213 Miles From Shea

The Mets finally defeated the Braves in 2025! The Mets had a huge win Wednesday night finally beating the Braves and setting up the possibility to split the four game series this week. It’s been a rough two weeks for the Mets and getting two consecutive wins will go a long way mentally to stop the spiral and resume the dominance from earlier this month.

Griffin Canning has pitched 73 2/3 innings this season with a 3.91 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 1.412 WHIP and a 98 ERA+. He’s in the midst of a tough stretch allowing at least four runs in each of his last three starts (14 runs, 13 earned over 14 2/3 innings, 7.98 ERA, 5.32 FIP). Canning missed the Braves last week. He had a tough start against them in 2024 allowing seven runs from eight hits and two homers over 4 1/3 innings. The Braves have the following numbers against Canning:

• Nick Allen 1-2, K
• Michael Harris II 3-3, 2B
• Sean Murphy 1-4, K
• Matt Olson 4-18, 2B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
• Marcell Ozuna 4-5, 2 HR, BB
• Austin Riley 1-3
• Alex Verdugo 1-11, 2 K

Grant Holmes is having a solid second season in the majors. Over 16 games, 15 starts he has pitched 85 innings with a 3.71 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 1.224 WHIP and a 111 ERA+. He’s coming off a great start where he held the Marlins scoreless over 5 2/3 innings. Before that he allowed exactly three runs in each of four consecutive starts (20 2/3 innings, 4.79 ERA, 3.32 FIP). Holmes made one start against the Mets last year, but it was the second game in the season-ending double header right after the Mets clinched a wild card spot (4 IP, H, K). The Mets have the following career stats against Holmes:

• Pete Alonso 1-2, K
• Starling Marte 0-1, BB, K
• Brandon Nimmo 0-2, 2 K
• Juan Soto 0-1
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1
• Luis Torrens 0-1, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Juan Soto. Soto is having a June to remember, He’s hit five home runs in his last five games (7-for-17, 6 R, 5 HR, SB, 3 BB, 1.794 OPS). He’s now has a 3.5 bWAR and a 157 OPS+. If the season ended today, that would be his fourth best OPS+ for a season. It’s Juan Soto summer now and hopefully the Mets can ride the wave to split this series.
2. Hitting with RISP. The Mets have actually started to hit with RISP over the last two games going 7-for-13. While they still lost on Wednesday, this is a positive development for the Mets. They are now both getting runners into scoring position, and getting hits once they’re there. Throughout the current two week spiral, the Mets were struggling just to get runners on!
3. Sliders vs Four Seamers. The Mets already had to deal with Spencer Strider’s slider this week, now they need to handle Grant Holmes’ slider, which hitters have a .138 BA, .190 xBA against. It’s part of the reason why Holmes is in the 99th percentile for breaking ball run value. His four-seamer, which he uses 35.8% of the time (almost the same amount of time as his slider) is another story. Hitters are currently smashing his four seamer with a .352 BA, .325 xBA and .750 SLG. It’s currently in the second percentile for fastball run value.

Let’s Go Mets!

Tuesday night was another tough night for the Mets. They got a few hits with RISP early and took a 3-0 lead. Then the bullpen just imploded and the Braves scored seven runs, eventually winning the game 7-4. Super frustrating but today is another day and the Mets turn to Clay Holmes to right the ship.

Clay Holmes has pitched 83 innings this season with a 3.04 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.229 WHIP and a 125 ERA+. His last start against the Braves wasn’t great, where he allowed three runs from four hits and six walks over 4 2/3 innings, reaching 104 pitches early. It was the most pitches he has tossed in a game this season and by far the most amount of walks. In his two starts before that he allowed only two runs from 12 hits over 11 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Holmes:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-3, 2 BB
• Ozzie Albies 2-4, 2B, BB, K
• Nick Allen 1-2, 2B, K
• Drake Baldwin 0-1, 2 BB
• Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
• Michael Harris II 0-3
• Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
• Matt Olson 0-1, 2 BB
• Marcell Ozuna 1-5, BB, 2 K
• Austin Riley 1-6, 2 K
• Alex Verdugo 3-8, 4 BB, 2 K

