213 Miles From Shea

Coming into 2018 Gavin Cecchini was the #13 prospect in the Mets system. So much (and then so little) happened with Gavin in 2018.

Coming into 2018, Gavin had major league playing time in both 2016 and 2017 in the middle of the infield. 2016 he got very little playing time, getting 6 AB’s scattered across 4 games and recording 2 hits, both doubles (he hit .325/.390/.448 in Vegas). In 2016 he was battling both Matt Reynolds and TJ Rivera for playing time. The former was the utility player that looked to get the bulk of the time and the latter ended up surprising a lot of people.

Gavin then got an extended chance over 77 AB’s in 2017 but hit only .208/.256/.273. Combined with Vegas numbers of .267/.329/.380, this was a massive step back. Gavin was given an extended look at the end of the season when Rivera, who was turning heads again, went down and needed Tommy John.

Cecchini had a strong spring and was hitting .301/.347/.469 in Vegas until early May. In Queens, the Mets were struggling with Reyes and for a third straight season, it looked like a door was about to open for Gavin. Gavin fouled a ball off his foot and wasn’t able to play for the rest of the season. Then Jeff McNeil emerged. Even a healthy Gavin at the end of the season would have struggled to find playing time on the 2018 Mets.

So that’s where we are with Gavin. He plays a position where the Mets have a bit of depth (and a lot of health question marks). He’ll be competing for a bench role or maybe another team will try to pry him away for the Mets. It feels unfair that his moments of brilliance didn’t coincide with doors being opened by injuries and his own injury opening the door for another player.

For the purpose of the argument “Where Else Do The Mets Improve the Lineup?”, we are going to ignore the later effects / costs of Cano’s contract and ignore the starting rotation entirely. Right now the Mets set up something like this:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud/Plawecki
• First: Smith/Bruce/Alonso
• Second: McNeil
• Short: Rosario
• Third: Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo
• Outfield: Conforto
• Outfield: Bruce / Lagares / Cespedes

We’re glossing over some details in the above.  It’s a complete mystery when Cespedes comes back. Who knows when Alonso will be called up. Will the Mets bring back d’Arnaud?

If the Mets trade for Cano and do not get Haniger, their lineup will now shift to something like this:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud/Plawecki
• First: Frazier / Alonso (assuming Smith and Bruce go over in the trade)
• Second: Cano
• Short: Rosario
• Third: McNeil/ Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo
• Outfield: Conforto
• Outfield: Lagares / Cespedes

If the Mets do get Haniger also:

• Catcher: d’Arnaud / Plawecki
• First: Frazier / Alonso
• Second: Cano
• Third: McNeil / Frazier
• Outfield: Nimmo / Cespedes / Lagares
• Outfield: Confoto / Cespedes / Lagares
• Outfield: Haniger / Cespedes / Lagares

First, somehow receiving Haniger in the trade will completely change the depth the Mets have in the outfield. Nimmo/Conforto/Bruce isn’t the most defensively minded outfield and giving up Bruce really opens a reliance on Lagares and Cespedes’ health. So if the question is where else can the Mets improve if they get Cano, if they don’t get Haniger at the same time, they need an outfielder.

The next most obvious hole that can be filled is catcher. Plawecki was a slightly above average catcher last year but that’s only slightly above average. We also don’t know how he responds to a whole season and the depth right now isn’t great behind him. (Nido hasn’t stepped up yet and Sanchez is too far away). I would love for d’Arnaud to be great this season but his injury record is almost as bad or worse than Lagares.

Finally there’s the question of first base. The most obvious answer is to let Alonso play from the start. If the new GM is creative enough to pull off a Cano trade that brings in Haniger or Diaz, then maybe the front office will actually play prospects. Who knows.

When I started writing this article, I was against the Cano trade. I’m entirely sure if this convinces me but if McNeil can play third base then maybe the Mets can get creative with the outfield. The outfield would be cheaper to fix than 3rd (without Donaldson seems like a Machado or bust situation) which leaves more money to fix bullpen and bolster the rotation.

The stories in baseball can be so coincidental sometimes you could convince yourself there’s a higher order to the baseball universe orchestrating story lines. Anthony Kay, a left handed pitcher, attended the same Long Island high school as the current lefty in the Mets rotation, Steven Matz. Baseball America gave him a 55 grade with an extreme ranking (worth noting that no one in 2018 got a grade higher than 55 for the Mets).

