One of the key pieces of the Mets bullpen last year was Jerry Blevins. The Mets need Blevins to be Blevins like as the Mets lived and died with their pitching for the majority of last season. Already the #1 personality in the bullpen, once Reed was traded, Blevins became the most reliable member of the pen pitching in 75 games because Terry Collins was Terry Collins. What do the computers think he’ll do this year?
The computers see a regression on his numbers in terms of ERA, but not so much on FIP (ZiPS actually sees him posting a better FIP than last year). Despite a huge rise in his ERA, the computers see his WHIP dropping, so maybe the computers also thought the Mets would have trash defense?