It’s deGrom day! If the Mets are going to make a run, it may come down to today. The Mets won behind Seth Lugo, doubles and a solid bullpen performance last night, and have now won 3 of their last 4 games. In order to get back in the playoff picture, the Mets are going to need to sustain a run through the weekend which comes down to winning this afternoon. Will the Mets fall back to 5 games below .500? Will they climb to only three?
Jacob deGrom is the person you want on the mound any day. In 7 starts this season he has a 1.76 ERA, 1.93 FIP (league leading), 0.902 WHIP and 242 ERA+. He’s also leading the league in strikeouts per nine innings at 12.7. His last start was an odd one and deGrom was hard on himself after the game, but he allowed 4 runs, only 1 earned, in 6.0 innings in a game the Mets eventually lost 5-3. He has not faced the Phillies this season and last year he only faced the Phillies once – allowing 2 runs from 3 hits in 7.0 innings. The Phillies have the following numbers against Jacob:
Andrew Knapp 2-6, 2B, 3B, BB, 3 K
Bryce Harper 10-34, 2 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 12 K
Rhys Hoskins 3-13, 2B, 4 BB, 4 K
Andrew McCutchen 4-17, BB, 6 K
Neil Walker 4-22, 3 BB, 5 K
Jean Segura 3-15, 3 K
Didi Gregorius 3-15, 3 K
J.T. Realmuto 4-25, 2B, 9 K
Jay Bruce 0-6, 2 K
The Mets bats draw Aaron Nola who is having a resurgent season this year. Over 7 starts and 44.0 innings with a 2.45 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 0.865 WHIP (league leading), and a 192 ERA+. He’s coming off his strongest start of the season where he shutout the Nationals over 8.0 innings with 9 strikeouts, lowering his ERA to 2.45. His start against the Mets this year is the only other time he shut out his opponent. The Mets have the following numbers against Nola:
Coming off one of the more emotionally charged days in the history of the Mets, one reliever had a bad day and the whole game fell apart. The Mets were able to fight back from being down two runs early after one of the more well-rounded and longer Porcello starts of the season. Hughes struggled though, allowing 3 runs in 1.1 innings and the Mets couldn’t recover from that, wiping away their momentum from the last few days.
So the Mets will look to Seth Lugo to help them get back on the right track. On the season Lugo has pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.12 ERA, 2.66 FIP, 0.941 WHIP and a 203 ERA+. As a starter he has allowed 1 run over 6.2 innings across two starts while striking out 12 batters. He has stretched his arm out from 39 pitches in his first start to 60 pitches in his last one. He faced the Phillies earlier this season. In his first game against them, he didn’t do so well and allowed 1 run off 3 hits in 0.1 innings. Next time he shut them out over his inning of work. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:
Neil Walker 2-3, 2B
Jean Segura 4-9, 2B, 3 K
Andrew McCutchen 1-3, BB
Bryce Harper 5-16, 2B, 2 BB, K
Roman Quinn 2-6, 2 K
J.T. Realmuto 4-14, 2B
Didi Gregorius 1-5
Rhys Hoskins 0-11, BB, 8 K
The Mets bats will get a look at Spencer Howard who has will be making his 5th big league start today. Over his first 4 he has pitched 16.2 innings with a 5.40 ERA, 6.50 FIP, 1.860 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. He’s been much better over his last two starts, allowing 3 runs over 8.2 innings, which lowered his ERA from 7.88 to 5.40. His second start was against the Mets where he allowed 4 runs, 3 earned from 7 hits, including two homers in 3.1 innings. Robinson Cano and Dominic Smith were the two Mets that homered against him and the only Mets who recorded an extra base hit against Spencer. Guillorme, Rosario, Gimenez, Ramos and Conforto each recorded a single hit while Nimmo and Alonso went hitless (although Nimmo drew a walk).
The Mets invite the Phillies to Queens for a weekend series as the Mets look to build off two straight wins tonight. Yesterday the Mets wrapped up their Yankees series with a win in extra innings. That means in 6 games against the Yankees this year, the Mets won three times in comeback fashion and lost twice in extra innings. The Mets won this time by scoring 5 runs from the 8th inning through the 10th, including a walk off homer from Pete Alonso. In something that can only be said in 2020 – the Mets beat the Yankees twice this season with walk-off homers but once in Queens and once in the Bronx.
From the pitching perspective the Mets weren’t great yesterday. Gsellman was only able to record 5 outs before leaving, meaning the Mets needed outings from Shreve, Familia, Castro, Wilson and Diaz. Shreve, Familia and Diaz, three of the more reliable pitchers in the pen right now, didn’t allow any runs but each pitched two innings as the Mets continue to have a bullpen usage crunch.
