213 Miles From Shea

Ths is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Tomas Nido is probably the most well known player on this list (and this list includes Pete Alonso) because it doesn’t feel like Nido qualifies as a prospect anymore, but he did before the 2019 season. Nido, drafted in 2012, first saw major league action in the 2017 season. BA wrote before the 2019 season that due to the Mets catching situation in 2018, he got an early call up, despite opening his season in AA. Both Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki got injured. Nido didn’t use the situation to standout, hitting .167/.200/.238.

BA writes that Nido will stick around the MLB because of his defensive skills, not because of his hitting. They expected him to spend his time in 2019 at Syracuse, downplaying his age (25) because “catchers develop later”.

What BA didn’t predict, is that the Mets are the Mets and they would Mets up their catching situation in new ways in 2019. When BA wrote the prospect book, the Mets had already traded Plawecki away but had committed to d’Arnaud as the back up and Wilson Ramos as the starter. This was also before the Mets went out and signed Devin Mesoraco.

Travis d’Arnaud started off hurt, then got injured, the Mets lost Mesoraco due to their own incompetence and Nido saw a lot of playing time, getting into 50 games and having 144 PA’s hitting .191/.231/.316. Which isn’t good but he’s not supposed to be an offensive minded back up catcher.

Right now Nido is marked as the back up catcher to Ramos going into 2020. Nido will face pressure to protect that role throughout spring training with an old Mets-favorite in town on an NRI, Rene Rivera. Nido has earned both his grade of 40 and his risk of Low from BA, we aren’t expecting any surprises in 2020. (But it is the Mets so who knows)

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Most of Baseball America’s pre-2019 write up about Jordan Humphreys was about injuries which ended up as an interesting back drop to how his 2019 season went. After being drafted, Jordan was noted for his control. In 2017 he was dominating in Columbia with a 1.42 ERA over 11 starts and 70.0 innings with a 0.72 ERA before he needed Tommy John. He then missed the rest of 2017 and 2018.

Baseball America noted that he could rise back up through the Mets system quickly if he came back strong from injury. But that rise had to wait – he had another surgery in the off-season before 2019 which pushed his debut back until July with the Gulf Coast Rookie team. Basically he spent 2019 in extended spring training.

But at the end of the season a lot of good things happened. He dominated in 4 outings, 11.2 innings, in the Arizona Fall League with a 0.77 ERA and a 1.029 WHIP. He was also added to the 40-man roster.

Depending on inning control this year, we’ll probably see him quite a bit at the start of Spring Training while the Mets figure out where to put him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets shut down at some point in the season as he tries to get his arm strength back (actually I’ll be more surprised if this doesn’t happen). He’s still young, the Mets drafted him in 2015 at 19 years old and while injuries have allowed his stock in the system to slide a bit, the Mets have traded most of their older pitching talent away.

We are rooting for you in 2020 Jordan!

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

The Mets traded two interesting prospects for J.D. Davis last year: Ross Adolph and Luis Santana (#13 on this list). A week later they signed Jed Lowrie and it felt like the Mets gave up two players that could make the farm system interesting, for nothing. But Jed Lowrie essentially never played and J.D. Davis had a break out year. So it looks like things went well for the Mets on this trade.

Ross Adolph delivered an initially outcry of angst from Mets fans when he was traded because of his pro-debut season in 2018. The Mets drafted him in the 12th round but as BA notes, he ended up ranking third in the NYPL in slugging, .509, and OPS, .857. Difficult to do because the Cyclones play in a tough park for left handed power. He hit 7 homers on the road and 13 triples. He is also “the system’s best defensive outfielder thanks to all-out abandon, plus athleticism and above-average range in center field”. In a system lacking true defensive outfielders (and a system that just traded Kelenic) this felt like a loss. BA concludes with “if he can develop an average bat with average power, he could have a long career as an extra outfielder or possible starter.”

2019 (Low A/HighA): 460 PA, 382 AB, 7 HR, .228/.357/.366, .723 OPS

While his homer power dipped in his first full season of pro-ball he continued to put up a high on base percentage and hit enough doubles and triples to still put up an above 700 OPS at 22 years old. Right now it looks like he is more towards a career of an extra outfielder, and this is contingent at what he does at the next level. I don’t know enough about the Astros system to make a prediction as to where he could go.

A lot of the J.D. Davis trade depends on Luis Santana, but if Ross Adolph only becomes a defensive minded extra outfield bat, then the Mets came out of the deal as winners. We’ll continue this conversation in 5 days when we get to Santana.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

After two straight days of reviewing prospects that are no longer with the Mets (Adam Hill and Eric Hanhold) today we get to review a player still with the team (before tomorrow we go back to players no longer on the team with Ross Adolph). Will Toffey was the second play acquired in the Jeurys Familia trade with Bobby Wahl.