The Mets bats will get a look at rookie Didier Fuentes who is coming off of his first career start against the Marlins last week. In that game he allowed four runs from six hits and a walk over five innings. In 2024 Fuentes pitched 75 2/3 innings in single A ball with a 2.74 ERA, 1.018 WHIP. This season he pitched 39 1/3 innings over nine starts and across three levels of minor league ball with a 4.81 ERA and a 1.119 WHIP.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Strikeouts. Mets hitters have been striking out at an increased rate over the last two weeks while the team has been spiraling. Part of it has been the level of starting pitching the Mets have been facing recently. Tuesday night the Mets struck out 14 times with six hitters striking out two times. Somehow the Mets still did well with RISP (4-for-7, six LOB). The Mets are facing a young prospect tonight with a live fastball, don’t make it easier for him tonight!
2. Fuentes pitch selection. Fuentes, a top-10 prospect for the Braves, has a mid-to-high 90’s fastball, high-80’s splitter, low-80’s sweeper and a high-70’s curveball. In his first start he leaned on his fastball nearly 60% of the time, and hitters had an expected batting average of .401 against it. Hitters struggled with his sweeper. Fuentes used his sweeper 18 times and no one got a hit against it (.198 xBA).
3. Groundball King. Clay Holmes gets hitters to produce groundballs 53.8% of the time (league average 42.6%). He’s in the 90th percentile according to Baseball Savant and it is the only under-the-hood metric that Holmes is doing well in right now. He’s been able to turn the groundball into a serious weapon. After his last start, he needs a night with a lot of grounders and quick innings.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets look to even the series with the Braves tonight after dropping the first game 3-2. The Braves scored three runs early and that was all they needed as they were able to keep the Mets from scoring for the vast majority of the game. The Mets have now lost nine of their last 10 games and are 1.5 games out of first place. They still are 13 games above .500 though.

Frankie Montas finally makes his Mets debut tonight! The righty had a high-grade right lat strain in spring training. In 30 starts last season he pitched 150 2/3 innings with a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, 1.367 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. His rehab assignment with the Mets has been rough allowing 25 runs from 30 hits and 10 walks in just 18 2/3 innings. There was a reason though why Stearns rushed to get him this off-season and Montas is healthy at a time where the Mets desperately need him. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Sean Murphy 2-3
• Matt Olson 2-4, BB
• Marcell Ozuna 1-5
• Austin Riley 1-2, HR, K
• Alex Verdugo 6-11, 3 2B, BB
• Eli White 0-4, K

What a week for Mets hitters. Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider, Chris Sale, Zack Wheeler, Spencer Schwenllenbach again and finally Spencer Strider again. Over seven starts (37 innings) Strider has a 3.89 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 1.135 WHIP and a 106 ERA+. He’s hit his groove in his last two starts allowing only one run from eight hits and two walks over 12 innings while striking out 21 batters. This includes six innings of one run ball against the Mets who have the following career stats against him:

