213 Miles From Shea

The Mets are coming off another loss, this time to the Braves as they play the second game behind their ace. The highlight for the Mets yesterday happened early as Nimmo hit a homer but after that it was a pretty quite night for the Mets. Bobby Wahl, from the Familia trade, looked good in his first outing with the big league squad.

Will the Mets score for Jacob deGrom tonight? Trends say no but lets hope. Jacob is 5-6 over 21 games and 138.1 innings with a 1.82 ERA (league leading), 2.26 FIP (league leading), 0.976 WHIP and 209 ERA+ (league leading). He’s looked more human in his last two starts allowing 6 runs, 5 earned over 15.0 innings while striking out 15. Those numbers of course would be great for pretty much every other pitcher. In his last start against the Braves in June he allowed 1 run over 7.0 innings while striking out 7. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Freeman 11-38, 2 2B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 10 K
• Markakis 9-33, HR, BB, 5 K
• Inciarte 6-29, 2 2B, 2 BB, 7 K
• Swanson 3-13, 2B, 3 BB
• Albies 2-13, 4 K
• Flowers 4-11, HR, 3 BB
• Duvall 0-2, 2 K

The Mets bats will get to see Anibal Sanchez who is 5-3 over 14 games and 13 starts over 78.0 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 1.090 WHIP and 130 ERA+. In his last two starts he has allowed 8 runs, 7 earned over 12.1 innings from 13 hits and 5 walks against the Nationals and the Dodgers. In his last start against the Mets at the end of May, he allowed 4 runs over 4.0 innings but it was also his return from the DL. The Mets have the following numbers against Anibal:

• Reyes 9-39, 5 BB
• Bautista 6-20, 2 2 B HR, 4 BB
• Frazier 1-16, 2 BB
• Jackson 3-7, 2B
• Conforto 1-4, HR
• Nimmo 1-2

Lets Go Mets!

The Mets return home today after dropping both games in Washington, one more significantly than the other. Yesterday the Mets lost by a much more normal 5-3 where Syndergaard had a solid return to the lineup and Reyes, who came in for an injured Evans, some how hit two homers.

Tonight its Vargas again who is 2-6 over 10 games and 42.0 innings with a 8.36 ERA, 6.64 FIP, 1.786 WHIP and 46 ERA+. Last time was his first time back since landing on the DL and he allowed 3 runs over 4.1 innings from 3 hits and 3 walks. Honestly, his line should have been worse as he received a couple of great defensive plays. His second start of the season this year was against the Braves and they hit him hard tagging him for 6 runs from 11 hits and 2 walks in 4.2 innings including 3 homers. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

• Suzuki 10-43, HR, 3 BB, 6 K
• Markakis 8-33, 2 2B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Flowers 1-7, HR, BB
• Flaherty 3-6, HR
• Albies 1-5
• Freeman 1-4
• Acuna 2-3, HR

The Mets bats will get another look at Mike Foltynewicz who is 7-7 over 112.1 innings with a 3.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.193 WHIP and 128 ERA+. He is still having a career year where his numbers in each of those categories are better than they have ever been, thus earning a spot in the All-Star game this year. That being said, the last four starts for him have been rough. He has allowed 18 runs over 23.1 innings which is an ERA of 6.94. His ERA going into this patch was 2.02. He last time he faced the Mets this year he held them scoreless and to only 2 hits over 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against him

• Conforto 1-4
• Bautista 2-4
• Flores 2-4, 2B
• Jackson 0-2
• Reyes 0-3
• Mesoraco 1-2
• Rosario 0-2

Let’s Go Mets!

The tradeline passed and the Mets didn’t make a trade outside of the two they already did. Last year’s Mets were similar with players being shipped out for minor league arms and cash throughout August. The difference this year is the players the Mets have to do that aren’t as valuable or movable as last year’s. For example: Granderson, Bruce were on big contracts expiring in 2017. This year only Mesoraco and Blevins have a contract like that. There is a chance Bautista clears waivers but if he doesn’t the Mets lose a lot of negotiating power to make the trade. I don’t buy the line “if the Mets were offered something of value, they would have taken it”, I don’t see how the Mets get more value in this scenario. Even 50-100k of international signing money would be more valuable to the Mets as a whole right now than keeping Bautista on the team.

Anyway, the Mets kept the roster together saying they are looking to contend in 2019. The Mets have pretty much kept the roster together from 2015. The 2017/2018 seasons are two of the worst in the history of the franchise that is known for losing. Frustratingly, this year’s club was built to resemble the previous year’s by resigning players who were free agents back and magically for the Mets almost every free agent signing this off-season has resulted in poor play this year.

