2017 Mets Projections Meta-Analysis: Michael Conforto

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Michael Conforto:

Michael Conforto
PA AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2016 348 478 68.00 21 68 2 0.238 0.319 0.448
Projections
MLB.com 220 34.00 9 31 2 0.255 0.328 0.441
Steamer 293 37.00 13 43 3 0.256 0.329 0.451
ZiPS 558 77.00 24 80 2 0.251 0.324 0.466
ESPN 49.00 15 51 3 0.259
Baseball Prospectus 324 39.00 13 44 2 0.253 0.329 0.454
Sporting News 510 62.00 23 77 4 0.261 0.332 0.455
NBC Rotoworld 335 49.00 18 58 2 0.265 0.339 0.482
Rotowire 349 50.00 15 52 3 0.261 0.338 0.473
Baseball America 460 60.00 16 58 3 0.241 0.31 0.411
FBG 2017 507 72.00 19 72 3 0.264
Average 441 382 52.9 16.5 56.6 2.7 0.2566 0.328625 0.454125

Well this is tricky. The Mets enter the season with one too many everyday outfielders. Michael Conforto is coming off a difficult year, and thanks to injuries in the Mets outfield, they got Jay Bruce. Now Conforto and Bruce are back. The projection programs are up and down to try to figure out how much play time Conforto will get this year. That being said, his slugging numbers seem constant, so they think he’s going to hit, and he’s projected to hit nearly 20 points better.

I would love to see Conforto play everyday. I just don’t see how it happens right now with the current construction of the team.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Projection Meta-Analysis: Neil Walker

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Neil Walker:

Neil Walker
PA AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2016 458 412 57.00 23 55 3 0.282 0.347 0.476
Projections
MLB.com 489 66.00 22 68 2 0.27 0.334 0.466
Steamer 459 60.00 19 65 3 0.261 0.333 0.44
ZiPS 521 65.00 20 65 3 0.263 0.329 0.442
ESPN 60.00 21 60 3 0.271
Baseball Prospectus 518 59.00 19 66 3 0.255 0.325 0.426
Sporting News 495 68.00 23 72 3 0.273 0.341 0.451
NBC Rotoworld 451 60.00 18 66 2 0.257 0.331 0.43
Rotowire 472 64.00 21 64 3 0.275 0.34 0.462
Baseball America 527 64.00 19 62 3 0.269 0.329 0.425
FBG 2017 516 70.00 24 71 3 0.278
Average 519.5 487 63.6 20.6 65.9 2.8 0.2672 0.33275 0.44275

Neil Walker was on a record setting season for the Mets before injury side lined him. The Mets are taking an interesting risk with him this year. The Mets are paying him a lot for one year, but if he hits any where near where he did last year, the Mets will take it.

The projections do not see him surpassing the numbers or the pace he was on last year, but still, 20+ homers and 66 RBI’s is a lot, especially in the middle infielder.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Meta-Projections: Yoenis Cespedes

We wrapped up all the pitcher projections and now we can move on to the hitters!

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Yoenis Cespedes:

Yoenis Cespedes
PA AB R HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
2016 543 479 72.00 31 86 3 0.28 0.354 0.53
Projections
MLB.com 555 87.00 33 97 4 0.286 0.345 0.533
Steamer 532 73.00 28 84 4 0.263 0.322 0.481
ZiPS 596 83.00 30 95 5 0.266 0.317 0.498
ESPN 87.00 32 98 5 0.275
Baseball Prospectus 602 74.00 28 86 5 0.261 0.317 0.475
Sporting News 560 80.00 30 92 4 0.273 0.33 0.493
NBC Rotoworld 547 88.00 32 95 5 0.271 0.333 0.506
Rotowire 551 85.00 31 95 5 0.279 0.333 0.517
Baseball America 594 79.00 27 88 5 0.274 0.324 0.473
FBG 2017 546 84.00 31 93 5 0.273
Average 599 555 82 30.2 92.3 4.7 0.2721 0.327625 0.497

The Mets season depends on Yoenis Cespedes. He went into the off-season as possibly the best hitter on the market. And it looks like Cespedes is going to have another Cespedes like season with an average of 30+ homers projected and 92+ RBI’s.

