Double Header Game Preview: Mets @ Marlins

Leave it to the Marlins to make things complicated. At 5:30 in the morning, when this article was written, they had not announced in any capacity who is starting today, leaving us to guess right now who their starters will be and in what order. I usually criticize the Mets for doing the same thing but thankfully they announced their intentions a while ago to send Jacob deGrom during the first game and Walker Lockett in the night cap.

The Mets are coming off of an exciting weekend in Pittsburgh where they took the series and come back to Queens only 3 games out of the wild card. Their schedule gets more difficult after the Marlins and even the Marlins aren’t a walk in the park, playing slightly below .500 baseball since the All-Star break.

Jacob deGrom will pitch first for the Mets. He is 6-7 over 22 starts and 136.0 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 1.081 WHIP and 147 ERA+. In deGrom’s last 13 starts he has pitched 84.0 innings with a 2.04 ERA. In his last four starts he has pitched 26.0 innings with a 0.69 ERA and an opponents on base percentage of .267. There’s really not much to say about deGrom outside of pontificating on his stat line, marveling at how he does it. This will be his fifth start against the Marlins this season. So far he has 3.00 ERA over 24.0 innings, a mix of good starts and bad starts. The Marlins have the following numbers against him:

Walker Lockett returns to New York for the night cap. There was a chance that Walker was going to become a permanent fixture of the rotation if the Mets traded Wheeler or Matz at the deadline but that didn’t happen and Walker is up as the extra man for the double header. He has made three starts this year for the Mets pitching 12.2 innings allowing 11 runs posting a 7.82 ERA, 4.80 FIP, 1.421 WHIP and 54 ERA+. His last start was by far the best where he allowed 1 run over 5.0 innings against the Giants in the only game the Mets won during that series. This will be his first start against the Marlins.

Here’s where things get tricky. As of right now we are pretty sure Sandy Alcantara is pitching today, we just don’t know which game and we think Robert Dugger is going to make his major league debut for the Marlins today. Let’s start with the rookie. Dugger was acquired by the Marlins back in the Dee Gordon trade with the Mariners (back when the Mariners gave prospects instead of taking them) is currently ranked 24 on MLB Pipeline for the fish. It’s been a tail of two seasons for him. In AA, he has a 3.31 ERA over 13 games and 70.2 innings while posting a 1.104 WHIP. But in AAA he has a 9.34 ERA over 7 games and 35.2 innings with a 1.879 WHIP. Of course, take AAA numbers in the PCL with a grain of salt but that’s some serious struggle right there. Overall in the minors in 413.2 innings he has a respectable/good WHIP of 1.235 and a K/BB of 3.33.

The Mets bats should also see Sandy Alcantara today who is coming off of a rough start at the end of July. He is 4-10 over 21 starts and 123.0 innings with a 4.54 ERA, 5.05 FIP, 1.480 WHIP and 91 ERA+. In his last four starts he has allowed 19 runs over 21.2 innings (7.89 ERA) and opponents are getting on base at a .394 clip. He’s been mixed against the Mets this year in two starts he has allowed a total of 8 runs in 11.2 innings from 17 hits. In the other start he tossed a complete game shutout holding the Mets to 2 hits and a walk. The Mets have the following numbers against him:

Let’s Go Mets!

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