The Mets may have a season defining doubleheader this afternoon at Citi Field. If the Mets sweep the doubleheader, they’ll win their second consecutive series and will continue to chip away at the hole the dug themselves into after the 12 game losing streak. A split would mean dropping a series to the Rockies, squandering the momentum built after the Twins series. Being swept today by the Rockies would put the Mets into a tough spot.
It’s a consequential Sunday at Citi Field!
The Mets will lead the afternoon off with Nolan McLean. McLean has made five starts totaling 30 1/3 innings this season with a 2.67 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 0.758 WHIP and a 149 ERA+. McLean was perfect through five innings in his last start, with all of the damage coming against him late. He struck out a season high 10 batters and now has struck out at least eight batters in four of his five starts. He now has a high 11.3 K/9 paired with a low 0.758 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9. This will be his first start against the Rockies and no one on the Rockies has faced McLean in a major league game.
Kodai Senga returns to the Mets rotation for the nightcap. Senga has had a bizarre season so far allowing 18 runs, 17 earned, over 17 1/3 innings from 23 hits and 10 walks while striking out 22. In his first two starts he allowed four runs over 11 2/3 innings while striking out 16 batters. Since then he has allowed 14 runs over 5 2/3 innings while striking out six batters. Senga faced the Rockies twice last season allowing three runs over 12 1/3 innings with 13 strikeouts. The Rockies have the following career numbers against Senga:
- Jordan Beck 0-5, BB, 2 K
- Willi Castro 0-1, BB, K
- Brenton Doyle 0-5, 3 K
- Tyler Freeman 1-1, 2B
- Hunter Goodman 1-6, 2 K
- Troy Johnston 0-2, K
- Edouard Julien 0-2, BB
- Jake McCarthy 1-3, 2 K
- Mickey Moniak 1-7, HR, 3 K
- Ezequiel Tovar 1-4, HR, BB
The Mets will face an old friend this afternoon in the first game. Jose Quintana had a 3.70 ERA over 44 starts in seasons with the Mets from 2023-24. He pitched for the Brewers last season totaling 131 2/3 innings posting a 3.96 ERA, 4.81 FIP, 1.291 WHIP and a 105 ERA+. This season he has made three starts, 13 innings, with a 6.23 ERA, 7.61 FIP, 1.846 WHIP and a 77 ERA+. Quintana is coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed six runs, four earned, over five innings against the Dodgers from eight hits (two home runs). The Mets have the following career stats against Quintana:
- Brett Baty 0-2
- Bo Bichette 0-1, BB
- MJ Melendez 0-2, BB
- Tommy Pham 6-25, 2B, HR, 2 BB, 4 K
- Luis Robert Jr. 2-6, 2 K
- Marcus Semien 6-15, 3 2B, BB, 3 K
- Juan Soto 2-13, 2 BB, 3 K
- Tyrone Taylor 2-6, 2B, 3 K
- Luis Torrens 0-5, K
- Mark Vientos 1-2
As of writing the Rockies haven’t announced yet who is going to start the nightcap. Depending on how the first game goes, the plan is to use an opener with Chase Dollander to follow. Dollander has pitched six games so far this season totaling 25 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 1.000 WHIP and a 166 ERA+. He has thrown at least four innings in five of his six games. In his last two outings he has allowed only one run over 11 1/3 innings while striking out 18 batters. Dollander faced the Mets once last year and the Mets hit him hard scoring five runs from eight hits and a walk over three innings. The Mets have the following career stats against him:
- Francisco Alvarez 1-2
- Brett Baty 0-2
- Ronny Mauricio 2-2
- Marcus Semien 0-2, K
- Juan Soto 2-2
- Tyrone Taylor 1-1, 2B, BB
Three Things To Watch For:
- Brett Baty. Baty has been on a tear recently, going 4-for-8 in his las two games with a double, a home runs, five RBI’s and three runs scored. Baty got off to a slow start this year hitting .190/.197/.270 over his first 18 games. In his last five games he is slashing .500/.571/.833 and has raised his season OBP from .197 to .263. He’s swinging a hot bat right now and the Mets are going to need him this afternoon.
- A well rested bullpen. Christian Scott only gave the Mets 1 1/3 innings on Thursday with the bullpen having to pick up the rest of the game. Sean Manaea was able to finish Friday’s game and the Mets had a day off yesterday, so pretty much everyone is ready to go today. With another off day tomorrow this is probably the best scenario for the Mets bullpen. Devin Williams is the player to watch today. He massively struggled earlier this week, failing to get an out after facing five batters. He came in to record the final two outs on Thursday and made things interesting, but ultimately survived.
- Carson Benge. Each game it feels like we are getting closer to a Carson Benge breakout. His bat is in the 75th percentile for average exit velocity (91 mph), 64th in Hard-hit% (44.4%) and 72nd for Launch Angle Sweet-spot% (37%). His softest contact on Friday night was 85.6 mph right at someone (lineout, .630 xBA). His other three batted balls in play were between 95.2 and 104.9 mph.
Let’s Go Mets!