So a lot falls to Rick Porcello today. Primarily, he needs to have a good day for himself. He also needs to have a good day for the Mets bullpen to catch a breather. In 7 starts and 33.0 innings this year he has a 6.00 ERA, 3.10 FIP, 1.576 WHIP and 71 ERA+. He’s coming off a quasi effective start against the Yankees where he allowed 2 runs over 5.0 innings in a game the Mets eventually lost. He faced the Phillies once this year in Philly where he allowed 4 runs off 10 hits and a homer in 6.0 innings. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:
Alec Bohm 2-3, 2B
Rhys Hoskins 4-11, 2B, 2 HR, K
Phil Gosselin 1-2
Jean Segura 5-16, 3B, HR, 5 K
Jay Bruce 2-10, 2B, HR, 2 BB, K
J.T. Realmuto 4-11, 2B, BB, K
Andrew McCutchen 2-11, HR, 2 BB, 4 K
Bryce Harper 3-14, HR, BB, 5 K
Didi Gregorius 7-40, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Neil Walker 1-14, 5 K
The Mets bats draw Jake Arrieta who is trying to find himself this season. In 6 starts and 26.1 innings he has a 6.49 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.557 WHIP and 73 ERA+. He is coming off of his worst start of the season against the Braves where he allowed 7 runs in 1.1 innings, which raised his ERA from a 4.32 to a 6.49. Against the Mets in 4 games and 24.1 innings last year he allowed 17 runs, 15 earned (5.55 ERA) from 33 hits including 4 homers. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
Last night the Mets lost a legend in Tom Seaver. The Franchise was such a presence on the mound that his Hall of Fame vote percentage is the third highest at 98.8%. He defined the 1969 Mets, the transformation from the lovable losers to the team that shocked the world. The Mets will (hopefully) do something today in remembrance.
The news is so jarring that its easy to forget that the Mets played a baseball game yesterday. The Mets finally stopped their 5 game slide behind a strong outing by David Peterson, who took over for Michael Wacha. Michael Conforto had himself a day at the plate going 4-5 with 5 RBI’s (two doubles and a homer).
We’ll see if the Mets bullpen strategy yesterday pays off today. Between both games in Baltimore, the usual bullpen guys only threw 3.0 innings (Wilson, Hughes and newcomer – Miguel Castro). With Robert Gsellman (and later Seth Lugo) still being stretched out, the Mets are going to need more use of their pen in the upcoming days. In 4 games and 8.2 innings this year, Gsellman has a 5.19 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 1.615 WHIP and 86 ERA+. In his four outings he has been steadily increasing his pitches thrown from 13 to 33 to 47 to 57. His last outing, against the Yankees, was his best yet, going 4.0 innings allowing 1 run off a solo shot in a game the Mets ultimately lost. The Yankees have the following numbers against Gsellman:
Luke Voit 1-2, HR
DJ LeMahieu 1-4, 3B
Mike Tauchman 1-2
Brett Gardner 1-7 2B, BB
Gio Urshela 0-1, BB
Gary Sanchez 0-4, BB, 2 K
Aaron Hicks 0-7, BB, 3 K
The Mets will get another look at J.A. Happ who is probably very happy to face the Mets again. In 4 starts and 20.0 innings this season he has a 4.05 ERA, 6.15 FIP, 1.150 WHIP and 105 ERA+. After two terrible starts to the season, he has been great in his last two, pitching 13.0 innings of 1 run ball with 6 hits, 2 walks and 8 K’s. His last start was a 7.1 innings shutout performance against the Mets, in a game the Mets eventually won. The Mets have the following numbers against Happ:
The Mets scored 5 runs, which should be enough to win the ball game, but struggled with pitching between Jurado’s Mets debut and Kilome’s relief outing. The good news: Jurado and Kilome ate up a combined 7 innings so Hughes was the only bullpen regular that had to pitch, giving most of the team the day off. Now the Mets will try to rebound as they are 6 games under .500. This article is being written at 6:00 AM, I’m sure the Mets roster is going to look completely different by game time as they still have to make roster moves for all their “buzzer beater” trade deals.
Michael Wacha tries to get back on the right track tonight. In 4 starts and 17.0 innings he has a 7.41 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.765 WHIP and 58 ERA+. In his first start back against the Yankees he allowed 4 runs in 3.0 innings of 6 hits including a homer, a game the Mets eventually bailed him out of. (It was one of the few bright spots in the last 7 days of Mets baseball). Since his first start of the season, he has allowed 13 runs in 12.0 innings.
