-8, HR, 4 BB, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 1-9, HR, BB, 3 K
• Mark Canha 2-8
• Omar Narváez 1-5, 2 K
• Brett Baty 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Is Starling Marte coming around? Marte was a huge for the 2022 Mets. You can make the argument that their fall in September had a lot to do with Marte’s injury. On June 8th, Marte went 3-for-5 at the plate. In the 13 games since then, Marte has gone 17-for-56 with two doubles, a homer (which he hit yesterday) and 11 runs scored. His OPS in this stretch is .721, which is 70 points higher than his season OPS of .651. If the Mets were going to go on a little run to save their season, Marte needs to be part of it.
2. Who is available in the bullpen today? The Mets needed Robertson to get a five out save yesterday. Normally that would put Robertson in the not-available category for today, but only needed 13 pitches thanks to the defense turning two double plays. Ottavino, who Robertson bailed out, worked hard tossing 26 pitches. Brooks Raley has now pitched on back to back days. The rest of the bullpen is well rested. My gut says we’ll see Leone and Hartwig today who haven’t pitched since Wednesday.
3. The defensive giveth and taketh. Friday night’s game was a defensive mess for the Mets. Yesterday Guillorme, Lindor and Alonso turned three double plays, bailing out pitchers multiple times. One double play quickly killed a rally in the bottom of the 8th. Another sealed the Mets win.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets spiral continued last night as the offense could only muster three hits, falling to the Phillies 5-1. Defense plagued the Mets, making the night difficult for Kodai Senga as he got tagged for four runs, only two earned. The Mets also traded Eduardo Escobar for prospects in the middle of the game. Now the Mets look to refocus and force a rubber game against the Phillies tomorrow.

Max Scherzer had a tremendous start for the Mets his last time out, allowing one run from four hits while striking out eight over eight innings. The Mets need another start like that today. Over 12 starts and 64 2/3 innings this season, Max has a 4.04 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.160 WHIP and a 103 ERA+. His amazing start last time out came on the heels of two terrible starts that saw him give up 11 runs over nine innings. Before those games, Max had a terrific start against the Phillies, holding them to two runs, one earned, over seven innings. The Phillies have the following career numbers against Scherzer:

• J.T. Realmuto 7-61, 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 18 K
• Bryce Harper 6-22, 2 2B, 3 HR, 6 BB, 9, K
• Nick Castellanos 5-22, 2 2B, BB, 10 K
• Alec Bohm 6-19, 5 K
• Kyle Schwarber 4-14, 2 HR, 4 BB, 5 K
• Josh Harrison 0-12, 5 K
• Bryson Stott 6-10, 2B, K
• Edmundo Sosa 2-11, 6 K
• Brandon Marsh 1-6, 3 K
• Darick Hall 1-3, K
• Kody Clemens 0-3, K
• Trea Turner 1-3, 2 K
• Garrett Stubbs 1-2, K

The Mets bats draw Christopher Sanchez in just his third game of the season. His first start was back on April 22nd where he allowed three runs over 4 1/3 innings. He returned to the Phillies last week and pitched four innings of one hit, shutout baseball. He’s pitched in 10 games and 49 2/3 innings for Lehigh Valley this season with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.450 WHIP. The Mets have the following limited numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 1-4, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-2, BB, K
• Pete Alonso 1-3, HR, K
• Mark Canha 0-2, BB
• Francisco Lindor 1-2
• Jeff McNeill 1-3, 2B, K
• Luis Guillorme 0-1, K
• Omar Narváez 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Brandon Nimmo’s power year? Brandon Nimmo hit his eighth homer of the season last night. In 2018 he hit a career high 17 homers, he came close last year with 16 homers. This is now his 4th season with eight homers, and he’s on track right now to have more homers than he did in 2018. Further, last year he led the league with seven triples. He already has four triples this season, putting him on pace to break his career high mark of eight, also set in 2018. His next triple will make him the sole holder of #7 on the Mets all time leader board.
2. Jeff McNeil’s and Brandon Nimmo’s next double. Jeff McNeil has 129 doubles as a Met. If he hits a double today, he’ll tie Rusty Staub for #19 on the Mets all-time list. Brandon Nimmo is currently tied with Toddy Hundley with 118 (#22).
3. Walks and strikeouts. During the Mets 10-8 loss on Wednesday, they walked an astounding eight times, but also struck out 14 times. Last night the Mets walked only three times and they struck out 10 times. There was only one player, Tommy Pham, during Wednesday’s game that recorded two walks and two strikeouts. That is to say, even though the Mets offense was scored eight runs on Wednesday night, the strikeouts piling up shows that there were players struggling in the lineup. Six players had two strikeouts in that game. Can the Mets keep the strikeouts down today and get the walks back up?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have had a rough month – can they turn it around in Philly?