I would love to believe in this starting rotation and improved health of the team next year to lead to the Mets contending. But the other teams in the East are getting younger and better. The Mets would have to spend a lot of money smartly this off-season, which is what they haven’t done, in order to do well and the Wilpons would have to see things like the Wright insurance money as money not on the payroll. This lack of hope makes it hard for me to believe the Mets will be different next year. It’s also this lack of hope that feels different for the Mets. There aren’t star players coming up right now, it feels like the Mets are destined to be terrible to mediocre for a while.

Ultimately if the Mets are going to compete, they need to spend money. Here are some players they can spend money on next year and make a difference for 2019. It also means they need to trade players and eat salary in those trades to sign better players.

This has been the problem with the Mets since 2015, the Mets on the field just feel slightly better than the average of what’s on the market, so then they don’t make a move. Frazier blocks any new third basemen from coming in. Last year Cabrera blocks any new second baseman from coming in. The largest block of them all: some how Bruce blocks both a true center fielder from coming in and blocks a first basemen from coming in. The catching pair for d’Arnaud and Plawecki blocks the Mets from spending there. Players are going to need to get moved to other teams creatively in a way that brings back marginal talent (because they can only demand marginal talent) and the Wilpons will have to eat salary. Then the Mets will have roster space to bring in a superstar. Which is what this team lacks, especially without Cespedes.

Otherwise the Mets should really strip down, sell their assets for the best prospects possible, commit to this idea and wait out some these bad contracts.

A week ago yesterday looked like it was going to be a major day in Mets history with possible historic trades and the revealing of a vision for either contending next year or in 2021/2022. Instead, we got not vision except to expect the same Mets next year in 2019 and got a historic loss instead. The Mets lost 25-4. For positives: Jeff McNeil got a homer, played a role in the 9th inning “rally”. The Mets were already losing an embarrassing 19-1 when Jose Reyes got the call to the mound and did so bad that the Mets had to get their bullpen warming up, which defeats the purpose of having Jose pitch.

But the Mets have the return of Syndergaard today! Syndergaard comes back from missing 10 days with hand, foot and mouth disease which shortened his last start causing a dip in velocity in his last inning and shortness of breath. On the season he is 6-1 over 13 games and 74.2 innings with a 2.89 ERA, 2.57 FIP, 1.246 WHIP and 132 ERA+. In his two starts after returning from his longer DL trip he allowed 2 runs over 10.0 innings from 15 hits and 2 walks. One of those starts was against the Nationals where he allowed 1 run over 5.0 innings. The Nationals have the following numbers against him:

• Harper 6-21, 2B, 4 BB, 7 K
• Rendon 8-23, 2B, HR, B, 5 K
• Murphy 3-15, 2 2B, 2 BB
• Zimmerman 3-12, 2 2B, BB
• Turner 1-9
• Taylor 2-7
• Soto 1-3

The Mets will get to see an old friend this afternoon in Tommy Milone. Tommy pitched in 11 games for the Mets last year, including 5 starts where in 27.1 innings he posted a 8.56 ERA, 7.15 FIP, 1.756 WHIP and 49 ERA+. In his first start as a National he allowed 3 runs off 8 hits in 5.0 innings against the Marlins. There are very few Mets who are not injured right now who have seen Milone:

• Jackson 3-16, 2B, BB
• Reyes 2-6
• Bautista 0-3, 2 K

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets come off a 1-0 win against the Pirates on Sunday where Wheeler did it all and head into DC where the season is slipping away from the Nationals. The Mets could be having a busy day pretty much right up to game time with the trade deadline or the Mets team could remain mostly intact. Here’s hoping something doesn’t happen that invalidates this preview between when I wrote it and first pitch!

Steven Matz is 5-8 over 20 games and 107.0 innings with a 3.79 ERA, 4.76 FIP, 1.262 WHIP and 100 ERA+. He’s coming off back to back rough starts where he allowed 9 runs over 11.0 innings from 12 hits and 3 walks. Before that he faced the Nationals where he allowed 3 runs over 6.1 innings from 8 hits and 2 walks. The Nationals have the following numbers against Matz:

• Taylor 4-17, HR, 2 BB, 7 K
• Harper 2-15, 2 BB
• Rendon 5-17, 3 HR, 8 K
• Turner 2-16, 2B, BB
• Zimmerman 1-13, HR
• Murphy 4-11, 2B, HR, BB
• Mark Reynolds 4-11, 3 2B

The Mets bats will get a look at Tanner Roark who is 4-12 (league leading in losses) from 21 games, 20 starts in 122.2 innings with a 4.55 ERA, 4.27 FIP, 1.337 WHIP, and a 93 ERA+. He is coming off one his best starts of the season where he allowed no runs over 8.0 innings before that posted an 8.31 ERA over 6 games and 30.1 innings. One of those starts was against the Mets where he allowed 4 runs from 8 hits and 2 walks in 5.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Roark:

• Conforto 4-17, 2 2B, HR, 4 BB
• Flores 3-15, 2B
• Reyes 3-12, 2 BB
• Mesoraco 1-8
• Nimmo 4-6, HR
• Rosario 1-7, 3B
• Jackson 3-4

Let’s Go Mets!

Last night was a typical Mets game with a deGrom start in 2018. Jacob gave the Mets his all and the Mets got runners on base but failed to move any home as the Mets lost 5-0. The story for today though is Zack Wheeler. As of this morning Wheeler hasn’t been traded yet so the start is happening. There’s a lot of interest in Wheeler but ultimately the Mets and other teams see two different Zacks. Other teams see the Wheeler who missed all of 2015 and 2016 and was spotty last year. The Mets see the Wheeler from 2013-14 and this year as a return to that form. So all eyes will be on Wheeler today.

Wheeler is 4-6 over 19 games and 114.1 innings with a 4.33 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.303 WHIP and 88 ERA+. He’s coming off a strong start where he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings, his best start recently came against the Pirates where he shut them out over 7.0 innings. In his last 5 starts he has posted a 3.03 ERA over 32.2 innings. The Pirates have the following numbers against Wheeler:

• Bell 1-6, 2 K
• Harrison 1-6, 2B
• Polanco 2-5, BB
• Dickerson 1-4
• Mercer 0-5
• Cervelli 2-3

The Mets will get a look at Joe Musgrove this afternoon who is 4-4 over 60.0 innings with a 3.90 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.317 WHIP and 103 ERA+. He’s been much better in most of his last four starts allowing 9 runs over 26.2 innings leading to a 3.04 ERA (this includes a start where he allowed 5 runs over 7.2 innings). Before this stretch his ERA was 4.59. A few Mets have had limited AB’s against Musgrove:

• Bautista 0-1
• Nimmo 0-1
• Plawecki 0-1
• Rosario 1-1
• Smith 0-1

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets winning streak snapped last night as the Pirates walked-off against the Mets. At some points last night it felt like neither team deserved to win as they left runners on base like children leave vegetables on plates. Anyway Vargas wasn’t great last night for the Mets but the defense behind him made him serviceable and Conforto continued to heat up. Of course the major story of the day was Cabrera being traded to the Phillies.

A story just as big as Cabrera being traded to the Phillies could be the Mets scoring for deGrom tonight. Jacob is 4-4 over 20 games and 131.1 innings with a 1.71 ERA (league leading), 2.28 FIP (league leading), 0.967 WHIP, and 223 ERA+ (league leading). In the month of July he has pitched 24.0 innings over 3 games with a 1.13 ERA. Last year he pitched 8.1 innings against the Pirates allowing 1 run off 6 hits and 1 walk and struck out 10. The Pirates have the following numbers against deGrom:

• Mercer 4-14
• Polanco 3-12, HR
• Harrison 3-12, 5 K
• Marte 1-5, BB
• Bell 0-3, BB
• Frazier 0-4
• Freese 0-4, 4 K
• Cervelli 0-3, K

The Mets bats draw Trevor Williams who is 8-7 over 20 games and 105.0 innings where he has posted a 4.11 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.238 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. Hes’s coming off two scoreless back to back starts where he has allowed 8 hits and 5 walks over 11.0 innings. (He preceded this with two of his worst back to back starts allowing 9 runs over 7.0 innings). Last year against the Mets he allowed 1 run over 7.0 innings from 7 hits and 2 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against Williams:

• Bautista 0-1, 2 BB
• Mesoraco 1-4, HR
• Conforto 2-3, 2B
• Flores 2-3, 2B
• Reyes 0-1

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are streaking! Fresh off their first series win since May, the Mets extended their winning streak to three games last night against the Pirates as the beat Pittsburgh 12-6. The real test of their streak comes tonight as Jason Vargas makes his return to the orange and blue. The real story for the Mets last night was how good the players on the trading block performed. Cabrera went 3-5 with 2 runs, 4 RBI’s and a walk. All of his hits were for extra bases (two doubles and a homer). Flores went 2-4, with 2 runs and 3 RBI’s, Bautista went 2-6 with a run, Mesoraco went 1-3 with 2 runs and a walk and Blevins pitched a scoreless inning allowing a walk and nothing else. Trades could happen quite soon for several players on the team so there is a feeling of uncertainty.

Jason Vargas was 2-6 over 9 games and 37.2 innings before straining his calf posting a 8.60 ERA, 6.61 FIP, 1.832 WHIP and 45 ERA+. The last time I could find a start Vargas made against Pittsburgh was in 2015, it was on July 21st and it was his last start of the season where he allowed 1 hit and no runs over 1.1 innings. On pitch #26 that night he tore his UCL. The Pirates have the following numbers against him:

• Rodriguez 3-21, 2B, 2 BB
• Freese 7-13, 2B,2 HR
• Cervelli 1-5
• Ho Kang 0-1
• Marte 1-1, 2B

The Mets bats will get a look at Ivan Nova tonight who is 6-6 over 19 games and 109.1 innings with a 4.28 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 1.262 WHIP and 93 ERA+. In his last three starts he’s been doing a full run better than his season numbers posting a 3.18 ERA over 17.0 innings. He allowed 3 runs over 6.0 innings off 5 hits against the Mets at the end of June. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

• Bautista 1-32, 4 2B, HR, 8 BB
• Cabrera 4-11, 2B
• Reyes 3-10, BB
• Mesoraco 1-4, 2B
• Conforto 1-3, HR
• Nimmo 0-3
• Rosario 1-1, 2B

Let’s Go Mets!

The Pirates may have had their winning streak snapped in their last game but they are still red hot as the Mets, winners of a series for the first time since May, come to Pittsburgh. Trade rumors swirling, the Mets roster could be in flux over the next few days as Wheeler, Cabrera and others find themselves scouted by other teams making a late season push.

Steven Matz is 4-8 over 19 games and 101.0 innings with a 3.65 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.287 WHIP and 104 ERA+. He’s coming off a rough start against the Yankees where he allowed 5 runs on 9 hits and a walk over 5.0 innings after a streak of four starts where he posted a 2.52 ERA in 25.0 innings. That streak includes a start against the Pirates where he allowed 3 runs from 6 hits in 7.0 innings of work. The Pirates have the following numbers against him:

• Freese 2-6
• Harrison 3-6, 3B
• Marte 0-6
• Mercer 1-5, BB
• Polanco 2-5, HR
• Cervelli 0-2, BB

Nick Kingham gets the start for the Pirates tonight. The rookie is 5-4 over 10 games and 57.0 innings with a 4.11 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 1.105 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. Across AA and AAA this season he is 4-2 over 10 games and 54.1 innings with a 2.65 ERA (so he has a similar amount of work in the majors and minors this season to make comparisons on). In his last three starts he has posted a 2.89 ERA over 18.2 innings. This will be Nick’s first start against the Mets in his career.

Let’s Go Mets!

In another universe, Noah Syndergaard is pitching today. Maybe in that universe the Mets are in a pennant race, Jacob deGrom is getting run support and I’m not going to WebMD every day to read about what ancient ailment is crushing the Mets today.

But we live in this universe where Syndergaard is on the DL with hand, foot and mouth disease so Corey Oswalt is back. I was quite unhappy when the Mets sent down Oswalt last week to get ready for Vargas, so I’m glad he’s back. Before we jump into his numbers it’s important to note that every time Oswalt has struggled it has been when his pitching schedule was disrupted which has been often. He is 0-2 over 5 games and 4 starts in 22.1 innings with a 5.64 ERA, 5.08 FIP, 0.985 WHIP and 69 ERA+. His WHIP is what is giving me hope. His FIP and WHIP are quite separated and it is unclear right now which one is telling his story (my gut tells me this is because he was near perfect in his last start until he allowed a 3 run double from 3 walks to a pitcher).

The Mets will face Clayton Richard who is 7-9 over 21 starts and 127.0 innings posting a 4.82 ERA, 4.31 FIP, 1.346 WHIP and 82 ERA+. He is also leading the league in hits (120) and earned runs (68). He is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed 7 runs over 3.0 innings and in his last 5 starts he is 1-4 over 27.0 innings with a 7.00 ERA. At the end of April he faced the Padres allowing 3 runs over 6.2 innings from 6 hits and 3 walks. The Mets have the following numbers against Richard:

• Reyes4-18, HR, 3 BB
• Cabrera 8-16, 5 2B
• Flores 2-8, 2 HR, BB
• Conforto 1-7, 2B, BB, 5 K
• Mesoraco 1-6
• Bautista 1-6, HR
• Rosario 1-3

Let’s Go Mets!