• Pete Alonso 3-15, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Brett Baty 2-4, K
• Travis Jankowski 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 6-18, 3B, 3 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 2-10, 2 BB, 3 K
• Ronny Mauricio 1-2, K
• Jeff McNeil 3-16, 2B, 4 K
• Brandon Nimmo 9-19, 2 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K
• Juan Soto 3-10, 3 BB
• Tyrone Taylor 1-2, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Francisco Lindor. Lindor now has three consecutive games with two hits. After going hitless for five straight games Lindor has bounced back, collecting hits in bunches. He has gone 6-for-13 with a double and two home runs over his last three games. When we highlighted him yesterday, we talked about how no one is actually driving Lindor in, and that continued last night. Don’t waste Lindor’s hot streak!
2. The Mets Pitching Lab. We’ve seen time and time again the Mets pitching lab remake pitchers this season. In 2024 Montas threw a mid-90’s four seamer 33% of the time, a mid-90’s sinker (19.3%), low-90’s cutter (18.7%), mid-80’s splitter (18.3%) and a mid-80’s slider (10.7%). His best pitch was his splitter – opponents had a .242 xwOBA against it. Let’s see how the Mets are advising him to switch up his pitch mix tonight!
3. Adjustments. The Mets faced Strider less than a week ago and the Mets got some solid hits off of Strider, they just got a bit unlucky. For example, Lindor had 108.8 mph lineout with an xBA of .760 and a 97.5 mph lineout. Alonso had a 112.1 mph groundout that had an xBA of .400. He also had a single that went 112.5 mph off the bat. How do the Mets adjust to Strider? How does Strider adjust to Mets? Strider used his slider 41% of the time which was an increase compared to his season as a whole, and he barely showed the Mets his changeup and curveball. He normally rarely uses them (less than 10% combined) but last week he used them only 5% of the time.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are in a rough stretch right now. They have lost eight of their last nine games, including a seven game losing streak that they snapped back on Saturday. The good news is that they have hit 10 home runs in their last three games. The bad news is they lost two of those games, they were all solo home runs and seven of those homers happened in the same game (which isn’t technically bad news, but unfortunate news if you’re trying to win more than one game). Anyway tonight is another chance to reset themselves before they end of June as they welcome the Braves to Citi Field.

Paul Blackburn has totaled 13 innings over four games and two starts this season with a 6.92 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.692 WHIP and a 57 ERA+. In his first start of the season against the Dodgers he allowed no runs and only three hits over five innings. Since then he has allowed 11 runs, 10 earned, from 15 hits. This includes a start against the Braves last week where he allowed four runs, three earned over 3 2/3 innings. The Braves have the following career numbers against Blackburn:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 1-3, HR, BB
• Ozzie Albies 3-4, 2 2B, 3B
• Nick Allen 0-1
• Drake Baldwin 0-2, K
• Michael Harris II 0-4
• Sean Murphy 1-1, BB
• Matt Olson 0-3, BB, K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-3, K
• Austin Riley 2-3, BB, K
• Alex Verdugo 4-12, 2 2B

The Mets bats will try to get something going again against Spencer Schwellenbach. Last week the Mets scored four runs over seven innings thanks to two home runs against Schwellenbach, in a game the Mets eventually lost in extra-innings. Overall this season, Schwellenbach has pitched 96 2/3 innings over 15 starts with a 3.26 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 1.014 WHIP and a 126 ERA+. The Mets have the following career stats against Schwellenbach:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-2
• Pete Alonso 4-11, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 0-9, 2 K
• Starling Marte 0-3
• Ronny Mauricio 0-3, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 2-6, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 0-12, 4 K
• Juan Soto 1-2, HR, BB
• Tyrone Taylor 4-8, 2 2B, HR, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, 2 K
• Jared Young 0-3, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Lindor is back! After five consecutive games without a hit, Lindor has recorded two straight multi-hit games. Over his last two games Lindor has gone 4-for-9 at the plate with a double and two home runs. The problem for the Mets though is they aren’t really hitting when Lindor (or anyone) is on base, and the only runs Lindor has scored over the last two games are his own home runs.
2. Positive under-the-hood metrics for Paul Blackburn. Outside of his first start, Blackburn’s results have looked pretty bad season. There are some real positive statcast numbers for Blackburn though. Hitters are only getting hard hits against 27.1% of the time, which is near the top of the league (league averages is in the lower 40’s). This has been true for Blackburn throughout his four games. The average exit velocity for Blackburn is 87.3 mph (89.5 league average) and hitters are barrelling the ball 6.7% of the time (8.6 league average). Let’s see if that holds true when he faces the Braves for a second time.
3. Tyrone Taylor. Were you surprised by Taylor’s lifetime numbers against Schwellenbach? I was! We already know that Taylor is a major asset for the Mets in the field (94th percentile for fielding run value, 91st in range, 97th in arm value and 83rd in arm strength). While his hitting has left a lot to be desired, he’s doing somethings well. He is in the 99th percentile for launch angle sweet spot. While his batting average is .232, his expected batting average is .276!

