213 Miles From Shea

The 2016 Mets got two surprises down the stretch that floated the team into a Wild Card game in Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Injuries early on to the rotation in 2017 put a lot of pressure on Robert Gsellman and he didn’t have a good year. Earlier in the off-season he was slated to be in the projection depth chart and probably in Las Vegas right now but through Spring Training he emerged as a bullpen option. So far, he’s been great! Let’s see what the computers thought he would do this year.

The computers basically saw two things. First, his 2016 was flukey good. This is what the computers saw going into last season. Second, his 2017 was flukey bad. For the most part the computers see Gsellman as a starter getting considerable time in the rotation this year except Steamer who saw Robert as a reliever .As a reliever his numbers should be better than his projection line which is already better than his 2017 line.

I’m looking forward for Gsellman’s 2018! He’s off to a good start seems to be vibing with Callaway and the new system.

When I went to San Diego last summer, my goal was to have fish, tacos and a lot of fish tacos. This was the first of two fish tacos I got at the ballpark.

Between the food, beer and atmosphere, San Diego is my favorite ballpark across the land! Go. Like right now. You need this.

The Mets will go as far as their bullpen this year, and Familia will be crucial. Going into the season, the Mets were reluctant to name an exact closer, opting to go by closer by committee although it seems early on that Familiar is the go to person for that role. It has felt like for years that Familia’s stock as a closer was raised by his propensity to get saves and Collins affinity for saves as a statistic.

Last year was rough for Familia. The computers see Familia going back to his mean numbers. If he puts a 3.31 ERA/3.26 FIP/1.29 WHIP, that would be a boon to the Mets bullpen. So far in the last two days we have seen both sides of Familia with a heart attack ninth inning and a ninth inning that was anxiety inducing only due to its proximity in time to the heart attack inning.

One of the key pieces of the Mets bullpen last year was Jerry Blevins. The Mets need Blevins to be Blevins like as the Mets lived and died with their pitching for the majority of last season. Already the #1 personality in the bullpen, once Reed was traded, Blevins became the most reliable member of the pen pitching in 75 games because Terry Collins was Terry Collins. What do the computers think he’ll do this year?

The computers see a regression on his numbers in terms of ERA, but not so much on FIP (ZiPS actually sees him posting a better FIP than last year). Despite a huge rise in his ERA, the computers see his WHIP dropping, so maybe the computers also thought the Mets would have trash defense?

The Mets start their first road trip of the season this year as they head down to Washington. It was a successful first week for the Mets as they went 4-1, thanks in large part to their bullpen and they face a Nationals team that is now 4-2 after starting the season 4-0. With the exception of 2015, the Nationals have played well against the Mets and while I personally want to be calm, cool and collected saying “this is just another game” or “it’s barely the second week of the season, it’s too early to be scoreboard watching” – I can’t. Two of three to start the season down in DC would be great. Let’s just started with 1 though for right now. And what a good 1 it could be today as this afternoon also marks the return of Scooter! Michael Conforto returns to the Mets almost a month ahead of the original May 1st estimate.

Additional concerns: with today being the home opener for the Nationals, the Mets and Nationals have a wonky schedule this weekend including a day game today, an off day tomorrow, a day game Saturday and a night game on Sunday. Further complicating the schedule – snow may be on the way for the DC region Friday into Saturday.

Jacob deGrom makes his second start of the season for the Mets. He picked up a win in the Mets second game of the year pitching 5.2 innings allowing a run on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 7. He was 3-2 against the Nationals in 2017 in as many games pitching 34.1 innings allowing 11 runs, 9 earned (2.36 ERA) from 27 hits and 10 walks while striking out 49 and posting a WHIP of 1.149. His 2.36 ERA was the best ERA he posted against any team in the National League East. The Nationals have the following numbers against deGrom:

• Harper 9-24, 2 2B, HR, 5 BB
• Rendon 0-19, 4 BB, 6 K
• Kendrick 2-20, 3 K
• Taylor 1-19, BB, 11 K
• Zimmerman 5-16, 2 HR, 6 K
• Turner 5-15, 2B, HR, BB
• Weiters 3-12, HR

The Mets bats draw Stephen Strasburg this afternoon, coming off back to back All Star Seasons. In his first start in 2018 he allowed 3 runs, 1 earned over 6.1 innings from 8 hits and one walk while striking out 7 on his way to a win. Last year he was 15-4 over 28 games and 175.1 innings with a 2.52 ERA, 2.72 FIP (league leading), 1.015 WHIP and 176 ERA+. Stephen was 1-1 in four starts against the Mets pitching 24.1 innings holding the Mets to 8 runs (2.96 ERA) from 21 hits and 6 walks while striking out 19. The Mets have the following numbers against Strasburg:

• Reyes 8-32, 3 2B, BB
• Bruce 8-22, 2B, HR, 3 K
• Cabrera 3-16, 2 HR, 2 BB, 5 K
• d’Arnaud 4-16, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Cespedes 8-15, 2B, 4 K
• Lagares 2-16, 7 K
• Conforto 2-15, HR, 7 K

Who’s Hotter than a overcrowded 5 train trying to bring Mets fans to Grand Central and Yankee fans to some other place?
The Mets bullpen! Yesterday they posted 5 scoreless innings including HANSEL ROBLES (despite the Phillies messing with his undershirt)

Who’s Colder than all the fans yesterday at Citi Field before the Sun came out?
Any Mets fan who follows relies on the rhythm of the Mets first pitch times to establish order in their life. Through the weekend the Mets will have only one game this entire season that started at 7 PM.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets and Phillies wrap up their first series of the year today as Noah Syndergaard looks to hold off Herrera and the weather in a matinee game held exclusively on Facebook for reasons I personally refuse to understand. Last nigh was a vintage Harvey night as Matt tossed 5 scoreless innings and the Mets bats made sure to match him putting up a bland offense. After some pitching changes, the Mets broke out their seasoning, scored a couple of runs and survived a Phillies rally in the ninth.

Noah Syndergaard had an interesting day on Opening Day. He tossed 6.0 innings allowed 4 runs from two homers and 4 hits, but didn’t walk any and struck out 10. One homer definitely came from a pitch where he just missed his spot so the line by runs looks worse than it actually was. Noah faced the Phillies twice last year. His first start against him, where he started to show signs of an injury that would rupture a week later against the Nationals, he allowed 5 runs, 3 earned off 7 hits in 7.0 innings while walking none and striking out 10. He closed out the season against the Phillies tossing 2.0 innings allowing one walk and striking out 2. The Phillies have the following numbers against Syndergaard:

• Herrera 1-17
• Hernandez 1-11, 3 BB, 5 K
• Franco 4-13, 2B, 3 K
• Altherr 1-7
• Knapp 1-4, 2B
• Nola 0-2
• Hoskins 0-0, BB

Many eyes in the baseball world will be on Aaron Nola and the Phillies bullpen management today. Gabe Kapler made a big deal at the start of the season that Nola is great the first time through the order (and even better the second time through) but falls apart the third time. On Opening Day, Nola tossed 5.1 innings allowing 3 hits and run with only one walk while striking out 3. After 68 pitches he was pulled and the bullpen blew up the game. This was the first day of Kaplers very bad, no good first week of managing baseball. Last year Nola went 12-11 over 27 games with 168.0 innings, 3.54 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 1.208 WHIP and 121 ERA+. Aaron went 2-0 in as many starts against the Mets last year allowing 5 runs from 9 hits and 6 walks in 12.0 innings (3.75 ERA). The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Bruce 2-8, BB, 3 K
• Cespedes 3-8, HR, BB
• Cabrera 2-6
• d’Arnaud 1-5, 2B
• Reyes 1-5
• Nimmo 0-2
• Rosario 1-2, 2B

Who’s hotter than the way weather should be today?
Lugo and Gsellman have tossed a combined 3.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits and 8 K’s in their transition to the bullpen

Who’s colder than a Mets fan waiting 3 innings to use the bathroom at a sellout game?
Flores is now 1-7 on the year. Small sample size. I really struggled trying to find someone for this section today.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets dropped the last game of the series against the Cardinals on Sunday and the Mets were deprived of a chance to get back on the winning track last night thanks to snow earlier in the day. The question tonight is about rain, the Mets should be able to get the game in with at most a delay, so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Mets fan staring at the game postponing snow yesterday?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Before being injured in 2013, Matt Harvey was the league leader in FIP at 2.01. He was incredible in 2015 coming off his first major injury. Then 2016 and 2017 happened. Last year was a disaster for Harvey but as he goes into a walk year, Harvey has a chance to bounce back while the expectations for him are low.

What do the computers think he’ll do?

Well, that’s a dramatic improvement. it’s not 2012-2015 Harvey, but it’s so much better than 2017 Harvey. The computers see him regressing to mean which in this case, regression doesn’t carry the same connotation that it normaly does. Computers see him losing almost 0.3 points off his WHIP which would also be fantastic.

In 2015, if you showed me that average stat line for Harvey, I would have responded with “that’s garabage!”. Or, “that’s worse than the EPA’s current attempt at cleaning up the Passaic River!”. But after last year, a Harvey with a 4.65 ERA, 4.5 FIP and 1.4 WHIP would dramatically help the Mets. My gut says, because my gut is a hopeless optimist, that Harvey will be better than this average stat line. I have no evidence to back this up outside of desire to see Harvey fly high in what could easily be his last season as a Met.