John Means is looking to make like J.A. Happ tonight. As a quick refresher, Happ was struggling this season until the start he made before the Mets, which was pretty good, then he started against the Mets and he was excellent. Means is in a similar position. On the season, over 5 starts and 14.2 innings, he has a 8.59 ERA, 7.97 FIP, 1.295 WHIP and 54 ERA+. Homers have hurt him – he’s giving up 3.7 per nine innings, his career numbers are 1.6. In his last start he took some steps forward, allowing 2 runs on 4.0 innings (although both runs were solo homers). Complicating his homer numbers – 4 of his 5 starts have been in hitter friendly Camden Yards. His last start was in Buffalo.
The last several days for the Mets have been interesting: – Saturday: lose a close game against the Yankees that the Mets tied late – Sunday: lose a game in extra innings that they had a 7-2 lead going into the last inning – Sunday: lose a game in extra innings when the home team, playing as the road team, hit a grand slam to start off the 8th – Monday: lose a game they had an early lead in against the Marlins – Monday: inexplicably acquire Todd Frazier, a veteran catcher and Miguel Castro at the trade deadline costing Kevin Smith, a starting pitcher, when the rotation is a giant question mark for next season.
So things have been odd at best.
And now they play the Orioles.
The Mets will be sending Ariel Jurado tonight to pitch in his first game as a Met. Last year as a Ranger he had pitched in 32 games making 18 starts posting a 5.81 ERA, 5.10 FIP, 1.504 WHIP and 89 ERA+ over 122.1 innings. He was less effective as a starter with a 6.68 ERA over 93.0 innings and a WHIP that jumped from 1.159 to 1.613. He faced the Orioles last year and allowed 3 runs over 6.0 innings from 8 hits while striking out 6. All this being said, he had a four good starts in AAA last year with a 3.57 ERA over 22.2 innings and the year before in AA he had a 3.72 ERA over 101.2 innings.
The Orioles send out Asher Wojciechowski tonight who is seeing regular time as a starter for a second consecutive season. This year in 6 starts and 26.1 innings he has a 5.13 ERA, 6.02 FIP, 1.405 WHIP and 90 ERA+. In his last three games he has allowed 9 runs off 16 hits and 4 homers in 12.2 innings, a 6.39 ERA. Last year he made 16 starts and pitched in 17 games, totaling 82.1 innings with a 4.92 ERA, 5.30 FIP, 1.312 WHIP and 96 ERA+. A few Mets have seen him in action before:
The Mets had a pretty amazing double header sweep of the Yankees on Friday. Saturday the Mets lost a close game. Yesterday was another story. The Mets blew a 7-2 lead in the the 7th inning (final) inning of the first game, and then lost in extra innings. Then they lost the second game with the Yankees hitting a grand slam in extra innings. The Mets need a reset.
Hopefully they get that reset today with Jacob deGrom on the mound. Jacob deGrom is doing something incredible – he is making his 4th consecutive start against the same team. On the season he has made 6 starts with 35.0 innings with a 1.80 ERA, 1.68 FIP (league leading), 0.829 WHIP and a 235 ERA+. His last three starts, all against the Marlins, he has pitched 18.0 innings with a 1.50 ERA with a 0.733 WHIP. In his last start he allowed 1 run off 2 hits while striking out 14. The Marlins have the following numbers against Jacob:
Jesus Aguilar 4-12, 2B, HR, 2 K
Jon Berti 6-18, 3 2B, 5 K, 3 SB
Brian Anderson 8-32, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 8 K
Lewin Diaz 1-3
Jorge Alfaro 3-15, HR, BB, 8 K
Garrett Cooper 3-11, BB, 6 K
Jonathan Villar 2-10, 2B, BB, 5 K
Miguel Rojas 7-34, 3 BB, 6 K
Matt Joyce 2-14, 2 BB, 8 K
Lewis Brinson 4-22, 2B, 8 K
Corey Dickerson 2-12, 4 K
Trevor Rogers will make his second big league start against the Mets today! Of course, he made his first big league start against the Mets too. In that game he allowed only 1 hit (Amed Rosario) and walked 5 batters but the Mets didn’t score at all. As a reminder, Rogers is coming off a year in the minors where he made 23 starts from high A to AA ball, tossing 136.1 innings with a 2.90 ERA and a 1.137 WHIP.
Having three double headers in one week for the Mets wouldn’t be a crazy large issue if the Mets had more pitchers who could start. This stretch of double headers came at the same time that the Mets rotation is basically depleted – more than any time I can recall in recent memory. Between injuries, struggle on the field and questionable roster decisions the Mets were forced to stretch out both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo.
