Game Preview: Diamondbacks vs Mets

Tonight is one of those moments where both teams get to exhale and say, “well, at least we are playing the Mets/Diamondbacks”.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are five games below .500 and currently riding a three game losing streak with a -4 run differential. They come to Citi Field tonight as one of the better defensive teams in the league, just the results of games haven’t worked out for them. They have scored the 10th most runs in the league yet they have only a -4 run differential. They sorely need a series against a struggling Mets team.

As long as you were on planet Earth on Wednesday, you know the state of the Mets. They got swept by the Dodgers falling to 11 games below .500. Like four of their last six games, the Mets were tied at one point late in the game and had a meltdown. Wednesday’s meltdown just happened to be spectacular leading to a team meeting and a player getting DFA’d hours after the game. The Mets sorely need a series against an underperforming Diamondbacks team.

Christian Scott looks to right the ship for the Mets this afternoon. Over four starts and 22 2/3 innings, Scott has a 3.97 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.103 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. He’s coming off of strong start against the Giants where he allowed two runs from two hits over six innings. According to Baseball Savant, Scott’s performance so far has been about league average, which is fine. The Mets need average right now. He’s in the 73rd percentile for xERA (3.31) and the 84th for BB% (5.4%), he’s just not getting hitters yet to consistently chase his pitches (26th percentile).

The Mets bats start the series off against the ace of the Diamondbacks rotation, Zac Gallen. Over 10 games and 57 2/3 innings, Gallen has a 3.12 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.127 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. Gallen has a better FIP over his last three starts (2.98) than his season line, but a worse ERA (3.66). He’s struck out 19 batters over his last 19 2/3. The Mets hit Gallen hard last year, tagging him for seven runs, six earned over five innings while the Diamondbacks were making their September run. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 4-14, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
  • Harrison Bader 0-2
  • Brett Baty 2-3, K
  • Francisco Lindor 2-9, 2B, BB, K
  • Starling Marte 0-2, 2 BB, K
  • J.D. Martinez 3-6, HR, K
  • Jeff McNeil 3-16, 2B, 4 K
  • Omar Narváez 0-8, 2 K
  • Tomás Nido 1-3, BB, K
  • DJ Stewart 0-2
  • Tyrone Taylor 1-5, 2B, BB, K
  • Mark Vientos 1-3, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can the Mets have a normal day? I don’t remember the last time the Mets had a normal day, can they have one today? Yesterday started off with Edwin Díaz landing on the IL right before first pitch. Alonso then left the game after getting hit by a pitch, the Mets bullpen blew the game wide open for the Dodgers in 8th inning and then everything else happened. The Mets are in desperate need for a normal day.
  2. Danny Young. It was announced after the game that Danny Young will be returning the Mets for tonight’s game. The Mets bullpen was already taxed from the doubleheader on Tuesday. Wednesday they had to put in extra work and lost two relievers, so the current state is pretty bad. Danny Young pitched three innings over two games earlier this season allowing an unearned run off two hits and three walks while striking out 13. Over 12 games in Syracuse he has a 1.59 ERA. He’s walked 11 batters over 11 1/3 innings but has also struck out 18.
  3. Hitting with runners in scoring position. There are a lot of problems with the Mets right now, and this one has been fairly consistent over the last couple of weeks. The Mets went 1-for-6 with RISP and left 10 batters on base overall in yesterday’s game. This has been true throughout the weekend. There is an incredible amount of pressure on the bullpen to be perfect, because the offense is just not producing runs.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Dodgers vs Mets

Tuesday was a new low point for the Mets. The Mets had the lead most of the afternoon in the first game. In the 8th they made a series of defensive miscues to allow one run. In the 9th they allowed the Dodgers to tie it and then left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth. Then the Mets self-destructed in the 10th. This felt like Saturday’s game all over again. The Mets bats just disappeared after the game as the Dodgers made quick work of the Mets in the second game.

Now the Mets are 10 games below .500 and trying to avoid being swept, again.

David Peterson returns for the Mets this afternoon! Peterson had hip surgery near the start of November and has been working his way back since. In 2023 he pitched in 27 games for the Mets including 21 starts totaling 111 innings with a 5.03 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 1.568 WHIP and an 82 ERA+. Over six rehab starts spread across three levels in 2024, Peterson has a 1.14 ERA over 23 2/3 innings with 35 strikeouts.

Peterson faced the Dodgers twice last season. He had a fairly terrible start against the Dodgers allowing six runs over six innings from seven hits and no walks. Then in relief he allowed one run from two hits over an inning. The Dodgers have the following numbers against Peterson:

  • Austin Barnes 0-1, BB, K
  • Mookie Betters 2-5, 2B, K
  • Freddie Freeman 5-15, 2 HR, BB, 5 K
  • Kiké Hernández 1-3, 2B, K
  • Teoscar Hernández 2-2, HR
  • Jason Heyward 0-3
  • Gavin Lux 0-1, BB
  • Shohei Ohtani 1-4, K
  • Miguel Rojas 6-12, 2 2B, HR, K
  • Chris Taylor 0-5, 3 K
  • Miguel Vargas 0-3

The Mets bats look to end the series with a boom against James Paxton. Over nine games (49 innings) he has a 3.49 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 1.429 WHIP and a 115 ERA+. Paxton is coming off two rough games where he allowed eight runs over 10 2/3 seasons from 12 hits and four homers. Paxton had one start against the Mets last year where he allowed three runs, two earned over six innings while striking out seven batters. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 2-6, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 2 K
  • Brett Baty 0-2
  • Francisco Lindor 3-14, 2B, BB, 5 K
  • Starling Marte 1-2, K
  • J.D. Martinez 10-22, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 K
  • Jeff McNeil 4-7, 2B
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-3, 2 K
  • DJ Stewart 0-1, BB
  • Mark Vientos 0-2

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Mets with good numbers against Paxton. Jeff McNeil is 1-for-13 over his last four games, slashing .077/.200/.154. J.D. Martinez is 3-for-21 over his last five games with a homer and 12 strikeouts (.143/.182/.286). Both have great career numbers against Paxton as seen above. This is a great opportunity for both players to break out of whatever is propelling the slump.
  2. The Mets bullpen is tired. The bullpen got Sunday and Monday off, but needed to put a lot of work in yesterday. Only Sean Reid-Foley and Edwin Díaz  haven’t been used over the last several days, but both pitchers played a role in Saturday’s heart-wrenching loss. Houser is in an interesting position because he pitched four innings on Sunday but threw only 44 pitches.
  3. The Vibes. Things are pretty bad on the Mets right now. After the first game yesterday the Mets looked liked they were sapped of personality and hope in the nightcap. How do they come out in today’s game? Do work at bats? They take wild cuts at swings? The Mets approach will give us a clue on how today’s game is going to go.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Doubleheader Game Preview: Dodgers vs Mets

The Mets escaped a series sweep from the Giants and now welcome the Dodgers to town! Due to thunderstorms rolling through the area yesterday, we now have a doubleheader this afternoon!

The Mets finally got a win on Sunday, snapping their five game losing streak in a fairly unconventional fashion. Sean Manaea was solid for the Mets over five innings and then Houser came in with four of his best innings of relief this year, allowing only one run to score, which changed the score from 2-1 to 3-1 Giants. The Mets then rallied in the bottom of the ninth, finally getting some hits with runners in scoring position, to win the game 4-3. Could this be an inflection point of the season for the Mets?

Tylor Megill makes his second start since returning from the injured list for the Mets. Over two starts this season he has allowed five runs, three earned, over nine innings while striking out 11 batters. He looked solid in his last start, allowing three runs, two earned over five innings racking up seven strikeouts and tossing 86 pitches overall. In his one start against the Dodgers in 2023, he allowed three runs from seven hits and four walks while striking out four batters over five innings. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

  • Austin Barnes 0-2
  • Freddie Freeman 5-11, 3 K
  • Teoscar Hernández 1-5, K
  • Jason Heyward 1-3
  • Shohei Ohtani 0-2
  • Miguel Rojas 1-4, BB, K
  • Will Smith 0-2, K
  • Chris Taylor 1-2, K
  • Miguel Vargas 0-2, BB, K

The Mets bats will start the afternoon off by facing Tyler Glasnow. This season Glasnow has made 11 starts totaling 67 innings with a 3.09 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 0.910 WHIP and a 130 ERA+. He leads the league in strikeouts (87), strikeouts per nine (11.7) and wild pitches (8). He’s looked more human in his last two starts allowing seven runs over 10 innings from 10 hits while striking out 14. One of his best starts of the season was against the Mets in late April where he held the Mets scoreless over eight innings while striking out 10. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 1-9, 7 K
  • Harrison Bader 2-10, 2 K
  • Brett Baty 0-3, K
  • Francisco Lindor 2-12, 5 K
  • Starling Marte 1-7, HR, 4 K
  • J.D. Martinez 4-16, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 6 K
  • Jeff McNeil 3-10, 2B, BB, K
  • Tomás Nido 1-3, K
  • Brandon Nimmo 1-6, 3 BB, K
  • DJ Stewart 1-6, 3 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-2, 2 K

Jose Quintana is on the bump for the nightcap. Over 10 starts, 52 2/3 innings, he has a 5.13 ERA, 4.63 FIP, 1.367 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. Quintana has been solid in his last two starts, allowing five runs from eight hits and no walks over 11 1/3 innings (3.97 ERA, 3.40 FIP) with opponents slashing .200/.238/.300 against him. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

  • Austin Barnes 2-10, 4 BB, K
  • Mookie Betts 7-25, 2 2B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
  • Freddie Freeman 3-13, HR, 3 BB, 3 K
  • Kiké Hernández 4-13, 2B, HR, BB, 2 K
  • Jason Heyward 1-2, 2B, K
  • Gavin Lux 2-7, 2B, K
  • Miguel Rojas 3-10
  • Will Smith 1-6, 2 K
  • Chris Taylor 8-24, 3 2B, 2 BB, 8 K
  • Miguel Vargas 1-2

The Mets bats will get a look at Gavin Stone who has made nine starts this season pitching 50 innings. He has a 3.60 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.300 WHIP and a 112 ERA+. Gavin Stone is coming off of his first rough start since April 20th (when he faced the Mets. After facing the Mets, Stone pitched four games allowing four earned runs (exactly one run per game) over 26 innings (1.38 ERA, 4.32 FIP). In his last start he allowed four runs over six innings from eight hits and a walk.

Against the Mets this season he allowed two runs from four hits and five walks over 3 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 0-2
  • Harrison Bader 0-2
  • Francisco Lindor 1-2, 2B
  • Starling Marte 0-2, K
  • Jeff McNeil 1-1, 2B, BB
  • Omar Narváez 0-2
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-0, 2 BB
  • DJ Stewart 0-0, 2 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can the Mets keep Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts off the basepaths? Ohtani and Betts are third and sixth respectively in OPS this season. Ohtani is currently hitting .336/.403/.621 with a 1.024 OPS and a 188 OPS+. He’s leading the league in all of those stats just listed except for OBP. He’s in the 99th or 100th percentile for six different hitting stats on Baseball Savant. Betts is hitting .335/.431/.542 with a .974 OPS and a 177 OPS+. The Mets have to keep both hitters in check tonight and throughout the series.
  2. The bullpen is rested. From Wednesday through Saturday the Mets bullpen player a role in three straight losses for the Mets. Adrian Houser saved the entire bullpen yesterday pitching four innings allowing only one run (which makes up for his performance on Tuesday where he allowed six runs as a starter). This now becomes even more important with two games today. If one or both starters today do not go deep the bullpen will have to be depleted.
  3. Working walks. The Mets were patient against Gavin Stone the last time they faced him, working five walks over 3 1/3 innings and getting him out of the game quickly. They should try the same gameplan this afternoon, get to the Dodgers bullpen and make them work harder than they have to. The Mets only had two walks as a team in Sunday’s game and we know the Mets as a team are better when they make pitchers work harder and longer in at-bats.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Dodgers vs Mets

The Mets escaped a series sweep from the Giants and now welcome the Dodgers to town!

The Mets finally got a win on Sunday, snapping their five game losing streak in a fairly unconventional fashion. Sean Manaea was solid for the Mets over five innings and then Houser came in with four of his best innings of relief this year, allowing only one run to score, which changed the score from 2-1 to 3-1 Giants. The Mets then rallied in the bottom of the ninth, finally getting some hits with runners in scoring position, to win the game 4-3. Could this be an inflection point of the season for the Mets?

Tylor Megill makes his second start since returning from the injured list for the Mets. Over two starts this season he has allowed five runs, three earned, over nine innings while striking out 11 batters. He looked solid in his last start, allowing three runs, two earned over five innings racking up seven strikeouts and tossing 86 pitches overall. In his one start against the Dodgers in 2023, he allowed three runs from seven hits and four walks while striking out four batters over five innings. The Dodgers have the following career numbers against him:

  • Austin Barnes 0-2
  • Freddie Freeman 5-11, 3 K
  • Teoscar Hernández 1-5, K
  • Jason Heyward 1-3
  • Shohei Ohtani 0-2
  • Miguel Rojas 1-4, BB, K
  • Will Smith 0-2, K
  • Chris Taylor 1-2, K
  • Miguel Vargas 0-2, BB, K

The Mets bats will get a look at Gavin Stone who has made nine starts this season pitching 50 innings. He has a 3.60 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.300 WHIP and a 112 ERA+. Gavin Stone is coming off of his first rough start since April 20th (when he faced the Mets. After facing the Mets, Stone pitched four games allowing four earned runs (exactly one run per game) over 26 innings (1.38 ERA, 4.32 FIP). In his last start he allowed four runs over six innings from eight hits and a walk.

Against the Mets this season he allowed two runs from four hits and five walks over 3 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 0-2
  • Harrison Bader 0-2
  • Francisco Lindor 1-2, 2B
  • Starling Marte 0-2, K
  • Jeff McNeil 1-1, 2B, BB
  • Omar Narváez 0-2
  • Brandon Nimmo 0-0, 2 BB
  • DJ Stewart 0-0, 2 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can the Mets keep Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts off the basepaths? Ohtani and Betts are third and sixth respectively in OPS this season. Ohtani is currently hitting .336/.403/.621 with a 1.024 OPS and a 188 OPS+. He’s leading the league in all of those stats just listed except for OBP. He’s in the 99th or 100th percentile for six different hitting stats on Baseball Savant. Betts is hitting .335/.431/.542 with a .974 OPS and a 177 OPS+. The Mets have to keep both hitters in check tonight and throughout the series.
  2. The bullpen is rested. From Wednesday through Saturday the Mets bullpen player a role in three straight losses for the Mets. Adrian Houser saved the entire bullpen yesterday pitching four innings allowing only one run (which makes up for his performance on Tuesday where he allowed six runs as a starter). Look to see if the bullpen can move past their recent performances this afternoon and keep the lead if the Mets have one.
  3. Working walks. The Mets were patient against Gavin Stone the last time they faced him, working five walks over 3 1/3 innings and getting him out of the game quickly. They should try the same gameplan this afternoon, get to the Dodgers bullpen and make them work harder than they have to. The Mets only had two walks as a team in Sunday’s game and we know the Mets as a team are better when they make pitchers work harder and longer in at-bats.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Giants vs Mets

The Mets are free falling right now. They have now lost five games in a row and are a season worst nine games below .500. The games they have lost in the past week are all games they could have easily won, with the last three losses involving blown leads late in games. This has to be causing increased pressure on the bullpen, which in turn is making results worst right now.

It’s a mess, and the only cure for it is to win ball games. Hopefully Sean Manaea facing his old club this afternoon can put the Mets back in the right direction.

Over nine starts (46 1/3 innings) this season, Manaea has a 3.11 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 1.295 WHIP and a 123 ERA+. Since his terrible start against Kansas City on April 13th, Manaea has made six starts with a 2.56 ERA, 3.41 FIP while opponents are hitting .224/.305/.310 against him. He has gotten results on the field this year despite some of the under-the-hood stats suggesting otherwise (4.25 xERA, .254 xBA). The Giants have the following career numbers against him:

  • Patrick Bailey 1-1, BB
  • Curt Casali 0-6, BB, 2 K
  • Matt Chapman 1-2
  • Thairo Estrada 2-12, K
  • Wilmer Flores 8-23, 2 2B, BB, 4 K
  • Heliot Ramos 0-2, BB
  • Jorge Soler 2-7, HR< BB, K
  • Mike Yastrzemski 2-8, 3B, BB, 3 K

The Mets bats will face Logan Webb who has already made 11 starts this season. Over 65 1/3 innings, Webb has a 3.03 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 1.332 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. Over his last two starts he has allowed two runs over 12 innings while striking out 11. This is a massive improvement over the three starts before that where he allowed 12 runs, 10 earned over 14 2/3 innings. He last faced the Mets in April 2023 where he held the Mets to two runs from five hits and a walk over seven innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 2-14, HR, BB, 5 K
  • Harrison Bader 2-5, 2 BB
  • Brett Baty 0-5, 2 K
  • Francisco Lindor 2-11, 2B, 4 K
  • Starling Marte 7-15, 2B, K
  • J.D. Martinez 1-7, BB, 4 K
  • Jeff McNeil 3-12, 2B, BB, K
  • Omar Narváez 1-8, 2 K
  • Tomás Nido 1-6
  • Brandon Nimmo 1-14, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
  • DJ Stewart 0-3
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-4, BB, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Sean Manaea revenge game? The San Francisco Giants jerked Manaea around last year between the bullpen and the rotation. Players are sometimes more amped up when they face their last team. We’ll know fairly earlier on if Manaea is having a revenge game type outing from the radar gun. His sinker which he throws about 40% of the time sits around 92/93 and has maxed out this season at 96. His 4-seam fastball which he throws about 15% of the time sits around 92 as well and has gone as high as 97 this year. Look to see if his pitches are averaging slightly higher than normal.
  2. A normal day for the bullpen. The bullpen has not been the only culprit over the last several games for the Mets. Once a strength, now a problem, the Mets have lost three games in a row that they had the lead late. Further, the last two games we’ve seen massive explosions, like Reed Garrett allowing five runs in the 8th inning Friday night or yesterday where the Mets allowed five in the 10th and didn’t even give the offense a chance. Let’s have a normal day today, please!
  3. Mets have flashed a lot of power. The Mets have hit 12 homeruns as a team over their last five games. They’ve also lost all five of those games. It’s pretty crazy. The offense is coming together but they are still struggling to hit with runners in scoring position. Friday’s game ended with the bases loaded. Saturday the Mets had a runner on third with one out in the bottom of the ninth but couldn’t bring them in (and then the bullpen exploded).

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Giants vs Mets

If you turned Friday night’s game off after the seventh inning, you were in for a rude awakening this morning. The Mets were looking good early last night. They got a solid start from Christian Scott, the offense scored six runs off of three homers, Edwin Díaz had a solid inning of relief.

Then the wheels came off. The Giants scored five runs in the 8th inning to the take lead. The Mets loaded the bases in the ninth, scored one, but couldn’t score the tying run thanks to a great defensive play by the Giants. The Mets could have easily won most if not all of the games they’ve played in the last week. They haven’t, and now they are a season worst eight games under .500. Can the Mets turn things around today?

Luis Severino has made nine starts totaling 51 2/3 innings this year with a 3.48 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.219 WHIP and a 110 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start in Miami where he allowed five runs from six hits and three walks over 6 2/3 innings. Only one of his starts in May has been good and overall he has a 5.94 ERA, 5.47 FIP this month over 16 2/3 innings. The Giants have the following career numbers against him:

  • Patrick Bailey 0-3
  • Matt Chpaman 2-16, 2 BB, 4 K
  • Thairo Estrada 1-2
  • Wilmer Flores 0-4, 3 K
  • Ryan McKenna 0-2, K
  • Jorge Soler 1-6, 3 K
  • LaMonte Wade Jr. 0-2, K
  • Mike Yastrzemski 1-2, K

The Mets bats will try to keep their home streak alive against Jordan Hicks. Hicks signed with the Giants in the off-season who transitioned him from flamethrowing reliever into a starter and what a move it has turned out to be. Over 10 starts, 53 innings, this season, Hicks has a 2.38 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 1.113 WHIP and a 162 ERA+. He’s coming off of a tart where he allowed only one earned run over five innings. That being said he’s been a bit more hit-able this month allowing 10 runs, eight earned, over four starts from 21 hits.

The Mets faced Hicks in relief in back-to-back games in 2023. Hicks held the Mets to one hit over two innings. The Mets have the following career numbers against Hicks:

  • Pete Alonso 1-3
  • Harrison Bader 0-1
  • Francisco Lindor 0-3, BB, 3 K
  • Starling Marte 2-10, K
  • J.D. Martinez 0-1, K
  • Jeff McNeil 2-4, 2B
  • Omar Narváez 0-1, K
  • Brandon Nimmo 2-6, 2 BB, 2 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-1

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. The Mets did it again! Friday night was the third straight game the Mets have hit three homers. They have lost all three games. Teams that hit three homers in a game have an over 70% chance of winning (according to the WCBS880 booth on Wednesday). What the Mets have done is improbable and also just speaks to the frustration overall surrounding the team right now. Here’s hoping the power surge continues for a fourth straight game but with a different final result for the Mets.
  2. Will the Mets Click? Friday night the bullpen allowed six runs. Wednesday the bullpen allowed three runs. The Mets lost both of those games. Tuesday the bullpen allowed only one run, but Houser allowed six. The Mets lost by a run. Monday the bullpen and starting pitching together allowed only three runs, but the Mets scored only one run. The Mets need a game where all three (starting pitching, hitting, relieving) click at the same time.
  3. Lindor is quietly starting to hit. Lost in the homer happy lineup has been Francisco Lindor’s last three games. He has gone 6-for-15 at the plate, collecting two hits in each game, including three doubles. The problem is he has scored only once, which speaks to the Mets hitting with RISP problems as a whole. He also has four multi-hit games in his last five played.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Giants vs Mets

The Mets day off came at the perfect time for them. The Mets have been free falling for the past few weeks, reaching a season worst seven games below .500 after Wednesday’s game. The Mets haven’t really been blown out recently either. These were all games that the Mets could have won or were winning at some point, and yet they fell short.

While the Mets have been falling, losing eight of their last ten, the Giants have been rising. They are one game below .500 but have won seven of their last ten. Can the Mets stop their roll this weekend?

Christian Scott will make his fourth start of the season tonight for the Mets. He was lights out in his first start, holding the Rays to one run from five hits while striking out six over 6 2/3 innings. He held a tough Atlanta lineup to only three runs while striking out eight batters in his second start, which also was a quality start. Last time out though was a struggle. The Marlins got him for four runs on seven hits over four innings.

The Mets bats will get a look at Kyle Harrison this evening. Over 10 games (55 innings), Harrison has a 3.60 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.273 WHIP and a 108 ERA+. His game log though is interesting. Harrison had a three game stretch from the end of April through the start of May where he allowed one run over 18 innings, lowering his ERA from 5.00 to 3.20. Since then he has allowed three runs over five innings in back-to-back games. He’s only had one rough start this year so generally he’s slightly worse than a quality start or he’s fantastic. The only member of the Mets to see him in a major league is J.D. Martinez who is 1-for4 with a homerun and two strikeouts.

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Improbable power hitters. The Mets are coming off back-to-back games hitting three home runs in each game. During the CBS880 broadcast on Wednesday, the booth discussed how historically if a team hits three homers, they win the game over 70% of the time. So to do that two games in a row and lose both games is improbable. Here’s hoping the power continues but not the game outcome for the Mets.
  2. The most improbable power hitter. Jeff McNeil has homered in back-to-back games. His homerun on Tuesday was his first homer since April 5th. Overall he’s gone 3-for-8 with three runs scored and three total extra-base hits in the last two games. Since May 18th he’s hit .300/.333/.650 over five games. Is McNeil back?
  3. Old Friends. I personally love watching the Giants come to Citi Field. First there is the overall influence of the Giants on the Mets roots. And then there are two players on the Giants roster. Michael Conforto will probably not play this weekend as he’s on the injured list and he just got cleared to take BP a couple of days ago. And then there is Wilmer Flores, the Mets legend. Flores is having a down year, hitting .215/.290/.289 with a 72 OPS+. It is the first time since 2015 that his OPS+ is below 100. If you are going this weekend, I hope you give Wilmer Flores a warm welcome back home.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Guardians

Tuesday night was a weird game for the Mets. They fell behind early then rallied to cut the Guardians lead to one. Guardians scored more, Mets rallied again to cut the lead to one. Guardians scored more, Mets rallied again to cut the lead to one. Then the game was over.