His slash lines don’t look to regress too much, and in addition Cespedes has already talked in camp about how he wants win the MVP this year.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 3/14, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projections: Paul Sewald

We made it to the last pitcher we found projections to report! Tomorrow we start hitters.

Paul Sewald
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 (Minors) 65.2 5-3 3.29 21 80 1.203
Projections
ZiPS 59 3.97 20 66 1.22

Paul is an unusual player to include on this list, he’s the only player who is not on the 40 man, and the only player who has only website projecting him, but it’s a good one.

I’ve included him mainly because if there is one pitcher on the 40 man that I think has a strong shot of being called up, it’s Sewald. He put up tremendous numbers in Las Vegas last year and really is a matter of time until he is called up.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projections: Eric Goeddel

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Eric Goeddel:

Eric Goeddel
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 35.2 2-2 4.54 14 36 1.318
Projections
ZiPS 61.1 4.26 27 61 1.34
ESPN 2-2 4.50 36 1.47
Average 61.1 2-2 4.38 27.00 48.50 1.41

His season was sidelined by injuries that weren’t really understood until the end of the season. As such, the projections see Goeddel seeing an increase in playing time with slightly improved ERA numbers and slightly worse WHIP numbers. Goeddel may have to be a lightning in the bottle type case, show a strong outing in a game, to get regular playing time int he Mets pen as Terry sometimes lets pitchers who aren’t the last pitcher he used waste away in the pen.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stat Projections: Jerry Blevins

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Jerry Blevins:

Jerry Blevins
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 42 4-2 2.79 15 52 1.21
Projections
ZiPS 32.1 3.62 12 38 1.207
ESPN 2-3 3.07 41 1.22
Baseball Prospectus 38.1 2-1 3.62 45 1.14
Average 35.1 2-2 3.44 12.00 41.33 1.19

Jerry was a critical signing for the Mets at the end of the off-season and the Mets got him for the price they wanted. Similar to other pitchers we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, Blevins is projected to have an increase in ERA but a decrease in WHIP (although for Blevins it looks to stay the same). I do wonder if these projections are susceptible to the Mets using Jerry differently. He’s supposed to be a lefty specialist, but I can see the Mets mixing him up, especially since his numbers were better against right handed batters last year.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projection: Fernando Salas

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Fernando Salas:

Fernando Salas
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 (NYM) 17.1 0-1 2.08 0 19 0.63
Projections
ZiPS 64 3.80 16 65 1.14
ESPN 3-5 3.84 67 1.25
Baseball Prospectus 62.2 3-1 3.93 65 1.19
NBC Rotoworld 60.2 3-3 3.71 15 61 1.19
Average 62.1333 3-3 3.82 15.50 64.50 1.19

Fernando Salas had a phenomenal end of the season with the Mets last year where he walked no one in 17.1 innings of relief and posted a sparkling 0.63 WHIP. He’s not going to put up those numbers again but the season numbers the projection sources have for him look reasonable. Also helpful, there is strong agreement between the different sources on how much he will pitch and what those results are, making the average line a likely possibility for Salas.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projections: Sean Gilmartin

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Sean Gilmartin:

Sean Gilmartin
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP
2016 17.2 0-1 7.13 7 11 1.585
Projections
ZiPS 106.2 4.39 33 89 1.302
ESPN 1-1 5.14 17 1.43
FBG 2017 107.1 9-7 4.86 31 94 1.43
Average 106.65 5-4 4.80 32.00 66.67 1.39