Let’s Go Mets!

How good did Saturday’s game feel? The Mets finally broke their seven game losing streak with a solid 11-4 win over the Phillies thanks to an offensive revelation. The Mets broke out the lumber to slug seven solo home runs against the Phillies, forcing a rubber game tonight. Let’s take the series and and completely flip the narrative of the last week!

David Peterson has tossed 86 2/3 innings this season with a 2.60 ERA, 3.07 FIP, 1.188 WHIP and a 147 ERA+. Over three starts in June he has pitched 23 innings with a 2.35 ERA, 2.42 FIP. The highlight, of course, was his complete game shutout against the Nationals on June 11th. He’s now pitched seven innings or more in four of his last five starts, and at least six innings in six of his last eight. Peterson had a solid start against the Phillies in April holding them to two runs over 5 1/3 innings from eight hits and a walk. The Phillies have the following career numbers against Peterson:

• Alec Bohm 9-26, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Nick Castellanos 6-15, 2B, 4 K
• Buddy Kennedy 1-3, 2B
• Rafael Marchan 2-2
• Brandon Marsh 2-3, HR
• J.T. Realmuto 3-21, 2B, 3 BB, 4 K
• Johan Rojas 2-9, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Kyle Schwarber 2-21, 2B, 3 BB, 11 K
• Edmundo Sosa 3-5
• Bryson Stott 0-3, BB, K
• Trea Turner 4-22, 2 2B, 2 BB, 6 K

 Jesús Luzardo has had an interesting season to say the least. Over 15 starts and 83 2/3 innings he has a 4.41 ERA, 2.88 FIP, 1.434 WHIP and a 96 ERA+. Until the end of May, Luzardo was cruising, going deep into games, racking up strikeouts with a 2.15 ERA. Then over two starts he allowed 20 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings. He bounced back against the Cubs on June 11th, holding them one run but struggled his last time out allowing four runs against the Marlins.

Luzardo has not faced the Mets yet this season but last season he held the Mets to two runs over 11 2/3 innings across two starts. The Mets have the following career stats against the former-Marlin now-Phillie:

• Pete Alonso 2-22, HR, 10 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-5
• Brett Baty 1-3
• Francisco Lindor 4-18, 2 BB,3 K
• Starling Marte 4-11, 2 K
• Ronny Mauricio 0-2, BB, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 5-12, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 3-12, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 3 K
• Juan Soto 5-13, 2B, HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, K
• Luis Torrens 2-4, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Home runs. The Mets have hit nine home runs in this series, including seven of them Saturday night. It was enough to take the Mets from seventh in the majors back to sixth, which is where they’ve been for the last two seasons. They are also facing a pitcher tonight who has struggled in three of his last four starts. Keep the same game plan as Saturday night – slug some balls out of CBP and keep the pressure on the Phillies.
2. Mets All-Time Home Run Leaderboard. Alonso homered on Friday night, bringing him to 244 for his career, just eight behind Strawberry’s franchise leading 252. Brandon Nimmo homered twice Saturday night and Lindor homered once, bringing both of them to 125 career Mets home runs, which tied Lucas Duda for 9th on the all-time list. With Conforto at 132 career Mets home runs at 8th, the Mets top ten is going to look different at the end of this season.
3. Juan Soto. Sometimes Juan Soto does Juan Soto things. Saturday night Soto went 4-for-5 at the plate with two home runs. Friday night he went 0-for-2 with two walks. That means he’s already been on base six times this series!

Let’s Go Mets!

