213 Miles From Shea

Yesterday was a game the Mets would like to forget as they lost to the Marlins 8-1 after allowing 6 runs between the 7th and 8th inning. For the most part, the offense was silent yesterday except two hits by Dominic Smith raising his average to .433 and his OPS to 1.100 and a double by Rajai Davis. The lineup yesterday was a very much a spring away game despite being midway through spring as a lot of the regular hitters stayed home in St. Lucie. Jacob went 5.0 innings allowing 2 runs on 6 hits. Things really started to fall apart for the Mets when Bashlor got up. He allowed 4 runs on 5 hits in an inning of work.

Today, could easily be the Opening Day Lineup, minus Keon Broxton and with Jacob deGrom hitting. This is the closest lineup the Mets have had yet to a starting lineup, and that’s exciting! We’re only two weeks away!

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (LF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Wilson Ramos (C)
5. Michael Conforto (RF)
6. Pete Alonso (3)
7. Keon Broxton (CF)
8. Amed Rosario (SS)
9. Juan Lagares (DH)

Starting Pitcher: Noah Syndergaard

What To Watch For:

1. Noah Syndergaard will make his 4th start of spring today. So far he has pitched 8.2 innings allowing 5 runs, 3 earned off 8 hits and 5 walks. His WHIP is high in this small sample size at 1.5 but he also struck out an impressive 14. The Mets pushed Jacob through 5 innings yesterday so we can assume they’ll do the same for Syndergaard today.
2. Brandon Nimmo is slowly getting back into the rythem of spring. In 26 PA’s he’s now hitting .292/.308/.417
3. When I’m feeling down, I look at Wilson Ramos’ spring numbers. He’s hitting .364/.417/.500 in 24 PAs. That feels great!
4. If this was a regular season game and there was a pitcher in the lineup, I disagree with batting Rosario at 8th. His spring numbers agree with that hitting .412/.500/.882 in 20 PAs.
5. Seth Lugo has quietly put together a nice spring training so far. In 6.2 innings over 5 games he has allowed 4 runs but only 1 earned from 5 hits and a walk while striking out 8. That’s a 1.35 ERA and a 0.9 WHIP

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets made a late signing of Adeiny Hechavarria to a minor league deal this year with an invite to spring training. Hechavarria has never been known for his offense but is a defense super star. What the Mets didn’t know at the time is Lowrie and Fraizer would both be nursing injuries this late into camp and what seemed like a long shot for Hechavarria may become a reality.

So far this spring he has not impressed offensively posting a .286 OBP. Here are his numbers from last year:

2018: 274 PA, 253 AB, 5 HR, .249/.279/.336, 0.8 WAR, 89 DRC+
Career: .254/.290/.345, 78 DRC+

Computers project these numbers for 2019:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

It looks like from the average line that Adeiny is projected to have a slightly better season then average, but when you look at the numbers, Steamer and BR have him below average for the season, ESPN right around average and BP way above average. This is noteworthy: BP is usually the conservative, wet blanket on player projections and are rarely this different in a positive way for the player. I’m not sure what if any thing to make of it but it is interesting.

After two straight days of winning by huge margins, the Mets took a step back to reality yesterday with a 6-3 loss to the Astros. There are still bright spots to celebrate though! Nimmo had a 3 hit game and Mesoraco had a 2 hit game (he’s been struggling to get it going this spring). Vargas pitched 4.0 shutout innings allowing only 3 hits, no walks while striking out 3 dropping his Spring ERA to a 1.08. Lugo also put a scoreless inning. Yesterday was also the first time all spring that Avilan struggled, allowing 2 runs off 4 hits in an inning of work.

Outside of the game, the Mets optioned Walker Lockett and Corey Oswalt, who were both long shots to make the team, to minor league camp. Oswalt had a particularly positive spring and moved up the starting depth chart. The team also announced that Drew Smith would need Tommy John, which gives another possible spot for players trying to break into the pen.

Mets Lineup:

1. Jeff McNeil (DH)
2. Juan Lagares (CF)
3. Dominic Smith (1B)
4. Wilson Ramos (C)
5. JD Davis (3B)
6. Rajai Davis (LF)
7. Gregor Blanco (RF)
8. Adeiny Hechavarria (SS)
9. Danny Espinosa (2B)

Starting Pitcher: Jacob deGrom

What To Watch For:

1. This will be the second start for Jacob deGrom with Ramos catching. So far deGrom has pitched 7.0 innings over 3 games allowing 3 runs from 5 hits and 2 walks. He has struck out 9 in this stretch. How long deGrom goes today will give us an idea how long all of the starters will go their next time through the lineup.
2. If the Mets go with McNeil in the infield, than barring something unseen (like a trade), Lagares will be the Opening Day Centerfielder. In 9 games and 29 PAs this spring he has hit .214/.241/.286.
3. Broxton has the 5th starting spot but he is still facing competition from Blanco and Rajai Davis. Blanco is hitting .160/.250/.240 over 28 PAs. Davis is hitting .278/.364/.611 in 22 PAs this spring.
4. JD Davis is having a good spring and is fighting to get on the 25 man, possibly the OD thirdbase based on Fraizer/Lowrie and if McNeil goes back to the outfield (contigent on Davis blowing up and starts demolishing the ball). In 39 PAs he’s hitting .306/.359/.444.
5. Luis Avilan has essentially pitched himself on to this team. Yesterday was his first blip in a spotless couple of weeks of pitching. Wilson and Zamora are still battling and have roster spots which Avilan does not. Justin Wilson signed a major league deal and has allowed 5 runs over 4.0 innings. Zamora has allowed 4 runs over 4.0 innings from 7 hits and 3 walks.

Let’s Go Mets!

At the start of spring training, it looked like a sure bet that Pete Alonso would start the season in the minors, despite members of the Mets front office saying they would take the best 25 players up north with them. The Mets still had Frazier on the roster and just signed Jed Lowrie, creating logjams all over the infield.

However Frazier hasn’t played in a game this spring. Jed Lowrie hasn’t played in a game this spring. To compensate the Mets will most likely have to move Jeff McNeil back to the infield and there is still a hole at first base. Dominic Smith is having a terrific spring training. However Dominic Smith seems to be the unluckiest player in the world because despite him having a terrific spring, Pete Alonso is having an even better one.

2018 Minors: 574 PA, 478 AB, 36 HR, .285/.395/.579
Career: .290/.381/.560

Alonso destroyed the baseball last year and there were opportunities late in the season to get him playing time and experience coming into this year, but the Mets played the service time game that they may be playing right now. Here are how the major projections sites see Alonso performing in the majors:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. )

ZiPS and Steamer are awfully close to each other everywhere except WAR, which I’m assuming is difficult to predict for a player with 0 service time anyway. BP is close to them, but a little more hesitant. ESPN, which usually jumps in the direction of more offense is the most shy on Alonso.

Most of these projections do not having playing a full season, or have him getting at least one day off per week if he starts the season with the team. In that scenario 20ish homers seems about right. However if he crosses 525 PA’s, that number should closer to 25 homers following the projection patterns. That would be huge!

Let’s see what happens. Alonso’s first hurdle is the Mets brass.

The Mets improved to .500 yesterday, but that doesn’t matter. What does matter: for a second straight day the Mets looked to be firing on all cylinders with their offense flowing and their pitching stiffing.

Yesterday d’Arnaud, Rosario and McNeil all hit homers. Travis needed it as he is deep in a roster fight right now. Rosario was coming back from an injury and showed that he could pick up where he left off. Jeff was playing third today for the first time this spring. Since 2 of his 3 hits are homers, he has has a .231 BA but a .923 OPS (Small Sample Size Fun). Matz was dominate tossing 4.0 scoreless innings allowing 3 hits and a walk. Gsellman bounced back with with a scoreless outing. Wilson had a scoreless outing (finally!). For the second straight day it was good to look at the Mets box score.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (CF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (2B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Pete Alonso (1B)
6. Danny Espinosa (DH)
7. Gregor Blanco (LF)
8. Devin Mesoraco (C)
9. Amed Rosario (SS)

Starting Pitching: Jason Vargas

Other Things To Watch For:

1. Through Amed Rosario’s 6 games and 17 PA’s, he’s hitting .500/.588/1.071. Obvisously a small sample size.
2. This afternoon is Jeff McNeilk’s second game at third base signaling that the Mets are preparing to open the season without Frazier and without Lowrie. At some point the Mets will have to signal who the next outfielder to replace McNeil will be. We can assume right now it’s Lagares
3. Jason Vargas will get his third start of spring today. So far he has allowed 1 run off 5 hits and 2 walks in 4.1 innings. Following the pattern of other starters, its safe to assume the Mets will try to get him about 4 innings of work today.
4. Luis Avilan is listed as available out of the pen today and is having a spring that should be heading towards a roster spot. He’s pitched 5.2 innings in 5 games this year without allowing any runs and striking out 7.
5. Alonso is still smashing the baseball this spring with a .414/.469/.828 line over 32 PA’s and 10 games. That’s tremendous.

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s March 11th and the Mets still haven’t resolved their catcher situation yet, which I guess makes sense. Wilson Ramos will definitely be the starting catcher. It’s still unclear if the Mets will go with Devin Mesoraco or Travis d’Arnaud, who is still sorta rehabbing but getting into more games now as the back up catcher. Travis d’Arnaud is the offensive threat, Jacob deGrom is comfortable throwing to Mesoraco.

The Mets acquired Mesoraco in a early/mid-season trade for Matt Harvey. Devin did alright as a Met as the Mets just needed someone who could catch and be in the lineup reliably.

2018: 274 PA, 244 AB, 11 HR, .221/.303/.398, 0.6 WAR, 99 DRC+
Career: .232/.309/.406, 100 DRC+

From looking at his career line, Devin, according to DRC+ is a remarkably average player. Like exactly average. Here’s how computers project him:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

The average of the projections has Mesoraco getting on base at a similar clip and showing less power in 2019 which matches the trajectory of his career to this point. ESPN is really down on him, but ESPN was struggling to project playing time. ZiPS was also down on him, and they don’t really factor playing time.

Interestingly, BP is the most positive for his On Base Percentage, and they tend to be the most conservative of all of the projections we look at.

It’s still very unclear what the Mets are going to do with the catching situation right now. My gut tells me they are waiting / hoping for a team to get into a desperate situation and call them with a trade proposal. Or they could carry 3 catchers on their roster, which is a very Mets thing to do.

By now you’ve probably heard about the homer Pete Alonso hit yesterday. If you haven’t: it was his third of the spring, it went over the Green Monster South, it landed outside the ballpark, it was super impressive.

Yesterday’s Spring Training game just felt good for the Mets. They won 10-2 off 15 hits against the Red Sox with two hit performances by Nimmo, Alonso, JD Davis (actually 3 hits), Liriano and Guillorme (who continues to have an excellent spring, OPS is now at 1.187). Wheeler shut the Red Sox down for 4.0 innings only allowing a hit, Bashlor did the same thing for 2.0 innings behind him, and Rhame did the same thing for 1.0 innings behind him. Then there is Tim Peterson who is quietly having a dominant spring allowing no runs, no hits and a walk through 4.1 innings with 6 strikeouts. Things looked good for the Mets. Let’s see if they keep looking good today:

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (LF)
2. Jeff McNeil (3B)
3. Robinson Cano (1B)
4. Michael Conforto (RF)
5. Wilson Ramos (C)
6. Pete Alonso (DH)
7. Dominic Smith (1B)
8. Juan Lagares (CF)
9. Amed Rosario (SS)

Starting Pitcher: Steven Matz

Things To Watch For:

1. A couple of days ago the Mets said they would start to split Jeff McNeil’s time in the outfield and in the infield and we see that today with Jeff getting a start at third base.
2. In two starts and 4.2 innings this spring, Matz has allowed 8 hits and 5 runs leading to a WHIP of 2.143 and an ERA of 9.64. Obviously small sample size. If he follows the trend from other starters this week, goal will be to get him about 4.0 innings of work today.
3. In 19 PA’s across 7 games Ramos has hit .444/.474/.611. It’s just nice to read a line like that from a catcher.
4. With all of the NRI’s competing for time in the infield and Amed getting hit by a pitch on his hand, Amed has only been in 5 games this spring. During those 5 he has come up to the plate 15 times and has a .462/.533/.846 line.
5. Edwin Diaz is listed as available today. In his three spring games he has pitched 3.0 innings allowing 2 hits and 2 walks while striking out 3.

Let’s Go Mets!

This time last year the Mets weren’t sure that Brandon Nimmo was a starter. The fans were pretty sure, but the Mets had him tagged as a 4th outfielder. As the Mets got more an more injured, Nimmo’s playing time increased and he turned into a player that challenged Judge most of the season in OPS.

For Nimmo, the massive change last year was how often he walked and just got in base in general. It lead to a 123 DRC+, a leader on the Mets:

2018: 535 PA, 433 AB, 17 HR, .26w3/.404/.483, 4.8 WAR, 123 DRC+
Career: .264/.391/.449, 111 DRC+

Nimmo got on base more and hit for more pop and suddenly he became one of the most consistent, important pieces in the Mets lineup. By DRC+, Nimmo definitely broke out last year having a 92 and 84 DRC+ the previous seasons.

So where does Nimmo go from here?

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

For the most part, the computers have Nimmo taking a step back. Despite his average last year being close to his career mark, they having hitting on average 15 points lower and getting on base almost 30 points lower than his average clip. They still have contributing solidly to WAR, even if it’s much less and his DRC+ still puts him above average, but it’s a significant step down.

To be honest, I’m not sure what to make of this because I’m so enamored by Nimmo the person. My gut wants to say that all of these projections, with the exception of Baseball Reference are underestimating him, but it may be because I so deeply want him to succeed that it’s clouding my vision.

Conforto needs to have a big season, almost MVP like for the Mets to win the division this year. If Nimmo makes it tough to determine who the MVP of the team is, then the Mets will be in a very good place come September.

Here’s the good news about yesterday’s 10-3 loss to the Red Sox: several key Mets hit solo homers. Cano hit his first homer in a Mets uniform. McNeil finally got his first hit this Spring and it was a long homer. Gimenez, ranked as the #1 prospect in the Mets farm system by most prospect ranking outlets hit his first spring homer showing everyone his potential. Good day for those three. (And Avilan who is trying to get on the roster. He added another scoreless inning of work keeping his ERA to 0.00 this spring).

It just wasn’t a good day for almost everyone else. Syndergaard allowed 4 runs, 3 earned over 4.0 innings (but still struck out 8). Lugo allowed 4 runs, only 1 earned over 1.2 innings. Gsellman allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over an inning of work. Dominic Smith who had been doing very well this spring had his first o-for day adding 2 strikeouts to boot.

The Mets will look to move past yesterday as they head to the Red Sox this afternoon.

Mets Lineup:

1. Brandon Nimmo (CF)
2. Keon Broxton (LF)
3. Danny Espinosa (2B)
4. Pete Alonso (1B)
5. JD Davis (3B)
6. Tomas Nido (C)
7. Rymer Liriano (DH)
8. Luis Guillorme (SS)
9. Rajai Davis (RF)

Staring Pitcher: Zack Wheeler

Things To Watch For Today:

1. There was a common theme in going through the pitching lines from yesterday: unearned runs were not equal to earned runs. The Mets have committed 28 errors in 15 games so far. While it’s spring and that doesn’t matter for results, it does matter for pitcher preparedness. They are getting less clean inning opportunities because they are reaching their pitch totals for the day full innings before they were expected to, thanks to extra outs.
2. Wheeler will be making his third start of spring today. So far in 2.2 innings he has allowed 5 runs, 3 earned over 2.2 innings with a 2.625 WHIP. While he’s the victim of some bad defense, the WHIP lets us know that this line is his fault too. The Mets are hoping, I assume, to get him 3-4 innings today.
3. Injuries around the Mets infield have created opportunities for NRI guys and low depth chart roster players. Espinosa, in the former, has had 18 PA’s so far and has hit .071/.278/.286. Guillorme, in the latter, has had 22 PA’s so far and has hit .368/.455/.579. Both are starting today.
4. Rymer Liriano and Rajai Davis continue their competition this spring today with both getting starting spots in the in the lineup. Liriano, DHing, is hitting .130/.160/.261 in 25 PA’s. Davis is hitting .267/.389/.600 in 18 PA’s.
5. JD Davis is coming back down to Earth a bit the more he plays but he is still putting up a better spring line than expected, now hitting .267/.333/.433 in 33 PA’s.

Let’s Go Mets!

This post has taken a different turn since we had it originally planned before spring training. Before spring training, Juan Lagares was going to be the 4th outfielder, his projections were going to be seen through that lens and then the Mets would have some tough decisions to make about playing time once Cespedes got back and McNeil would end up being knocked around.

But with Lowrie and Frazier still injured, and the Mets without signing a big name outfielder, McNeil might have to spend more time in the infield than originally thought, meaning that Lagares and Broxton will spend more time starting in the outfield than originally thought.

As injury seasons go for Lagares 2018 was even worse than usual:

2018: 64 PA, 59 AB, 0 HR, .339/.375/.390, 1.0 WAR, 88 DRC+
Career: .260/.300/.367, 78 DRC+

Although it was a small sample size, it looked like Lagares, who spent the spring before last year retooling his swing, finally turned a corner and was turning into one of the more consistent hitters in the Mets lineup. But then he got hurt, again and this year the Mets actively prepared for him to get hurt again by bringing in Keon Broxton as back up.

Here are what computers think Juan will do this year:

(Citations: Baseball Prospectus (BP) projections are from the Baseball Prospectus annual which can you can get here. It’s highly recommended. ESPN projections can be found here. ZiPS can be found here. Steamer can be found here. Baseball Reference projections (BR) can found on the players BR page which linked elsewhere on this article. )

For the most part, the computers are not down with the idea of Juan Lagares coming back better than ever, with the exception of of ESPN. They think Juan is going to perform way above his average year numbers. Everyone else is peering into and weighing his injury history a lot.

Out of the Mets outfield options: Broxton, Rajai Davis, Liriano, Blanco and now Carlos Gomez, Juan Lagares is clearly the best option. This has never been the question this off-season. The question does he play well enough to be in the starting lineup when an outfielder needs a day off or early in the season when McNeil is needed in the infield. Only time will tell.