After taking the first game in Houston, the Mets dropped the next two games in disappointing fashion. Now they start a series against the red-hot Phillies. Despite losing their last two games, the Phillies have won seven of their last ten games and are now two games above .500. It’s worth noting that their expected record is 35-39 and they have a -19 run differential. The Mets have an expected record of 36-38, better than their actual record, with a -15 run differential.

The Mets turn to Kodai Senga today to get the team back on track. Over 13 games and 71 1/3 innings, Senga has a 3.53 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.332 WHIP and a 118 ERA+. In his last start he allowed four runs over 6 2/3 innings. Senga looked good against the Cardinals, racking up eight strikeouts, but the homers crushed him early. His best start of the season was against the Phillies, where he held them to one hit while striking out nine over seven innings of work. The Phillies have the following numbers against Senga:

• Nick Castellanos 0-3, K
• Kyle Schwarber 0-3, 2 K
• Bryson Stott 0-3, K
• Trea Turner 0-3
• Alec Bohm 0-2, K
• Kody Clemens 1-2, K
• Brandon Marsh 0-2, K
• J.T. Realmuto 0-2, K

The Mets bats will get to see an old friend today as they take on Taijuan Walker this evening. Over 15 starts and 77 1/3 innings he has a 4.31 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 1.280 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. Walker is coming off of an excellent start where he allowed only one run, scattering seven hits, over eight innings. In his last three starts he’s allowed only one run over 20 innings while striking out 21 batters. Before this hot streak he took on the Mets who got him for three runs from two hits and homer over four innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Walker:

• Tommy Pham 1-9, BB, K
• Mark Canha 4-7, 2 HR, BB
• Francisco Lindor 1-7, BB, K
• Starling Marte 0-3, BB
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, 2B, BB
• Omar Narváez 0-2, BB
• Pete Alonso 0-1, BB, K
• Francisco Álvarez 0-2, K
• Brett Baty 0-2
• Eduardo Escobar 0-2
• Jeff McNeil 1-2
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Welcome Vinny Nittoli. Nittoli was traded to the Cubs from the Mets for future considerations at the start of June. In five games for Syracuse this season he has a 5.06 ERA over 5 1/3 innings. Nittoli has bounced around several organizations during his time in professional ball. He was drafted by the Mariners in 2014, released in 2017 and then signed with the Diamondbacks in 2018. He then went to the Blue Jays, back to the Mariners, to the Twins, to the Yankees, back to the Blue Jays, was traded to the Phillies and finally to the Cubs before joining the Mets. He’s only pitched three innings in the major leagues, including two scoreless innings last year.
2. Alonso is back! After having a few difficult games since returning from the injured list, Alonso hit his 23rd homer of the season on Wednesday. Alonso continues to lead the National league in homers and is only one homer behind Ohtani for the major league lead. Looking ahead to this series, Alonso has a .459 slugging percentage at Citizens Bank Park and has hit seven homers over 34 games.
3. Is Vogel-back? Daniel Vogelbach went 3-for-5 in Wednesday’s game. It was his second consecutive game where he had multiple hits. Since June 16th, when he hit his first homer in five weeks, Vogelbach has gone 7-for-17 at the plate with a double and two homers and only three strikeouts. Can he keep his 1.268 OPS during this stretch going?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Astros play a rubber game this afternoon full of daytime baseball. After taking the first game in the series, the Mets couldn’t come back last night losing 4-2. Justin Verlander allowed four runs over seven innings and the Mets couldn’t break through the Astros pitching until the 8th inning. Now the Mets will face a tough pitcher for a second straight day in Cristian Javier. Let’s get this series win!