Kay is the definition of an extreme risk. After he was drafted, his physical highlighted an elbow injury that would later lead to him getting Tommy John surgery. Coming into 2018, he had not pitched in a professional game at all (2017 he tossed Bullpen Sessions). Baseball America wrote about his plus changeup and a 90-95 mph fastball.

And Kay got his chance to pitch this year. In Columbia he went 4-4 over 13 starts and 69.1 innings with a 4.54 ERA. Then in St. Lucie he pitched in 10 games with a 3-7 record and 53.1 innings posting a 3.88 ERA. His 122.2 innings broke the ceiling that BA predicted between 90-110.

So next season Kay will get a higher inning ceiling. The Mets are lacking starting pitching prospects, so barring some unknown situation where the Mets load up on AAA starters or somehow acquire a lot of prospects, Kay will almost certainly start at AA or get to Binghamton by the middle of the season.

In addition, Kay will need to be added to the 40-man after this year. Right it seems unrealistic that Kay will be able to be on a major league roster for the entirety of the 2020 season, so he may be a player the Mets leave up in the Rule V draft after next season unless Kay has a dominating season.

It’s been almost two weeks since we returned to this old top 30 list, and we still have half the list to go (and honestly only 5 weeks left before it really becomes less of a review and more of a dated activity). Today we’ll look at right handed pitcher Jordan Humphreys with BA score of 50 and risk rating of high.

Most sentences I can write about Humphreys have some critical contradiction in them, some that are inherently worrisome (his best year was 2017 but then he had Tommy John) or others that just hopeful (he’ll be a young 23 next year but has already been in the Mets system since 2015).

Jordan started to appear on prospect radars after a serviceable 2016 that saw him post a 3.76 ERA over 69.1 innings (12 starts) in Brooklyn and a 3.58 ERA overall. Then he turned his name on in neon lights in 2017 when he posted a 1.42 ERA over 11 starts and 69.2 innings in Columbia. He was making the adjustment to High A ball (4.09 ERA over 11.0 innings, 2 starts) when he got injured and elected for season ended Tommy John surgery missing all of last year.

2019 will be an interesting year for him and the Mets. By the end of 2019 the Mets will have to put him on the 40-man roster or risk losing him to another team (and to be honest, even with an average 2019 season, another team will almost certainly roll the dice on Jordan). BA says, “Humphreys has all the ingredients to be a No. 4 starter”. In a system lacking starting pitching right now, Humphreys is going to get a lot of looks. Here’s hoping he comes back healthy!

The Mets have been linked to Andrew Miller as some early rumors in the bullpen market are starting to ooze out. Andrew Miller is part of the upper tier / upper-mid tier of relievers this year, so it’s relieving to hear the Mets are even doing their due diligence on Miller.

Miller hasn’t played in the National League since the 2010 season. Originally drafted by the Devil Rays (yes the Devil Rays, not the Rays) in 2003, he declined to attend college and signed with the Tigers a few years later in 2006. A top prospect, drafted 6th overall, he was part of the mega trade in 207 that sent Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to Detroit. Out of the 6 total players to the Marlins, only he and Maybin went on to become major league regulars. He played with the Marlins from 2008 until 2010 when he was traded to the Red Sox.

As a member of the Marlins he had a 5.89 ERA over 220.0 innings, mostly as a starter. If you only played against players who spend most of their time against the Mets, he seemed like a struggling prospect.

Then in 2012, the Red Sox shifted him to the bullpen. He responded with a 3.35 ERA over 40.1 innings, his best in his career at that point. Since 2012 he has logged 366.0 innings over 387 games with a 2.21 ERA, 2.24 FIP, and a 0.937 WHIP. From 2014-2017 he posted a 1.72 ERA over 261.0 innings. This is the golden age of Andrew Miller.

Andrew Miller is coming off an off-year posting a 4.24 ERA over 34.0 innings including a 3.51 FIP, 1.382 WHIP.

If the Mets are making to look a splash, Andrew Miller is a great place to start. But on his own, he’s definitely not enough.

This year, more than many, I felt bitter about the New York Mets. I was frustrated by the lack of smart financial investment in the team. Dismayed that the roster pretty much looked like the old and that the plan was to re-roll the odds on injuries. Not surprised that the same injury stuff happened again. There was a lot to be upset about this year.

I’m about to drive home to Baltimore to see the two of the three most important people in my life for why I’m a Mets fan. While showering I realized, there’s actually a lot to be thankful for this year.

2018 Mets Edition of What I’m Thankful for:

Brandon Nimmo: We don’t deserve your kindness. Before going to this year’s QBC I was all in about trading Nimmo to upgrade around the infield thanks to reading 20 baseball pundits that thought that was a good idea. But Nimmo won everyone with how genuinely wonderful of a human being is. Then he turned into a star player! Nimmo, you’re the best. Thanks for being a great ballplayer and a great person, for waving and talking to The 7 Line in the outfield and just filling us all with hope.

Jacob deGrom: We don’t deserve your patience. Jacob gave a consistence dominance that might never be seen again. Every time he went out on the mound this year he was great. In recent memory the only two other pitchers I felt this good about every 5th day in the rotation was Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana. Thank you for being a ray of sunshine this year.

Amed Rosario: Rosario grew so much this year. I didn’t quite see it until after the season but when looking back on 2018, he gave about two months of .300 ball, tightened up the defense at short that saw way too much Jose Reyes over the last couple of years, and gave hope for things to come.

Jeff McNeil: When all hope fails on the owners spending money to improve the team, you need an out of no-where player to shake things up, and that was Jeff. It wasn’t just great to see Jeff perform at the major league level like he was in the minors but it was also great to watch all the other fans know about Jeff before he got to the stadium. That’s the best thing about Mets fans, on the whole we may be cynical, but we know so much about this team.

Carlos Beltran: This one is a little cheeky but thank you Carlos Beltran, the most underrated Met of all time for your departing gift of Zack Wheeler. Wheeler had a tremendous bounce back year and at some level Beltran is rooted in it because #BlameBeltran.

Mikkeller: Hands-down the best new thing at Citi Field this year. (Sorry Jeff McNeil). I’ve always felt a little lost before game time. I rarely drive to the stadium so tailgating is awkward because I have plan ahead with people, which I generally don’t, bring exactly what I want to consume or share because I can’t bring it in to the stadium, etc. McFaddens is not my style of place at all. But Mikkeller. Mikkeller is perfect. Thank you for become a critical part of my Mets-game day experience.

Dole Whips: After Mikkeller the next best thing at the stadium was Dole Whips, and I don’t even like pineapple. They’re located on the Bud Light porch and by the 5th inning no one is in line and by September no one is in the stadium so go get it already

Citi Field: I’ve now been to 13 of the active major league ballparks and Citi Field still ranks incredibly high in diversity of food and drink options. There’s a lot of I would redesign about the stadium (more ramps instead of stairs to prevent crowding, larger bathrooms) but on the whole Citi Field is a top notch stadium and we’re lucky it’s ours.

The 7 Line: This was my second season sitting with y’all and it was a blast. There’s no one I’d rather commiserate with, travel to another country to watch baseball with and talk baseball shop with. See you again next year!

The Mets: You frustrate me to know end, but you’re still an escape for when things are tough. You’re a critical binding piece of my family. Somehow you ended up as part of my identity. Even if you go 0-162, I’ll still be sad at the end of the season.

The Marlins finally revealed their logo, jerseys and one hat yesterday. The leaked design from a few weeks ago ended up being correct. Let’s take a look at the set and then do some commentary (only if you want to stick around for it). (All pictures from the MLB.com shop)

As a quick note – these are all authentic jerseys, they all have the same patch on them except the blue one. The sleeve logo and the blue jersey are awfully close so I guess that’s why the patch isn’t on the arm. The jersey feels empty though, I’m wondering if there is another logo coming later to go on that arm, whether that’s this season or next.

Overall, the jerseys are refreshing compared to the old Marlins uniforms, but they feel a little bland, boring. The script and color is similar-ish to the Miami Heat Miami Vice Jerseys but just so much more…blah.

The black jersey, that is very close to black fashion jerseys is in my opinion the best of the set because it’s the only one that sufficiently different than the rest of the league. The lettering makes the identity look mysterious. The amount of black on the white jersey just looks like nice handwriting on paper.

There’s only one hat listed as On-Field right now. I feel like that will probably change at some point as well.

If you watched the MLB Network broadcast last night for Cy Young last night, before they announced the winner for Cy Young, you heard a lot of talk about how Scherzer had the best season of his career, how he led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts and WHIP. The show spent as much, if not more time, caught up on Scherzer hitting 300 K’s which is impressive compared to deGrom’s ERA.

When they finally did a side by side comparison of the two pitchers. They did a matrix of where they ranked in the league in three stats:

ERA: 1.70 / 2.53
Innings: 217 / 220
WHIP: 0.912 / 0.911

For the last two rows in huge red letters they had “2nd” by deGrom and “1st” by Scherzer. But this isn’t quite fair. The difference between 217 and 220 innings, 0.912 WHIP and 0.911 WHIP pales in comparison to 1.70 to 2.53 in ERA.

Ultimately, the baseball writers overwhelmingly agreed that deGrom was better, so here are some other stats that showed that.

Jacob led the league in ERA+ (216), FIP (1.98) and HR/9 (0.4). While the last one could be influenced by the ballpark (Nola can make this argument more than anyone else), its a drastic improvement from his previous year at 1.3.

Actually lets just list the things he led in:

• WAR – 10.0 (tied with Nola, when adjusted for pitchers he some how slips to 2nd)
• ERA- 1.70
• ERA+ – 216
• Adjusted Pitching Wins – 5.7 (Nola next at 4.7, Scherzer at 4.4)
• RE24 – 53.73 (Nola next at 45.70)
• WPA – 6.0 (Nola and Scherzer tied at 5.0)
• REW – 6.5 (Nola next at 5.0)

All while receiving some of the worst run support and pitching in more innings tied/or down than any other pitcher because the Mets bats just fell silent for him.

Congrats deGrom! This was an amazing year and we were all so lucky to witness it!

After a brief hiatus from this series, we’re back with Corey Oswalt! A pitcher who in my personal opinion got the short end of the stick in terms of prospect development this year as the Mets constantly sent him across the country, on red-eyes and short notice to pitch off schedule.

Oswalt was a late bloomer in the Mets system. BA attributes this to making a late conversion to pitching in high school thus spending more years in the lower levels of the Mets organization than a Top 30 prospect would.

The 2017 was his year thought. He went 12-5 over 24 games and 134 innings posting a 2.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP while recording 119 K’s vs 40 BB’s. This landed Oswalt on every Mets bloggers radar for the upcoming season.

Overall for the Mets last year, Oswalt went 5-5 over 17 games, 12 starts and 64.2 innings with a 5.85 ERA, 5.70 FIP, 1.376 WHIP and 63 ERA+. Somethings pop out when you look at his splits though. He had a solid stretch of starts in July where he pitched 20.0 innings and posted a 3.60 ERA (he posted a 6.35/6.14 ERA in August and September when the Mets started bouncing him around the bullpen and the rotation).

The change in numbers in July is seen even more when you only look at Oswalt as a starter. In 12 games and 55.1 innings as a starter, he had a 4.72 ERA, 1.319 WHIP. As a reliever in 5 games, only 9.1 innings, he had a 12.54 ERA with a 1.714 WHIP. Ultimately this speaks about the gaps in development the Mets provided once the season was spiraling out of control.

Oswalt’s position next year is completely dependent on two things. First, do the Mets sign another starter? If the Mets go sign or trade for another starter, Oswalt is almost certainly starting in Syracuse. Next, will the Wilpons get over Vargas? Vargas, making quite a bit money, gets the edge on Oswalt because he’s making quite a bit of money and the Wilpons historically push for playing time for their high rolling players.

Of course, all of that is predicated on Oswalt having a good spring. The most likely scenario for Oswalt is the team will debate in Spring whether he’s a starter or a reliever and if they pick the former, they’ll send him to Syracuse to start the season. Barring an injury to Corey, we’ll see him in 2018.

The Marlins have been heavily hinting, practically yelling, that they are doing a rebranding before the upcoming season. Earlier in October there were several leaks that were floating around the internet that pointed to an aquaish blue (not quite teal, not quite blue), orange and a heavy influence of black.

Then the banner on the twitter page for the Marlins changed show casing views of the city like this:

The colors of our vibe. #OurColores pic.twitter.com/y71PQ2IEHj

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 7, 2018

Which reinforces the idea in the leaks of a orange and blue accented logo that is mostly black.

Since the Marlins did that around the end of the World Series, they have been pushing their new hashtag #OurColores. In between posting pictures of billboards and local artists making murals presumably about the uniform reveal, the Marlins have now taken to posting hints at the uniform:

The colors of our vibe. #OurColores pic.twitter.com/y71PQ2IEHj

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 7, 2018

11.15 #OurColores pic.twitter.com/zqSlO2uS0Z

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 11, 2018

11.15 #OurColores pic.twitter.com/8sNC949xav

— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) November 12, 2018

The button tweet screams blue jersey. The other two tweets look like detail shots on a black jersey (I’m pretty sure the last one is a number, not a closeup of a logo on a hat).

It won’t be a mystery anymore in a couple of days, so speculate away.