It has been a rough gauntlet for the Mets for the last eight days and they have not stepped up to the challenge. The Phillies beat the Mets Friday night extending their losing streak to seven games. The Mets were facing another tough starting pitcher in Zack Wheeler and had a chance in the first inning loading the bases, but grounded into a double play to end the inning without scoring runs. From that point on Wheeler looked like Wheeler and just mowed through the Mets lineup.

The Mets hit back-to-back solo homers off Taijuan Walker to tie the game, but then the Mets bullpen completely felly apart and the Mets lost 10-2. They just need to win one game to get back on the right track.

Griffin Canning has pitched 68 2/3 innings this season with a 3.80 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 1.398 WHIP and a 101 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start against the Rays where he allowed six runs from four hits and five walks over 4 1/3 innings. In total he’s allowed 10 runs over his last two starts. He was great though against the Phillies earlier this season holding them to only one run from seven hits and a walk over five innings. The Phillies have the following career numbers against him:

• Alec Bohm 2-5, K
• Nick Castellanos 2-11, 2B, 3B, 2 K
• Max Kepler 2-3, 2B, BB, K
• Brandon Marsh 0-0, BB
• J.T. Realmuto 1-2, 2B
• Johan Rojas 1-3, BB, K
• Kyle Schwarber 2-5, BB
• Bryson Stott 2-5
• Trea Turner 1-5, K

The Mets bats will try to break out of their funk against rookie right-hander Mick Abel. The former top-100 prospect is off to a good start, pitching 20 1/3 innings over four games with a 2.21 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 1.033 WHIP and a 194 ERA+. In three of his four starts he has allowed zero or one runs. The other start was against the Cubs, the best offense he has faced so far, where he allowed three solo home runs. Abel has not thrown beyond 89 pitches yet in a major league game this season, and has gone any where between four and six innings of work.

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Flash some power. There was a modicum of hope Friday night when Alonso and McNeil both homered. The Mets love hitting homers in Philly. Abel has been hit hard, at home when facing a lineup with some pop. Start the game with a bang and get the momentum again Mets!
2. Francisco Lindor. Speaking of starting the game with a bang, the Mets need Lindor to be Lindor. His hitless streak stretched to a fifth game Friday night. He has now gone 0-for-18 with two walks in his last five games and is slashing .188/.264/.250 since breaking his pinky toe.
3. Brett Baty. From May 9th to May 31st Baty played in 20 games slashing .310/.355/.621 collecting 18 hits in 62 trips to the plate including five home runs. June has not been as kind to Baty. Over 15 games he has gone .125/.189/.250 with only six hits in 53 plate appearances (including two home runs). The Mets need May Baty back!

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are now entering the most consequential stretch of games this season. The Mets have lost six straight games, including being swept by the Braves. They enter play today 15 games above .500 tied with the Phillies. Next on their schedule are three games against the Phillies followed by four more games against the Braves. A solid week, starting tonight, can quickly erase last week from our memories. A difficult week could turn this month into a June swoon.

The current Mets pitching situation is making things even more difficult for the Mets. The Mets had to burn Justin Hagenman Thursday night, who was slated to be the spot starter today. Luckily the Mets had a backup plan in Blade Tidwell.

Blade Tidwell made his major league debut about six weeks ago against the Cardinals on May 4th where he allowed six runs from nine hits and three walks over 3 2/3 innings. Things have looked better for Tidwell in Syracuse where he has pitched 62 1/3 innings over 13 games (11 starts) with a 4.76 ERA, 1.267 WHIP. He is coming off of a rough start on June 15th where he allowed six runs from seven hits over 3 2/3 innings.

The Mets bats have been in bad place this week and the matchups haven’t done them any favors. In the last three games they have faced Spencer Schwellenbach, Chris Sale, Spencer Strider and now Zack Wheeler. Wheeler is having another tremendous season, pitching 88 innings with a 2.76 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 0.886 WHIP and a 151 ERA+. He’s allowed three runs, two earned over his last two starts (12 innings) while striking out 16 batters. Earlier this season he allowed two runs over six innings from five hits against the Mets. The Mets have the following career numbers against Wheeler:

• Luisangel Acuña 1-3
• Pete Alonso 10-40, 2 2B, 2 BB, 12 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-4, BB, 2 K
• Brett Baty 4-10, HR, 2 K
• Francisco Lindor 9-33, 2B, 3B, HR, 2 BB, 6 K
• Starling Marte 7-25, 2B, 3B, BB
• Ronny Mauricio 1-3, K
• Jeff McNeil 7-33, 2 BB, 8 K
• Brandon Nimmo 13-49, 3 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 2 BB, 8 K
• Juan Soto 14-53, 2 2B, 3 HR, 14 BB, 15 K
• Tyrone Taylor 2-12

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Mets bats. The offense has has looked terrible this past week. Wednesday the Mets only got one hitter beyond first base. Thursday they went 1-for-8 with RISP and struck out an astounding 13 times. Five players struck out twice. The last time Wheeler faced the Mets he struck out 9 batters. The Mets just need to relax at the plate and remember their strengths.
2. Doubles are a strength. Despite the Mets difficult time at the plate recently, they are still sixth in the league in doubles with Nimmo and Marte adding doubles Thursday night. They have 279 doubles on the season, just one behind the Blue Jays.
3. Francisco Lindor. The Mets need their leader right now. He’s gone hitless in four consecutive games (0-for-14) with two walks and four strikeouts. Since breaking his pinky toe, He’s gone 9-for-44 with three extra-base hits (no home runs) and five walks, slashing .205/.286/.273. Lets hope he starts returning to his normal career numbers tonight!

Let’s Go Mets!

It’s been a tough week for the Mets. The Braves beat the Mets 5-0 and have a chance to sweep the Mets tonight in Atlanta. It would be the second consecutive series being swept for the Mets. Wednesday night was a night to forget for the Mets who only squeaked out five hits and a walk. They went 0-for-1 with runners in scoring position. The Mets just need one good game to get the offense roaring again.

Clay Holmes looks to play the role of stopper tonight. Over 14 starts this season Holmes has pitched 78 1/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 1.174 WHIP and a 132 ERA+. Over his last two starts he has allowed two runs from 12 hits and two walks over 11 innings. Both runs were scored on solo home runs which has been the only weakness in his game as of late. All nine home runs he’s allowed this season have happened since May 9th. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-1, BB
• Ozzie Albies 1-2, 2B, BB
• Stuart Fairchild 0-1, 2 BB
• Michael Harris II 0-1
• Sean Murphy 0-2, 2 K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-2, BB, K
• Austin Riley 0-3, K
• Alex Verdugo 3-6, 3 BB, K

Spencer Strider has mostly had a rough return from injury. Over 31 innings he has a 4.35 ERA, 4.32 FIP, 1.161 WHIP and a 94 ERA+ while striking out 37 batters. That being said, he’s coming off of a classic Strider start where he held the Rockies scoreless over six innings, scattering three hits while striking out 13. It was by far his best start of the season. His previous best start was 4 2/3 innings against the Phillies, allowing one run from one hit and four walks while striking out seven. The Mets have the following career numbers against Strider:

• Pete Alonso 2-12, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 7 K
• Francisco Alvarez 1-5, HR, BB, 3 K
• Brett Baty 2-4, K
• Francisco Lindor 6-16, 3B, 2 BB, 2 K
• Starling Marte 2-7, 2 BB, 3 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-13, 2B, 2 K
• Brandon Nimmo 8-16, 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 3 BB, 2 K
• Juan Soto 2-7, 3 BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Spencer Strider’s Slider. Strider has a devastating slider, but it has been widely reported it’s just not the same since his surgery. Right now it’s average 83.8 mph, before the injury it was 85-86 mph. So far he’s using it around the same amount that he used to (about a third of the time). Will he eventually need to change his pitch mix? For tonight, the Mets need to see how it moves and hopefully they can take advantage of a slightly slower slider.
2. Brandon Nimmo. Nimmo has fantastic numbers against Spencer Strider. He’s hitting .500/.579/1.063 against Strider over his career with 16 at-bats. Nimmo has a 112 OPS+ this season, a slight improvement over his 107 OPS+ from last season, but still a far cray from the four years from 2020-2023 where he was hitting with at least a 128 OPS+.
3. Jeff McNeil. Jeff’s single Wednesday night extended his on base streak to 20 games. Over his on-base streak he has hit .300/.367/.571 with 21 hits and nine extra-base hits raising his season line from .226/.355/.435to .265/.361/.508. For context, John Olerud has the longest Mets on-base streak at 47 games set between the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets are sliding right now, and not in the fun, playground type of way. The Braves handed the Mets their fourth consecutive loss, this time in extra-innings as the Mets couldn’t hold onto their early lead and let it slip away in the 8th inning. The Mets have also been bitten by the injury bug this past week adding Tylor Megill to the injured list. This gives Paul Blackburn a chance to join the rotation today and play the role of stopper against Chris Sale.

Paul Blackburn has allowed seven runs over 9 1/3 innings from 14 hits and two walks since rejoining the Mets. He looked fantastic in his first start, allowing no runs from three hits over five innings against the high-powered Dodgers lineup. He allowed three runs in relief in his next start, and then added another four runs in relief last Friday. Atlanta has the following career numbers against Blackburn:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 0-2
• Ozzie Albies 1-2, 2B
• Michael Harris II 0-2
• Sean Murphy 1-1, BB
• Matt Olson 0-1, BB, K
• Marcell Ozuna 0-2, K
• Austin Riley 2-2
• Alex Verdugo 3-10, 2 2B

The Mets bats will try to get back on the right track tonight against Chris Sale. Over 80 2/3 innings, Sale has a 2.79 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 1.215 WHIP and a 146 ERA+. He’s been on a roll over his last five starts allowing only four runs from 19 hits over 33 innings (1.09 ERA, 2.52 FIP). He had one start against the Mets in 2024 where he allowed two runs from two hits over 7 1/3 innings. The Mets have the following career stats against Sale:

• Pete Alonso 0-5, 3 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-2
• Francisco Lindor 14-34, 2 2B, 2 HR, BB, 7 K
• Starling Marte 0-3, 2 K
• Jeff McNeil 3-6, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 1-4, K
• Juan Soto 1-7, HR, 6 K
• Tyrone Taylor 0-1, BB

Three Things To Watch For:

1. Jeff McNeil. McNeil has gone 20-for-67 with six walks over his 19 games with an insane (for him) nine extra-base hits. If McNeil gets on base tonight he will extend his on-base streak to 20 games. Jeff McNeil was a question mark going into this season with Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio all ready to join the team. McNeil has shown the best version of himself for about a month now and may be the x-factor the team needs in the long run.
2. The Mets are hitting bombs! Juan Soto and Tyrone Taylor each hit home runs Tuesday night. That was enough for the Mets to leapfrog the Athletics on the home run leaderboard. The Mets are sitting in sixth with 93 home runs this season, behind the Cubs (99) and ahead of the Athletics (92). The Mets finished last season 6th in home runs as well. Similar to last season, the Mets are accomplishing this with a balanced lineup, with four hitters already at double digit blasts for the season (Alonso, Lindor, Soto, and Nimmo). Brett Baty (8) is one terrific day at the plate away from joining them.
3. Blackburn’s small sample sizes. Blackburn has only tossed 9 1/3 innings, and the majority of his work came in one great start against the Dodgers. In his small body of work, he’s been having success a lot of success limiting getting hit hard. The league wide average for hard-hit% is 40.9%, with an 8.5 Barrel%. Blackburn has a 28.6% hard-hit% and hitters barreled the ball against him only 5.7% of the time.

Let’s Go Mets!