It felt like the Mets had fight but also didn’t have fight. A weird game in midst of a bad few weeks for the Mets. In early April, when the Mets went on a winning streak, they got their swagger back and looked like they were having fun. This team desperately needs a winning streak.

Jose Quintana has pitched 46 2/3 innings over nine starts this season with a 5.21 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.457 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. He’s coming off of his first solid start in May where he held the Phillies to only two runs over 5 1/3 innings. It was also his first start all season where he walked zero batters. Quintana’s statcast numbers so far leave a lot to be desired. He has an xERA of 5.76 (8th percentile) and an xBA of .308 (4th percentile). There are only two members of the Guardians who have seen Quintana in a major league game: Austin Hedges (4-for-8, BB, 2 K) and José Ramírez (9-for-29, 3 2B, BB, 3 K).

Triston McKenzie is having a bounce back season after an injury mired 2023 campaign. Over nine starts, 47 1/3 innings, McKenzie has a 3.23 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.310 WHIP and a 119 ERA+. He does lead the league in walks at 28 (5.3 BB/9). Since April 19th he has pitched 34 1/3 innings with a 2.10 ERA with 16 BB and 35 K’s. Only a few Mets have faced McKenzie before:

  • Harrison Bader 1-2
  • Starling Marte 0-3, K
  • J.D. Martinez 0-3

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Power Burst? The Mets had a burst of power in Tuesday’s game with Vientos, McNeil and Marte all hitting homers. It ultimately wasn’t enough but it did contribute to Tuesday’s weird overall vibe. There were times where it felt like the Mets were just going through the motions, and then other times where they were smashing the ball. Let’s hope that’s momentum going into this afternoon’s game.
  2. Does Lindor build on his solid day at the plate? Lindor went 2-for-5 Tuesday night with an RBI. The number one thing the Mets need right now is for Lindor to get hot. He is the heart and soul of the team. We’ve seen in the past when he gets hot, good things follow for other hitters in the lineup and the Mets overall.
  3. Edwin Díaz. Díaz hasn’t pitched since Saturday, which means he has had three off-days in a row. With the Mets having an off-day tomorrow it feels like no matter what Díaz should get into today’s game. There was a moment Tuesday night where he started to go through the early warm-up process but as the game script changed, he sat back down. If he comes in today, here’s hoping he regains his confidence.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Guardians

The Mets look to bounce back from Monday’s lackluster loss as they take on the Guardians in game two of their three game set. With a 6:10 start time on Monday night, the Guardians wrapped the Mets up by an early 8:30 PM. The Mets pitching was there but the bats evaporated again after being a force the previous two games.

On paper tonight’s matchup could be much of the opposite with Houser (7.44 ERA) taking on Carrasco (5.16 ERA). Could be a long night!

Adrian Houser returns to the Mets rotation after a short stint in the bullpen. Overall this season he has pitched 32 2/3 innings with a 7.44 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 1.837 WHIP and a 52 ERA+. Compared to 2023, Houser is walking a lot more (2.7 to 6.3 BB/9) while striking out a lot less (7.8 to 4.7 K/9). Luckily, he’s keeping the ball in the park more (1.1 to 0.6 HR/9), otherwise his wayward ERA would be way worse. Houser has the following career numbers against the Guardians:

  • Gabriel Arias 0-1, K
  • David Fry 1-1
  • Andrés Giménez 0-2, K
  • Josh Naylor 0-2, K
  • José Ramírez 0-1, 2 BB

The Mets bats will get to face an old friend tonight in Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco came to the Mets with Francisco Lindor and had 5.02 ERA, 4.40 FIP over 49 games across two seasons for the Mets. He now finds himself back in Cleveland, a club he spent 11 seasons with before joining the Mets. This season he has made nine starts totaling 45 1/3 innings with a 5.16 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 1.456 WHIP and a 74 ERA+. He’s also leading the league in wild pitches at four. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Harrison Bader 0-2
  • J.D. Martinez 10-27, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 4 K
  • Omar Narváez 4-15, 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 0-4, K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Pete Alonso has been heating up for two weeks now. On May 6th Pete Alonso came into a game as a substitution and went 0-for-1 at the plate dropping his line for the season to .205/.293/.417. Since then he has played in 12 games going 16-for-51 at the plate with six doubles and two homers, hitting .314/.352/.549 over that stretch, thus raising his season line to .235/.309/.454.
  2. Mets pitchers walk a lot, but they also strikeout a lot. Mets pitchers lead the league in walks allowed out 207. You know this. The whole world knows this. The next closest team is the Marlins with 191. The Mets pitchers though are also 7th in strikeouts at 420, just one strikeout behind the Dodgers (421) and a few behind the Yankees (424). When this team starts firing on all cylinders, they have the potential to make a Wild Card run.
  3. Mets batters struck out too much last night. Here’s something that surprised me, Mets batters are 25th for strikeouts (with #1 striking out the most). Mets batters have struck out 366 times this year (Seattle leads the league with 486). It feels like the Mets strikeout numbers should be higher because of games like Monday night where everyone (literally every starter except Nido) strikes out. The Mets had 11K’s last night with Brett Baty’s 0-for-4, three punch-out night leading the way. If the Mets strikeout numbers dip tonight, they’re probably having a better night.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Guardians

The Mets escaped Miami Sunday without being swept and now have to face the first place team in the AL Central – the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have a 1.5 game lead and are on a three game winning streak with a 30-17 record. Their +59 run differential is the second best in the American League, trailing only the Yankees.

Things for the Mets have been a bit rocky with the Mets bullpen falling apart multiple times over the last week. Sunday though was good reset for the team with solid hitting and pitching. Let’s hope the Mets can ride that momentum to Ohio.

Tylor Megill returns from the injured list tonight. He made one start this season where he allowed two runs, only one earned over four innings from three hits and three walks while striking out four. He’s looked good across his rehab starts, allowing only one run from nine hits over 14 innings. In his last rehab start he threw 74 pitches, so hopefully the Mets can get the same if not more tonight.

Tylor Megill made 25 starts for the Mets in 2023 over 126 1/3 innings with a 4.70 ERA, 4.96 FIP, 1.575 WHIP and an 88 ERA+. The only Guardian who has faced him in a major league game is Austin Hedges (1-for-2, 2B).

Ben Lively is making his seventh start of the season today. Over his first six starts (32 1/3 innings) he has a 3.06 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.268 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. This a fairly dramatic improvement from his 2023 campaign where he threw 88 2/3 innings over 19 games with a 5.38 ERA, 5.35 FIP, 1.365 WHIP and an 86 ERA+. Lively has been a bit more hit-able in his last two starts allowing six runs from 13 hits over 10 2/3 innings.

Lively’s first game of 2023 was against the Mets where he pitched three scoreless innings of relief holding the Mets to four runs. The Mets have the following career numbers against Ben Lively:

  • Pete Alonso 0-1
  • Brett Bay 0-1
  • Francisco Lindor 0-2, BB
  • Starling Marte 2-5
  • Jeff McNeil 0-1
  • Brandon Nimmo 1-8, BB, 2 K
  • Tyrone Taylor 1-3, HR

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. The return of the American Spork. The talk of spring training was Tylor Megill’s American Spork. It’s a splitter pitch that he developed with Kodai Senga throughout the season, that he used a handful of times in his last start in 2023 and then throughout spring training. How many times will he throw it tonight? Will it be effective?
  2. Anymore surprise illnesses? J.D. Martinez couldn’t start Sunday’s game due to flu-like symptoms. This has been happening to the Mets for the better part of two weeks now. Hopefully whatever is spreading around the Mets clubhouse stops soon.
  3. Old Friends. Andrés Giménez is thriving in Cleveland. Over 44 games this season he is hitting .277/.377/.387 with a 110 OPS+, his third time in the last five seasons that his OPS+ is over 100. Carlos Carrasco is back with Cleveland and the Mets will see him tomorrow.

Let’s Go Mets!

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