The Mets improbable playoff push continues tonight as the Mets find themselves only 1.5 games out. Yesterday the Mets scored 3 runs in the first inning only to immediately give the lead back. At that point the game felt like it was off the rails. The Mets would tie the game in the 6th and then take the lead / break the game open in the ninth. They held on in the bottom of the ninth and here we are.
In a twist for the Mets this season – Steven Matz is back in the rotation! The contributions of Matz – Wacha – Porcello have not been great by any definition of the word great but I’d rather lose with Matz than either Wacha or Porcello. On the season Matz has pitched in 6 games and 24.0 innings with an 8.63 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 6.73 FIP and 50 ERA+. His first start of the season was against the Braves and it was by far his best start as he allowed 1 run from 2 hits over 6.0 innings in a game the Mets eventually lost 5-3. The Braves have the following numbers against Matz:
Ronald Acuna Jr 3-15, 3B, BB, 4 K
Ozzie Albies 3-21, 2B, 4 K
Adam Duvall 4-9, 2B, 3B, HR, BB, 3 K
Tyler Flowers 2-17, 2B, 3 BB, 6 K
Freddie Freeman 8-31, 2 2B, HR, 3 BB, 5 K
Adeiny Hechavarria 2-11
Ender Inciarte 3-9, 2B, BB, K
Nick Markakis 3-20, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Marcell Ozuna 5-20, 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Dansby Swanson 3-14, 2B, BB, 4 K
Max Fried has been having a terrific season with the Braves. In 9 starts and 50.0 innings he has a 1.98 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 1.060 WHIP and a 244 ERA+. THis is in large part due to homers – he hasn’t allowed any. In previous seasons he had a HR/9 of 1.0, 0.8 and 1.1. Now its 0.0. That being said, he’s been more human the last two outings, allowing 5 runs over 10.0 innings from 10 hits against the Red Sox and Nationals. He started his season off against the Mets allowing 2 runs over 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
For a good chunk of last night’s game – hope felt distant. The Mets were down early, deGrom left the game early with a hamstring issue, Wheeler was having a good night.
But the Mets fought back and held on to win! If you haven’t looked at Edwin Diaz’s Baseball Reference page you should go look. He dropped his ERA last night to 1.80 and in 20.0 innings of work he has struck out 42 batters. His FIP is 2.10, WHIP 1.250 and ERA+ at 242. The Mets needed him last night to be the closer and he delivered.
So the Mets are back in the race – but – every game is basically a must win. They are 2.5 games out of the wild cart and 4 games out of the automatic playoff berth in the division that the Phillies are also fighting for.
The Mets will look to gain ground tonight behind Seth Lugo who has made 4 starts now and on the season has pitched 27.1 innings with a 2.63 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 1.098 WHIP and 165 ERA+. His last start was his first average start of the season, allowing 3 runs over 5.1 innings to the Blue Jays, in a game the Mets eventually lost 3-2. He did toss 91 pitches in that game so he is fully stretched out for the final run of the season. His start before that was against the Phillies where he allowed 1 run over 5.0 innings. The Phillies have the following numbers against Seth Lugo:
Jean Segura 5-11, 2B, 4 K
Alec Bohm 1-2, K
Scott Kingery 3-9, BB, 3 K
Bryce Harper 5-18, 2B, 3 BB, K
J.T. Realmuto 5-16, 2B, K
Roman Quinn 2-6, 2 K
Andrew McCutchen 1-6, BB, 2 K
The Mets bats draw Aaron Nola who is crushing it in this year. In 9 starts and 56.1 innings, he has a 2.40 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 0.888 WHIP and 193 ERA+. He is coming off a a 7-inning complete game shutout of the Marlins where he allowed 3 hits and struck out 10 (a 2020 special) which was a nice rebound from his previous start against the Mets. The Mets in that start scored 6 runs, 3 earned, from 8 hits in 5.1 innings (and also struck out 10 times). Earlier in the season, Nola shut the Mets out for 7.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Aaron:
Time is just about up for the New York Mets. If they are going to make a playoff run, tonight is a must win game. Last night, things were going fine through the first three innings of the game and then Porcello allowed 2 runs in back to back innings. The Mets just couldn’t recover from that and despite racking up 11 hits, the only run they scored came on a solo homer from Brandon Nimmo. Not a good night for the Amazin’s.
But it’s Jacob deGrom day! Jacob has pitched 54.0 innings over 9 starts this year with a 1.67 ERA (league leading), 1.96 FIP, 0.870 WHIP, and a 259 ERA+. He also has a 13.2 K/9. In his last five starts he has allowed 4 earned runs over 32.0 innings, a 1.13 ERA while opponents have batted .157/.211/.252/.464 against him. This includes a start against the Phillies where he allowed 1 run over 7.0 innings from 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 12. The Phillies have the following numbers against Jacob:
Andrew Knapp 3-8, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Bryce Harper 11-36, 2 2B, 2 HR, 8 BB, 12 K
Scott Kingery 1-8, HR, BB, 3 K
Andrew McCutchen 4-20, BB, 7 K
J.T. Realmuto 4-25, 2B, 9 K
Jean Segura 3-18, 5 K
Didi Gregorius 3-18, 4 K
Alec Bohm 0-3, 3 K
The Mets get to face Zack Wheeler. Again. In 8 starts this season and 51.0 innings of work, Wheeler has a 2.47 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 1.098 WHIP and a 188 ERA+. The first time he faced the Mets, the Mets scored 2 runs off 6 hits in 7.0 innings. His last start was against the Mets and the hit him for 3 runs from 8 hits over 6.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Wheeler:
The big news for the Mets is this year came yesterday – with Steve Cohen finalizing his purchase of the Mets. With all the dreaming of the players the Mets could be in soon, or trying to figure out when the deal will be approved, it’s easy to forget the Mets have a game tonight. A game that follows a disappointing weekend in fake Buffalo.
If the Mets are going to make a playoff run, it’s now or never. The Mets start their last slate of the game of the season tonight against Philly in Philly, pretty much needing a sweep to get back into contention.
For the Mets, the game falls to Rick Porcello tonight, who will make his 10th start of the season. In 43.0 innings he has a 6.07 ERA, 2.91 FIP, 1.558 WHIP and a 71 ERA+. He’s coming off a rough start against the Orioles where he allowed 5 runs from 10 hits over 4.0 innings, raising his ERA from 5.54 to 6.07. He’s had two starts against the Phillies this year. The first was terrible – he allowed 4 runs over 6.0 innings from 10 hits in Philly. The next was fine – he allowed 2 runs off 3 hits in 6.0 innings in Queens – but the Mets lost that game too. The Phillies have the following numbers against Porcello:
Rhys Hoskins 5-14, 2B, 2 HR, 2 K
Alec Bohm 2-5, 2B
Jean Segura 5-18, 3B, HR, BB, 6 K
Phil Gosselin 1-3, BB, K
Andrew McCutchen 3-14, HR, 2 BB, 5 K
Bryce Harper 3-14, HR, BB, 5 K
J.T. Realmuto 4-14, 2B, BB, K
The Mets bats will look to find the 18-1 winning version of themselves against Jake Arrieta who is 3-4 over 8 games and 39.0 innings this year posting a 5.54 ERA, 4.59 FIP, 1.487 WHIP and 84 ERA+. He’s coming off of an alright start against the Marlins where he allowed 3 runs over 5.2 innings from 5 hits. One of his best starts of the year was the start before against the Mets where he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings from 7 hits, a walk and 7 strikeouts. The Mets have the following numbers against Jake:
Sometimes you beat a team 18-1 and then you lose the next game 3-2. It’s not ideal, but it happens. And then you remember that every game is super important right now if the Mets want a shot at making the playoff’s.
That’s where the Mets are right now. Losing last night didn’t help their case at all. The Mets still need to be in the mindset of winning every night, which they’ll try do this afternoon in Buffalo. Also the Jets are playing Buffalo too. 2020 is weird.
David Peterson will pitch in his 8th game tonight. So far in 31.2 innings he has a 4.26 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.358 WHIP and 102 ERA+. He’s coming off of hsi worst start of the season, where he allowed 5 runs over 2.0 innings against the Phillies, in a game the Mets eventually lost 9-8 (this was the come back game but then the Phillies just squeezed ahead at the end). He has never faced the Jays before but thanks to some deadline deals he has faced one player – Jonathan Villar – who is 0-3 against Peterson.
The Mets draw one of the big off-season acquisitions for the Blue Jays – Hyun Jin Ryu. Ryu has pitched 48.0 innings over 9 starts with a 3.19 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.146 WHIP, 143 ERA+. He was the second best pitcher in the National League last year behind Jacob deGrom and his numbers were quite good. In 182.2 innings Ryu had a 2.32 ERA (league leading), 3.10 FIP, 1.007 WHIP, and a 179 ERA+ (league leading). An interesting development for him this season, his BB/9 has jumped from a league leading 1.2 to 2.6. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
The Mets made up for years of not providing deGrom with run support last night as they trounced the Blue Jays 18-1. It was the type of night that ended up being good for everyone’s stats. Conforto had his ninth homer of the season, Dominic Smith hit a grand slam, Ramos went 3-5 with two doubles and a homer, the Mets in total had 19 hits. Jacob lowered his ERA to 1.67. Ramirez got three shutout innings of relief in and gave the rest of the bullpen the night off. Just a good night for the Mets.
Now the Mets are only 3 games below .500 as they continue to push for a late post-season berth. It’s still an uphill battle as the Mets are 2.5 games behind the Phillies for the second NL East berth and 2 games out of the wild card.
Seth Lugo will look to keep the momentum going today. In 12 games, 3 starts, and 22.0 innings this year he has a 2.05 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 1.000 WHIP and 213 ERA+. As a starter he has pitched 11.2 innings with a 1.54 ERA. During that time opponents have hit .190/.261/.333/.594 against him. In his last outing, he reached 81 pitches and 5.0 innings as he continues to stretch out. Several members of the Blue Jays have faced him before:
Travis Shaw 1-4, HR, K
Randal Grichuk 1-4, 2B, K
Joe Panik 2-7, BB
Jonathan Villar 0-3, K
Derek Fisher 0-2, 2 K
The Mets draw Robbie Ray, long time pitcher of the Diamondbacks who was traded to the Blue Jays at the deadline. On the season, Robbie has pitched in 9 games and made 8 starts, totaling 38.1 innings with a 7.51 ERA, 7.36 FIP, 1.983 WHIP and a 59 ERA+. As a Blue Jay – his time has been mixed. In debut was good, allowing 2 runs, 1 earned over 3.1 innings. Then he allowed 4 runs over 4.0 innings his next time out. The Mets have the following numbers against Ray:
The Mets travel to Toronto Buffalo tonight as they take on the Buffalo Toronto Blue Jays! Just as a quick recap – Canada has taken the global pandemic much more seriously than the United States and it logistically it was going to be impossible to have the Blue Jays play in Toronto. The Blue Jays went through several different plans of splitting time time at other major league stadiums and ultimately had to settle with playing their games at their AAA site in Buffalo – which seemed like the best plan anyway compared to the Blue Jays going to their Spring Training site or any other city. But I digress.
The Mets are coming off an improbable comeback win against the Orioles. After being down early (and down often), the Mets slugged their way back into the game and played some of their best defense in recent memory. Now the Mets are 4 games under .500 in a rapidly concluding season. Can they pull this off?
Jacob deGrom will take the mound tonight. Over 8 starts and 48.0 innings he has a 1.69 ERA (league leading), 2.03 FIP, 0.875 WHIP, 256 ERA+ and a 13.1 K/9 rate (league leading). In his last four starts he has pitched 26.0 innings with a 1.04 ERA and opponents have hit .160/.210/.266/.476 against him. The Blue Jays have the following numbers against Jacob:
Randal Grichuk 3-8, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 3 K
Travis Shaw 3-8, 2B, 3 BB, 3 K
Joe Panik 3-19, 2B, 3 BB, 5 K
Jonathan Villar 2-12, 2B, BB, 6 K
Caleb Joseph 0-3, 2 K
The Mets bats will try to keep their momentum against Chase Anderson who is in his first season with the Jays after four years with the Brewers. This year in 23.2 innings and 6 starts he has a 4.94 ERA, 4.91 FIP, 1.437 WHIP and 92 ERA+. He started against the Mets last April allowing 2 runs and 5 hits over 4.2 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
After losing a heart breaker on Sunday, the Mets followed up with losing a laugher of a game last night. Wacha had a terrible night and the Mets ended up losing 11-2. It is worth noting that in the last two game set with the Orioles, the Mets lost the first game before using the second game to jump start a mini run. Here’s hoping the same thing happens tonight.
The Mets will be sending out Rick Porcello who has made 8 starts and pitched 39.0 innings with a 5.54 ERA, 2.97 FIP, 1.462 WHIP and 77 ERA+. He’s coming off of one of his better starts of the season, allowing 2 runs over 6.0 innings against the Phillies. It was also his first start where he tossed 100 pitches this season. Rick struggled against the Orioles last year, allowing 10 runs from 21 hits over 15.0 innings. The Orioles have the following numbers against him:
Cedric Mullins 0-0, BB
Chance Sisco 3-8, 2B, 4 K
Renato Nunez 2-10, HR, BB, 3 K
Chris Davis 13-56, 2B, 4 HR, 2 BB, 16 K
Rio Ruiz 2-7, BB, K
Jose Iglesias 1-5, 2B
Pedro Severino 1-5, K
DJ Stewart 0-2
Jorge Lopez is slated to start for the Orioles tonight. He’s pitched in 5 games and has made two starts this year, totaling to 18.2 innings with a 4.82 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.179 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. His last two outings have been as a starter, he’s allowed 6 runs in 9.2 innings. The Mets have limited chances against Lopez with Conforto and Rosario each going 1-1 against him and Nimmo picking up a walk.
If the Mets miss the playoffs by one game – games like the one yesterday are going to hurt. The Mets were down 6-0 and some how managed to score 7 unanswered runs late in the game. The Phillies were able to scratch one back and then scored two in the 10th to win the ball game.
If the Mets are going to make a run, they need to let yesterday roll off their backs as the Orioles come to town to take on Michael Wacha, who struggled in his last start against the Orioles. Wacha pitched 3.0 innings, allowing 2 runs from 4 hits. The Mets eventually won the game thanks to a David Peterson relief outing and an offense that found themselves. In 5 starts this year, he has posted a 7.20 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 1.750 WHIP and 60 ERA+ over 20.0 innings. The Orioles have the following numbers against Wacha:
Pedro Severino 1-2, 3B
Pat Valaika 1-1
Andrew Velazquez 0-0, BB
Ryan Mountcastle 1-2
Jose Iglesias 3-9, K
Renato Nunez 0-2, K
The Mets bats draw John Means who is in the midst of a rough year. Over 6 starts and 20.0 innings he has an 8.10 ERA, 8.05 FIP, 1.400 WHIP and 57 ERA+. He’s giving up 3.6 homers per nine innings. His last start was against the Mets and it was both a good news / bad news start. On the bad news side, he allowed 4 runs from 8 hits, including two homers. On the good news side, he pitched 5.1 innings, beating his longest mark of 4.2 innings from August 4th. The Mets have the following numbers against him:
The Mets put themselves in the position they needed to be in today and now they have one more step – beat Zack Wheeler in the midst of a career year and take three of the four games in the series. The Mets, off back to back wins and four wins of their last five now find themselves only 1.5 games behind the Phillies for the second automatic playoff berth in the division.
The Mets are also coming of a crucial, and interesting, game yesterday. By defeating the Phillies 14-1, the Mets have erased their run differential, putting it at +1 on the season, giving them an expected win loss record of 21-20. The first place Braves are the only other team in the division with a positive run differential.
David Peterson gets the start today for the Mets, his last outing being relief for Michael Wacha. On the season he has pitched 29.2 innings with a 3.03 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.213 WHIP and 141 ERA+. In his last outing he pitched 4.0 scoreless innings, holding the Orioles to 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 1 (in a hitters ballpark like Camden Yards, against a team that can hit). It was a good bounce back from his start against the Yankees where he allowed 3 runs over 4.0 innings. This will be David’s first career start against the Phillies.
The Mets draw Zack Wheeler today who is off to a career year. In 7 starts and 45.0 innings, Wheeler has a 2.20 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 1.067 WHIP and 214 ERA+. For comparison, his career numbers are: 3.68 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.282 WHIP and 104 ERA+. Wheeler is coming off of a 6.2 inning shutout performance against the Nationals and has steadily decreased his ERA each start from August 11th, where it hit a season high of 2.89. This includes a start against the Mets where he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings in Philly. The Mets have the following numbers against him: