Game Preview: Mets @ Braves

The Mets and NL East reunion tour returns tonight as the Mets travel south to Atlanta. Previously: the Mets squared off against the NL East almost exclusively in April and early May, and not much since then. In the last week week they’ve had a 4 game sweep of the Marlins and took 2 of 3 from the Nationals. Now they get to play the division leaders.

Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Amazin’s tonight. He is 9-6 over 22 starts and 139.1 innings with a 4.20 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.220 WHIP and 98 ERA+. In two starts in August he has pitched 15.0 scoreless innings holding opponents to 12 hits and a walk while striking out 12. His two starts against Atlanta have been quite different. In April he allowed 2 runs over 6.0 innings fom 6 hits and 3 walks while striking out 8. At the time, this was his best start of the season. In June he allowed 5 runs, 4 earned over 6.0 innings from 10 hits and 2 walks. After that start he went on a bit of a positive streak. Including tonight, all 3 of his starts against the Braves have taken place in Atlanta. The Braves have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Max Fried who is 13-4 over 24 games and 22 starts with 120.1 innings of work. Throughout the season he’s posted a 4.11 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 1.371 WHIP and 111 ERA+. In his last five starts he has alternated terrible/below average with pretty good:

  • 5.0 IP, 11 H, 5 ER
  • 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER
  • 5.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER
  • 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER
  • 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER

Which puts the Mets in a tougher situation tonight if the pattern, that is probably cosmic coincidence more than anything else, holds. He faced the Mets twice in June and was pretty average, allowing 5 runs over 11.0 innings from 16 hits. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Nationals vs Mets

The Mets go for a Sunday Day win, a series sweep, and their 9th win in a row today as they finish their set with the Nationals. For the second time in two nights the Mets beat the Nationals yesterday by coming back from being down, twice! The Nationals struck early on a two run shot by Soto and took the air out of the ballpark. A few innings later Davis and Ramos went back to back, re-energizing the 43,000+ in attendance, the second most attended game of the year. Soto then homered, again, giving the Nats the lead until Luis Guillorme played unlikely hero, tying the game up with a solo shot before the Mets went ahead for good. The team did not quit. The ballpark was electric. We get to do it all again today!

Jacob deGrom makes his 24th start of the season tonight. He has pitched 143.0 innings with a 2.77 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 1.070 WHIP and 149 ERA+. In his last 14 games and 91.0 innings he has posted a 2.08 ERA, with opponents hitting with a .215 BA, .262 OBP and .591 OPS against him. In his last 6 games he has pitched 40.0 innings with a 1.35 ERA while opponents are hitting a .186 BA, .253 OBP and .525 OPS. In two starts against the Nationals this season he has allowed 1 run over 12.0 innings. The Nationals have the following numbers against deGrom:

The Met bats close out the series against Anibal Sanchez who is 7-6 over 21 starts and 112.2 innings this year posting a 3.67 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 1.314 WHIP and 125 ERA+. Sanchez is coming off a good start in San Francisco where he allowed 2 runs, 1 earned over 6.0 innings. In his last 5 games he has pitched pretty much to his season line posting a 3.72 ERA over 29.0 innings with opponents batting with a .252 BA, .306 OBP and .715 OPS against him. Anibal started against the Mets once this year, tossing 1.1 innings allowing a hit and a walk before tweaking his hamstring and landing on a short IL stint. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Nationals vs Mets

Last night was one of the most memorable Mets games since 2015. Down three runs in the 4th, the Mets hit back to back homers (Alonso and Davis) to tie the game up. The Mets went into the bottom of the 9th down three runs, again. Two quick hits and Todd Frazier came up and sent a ball 437 feet down the line above where GKR were calling the game. Tie game. Then Conforto later in the inning hit a ball deep into the outfield to win the game! It was the first time the Mets won after trailing in the 8th inning all season.

You probably knew all of this, but it was just fun to rehash it.