Tylor Megill pitched n 15 games in all of 2022, and he will be pitching in his 15th game in 2023 this afternoon. So far, over 69 innings, Megill has a 4.83 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.609 WHIP and an 87 ERA+. Megill is coming off of a terrific start against the Cardinals where he held them to a solo homer and nothing else really over six innings, while tying his season high for strikeouts at seven. He looks to make back-to-back quality starts for the first time this season. Tonight is also an interesting question in familiarity. Tylor has never faced anyone on the Astros roster in a major league game before, but with the proximity of Astros and Mets spring training camps, he’s probably faced them in Florida.

Cristian Javier had a tremendous 2022 that saw him go from the bullpen to becoming a mainstay in the rotation. He’s off to another great start this year with a 2.90 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 1.041 WHIP and a 145 ERA+ over 80 2/3 innings. After four consecutive starts (starting on May 16th) of allowing exactly one run, he hit a bump on June 9th against Cleveland. Cleveland was able to tag him for four runs over five innings, probably his worst start of the season. He rebounded nicely his last time out against the Nationals, holding them scoreless over six innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Mark Canha 2-12, 3 BB, 7 K
• Tommy Pham 1-5, BB, K
• Starling Marte 0-4, K
• Eduardo Escobar 1-4, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Tommy Pham is having a month. Since June 4th, the first game in June when Tommy registered a plate appearance, Tommy has gone 17-for-53 with six doubles, four homers and 10 runs scored. That’s a .321/.330/.660 slash line. He is currently in a six game hitting streak where he has gone 9-for-24 with two doubles and homer (.375/.400/.583).
2. The Mets bullpen is rested. Thanks to Max Scherzer going eight innings on Monday and Verlander going seven yesterday, the short-handed Mets bullpen has gotten a lot of rest. Grant Hartwig made his major league debut on Monday and Jeff Brigham was the only pitcher used last night. Hopefully this means that bullpen is ready to go this afternoon if needed.
3. A series to forget so far for Brandon Nimmo. Brandon Nimmo has gone 0-for-9 at the plate in Houston with five strikeouts. The whole thing is very un-Nimmo. The only series I can find that really compares in is Atlanta at the end of April he went 1-for-12 with six strikeouts. Can Nimmo get some hits today before this starts to turn into a slump?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win two-in-a-row against the Astros tonight! Yesterday the Mets got a dominating, vintager performance from Max Scherzer who held the Astros to one run over eight innings. The Mets offense went off scoring 11 runs, including five runs in the ninth inning to give the Mets their easiest victory of the season.

Tonight Justin Verlander makes his return to Houston as he faces off against their ace Framber Valdez. Verlander got his World Series ring before last night’s game, will we get a 2022 performance from him tonight?

Justin Verlander has tossed 45 innings this season with a 4.40 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.222 WHIP and a 95 ERA+. You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find a year where Verlander finished with an ERA+ under 100. Last week on Verlander day we wrote about how Verlander has been in a pattern since May 10th where he has a good/great start followed by a terrible start. His last time out he allowed one run over six innings, holding the Yankees to three hits. If the pattern holds, tonight would be a rough night for Justin. Hopefully he can break free tonight of this back and forth dichotomy of outcomes that has defined his season. The Astros have the following career numbers against him:

• Michael Brantley 22-76, 2 2B, 3B, 5 BB, 8 K
• José Abreu 19-49, 3 2B, 6 HR, 5 BB, 10 K
• Jose Altuve 9-16, 2B, 3 BB, K
• Alex Bregman 0-10, 3 K
• Martín Maldonado 0-8, 5 K

The Mets bats have scored a bunch of runs over the last two games, but face a test tonight against Framber Valdez. Over 14 starts (91 innings) Valdez has a 2.27 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.033 WHIP and a 186 ERA+. In his last five starts he has allowed five runs from 22 hits and eight walks over 34 innings. Three of those five runs came in the same start against the Blue Jays in Toronto. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Mark Canha 3-12, 2 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 4-12, 2 2B, 3 K
• Tommy Pham 1-3, HR, 2 BB, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-3, BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 0-3, BB
• Pete Alonso 1-3
• Eduardo Escobar 0-2, BB, K
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, K
• Brandon Nimmo 1-3, K
• Omar Narváez 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Daniel Vogelbach and Francisco Lindor are back! Vogelbach has gone 4-for-12 with two homers in his last four games, doubling his homerun total for the season. In his last two games Lindor has gone 3-for-8 with a double and two homers. The Mets could desperately use a Lindor/Vogelbach hot streak right now.
2. Multi-hit games for everyone! So many Mets players are coming off of a two hit day yesterday. Marte, Lindor, Pham, McNeil, Vogelbach and Baty each had two hits at the plate. For Pham, it continued his impressive hot streak he’s currently on. Everyone else really needed the big day at the plate.
3. The pressure is on for Houston. The Mets have been in free-fall for so long it barely even registers anymore (at least as a fan). The Astros are new to it and have currently lost five games in a row and seven of their last ten. If the Mets can get to Framber early tonight, and if Verlander looks good, they can keep that pressure up on the current World Champs.