I’m not sure where Gilmartin fits in with this club. Three of the four sources that did projections for Gilmartin see him as someone who will get about half a season of action as a starter. I guess he fits as a 5th starter if Wheeler, Gsellman and Lugo all don’t work out. His projections are exactly where I would expect him to be. The 17.2 innings last year wasn’t a lot of time to really make a strong statement about his ability. His average line above screams “back of the rotation / spot starter” type pitcher, who is exactly what he is.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projections: Hansel Robles

Today starts a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll start with pitchers who could start this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Noah Syndergaard:

Hansel Robles
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP Saves
2016 77.2 6-4 3.48 36 85 1.35 1
Projections
ZiPS 69.2 3.49 26 80 1.19
ESPN 4-4 3.79 75 1.33
Baseball Prospectus 54 3-2 4.02 57 1.32 10
NBC Rotoworld 72 5-5 3.50 35 76 1.25 1
Rotowire 75 4-4 3.72 32 75 1.307 0
FBG 2017 77.2 6-4 3.48 36 85 1.35 1
Average 69.48 4.4-3.8 3.67 32.25 74.67 1.29 3.00

Important Note: This article was written before the league and team made a decision on Familia.

What I found fascinating in the above chart was Baseball Prospectus, who is convinced that Robles becomes the closer when Familia is out.

Also looking at projections for several seasons now, I felt Robles was a candidate for a pitcher whose projection numbers would be far worse than his previous years, but that doesn’t seem the case here. There is strong agreement for the amount of games Robles will be in, range of ERA and range of WHIPs. The average line seems probable and welcome out of the Mets pen.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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2017 Mets Stats Projections: Addison Reed

We continue a month plus long journey looking at as many stat projections for as many Mets players as it make sense to do so, starting with pitchers, working towards hitters. Specifically, we’ll continue with pitchers who could relieve this year for the Mets.

There are a lot of stat projection publications available on the internet and magazine shelves. Rather than trusting one (although if I had to pick one, it would be Baseball Prospectus), I like to average the projections together. In a perfect world, I would take data from the several years I’ve done this to figure out how to weight the projections in the average, but for now just a straight average will be fine. This tends to round out the higher/lower outliers while still allowing them to have a say in the conversation. Let’s take a look at the average projections for Addison Reed:

Addison Reed
IP Record ERA BB K WHIP Saves
2016 77.2 4-2 1.97 13 91 0.94 1
Projections
MLB.com 74 4-3 2.68 18 80 1 4
Steamer 65 3-3 3.46 19 69 1.15 2
ZiPS 69.1 3.12 17 77 1.11
ESPN 4-4 2.72 84 1.08 9
Baseball Prospectus 54 3-2 4.16 60 1.24 3
Sporting News 68 5 2.12 16 80 1.04 8
NBC Rotoworld 69.1 4-5 3.25 17 72 1.18 12
Rotowire 75 4-4 2.76 17 83 1.093 9
Baseball America 71 3 2.15 14 65 0.92 7
FBG 2017 64 3-4 3.09 15 70 1.13 12
Average 67.6889 3.7-3.6 2.95 16.63 74.00 1.09 7.33

Important Note: This article was written before any league and team decision was made about Familia, which will, of course, affect Reed.

The projections don’t see Reed repeating his stellar season, but they still have him posting a way above average season. What Reed did last year was insane, so it would be surprising to see him repeat it (although Baseball America seems to think that he will). It is shocking to see how much Baseball Prospectus thinks Reed regresses this. My gut feels the average line looks right.

Sources:
MLB.com and Steamer Projections can both be found here.
ZiPS projections can be found here.
ESPN projections can be found here.
Seidler, Jarrett & BP Staff. (2017) Baseball Prospectus 2017. New York, New York:Turner Publishing Company
The Fantasy Baseball Guide (2017)
Sporting News Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Baseball America Fantasy Guide (2017)
Rotowire Fantasy Baseball (2017)
Rotoworld Fansty Baseball (2017)

Notes:
Article Written on 2/26, stats collected 2/19 and may have changed after collection. Not all sources above may have been used in this article specifically but were used in judgment calls for reliability of the data

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