Yesterday just wasn’t the day for the Mets as they dropped the last game of the series to the Cardinals. Today, the Mets look to get back in the win column against the Phillies as the Mets open their first series against an NL East team. The snow should be long gone by game time so hopefully the manager of the Phillies will be able to see the bullpen and call on a pitcher tonight who has actually warmed up.

It’s a big day in Mets land! Harvey Day! Will the Mets get 2017 Harvey? 2016? 2015? Last year Harvey went 5-7 over 19 games and 18 starts tossing 92.2 innings with a 6.70 ERA, 6.37 FIP, 1.694 WHIP and 63 ERA+. In the exact same amount of innings in 2016 Harvey had a 4.86 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.468 WHIP and 83 ERA+. Harvey made two starts against the Phillies last year. His first one, the second start of the season, he allowed 2 runs over 5.2 innings and 6 K’s and was taken out of the game early for an injury concern (the Mets were destroying the ball offensively that night). His second start against the Phillies was his last start of the season where he allowed 4 runs on 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks. The Phillies have the following numbers against him:

• Herrera 4-16, HR, 6 K
• Hernandez 4-11, 2 BB
• Franco 3-8, 2 HR
• Santana 0-1, 2 BB
• Alfaro 1-1, 2B
• Hoskins 1-2

The Mets bats will see Ben Lively’s first start of 2018 coming off or a rookie year where he went 4-7 over 15 games and 88.2 innings with a 4.26 ERA, 4.97 FIP, 1.286 WHIP and 99 ERA+. Even though he only made 15 starts, he faced the Mets 3 times (or 20% of his starts) and held the Mets to only 5 runs from 15 hits and 7 walks over 19.1 innings which comes out to a 2.33 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. The Mets have the following numbers against Lively:

• Reyes 2-9, 3B, HR, BB
• Carbera 3-9, 2B
• d’Arnaud 3-9, 2B
• Nimmo 0-5, BB
• Lagares 2-4, 2B
• Bruce 0-2
• Cespedes 0-3
• Flores 0-3
• Rosario 0-2

Who’s Hotter than the new Nashville Hot Chicken Sandwich available on the Promenade?
Lagares has 5 hits in the last two days and he wasn’t even supposed to play yesterday but Nimmo was sick and Juan stepped up.

Who’s Colder than a Yankee fan at today’s afternoon Opening Day in the snow?
The Mets on Sundays. Last year they just could not get it done on Sundays and that fate leaked into 2018.

Let’s Go Mets!

Bring your brooms to Citi Field as the Mets go for a sweep to close out their first series of 2018! Yesterday the Mets fired on all cylinders for a second day in a row winning 6-2 behind a normal Jacob deGrom performance, three hits from Cabrera, a homer from Cespedes, 3 RBI’s from the Todd Father and a homer from d’Arnaud. In order to get the sweep Mets must do two things that were elusive in 2017: win on a Sunday and get a reliable start from Steven Matz.

Matz was 2-7 over 13 games and 66.2 innings with a 6.08 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.530 WHIP and 70 ERA+. When he came back from injury last year in June, he he had a fantastic start in Atlanta but then had two torrid starts. Through July 3rd he pretty much was either great or terrible but starting with a game against the Cardinals on July 9th until he got injured again, he was pretty much just terrible. Against the Cardinals he allowed 5 runs off 7 hits and a walk in 4.1 innings. The Cardinals have the following numbers against him:

• Ozuna 3-11
• Fowler 2-6
• Carpetenter 1-32, 2B
• Pham 3-3, HR
• DeJong 2-2, HR
• Gyorko 0-2
• Molina 0-2

For the first time in two days, the Mets bats will not face a former All-Star (same can be said for the Cardinals) in Luke Weaver. In his sophomore season, Weaver went 7-2 over 60.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.260 WHIP, 110 ERA+. Luke will be looking to rebound from the end of his season where he allowed 14 runs over 7.2 innings in two starts from 16 hits and 6 walks. His ERA for last year drops to 2.05 if you ignore those last two starts. This will be Luke’s first start against the Mets in his career and he has not faced any Mets while they were members of other clubs.

Who’s Hotter Than Take By A Relative At A Holiday* Dinner?
In his first two games this year, Cespedes has been on base 6 times in 10 plate appearances. Small sample size but he has a 1.457 OPS which is a fun start of the season scoreboard number.

Who’s Colder Than A Turkey* Someone forgot to defrost properly?
All of us in the NYC metro area. It may snow tonight.

*Happy Passover and Easter to those who celebrate. The turkey may have been my situation yesterday. Oops.