Let’s Go Mets!

The New York Mets look to put another frustrating weekend of baseball behind them as they head down to Houston to start a series with the Astros tonight.

On Friday night the Mets cruised to victory over the struggling Cardinals. They had chances on Saturday but couldn’t cash in as the Cardinals beat them 5-3. Yesterday Carlos Carrasco couldn’t get the job done on the mound and despite the Mets scoring seven runs they couldn’t overcome the Cardinals and lost 8-7. A disappointing weekend. Tommy Pham said after the game, all it takes is the Mets to go on a bit of run. Can they start that tonight?

Max Scherzer looks to take a step in the right direction for himself and the team tonight. Over 11 starts and 56 2/3 innings he has a 4.45 ERA, 4.35 FIP, 1.235 WHIP and a 94 ERA+. Scherzer has had only two seasons in his career, 2011 and 2023 where his ERA+ was below 100. In his last two starts he’s allowed 11 runs from 18 hits and no walks. Last time out he lasted only 3 1/3 innings. Before that pair of starts, Scherzer allowed only 4 runs, 3 earned, over 25 innings. Which Scherzer will the Mets get tonight? The Astros have the following career numbers against Scherzer:

• Michael Brantley 17-47, 8 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, K
• José Abreu 6-20, 2B, 5 K
• Jose Altuve 2-14, 4 K
• Martín Maldonado 1-5, HR, BB, 4 K
• Kyle Tucker 1-2, BB, K

Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros tonight. In 75 1/3 innings this season he has a 3.35 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 1.195 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. Hunter is coming off of a great start where he held the Nationals scoreless over seven innings, scattering four hits and three walks. Before that he was in a two start stretch where he allowed eight runs over 10 2/3 innings. This will be Hunter’s first time facing anyone on the Mets roster in an official major league game.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can the Mets offense keep the momentum going? The result stunk yesterday but the Mets offense showed all the different ways they can get on base and score runs. Lindor and Pham both homered. Nimmo got a double. McNeil was on base three times because he got plunked twice and walked once. Canha walked twice. The Mets were able to combine all of this together and get seven runs. At times the offense disappears. Other times it becomes only supported by solo blasts. If the bats can put together games like they did yesterday more routinely, the wins will start to come.
2. The Astros are struggling too. The Astros aren’t struggling like the Mets, but things aren’t great in Houston right now. They have lost four games in a row and were swept by the Reds this weekend. Similar to the Mets, they also scored seven runs yesterday and lost! Both the Mets and the Astros are battling right now to right the ship.
3. There is hope in peripherals. We are looking everywhere for hope right now, and there is some hope in Max Scherzer’s Baseball Savant page. Teams are hitting Scherzer hard, we know this. His Barrel % is in the 25th percentile in the league. That being said, he’s in the 84th and 88th percentile for fastball and curveball spin. He’s in the 84th percentile for walk percentage. He’s in 67th percentile for xERA/xwOBA, and the way he’s been playing I thought that would be a lot worse. He’s still getting hitters to chase (76th percentile).

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win a crucial rubber game this afternoon against a struggling Cardinals squad. The Mets came close yesterday but couldn’t complete the comeback. After a lead-off homer from Brandon Nimmo, the Cardinals were able to hit a couple of homers and take the lead 4-1. Luis Guillorme hit a crucial two-run homer to bring it to 4-3, but the Mets bats fell flat late with the wind blowing into the stadium, knocking down some hard hit balls and the hopes to take the game.

Carlos Carrasco looks to get the Mets on the right path today. Over eight starts and 41 innings this season, Carrasco has a 5.71 ERA, 6.24 FIP, 1.463 WHIP and a 73 ERA+. Carrasco is coming off of a shorter start where he was able to keep the Pirates to only two runs despite allowing six hits and three walks. It was his third start in his last four where he allowed two runs or fewer. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against Carrasco:

• Willson Contreras 2-9, 3 K
• Tommy Edman 2-6, 2B, 2 K
• Paul Goldschmidt 3-6, 2B
• Paul DeJong 0-5, 2 K
• Tyler O’Neill 1-5, 2 K
• Nolan Arenado 2-2, BB
• Dylan Carlson 0-1, BB

Matthew Liberatore gets the start for the Cards this afternoon. He has pitched in five games, four starts this year totaling 21 innings. He has a 5.14 ERA, 4.22 FIP, 1.571 WHIP and an 85 ERA+. That being said he he’s coming off of one his stronger starts against the Giants where he allowed two runs from seven hits and two walks over six innings. There is no one on the Mets roster who has seen Liberatore in a major league game before.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Can Carrasco keep the ball in the park? Homers hurt the Mets in yesterday’s game, and homers have been Carrasco weak point this season. He’s only had one start where he he hasn’t allowed a homer. Even in his good starts, he’s allowed solo homers. The Cardinals are struggling in a lot of different ways, but not with the long ball. They have hit 96 as a team, which is good for sixth in the league.
2. Brandon Nimmo is in the red. If you look up Nimmo’s Savant Page, you’ll see a lot of red. Nimmo is in the 85th percentile for average exit velocity, 83rd for hard hit percentage and 82nd in xwOBA. Nimmo’s signature skill, his eye, comes through in his chase rate sitting in the 92nd percentile.
3. Where is Mark Vientos? Vientos’ playing time has fallen off of a cliff this past week, especially when it’s combined with the Mets two off days during the week. He played on June ninth, sat on the tenth, and then got a start on the 11th. He sat again until the 14th and hasn’t played since.

Let’s Go Mets!

“OK, we won a game yesterday. If we win today, it’s called ‘two in a row’. And if we win again tomorrow, it’s called a ‘winning streak’. It’s has happened before”. – Lou Brown (James Gammon), Major League

The Mets had the type of game last night that has so alluded them in 2023. An easy, cruise control win. The Mets scored bunch early. The starting pitching from Tylor Megill was great. The bullpen closed the door behind them. The game was never in doubt. This was the calling card of the 2022 Mets. Can the Mets do it again today?

Kodai Senga makes his 13th start of the season tonight. Over his first 12 games and 64 2/3 innings, he has a 3.34 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.376 WHIP with a 124 ERA+. Senga had a fairly terrible start back on June 4th. He allowed four runs from four hits and five walks over 2 2/3 innings. He rebounded in his last start allowing only one unearned run over seven innings of work from two hits and four walks. It was his second time in his last three starts that he allowed 0 earned runs. Senga allowed five homers in his first four major league starts. Since then he’s allowed only two homers in seven starts. When he keeps the ball in the park, and his walks down, he’s tremendous.

The Cardinals send out their ageless wonder Adam Wainwright tonight. Over seven starts and 37 1/3 innings he has a 5.79 ERA, 4.43 FIP, 1.714 WHIP and a 75 ERA+. His WHIP shows a lot of his struggles sitting about 500 points higher than his career mark at 1.223 and about 450 points higher than last season. In his first four starts of the season he allowed at least four runs in every start. Since then he’s allowed exactly three runs in each start, but hasn’t finished the sixth inning. He’s allowed at least eight hits in his last four starts. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wainwright:

• Starling Marte 14-51, 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 9 K
• Omar Narváez 9-24, 3 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Eduardo Escobar 4-15, 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
• Tommy Pham 5-14, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB
• Daniel Vogelbach 2-13, HR, BB, 5 K
• Francisco Lindor 2-9, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 1-8, BB, 2 K
• Mark Canha 2-5, 2B, 3 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Who’s ready in the bullpen? The Mets are playing down Drew Smith for ten days and his roster spot. Luckily last night Walker and Leone were able to get the job done, leaving everyone else in the bullpen without at least two calendar days of rest. The Mets need all of theri starters to go deep into games for the next week to keep the pressure off the bullpen. For context, on Tuesday and Wednesday the Mets used five different relivers each night.
2. The DH going forward. Daniel Vogelbach returned to the lineup last night and hit his first homerun since May 7th. There was a lot of criticism before the game (correct criticism in my opinion) that Vogelbach was starting as the DH instead of Álvarez. The Mets are still running into an issue where they are not giving Vientos the playing time he needs to get consistent ABs. Pham is a great example of a player for the Mets who has turned his season around after getting consistent at bats. We’ll be paying attention to how the Mets play the DH spot for the rest of the weekend, especially with the late afternoon start and the early afternoon start tomorrow for the catchers on staff.
3. More Jeff McHits: Jeff McNeil recorded his third two-hit game in his last seven last night. During his last seven games Jeff is 8-for-29 with a double and a homer, hitting .276/.323/.414. This is essentially his season line. Right now Jeff McNeil is feast or famine, collecting hits in bunches or none at all. Does McNeil eat today against Wanwright’s WHIP?

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to win back to back games tonight as they welcome the Cardinals to Citi Field. Wednesday night for the Mets looked like it was going to be more of the same until the Mets tied the game in the seventh and sent it to extra innings. Is this come from behind win the type of game the Mets need to get firing on all cylinders?

The Cardinals are one of the few teams that can rival the Mets in 2023 disappointment. They were expected to compete for the division title and currently sit in last place with a 27-42 record. That being said, their expected win-loss record is 33-36, which is just ever so slightly better than the Mets at 32-36 (Mets real and expected records are the same). Both teams have won two games in their last ten, and both can use a big series to get momentum.

Tylor Megill returns to the mound tonight for the Mets. Over 13 starts (63 innings) he has a 5.14 ERA, 5.18 FIP, 1.698 WHIP and an 81 ERA+. Megill is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Pirates where he allowed nine runs, seven earned from eight hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. It was his third time in his last four starts allowing at least six runs. The Cardinals have the following career numbers against him:

• Tommy Edman 1-2, BB, K
• Nolan Arenado 0-1, BB
• Dylan Carlson 1-2
• Paul Goldschmidt 1-2, 2B

The Mets bats will open the series against Miles Mikolas. In 14 starts (80 2/3 innings) Mikolas has a 4.02 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 1.351 WHIP and a 107 ERA+. His season has been defined by a cold streak followed by a hot streak. In his first three starts he allowed 16 runs. In his next ten starts he allowed 16 runs. That’s a 10.05 ERA in his cold streak and a 2.24 ERA in his hot streak. In his last start he allowed five runs. Is this the start of another cold streak? Is it a blip? The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

• Starling Marte 5-35, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
• Omar Narváez 4-14, 2 2B, 3B, BB, 3 K
• Eduardo Escobar 2-11, BB, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-9, BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 4-8, 2 2B, BB, K
• Daniel Vogelbach 3-9, HR, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 1-6
• Tommy Pham 0-4, 4 K
• Mark Canha 0-1, BB
• Luis Guillorme 1-3, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Does it feel like the Mets are hitting more doubles recently? On Wednesday night Lindor, Pham and Nimmo all hit doubles. On the season the Mets rank 28th in the league in doubles but over their last seven games the Mets are 16th in the league with 11 doubles. This is calendar days and the Mets have had two off-days in the last week.
2. Brandon Nimmo collects hits in pairs now. Brandon Nimmo has had two hits in three of the last four games he’s played. He’s 6-for-15 at the plate with a double and a homer. He’s also been hit three times leading to a .400/.526/.667 slash line. Now in this stretch that has seen him reach base ten times, he’s only scored twice. Hopefully the Mets can capitalize if he gets another pair of hits tonight.
3. Hit by pitches are piling up again. Pete Alonso got seriously hurt by a pitch about a week ago. That pitch knocked out baseball’s homerun leader for a month. For a while the Mets were not collecting hit by pitches at the same rate they had been, but there’s been an uptick recently. The Yankees hit the Mets three times in three games which leaves the Mets tied for third in the league at getting plunked. The Athletics lead with 43 followed by the Angles at 41. Then the Mets and Mariners are tied for 40. This is not the category the Mets want to lead.

Let’s Go Mets!