This afternoon its Seth Lugo’s turn to continue his journey into a starter. On the season he has pitched in 10 games and made 1 start totaling 13.1 innings with a 2.03 ERA, 2.16 FIP, 0.750 WHIP and 212 ERA+. Five days ago he made his first start where tossed 39 pitches across 3.0 innings while striking out 5, allowing nothing. Lugo pitched two scoreless, hitless innings against the Yankees last year. The Yankees have the following numbers against Lugo:
Luke Voit 1-4, HR, K
DJ LeMahieu 3-6
Gary Sanchez 1-5, K
Aaron Hicks 0-3, 2 BB, 2 K
Jordy Mercer 0-2, K
Gio Urshela 0-1, K
Brett Gardner 0-4, K
Deivi Garcia will make his major league debut for the Yankees today. At 20 years old, he pitched across three levels in the minors last year starting in high A all the way to AAA. In A+ ball he posted a 3.06 ERA over 17.2 innings. Next he made 11 starts, 53.2 innings AA ball with a 3.86 ERA. Finally he pitched in 11 games, 6 starts, in AAA ball for 40.0 innings with a 5.40 ERA. He was 6.2 years younger than the average player in the league at that point. It feels like the Mets have struggled against the deluge of players making their major league debuts against them this year, hopefully they’ll get the better of Garcia today.
The Mets had a double header sweep of the Yankees on Friday and were close to beating the Yankees yesterday. The Yankees got a great start from J.A. Happ and as soon as the Yankees took him out of the game, the Mets tied the game thanks to Wilson Ramos. Eventually the Mets lost 2-1 in a game that just barely slipped away.
The concern for the Mets heading into today’s game – how many arms are available? The Mets had to use a lot more pitchers yesterday than they intended with Steven Matz lasting only one inning after feeling shoulder discomfort. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Rick Porcello, opening the game for the Mets since Seth Lugo is still getting stretched out when he starts the second game.
Rick Porcello is 1-4 over 6 games and 28.0 innings with a 6.43 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.643 WHIP and 66 ERA+. Porcello got off to a good start in August, allowing 3 runs over 13.0 innings while striking out 9 but his last two starts have been lacking. He has allowed 8 runs from 15 hits over 9.0 innings. He faced the Yankees four times last year allowing 20 runs from 27 hits over 15.0 innings. The Yankees have the following numbers against Porcello:
Mike Tauchman 3-4, 2B, HR, K
Luke Voit 6-11, 2 2B, 4 K
Gio Urshela 3-5
Brett Gardner 17-60, 5 2B, 2 HR3 BB, 10 K
Gary Sanchez 3-18, HR, 3 BB, 4 K
Aaron Hicks 5-39, 3 HR, 5 BB, 8 K
Clit Frazier 1-5, 2 K
Mike King will make his second start of the season pitching in his fifth game today. He has pitched 13.2 innings this season, allowing 10 runs leading to a 6.59 ERA, 5.55 FIP, 1.098 WHIP and 66 ERA+. Mike King had an incredibly 2018 season in the minors where he had a 1.79 ERA over 161.1 innings from high A ball to AAA (1.15 ERA over 6 starts). The following year he had arm issues in spring training that kept him off the field for most of the year. He made only 11 appearances in the minors in 2019 with a 5.87 ERA over 46.0 innings.
What a night for the Mets! They came back to win, twice! In the first game of the doubleheader, the Mets were in a 4-0 hole early but thanks to a big 6th inning with homers from Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith and Marisnick the Mets took a 6-4 lead. Rosario was the hero of the night cap, hitting a 2 run, walk-off shot as the away team, in the bottom of the seventh. A sentence that could only be uttered in 2020.
Robert Gsellman makes his 3rd start of the season as he continues to get stretched out into a starter. On the year he has allowed 4 runs from 8 hits and 2 walks in 4.2 innings. In his last start he lasted only 1.2 innings, less than his previous start, but he increased his pitch count from 33 to 47. The Yankees have the following numbers against Gsellman:
Jordy Mercer 2-4, 2B, BB, K
Miguel Andujar 1-2, K
Gio Urshela 0-1, BB
Gary Sanchez 0-4, BB, 2 K
Aaron Hicks 0-5, BB, K
Brett Gardner 0-5, BB, K
The Mets have been struggling with most of their starters this season. The Yankees have their own version of this struggle with J.A. Happ. Happ has pitched 3 games and 12.2 innings this year with a 6.39 ERA, 8.68 FIP, 1.579 WHIP and a 68 ERA+. His last start was his most promising of the season, he allowed only 1 run over 5.2 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Happ: