2015 Projections: Jon Niese

Jon Niese is the veteran of the starting rotation in the sense that he’s been with the Mets the longest (Colon is really the veteran). The sinker pitcher was technically on the trading block over the last couple of off-seasons, but Blue Jays picked Dickey, and the Mets couldn’t move Gee this past season, let alone Niese. Anyway, this season, there is zero pressure on Niese to be the ace of the staff between Harvey, deGrom coming off of a rookie of the year season, Wheeler’s second full season and the eventual debut of Syndergaard. Here is Niese’s 2014 stat lines:

2014 Stats: 9-11, 30 G, 187.2 IP, 138 K, 45 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.40 ERA

And here’s what the computers think 2015 will bring:

PECOTA (BP): 8-10, 26 G, 155 IP, 128 K, 40 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-11, 171.0 IP, 139 K, 43 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 3.89 ERA
MLB.com: 10-12, 183.0 IP, 132 K, 48 BB, 1.29 WHIP, 3.69 ERA
ZiPS: 28 G, 171.2 IP, 132 K, 46 BB, 3.77 ERA
Steamer: 9-11, 29 G, 173.0 IP, 125 K, 47 BB, 4.07 ERA
ESPN: 11-9, 140 K, 1.23 WHIP, 3.72 ERA

Average: 9.6-10.6, 27.7 G, 170.2 IP, 132.7 K, 44.8 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 3.83 ERA

It looks like the computers are projecting a slight regression in ERA and an improvement in WHIP. After reading BP’s comments, I wonder if this is due how computers look at how defense behind Niese is going to work, if they are worried about Tejada, Murphy and Duda handling the groundballs that Niese will produce.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Cleveland

Two former Mets are trying to make a home in Cleveland: Scott Atchison and Bruce Chen.

Scott Atchison pitched for the Mets at age 37 in 2013 where he recorded 45.1 innings of fairly solid relief. The following seasin he signed on with the Indians where he had an excellent year pitching in 70 games, logging 72 innings with a 2.75 ERA and a 6-0 record and a pair of saves. It was his best season in relief since 2012 with the Red Sox where he logged 51.1 innings with a 1.58 ERA. Glad he is doing well!

Brue Chen just signed a deal with the Indians recently, adding another team to the list for his career. In 1993 he signed with the Braves. 2000 he was traded to the Phillies. In 2001 he was traded to Mets. In 2002 he was traded to the Expos. Later that same year he was traded to the Reds before being released and signed by the Astros in 2003. He was then selected off waivers by the Red Sox and at the end of the 2003 season he was signed by the Blue Jays. In 2004 he was traded the Orioles where he actually stayed put for a few years. In 2007 he signed with the Rangers, in 2009 he signed with the Royals where he stayed until 2014. And that brings us today!

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Jenrry Mejia

Lets take a trip back in time exactly one year ago. At this time last year, Mejia was fighting for the last spot in the rotation, which he eventually got. After a trip to the minors timed with the Mets bullpen going through three closers due to injury and other reasons (Parnell, Valverde, Farnsworth), the Mets tried Mejia, and it was successful. Now Mejia will be with two other pitchers fighting for the closer spot (Parnell, Familia) and all three are capable. Let’s take a look at the stats behind the end of game stomp:

2014 Stats: 6-6, 28 G, 63 IP, 93.2 IP, 98 K, 41 BB, 1.48 WHIP, 3.65 ERA

What do the computers think he can do in 2015?

PECOTA (BP): 4-4, 8 SV, 32 G, 79.1 IP, 66 K, 28 BB, 1.27 WHIP, 3.74 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 3-3, 25 SV, 60.0 IP, 51 K, 21 BB, 3.45 ERA
MLB.com: 3-4, 18 SV, 69 IP, 70 K, 31 BB, 3.78 ERA
ZiPS: 43 G, 78.1 IP, 81 K, 30 BB, 3.68 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 22 SV, 65 G, 65 IP, 65, K, 22 B, 3.38 ERA
ESPN: 4-4, 21 SV, 77 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.24 ERA

Average: 3.4-3.6, 18.8 SV, 46.7 G, 70.1 IP, 68.3 K, 26.4 BB, 1.30 WHIP, 3.55

On average, the computers see an improvement for Mejia this season, however some other stats like innings per games, games pitches, saves, etc are a little wonky because of how computers project. Since Mejia has gone between the bullpen and the rotation so many times, and the Mets don’t have a clear cut closer, they have him pitching some starts or closing half the season, etc. But you have to be happy with his average numbers vs last year, especially a drop in WHIP, which was his killer last season.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in St. Louis

The Cardinals only have one former Mets in their system in Miguel Socolovich.

Miguel was originally signed by the Red Sox in 2004 and was traded almost exactly 4 years later to the Chicago White Sox for former Met David Aaardsma. In 2011 he signed with the Orioles and was later selected off waivers by the Cubs before signing with the Mets in 2013. This past November he signed with the Cardinals. The right hander has had limited play time in majors back in 2012 where he made 6 appearances with the Orioles and then 6 with the Cubs. He never factored too much into the Mets plan.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Matt Harvey

You might have heard about Matt Harvey. Got off to a great start in 2013, derailed by a shoulder injury, coming back this year, etc. Anyway, a lot of hopes for this season rely on how much Matt Harvey can be like Matt Harvey. Lets remind ourselves of his last major league stat line:

2013 Stats: 9-5, 26 G, 178.1 IP, 191 K, 31 BB, 0.93 WHIP, 2.27 ERA

Let’s see how the computers think the Dark Knight will respond this year:

PECOTA (BP): 2-2, 7 G, 39 IP, 40 K, 11 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-8, 151.1 IP, 152 K, 43 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.91 ERA
MLB.com: 10-7, 170.0 IP, 191 K, 37 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 3.07 ERA
ZiPS: 25 G, 153 IP, 140 K, 49 BB, 3.12 ERA
Steamer: 9-7, 23 G, 144 IP, 158 K, 39 BB, 3.00 ERA
ESPN: 11-6, 172 K, 1.10 WHIP, 3.04 ERA

Average: 8.4-6, 131.3 IP, 142 K, 35.8 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.998 ERA

The computers average together an ERA of about 3, which what I will be happy to see out of Harvey this year. I’m also pleased that the computers feel he will maintain a strong with WHIP though out the season,in fact it is the only stat they were all pretty much in agreement with. Surprisingly, PECOTA in the BP annual does not feel the Mets will get much out of Harvey at all.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Milwaukee

The Brewers have two former Mets in their ranks: Juan Centeno and Carlos Gomez.

Juan Centeno, catcher, who joined the Brewers this off season being selected off waivers at the end of October. Juan didn’t really have a place on the team this year with d’Arnaud as the starter, Recker as the back up, Plawecki waiting in the hole, and other players looking to fill in the back up spot. Hopefully Juan finds a role with the Brewers.

Carlos Gomez is probably the best player right now in the majors who used to be a Met. The Twins acquired him as part of the deal for Johan Santana, and he would become the only redeeming part of the trade for the Twins, but they traded him the next year to the Brewers where he became a great player. Poor Twins.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you know any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Dillon Gee

Dillon Gee is going to be one of the more difficult pitchers for computers to project, mainly because when the numbers were first run, Gee was going to be a starter. If Gee stays with the Mets, barring something unforeseen, he’ll be in the pen. He could also be traded. Anyway, lets take a look at what the fly-ball pitcher was able to do last season:

2014 Stats: 7-8, 22 G, 137.1 IP, 94 K, 43 BB, 1.25 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

And his 2015 projections:

PECOTA (BP): 7-8, 22 G, 132.2 IP, 107 K, 39 BB, 1.22 WHIP, 3.90 ERA
MLB.com: 6-6, 110 IP, 77 K, 34 BB, 1.26 WHIP, 3.93 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 7-7, 121 IP, 98 K, 36 BB, 1.21 WHIP, 3.79 ERA
ZiPS: 23 G, 142 IP, 107 K, 40 BB, 4.18 ERA
Steamer: 5-7, 17 G, 96 IP, 70 K, 26 BB, 4.35 ERA
ESPN: 6-5, 73 K, 1.22 WHIP, 3.86 ERA

Average: 6.2-6.6, 20.6 G, 120.1 IP, 88.6 K, 35 BB, 1.23 WHIP, 4.00 ERA

For the most part, the computers think given two-thirds of a season, Gee would improve on his stats when accounted for playing time. We’ll see what happens when he gets moved to the pen, and then fences are accounted for also.

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds have four former Mets in their system right now between Marlon Byrd, Josh Satin, Elvin Ramirez and Cam Maron.

Marlon Byrd was given a contract by the Mets a few years ago to resurrect his career. He put up huge numbers for the Mets and was traded with Buck to the Pirates, signed a big contract with the Phillies who later traded him to the Reds.

Josh Satin! Eyebrows! Josh made his debut with the Mets, had some big moments, but never was a critical player. He was granted free agency this year and signed with the Reds. Best of luck! Hope your caterpillars become butterflies in Cinncy!

Elvin Ramirez made his major league debut this season but he didn’t project in the Mets future pen back in 2012. He was signed by the Mets in 2004, selected in the Rule V draft in 2010 by the Nationals, but returned to the Mets. He was then traded to the Angels, signed with the Pirates and most recently signed with the Reds.

Finally Cam Maron was a catching prospect in the Mets organization that has both d’Arnaud and Plawecki. The Mets were not able to protect him in the Rule V draft this year and he was claimed by the Reds.

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!

2015 Projections: Jeurys Familia

Part of the Mets strength heading into camp is by May/June, the Mets should have three pitchers on the roster who could potentially close between Mejia, Familia and Parnell. Familia had his first full season last year and he clearly demonstrated that he knew what he was doing on the mound:

2014 Stats: 2-5, 5 SV, 76 G, 77.1 IP, 73 K, 32 BB, 1.18 WHIP, 2.21 ERA

By the end of the year, he was mostly a set-up man, but had some closing experience as well. His ERA was super-low, although his K/BB ratio was a bit higher than what you would like to see from a late bullpen pitcher (however his K/9 was close to what you want). Let’s take a look at his projections for next year:

PECOTA (BP): 3-3, 1 SV, 24 G, 58.2 IP, 55 K, 27 BB, 1.34 WHIP, 4.01 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 3-3, 7 SV, 66 IP, 55 K, 28 BB, 1.35 WHIP, 4.05 ERA
MLB.com: 3-2, 0 SV, 72 IP, 68 K, 27 BB, 1.24 WHIP, 3.25 ERA
ZiPS: 65 G, 65.1 IP, 63 K, 28 BB, 3.17 ERA
Steamer: 3-3, 6 SV, 55 G, 55 IP, 56 K, 23 BB, 3.55 ERA
ESPN: 5-3, 0 SV, 71 K, 1.33 WHIP, 3.00 ERA

Average: 3.4-2.8, 2.8 SV, 48 IP, 63.1 IP, 61.3 K, 26.6 BB, 1.32 WHIP, 3.51 ERA

The computers are split on his ERA and K’s. They are all convinced on an ERA regression, which is pretty typical after a sub 2.50 ERA year, but some are showing way more regression, which is why he averages out to a 3.51 ERA. They all show an equally large regression on WHIP, but are pretty constant on the amount of walks he’ll allow, so I guess the computers think he’ll give up more hits?

Where Are They Now: Former Mets in Chicago (Cubs)

The Chicago Cubs organization now features four former Mets between Taylor Teagarden, Gonzalez German German, Mike Baxter and Pedro Feliciano.

This season will be a homecoming of sorts if Taylor Teagarden makes the major league roster. Teagarden was drafted by the Cubs in 2002, went to college and then was drafted by the Rangers in 2005 (so I guess not really a homecoming situation if he makes the major league roster this year). In 2011 he was traded to the Orioles and signed as a free agent with the Mets last year  playing in 9 games hitting .143 over 28 ABs. This off-season he signed a deal with the Cubs.

Gonzalez German German has had quite the off-season. He was traded to the Yankees from the Mets, then traded to the Rangers, then selected off waivers by the Cubs and finally cleared waivers with the Cubs making them his final stop this year. German was signed by the Mets in 2007 and has pitched at least 30 innings in the last two seasons in the majors with moderate success. Best of luck Gonzalez!

Baxter is a legend in New York. You already know why, you don’t need me to spell it out for you. In 2005 he was drafted by the Padres, the Mets claimed him in 2011, then he was claimed by the Dodgers in 2014 and signed as a free agent with the Cubs this season. I’m hoping he can break camp with the Cubs and make it back to Queens for a visit this year.

Finally there’s Pedro Feliciano. Perpetual Pedro was a rock in the Mets bullpen for several seasons, but bullpen mismanagement led to arm trouble that he never deserved. He was drafted in 1995, by the Dodgers, was granted free agency in 2011 when he signed with the Reds. He was then traded to the Mets in 2002, and claimed by the Tigers. They released him and he signed back with the Mets. It was also with the Mets where he finally made his major league debut. In 2005 he was purchased by a Japanese team and a year later he signed back with the Mets. In 2011 he signed with the Yankees, 2013 back with the Mets, 2014 with the Cardinals and now with the Cubs. Keep on pushing!

This series of articles will take us across every organization in baseball and look for former Mets in the majors and minors to see how they are doing, leading up to a “Former Mets Team” to see how the current Mets stack up with pieces we have all over the place. I am still looking for Mets team members on the Pirates, Rangers, White Sox and Tigers. If you any, please let me know!