The Mets have an important ten game stretch starting tonight where they play the Braves, the Phillies and then the Braves again. The Mets look to shake off a rough weekend against the Rays. The Mets lost a massive lead in the first game, left runners on in the second game and just got overwhelmed on Sunday.

This is also a huge stretch of games for the Braves who are eight games below .500 and need two strong series against the Mets to restart their season. They are coming off of a winning series against the Rockies, but they lost Sunday 10-1.

David Peterson looks to right the ship tonight in Atlanta. Over 79 2/3 innings he has a 2.49 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 1.192 WHIP and a 153 ERA+ (all career bests). He’s coming off of the strongest start of his career – a complete game shutout against the Nationals, holding them to six hits and only needing 106 pitches to get it done. It was his third game in his last four where he pitched at least seven innings and his sixth in his last seven games going at least six innings. Peterson faced Atlanta once in 2024 allowing four runs over five innings while striking out seven batters. The Braves have the following career numbers against him:

• Ronald Acuña Jr. 5-18, 2B, HR, 5 BB, 6 K
• Ozzie Albies 2-12, K
• Stuart Fairchild 1-4
• Michael Harris II 1-10, 2B, 4 K
• Sean Murphy 0-4, K
• Matt Olson 4-16, 4 HR, 3 BB, 8 K
• Marcell Ozuna 3-17, 2 HR, BB, 6 K
• Austin Riley 9-23, 3 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
• Alex Verdugo 0-3, BB, 2 K
• Luke Williams 1-8, 3 K

The Mets bats will get a look at Spencer Schwellenbach, who is also making his first start since pitching a complete game. In Schwellenbach’s last start he allowed two runs from five hits while striking out nine over nine innings against the Brewers. This season he has pitched 89 2/3 innings with a 3.11 ERA, 3.18 FIP, 1.004 WHIP and a 131 ERA+. Schwellenbach this season has either been great or bad. In his last five starts, he either allowed two runs or fewer (twice) or four runs (three times).

Schwellenbach unfortunately put up tremendous numbers against the Mets in 2024, holding the Mets to two runs, scattering nine hits and a walk over 21 innings while striking out 20. The Mets have the following career stats against Schwellenbach:

• Luisangel Acuña 0-2
• Pete Alonso 2-8, 2B, BB, 2 K
• Francisco Alvarez 0-5, K
• Francisco Lindor 0-6
• Starling Marte 0-3
• Jeff McNeil 1-3, 2B
• Brandon Nimmo 0-9, 3 BB
• Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, 2 K
• Luis Torrens 0-2, 2 K

Three Things To Watch For:

1. The Acuña Brothers. Last September Ronald and Luisangel did a jersey swap to celebrate both being on major league rosters at the same time. This week is the first time both brothers may play each other in an official major league game. Ronald is back from rehabbing a major knee injury and is picking up right where he left off slashing .390/.478/.701 (1.179 OPS, 226 OPS+) over his first 21 games and is worth 1.6 bWAR already. Stealing bases is the only the thing he hasn’t really tried yet, only stealing one since returning. Luisangel has made an impact with his glove and on the bases for the Mets with 11 stolen bases this season. He’s also coming off of a solid game where he went 2-for-3 at the plate with a walk.
2. The top of the Mets lineup. When the top of the lineup hits, the Mets generally do great things. Sunday was characteristically off day for the Mets one-through-four hitters, going a combined 1-for-14 with three walks (all walks from Soto). Hopefully the travel day allowed the Mets to clear their head and come back tonight renewed and refreshed.
3. Juan Soto is on pace to crush the Mets walk record. John Olerud set a franchise record for walks in 1999 with 125. He played every game that season and had 5.6 bWAR. Soto has a major league leading 60 walks right now, or about 0.845 walks per game played. Over an entire season that is about 135 walks. That wouldn’t even be a career best for Soto who had 135 walks in 2022 and 145 walks in 2021.

Let’s Go Mets!