Tonight Noah Syndergaard looks to keep the series moving in the right direction. Noah is 8-5 over 22 starts and 141.0 innings with a 3.96 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.206 WHIP and 104 ERA+. In his last five starts he has pitched 35.1 innings allowing 9 runs, 7 earned from 27 hits and 8 walks while striking out 39 batters. This has translated to a 1.78 ERA and opponents having a .209 BA, .257 OBP and .559 OPS against Syndergaard. So far Syndergaard has faced the Nationals three times this season totaling 20.0 innings with a 3.60 ERA. The Nationals have the following stats against Noah:

The Mets bats draw Patrick Corbin, the big off-season acquisition for the Nationals. On the season he is 9-5 over 23 starts and 141.2 innings with a 3.43 ERA, 3.25 FIP, 1.172 WHIP and 134 ERA+. He’s coming off of a rough start where he allowed 5 runs over 5.1 innings and in his last five games he has pitched 28.1 innings with a 3.81 ERA while opponents have a .266 BA, .328 OBP and .750 OPS against him. In four games against the Mets this year he has been his average season self, pitching 25.0 innings with a 3.60 ERA. Two games have good, one was great and the other was pretty terrible. But these games were in April and May and the Mets (and the Nationals) are both different teams from that point. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Nationals vs Mets

In 2015 the Mets went on an incredible run to take the division title that was started with an early August series with the Nationals and completed in an earlyish September series with the Nationals. It may be the Wild Card this time, but there are shades of the 2015 run here. The Mets, winners of 13 of their last 14 square off with the Nationals in a critical 3 game set.

Marcus Stroman makes his second Mets start tonight. He is 6-11 over 22 starts and 129.0 innings with a 3.07 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 1.256 WHIP and 147 ERA+. His debut wasn’t great with the Mets but he battled through 4.1 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks. The Nationals now have quite a few AL hitters on their roster, so there are more players than I originally expected having a “significant” amount of PA’s against Stroman:

The Mets bats will look to continue knocking those home runs over the wall against Stephen Strasburg who has allowed 16 so far this season. Stephen leads the league in wins (if you care about that) with a 14-5 record over 23 starts and 145.1 innings posting a 3.72 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 1.080 WHIP, and a 123 ERA+. He is coming off of his worst start of the season, allowing 9 runs over 4.2 innings, which raised his ERA from 3.26 to 3.72. Before that, in July, he had a 1.14 ERA over 5 starts and 31.2 innings (which was great considering he had a 5.70 ERA in 30.0 innings in June).

Against the Mets he has literally ran the gambit of below expectations, exceeding expectations and just meeting expectations. In his first start of the season he allowed 4 runs over 6.0 innings. Then, his very next start, he shut the Mets out over 6.2 innings. A month later he allowed 3 runs over 7.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Stephen:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Marlins vs Mets

1.5 Games Back.

The Mets are only 1.5 games back in the Wild Card Race! Winners of 12 of their last 13, the Mets won last night thanks to another great post trade-deadline start from Wheeler, Ramos’ big bat and an Alonso jack to boot. Now the Mets have one more matinee game against the Marlins before an off-day and then a much tougher schedule.

Steven Matz is 6-7 over 22 games and 20 starts tossing 103.2 innings with a 4.60 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 1.399 WHIP and 89 ERA+. He’s coming off a rough start where he fell apart after a couple of strong innings, allowing 5 runs over 3.2 innings from 6 hits and a walk. Before that start in the month of July he allowed only 4 runs over 20.0 innings with opponents hitting against him with a .266 OBP and .629 OPS. In two starts against the Marlins this year he has tossed 9.0 innings against them allowing 5 runs, but 3 earned off 2 homers, 11 hits and 2 walks while striking out 9. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Jordan Yamamoto. Does that sound familiar? He was originally supposed to start the game yesterday, listed as a probable pitcher early in the morning before the Marlins called up Hector Noesi. The 23 year-old rookie (Yamamoto) is 4-2 over his first 9 starts in the majors with a 3.94 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.042 WHIP and 106 ERA+. Since July 21st he has hit his first rough patch as a major league player. He has made three starts pitching 14.0 innings allowing 13 hits and 15 runs with opponents getting on base at a .323 clip and hitting a .841 OPS. Before this tumble, he was enjoying a 1.59 ERA. .258 Opponent OBP and .418 Opponent OPS over 6 starts and 34.0 innings. This will be his first start against the Mets.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Marlins vs Mets

The Mets, HAVE A WINNING RECORD. The Mets swept the Marlins in a single-admission double header yesterday pushing them to 1-game above .500 and for the first time in forever, a positive run differential. In game one deGrom led the way and the Mets offense provided enough offense to bring the team back to .500. Then in the nightcap the Mets took an early lead only to see it fade away in the middle in the game. Conforto and Alonso said not fast, hit a homer each late putting the Mets ahead!