BA noted before the 2019 season that Toffey “has an outstanding batting approach that helped him run a 16 percent walk rate in 2018 and a .375 on base percentage in pro ball” and that “he makes consistent hard, line-drive contact that equates to an average hit tool with gap power.” They speculate that he needs to develop more regular power to see playing time at the major league level and that he should be in Syracuse for the 2019 season. When the Mets acquired him from Oakland in 2018, he was playing in their A+ league, where Toffey was almost a year older than the average player. The Mets sent him to Binghamton where he was 1.3 years younger than average.

2019 Binghamton: 323 PA, 269 AB, .219/.347/.349, .696 OPS

First off, Toffey hit as advertised last year, putting up an on base percentage way higher than his batting average. That’s a positive sign. His power just wasn’t there, which is the opposite of a positive sign. Unlike BA’s prediction, Toffey did not get bumped to Syracuse last year and was the average age in Double A last year. Unless some crazy roster stuff happens, he’ll probably get bumped up to Syracuse this year.

Like many people on Twitter, I was surprised by a specific line in a press release from the Bloomberg campaign yesterday:

Mr. Met is going to be at the Bloomberg campaign office today? Why?

This just seems like an odd thing for the Mets to do on several levels, which is probably why it doesn’t seem like such an odd thing for the Mets to do.

First, like most places in America, Mets fans are fairly split on politics. No data to back up this claim, just anecdotal experiences from sitting with people in the outfield. You hear things pretty far to the left (hi, that’s me!) and you hear things pretty far to the right. Baseball in general among specific demographics tends to lean more conservative (fan bases tend to be older, whiter, which leads to this, not that anything about baseball is conservative itself).

Bloomberg is also fairly divisive as a New York figure as well. He faces criticism on stop and frisk (very deserved – remember I lean left) to gun control measures (I support him on this, remember I really lean left).

For a team that can’t seem to find there way out of any scandals this off-season, doing something like this seems to invite another scandal to the plate.

Of course there is one thing Bloomberg could do today that would unite Mets fans from both sides of the political aisle – buy the Mets! Drop out of the race and just save us from the Wilpons.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

For a second straight day we look at player who is no longer in the Mets organization. Eric Hanhold was DFA’d by the Mets in September to make room for Donnie Hart, a move widely regarded as poor roster management. Eric Hanhold was then picked up by the Orioles who then DFA’d him this winter but no one else picked him up (the Mets let this opportunity to un-do their previous move slip by) so Hanhold is now off the Orioles roster and has an NRI to spring training.

Hanhold was one of the many pitchers acquired by the Mets in their 2017 sell-off. He was traded for an August waiver wire deal with the Brewers for Neil Walker. He threw quite hard and had a hard slider which BA described as “devastating late break and wipeout potential in and out of the strikezone”. They predicted that he would see a lot of time at the major league level in 2019 as an “up and down reliever” pitching himself into more important situations as the year went on.

2019 Minors: 48 G, 63.1 IP, 3.84 ERA, 1.484 WHIP, 7.7 K/9

Baseball America wasn’t write about his playing time in the major league level, but the team did such a bad job with the roster, especially relievers, this isn’t surprising at all. Hanhold had a lot of promise and looked to be one of the better pitchers the Mets acquired in 2017, but it just didn’t work out. Despite being an NRI to Orioles camp, he has a decent chance to break camp with the team or find his way to Baltimore at some point this season. We wish him nothing but the best.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

There’s an alternate universe where I start this article something like this:

How neat is it for the Mets, that their #21 and #22 prospects were both drafted in back to back rounds of the 2018 draft out of the same college, South Caroline University?

Adam Hill is the second player on this list that isn’t with the Mets anymore, Chris Viall was the first, he retired last summer. Adam Hill is the first of too many players as we work our way to the top of the list that were traded away last season. Adam Hill was packaged Felix Valerio and Bobby Wahl to the Brewers for Keon Broxton. Keon’s time with the Mets didn’t go swell. Wahl’s time with the Brewers didn’t go so well.

But this article isn’t about them. It’s about Adam Hill, so lets review his time with the Mets before the trade and then let’s look at his first season with the Brewers. Adam Hill was drafted in the 4th round of the 2018 draft. BA notes that he could have been a first round pick but lost his feel for the strike zone. They quote Marc Tramuta, scouting director, as saying Hill reminds him of John Maine. BA concludes by saying “Hill can pitch effectively in short bursts using only his fastball, but to profile as a starter he must develop consistency of his secondary pitches and sharpen his control.”

2018 Brooklyn: 9 G, 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 15.3 K/9
2019 Wisconsin:26 G, 121.2 IP, 3.92 ERA, 1.381 WHIP, 8.1 K/9

Adam had a successful pro-debut in Brooklyn posting a nice ERA and a dominate K/9 rate. The Brewers have gone all in on using him as a starter and he had a solid year, putting up a lot of innings, with a good ERA and seeing a drop in his WHIP. At 22 in the A ball, he was exactly the average age. I don’t know the Brewers system well at all but I assume he will move up to the Brewers version of the St. Lucie this upcoming year to see if puts up similar numbers. The Mets probably didn’t lose an ace or even a regular starter, but they may have lost a longman, something the Mets have struggled to have the last couple of seasons with consistency.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Between spots #20-#30 on BA’s Top 30 Mets prospects list in 2019 there were only two position players. The first was a teenager who plays third, #29 William Lugo. The second is Carlos Cortes, who the Mets are developing as a second basemen. BA notes multiple times in his write up that Cortes doesn’t have a “defensive home” although he can play outfield and second. He’s short, 5’7″ (I’m still a good three inches shorter than he is) and gets around his height/range/speed by playing “workmanlike” according to BA. They specifically note that scouts think he should be a catcher but the Mets have pretty much decided that it’s secondbase or bust for Cortes.

Also an important note, he’s ambidextrous. Throws left when he’s in the outfield, throws right when he’s at second. That’s pretty neat!

Obviously, his defense is not why the Mets drafted him and gave him significant contract. It’s his shitting. He hits for power and has a decent average.

2018 South Carolina (NCAA): 278 PA, 230 AB, 15 HR, .265/.385/.500, 885 OPS
2018 Brooklyn: 202 PA, 178 AB, 4 HR, .264/.338/.382, 720 OPS
2019 St. Lucie: 526 PA, 458 AB, 11 HR, .255/.336/.397, 733 OPS

Cortes has hit so far in pro ball. In 2018 he was the exact average age in his league and last year he was slightly below the average age. From college to each level in the pros he has hasn’t seen too dramatic of a dip (yes there’s a big dip in OPS but power is going to change from the NCAA to the minors). Let’s see if the trend continues for him this year. I really don’t have any insight for Cortes in terms of predicting what level he should play at next year. If the pattern continues, at 23 he should be at Binghamton (no slips so far in every step he’s climbed), I don’t know if there is a logjam ahead of him. I guess we’ll find out in a couple of months!

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

You have probably heard of Ryder Ryan for a couple of reasons. First, compared to many prospects on this list, he’s close to getting a chance in the major. Second, the real reason you’ve heard of him, he was overly scrutinized after the Jay Bruce trade. He wasn’t ranked high in the Cleveland system, Mets fans were hoping to get a lot for a player approaching 30 homers and instead it looked like a salary dump. So Ryan got a lot of attention.

Ryan was a hitter in high school, switching to pitching in his senior year when he showed the serious gas he could through and has spent minor league ball working on his slider. BA in 2019 praised him for his fastball’s speed, spin rate and his 3/4 arm slot all of which contribute to swings and misses.

2017 Columbia: 8 G, 13.0 innings, 2.08 ERA, 0.846 WHIP
2018 Binghamton: 26 G, 32.2 innings, 4.13 ERA, 1.133 WHIP
2019 Binghamton: 25 G, 44.1 innings, 3.05 ERA, 1.263 WHIP

BA ended their Ryan write up with “The Mets have toyed with the idea of moving Ryan to the rotation or at the very least using him as a mult-inning reliever. He is on track for a big league debut in late 2019 or 2020”. Most of this came true. The Mets did increase the length of his outings, giving him 2 starts, although probably inconclusive if he is going to be a multi-inning reliever.

While he didn’t make his debut last year, this would be the appropriate year, at age 25, to move him to Syracuse and at that point he could get called up at any time. All he needs is a hot stretch to coincide when the Mets need a reliever, which is a matter of “when” not “if” and we could see Ryan as a result.

This is the second year where we are walking through the previous season’s Baseball America’s Top Prospect handbook, looking at the all the Mets to see how they are developing against Baseball America’s Projections.

Today we look at Daniel Zamora who was one of the rare players on this list that was destined to be on the 2019 Mets. Heading into the 2019 season, sans- Jerry Blevins, the Mets essentially had Zamora as their lefty/lefty match up pitcher. Closer to the start of the season the Mets picked up Justin Wilson and Luis Avilan who together put Zamora’s status of breaking camp with the major league team in doubt but we knew he was eventually going to see some time in Queens.

Before the start of 2019, BA gave him a 40 grade and risk rating of medium, calling him a one pitcher pitcher who “threw his 76-80 mph slider nearly 80% of the time in a big league debut spanning 16 appearances and 9 innings.”

2018 Stats: 16 G, 9.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.38 FIP, 1.000 WHIP
2019 Stats: 17 G, 8.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 4.94 FIP, 1.731 WHIP
2019 Winter Stats: 10 G, 4.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2.143 WHIP, 13.5 K/9

So BA predicted that Zamora would essentially replace Blevins and I guess that’s what happened? His usage was odd last year (true for most players in the bullpen) and he struggled at the major league level. He did have a 1.100 WHIP last year in AAA over 30.0 innings so there’s that. He did get to spend the off-season with Phil Reagan with Toros.

Zamora is not a critical piece of the puzzle for next season. If he becomes a critical piece then one of two things happened:

1. He really takes a step forward. Not crazy likely, not unheard of for his type of role anyway
2. Something really goes wrong with the Mets bullpen. This is a believable situation which is why I’m glad he got to spend some more time with Phil this off-season