Now the Mets look to continue the good vibes with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Wheeler is 8-6 over 21 starts and 131.1 innings with a 4.45 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.226 WHIP and a 92 ERA+. In his first start coming off the IL he was great through the first five innings, and then allowed 3 runs in the 6th to to finish the game with a 5.1 IP, 3 ER line. Last time out he shut the White Sox down, throwing 7.0 scoreless innings. Against the Marlins back in May he allowed 2 runs over 7.0 innings from 9 hits and a walk while striking out 11. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

The Mets bats will get a look at Jordan Yamamoto. The 23 year-old rookie is 4-2 over his first 9 starts in the majors with a 3.94 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 1.042 WHIP and 106 ERA+. Since July 21st he has hit his first rough patch as a major league player. He has made three starts pitching 14.0 innings allowing 13 hits and 15 runs with opponents getting on base at a .323 clip and hitting a .841 OPS. Before this tumble, he was enjoying a 1.59 ERA. .258 Opponent OBP and .418 Opponent OPS over 6 starts and 34.0 innings. This will be his first start against the Mets.

Let’s Go Mets!

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Double Header Game Preview: Mets @ Marlins

Leave it to the Marlins to make things complicated. At 5:30 in the morning, when this article was written, they had not announced in any capacity who is starting today, leaving us to guess right now who their starters will be and in what order. I usually criticize the Mets for doing the same thing but thankfully they announced their intentions a while ago to send Jacob deGrom during the first game and Walker Lockett in the night cap.

The Mets are coming off of an exciting weekend in Pittsburgh where they took the series and come back to Queens only 3 games out of the wild card. Their schedule gets more difficult after the Marlins and even the Marlins aren’t a walk in the park, playing slightly below .500 baseball since the All-Star break.

Jacob deGrom will pitch first for the Mets. He is 6-7 over 22 starts and 136.0 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.081 WHIP and 147 ERA+. In deGrom’s last 13 starts he has pitched 84.0 innings with a 2.04 ERA. In his last four starts he has pitched 26.0 innings with a 0.69 ERA and an opponents on base percentage of .267. There’s really not much to say about deGrom outside of pontificating on his stat line, marveling at how he does it. This will be his fifth start against the Marlins this season. So far he has 3.00 ERA over 24.0 innings, a mix of good starts and bad starts. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

Walker Lockett returns to New York for the night cap. There was a chance that Walker was going to become a permanent fixture of the rotation if the Mets traded Wheeler or Matz at the deadline but that didn’t happen and Walker is up as the extra man for the double header. He has made three starts this year for the Mets pitching 12.2 innings allowing 11 runs posting a 7.82 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 1.421 WHIP and 54 ERA+. His last start was by far the best where he allowed 1 run over 5.0 innings against the Giants in the only game the Mets won during that series. This will be his first start against the Marlins.

Here’s where things get tricky. As of right now we are pretty sure Sandy Alcantara is pitching today, we just don’t know which game and we think Robert Dugger is going to make his major league debut for the Marlins today. Let’s start with the rookie. Dugger was acquired by the Marlins back in the Dee Gordon trade with the Mariners (back when the Mariners gave prospects instead of taking them) is currently ranked 24 on MLB Pipeline for the fish. It’s been a tail of two seasons for him. In AA, he has a 3.31 ERA over 13 games and 70.2 innings while posting a 1.104 WHIP. But in AAA he has a 9.34 ERA over 7 games and 35.2 innings with a 1.879 WHIP. Of course, take AAA numbers in the PCL with a grain of salt but that’s some serious struggle right there. Overall in the minors in 413.2 innings he has a respectable/good WHIP of 1.235 and a K/BB of 3.33.

The Mets bats should also see Sandy Alcantara today who is coming off of a rough start at the end of July. He is 4-10 over 21 starts and 123.0 innings with a 4.54 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.480 WHIP and 91 ERA+. In his last four starts he has allowed 19 runs over 21.2 innings (7.89 ERA) and opponents are getting on base at a .394 clip. He’s been mixed against the Mets this year in two starts he has allowed a total of 8 runs in 11.2 innings from 17 hits. In the other start he tossed a complete game shutout holding the Mets to 2 hits and a walk. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Pirates

The Mets look to take the rubber game of their series with the Pirates after evening the series 1-1 last night with a come back win. Stroman struggled but battled in his debut and Wilson Ramos had a break out game as a Met with 4 hits and 6 RBI’s. Edwin Diaz made things a bit closer in the 9th, allowing a 2 run homer to bring the Pirates within in 2 (the inning had shades of last Sunday’s game against the Pirates) but the Mets held on and now look to Syndergaard to lead them out of Pittsburgh with a win.

Noah Syndergaard is 705 over 21 starts and 134.0 innings with a 4.10 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 1.239 WHIP and 100 ERA+. In his last fours tarts he has tossed 28.1 innings allowing 8 runs, 6 earned, for a 1.91 ERA while striking out 36. During this stretch opponents have a .278 OBP against him with a .612 OPS. In each game he has pitched at least 7.0 innings and this streak has lowered his season ERA from 4.68 to 4.10. Noah missed the Pirates last week and only three players on the Pirates roster have ever seen him in a major league game:

The Mets bats will look to take down Joe Musgrove today, who is 8-9 over 23 games and 22 starts over 121.1 innings posting a 4.23 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 1.195 WHIP and 103 ERA+. Joe had a July with a couple of bad starts, a couple of average starts and one good start, but not in a pattern that makes sense to evaluate. He ended June with a 4.27 ERA and ended July with a 4.23, so his July basically averages out to his season. He missed the Mets last week but faced them last year in Pittsburgh where he allowed only 1 run off 5 hits and 2 walks in 7.0 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Joe:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Pirates

The Mets winning streak finally came to an end last night and tonight they’ll try to start a new one with Marcus Stroman‘s first start as a Met. Last Sunday we got the bizarre news after the Mets beat the Pirates that the Mets were going to acquire Stroman. Since then there have been a ton of think pieces about “what are the Mets doing?”, “are the Mets buyers?”, “should the Mets lean into 2019?”, “should the Mets sell?”. Finally we get actually see Stroman on the mound.

For the Mets, they continue a recent tradition of finding players from Long Island, which is fine! Keep it local! Marcus Stroman is 6-11 this year over 21 starts and 124.2 innings with a 2.96 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.227 WHIP and 153 ERA+. In his last two starts he has pitched 14.0 innings allowing 1 run and in his last 7 games he has pitched 43.0 innings with a 2.30 ERA. A few Pirates have seen Stroman before:

The Mets bats get a look at Chris Archer again who is 3-8 over 19 games and 101.2 innings with a 5.58 ERA, 5.73 FIP, 1.436 WHIP and a 78 ERA+. He’s coming off of a start against the Mets where he allowed 6 runs, 5 earned over 5.0 inning with most of the damage coming in the first inning. In the month of July, Archer made 5 starts totaling 28.0 innings with a 5.79 ERA allowing 7 homers. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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Game Preview: Mets @ Pirates

The Mets roll into Pittsburgh tonight on a 7 game win streak coming off back to back sweeps including a sweep of the Pirates last weekend. Yesterday the Mets had a dominate start from Zack Wheeler, bullpen that that kept the clean sheet and an offense that did just enough to push the Mets into the win column. The Pirates on the other hand come into the weekend with multiple players suspended (appeals pending) including their manager hanging over their heads. One team is unified by winning, the other by fighting, what’s going to happen next?

Steven Matz is 6-6 over 21 games and 19 starts with 100.0 innings of work with a 4.32 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 1.380 WHIP with a 95 ERA+ (same mark as last year). Matz is coming off of his best start of his career – a complete game shutout against the Pirates, allowing only 5 hits and no walks over the corse of the game while striking out 7. In the month of July he has lowered his ERA from 4.95 down to 4.32, with an ERA of 1.80 in 20.0 innings. In that stretch batters are getting on base at a .266 clip with a .629 OPS. The Pirates have the following numbers against Matz:

The Mets will get another look at Trevor Williams tonight. He is 3-4 over 15 starts and 88.2 innings with a 4.87 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 1.320 WHIP and a 90 ERA+. He had an average outing his last time out against the Mets, allowing 3 runs from 2 homers over 7.0 innings from 4 hits and 2 walks. And now in his last two starts he has allowed 5 runs, 4 earned over 12.0 innings. That being said, in his last 6 starts he has allowed 29 runs, 28 earned, over 34.2 innings. The Mets have the following numbers against Trevor:

Let’s Go Mets!

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