Game Preview: Diamondbacks vs Mets

Tonight is one of those moments where both teams get to exhale and say, “well, at least we are playing the Mets/Diamondbacks”.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are five games below .500 and currently riding a three game losing streak with a -4 run differential. They come to Citi Field tonight as one of the better defensive teams in the league, just the results of games haven’t worked out for them. They have scored the 10th most runs in the league yet they have only a -4 run differential. They sorely need a series against a struggling Mets team.

As long as you were on planet Earth on Wednesday, you know the state of the Mets. They got swept by the Dodgers falling to 11 games below .500. Like four of their last six games, the Mets were tied at one point late in the game and had a meltdown. Wednesday’s meltdown just happened to be spectacular leading to a team meeting and a player getting DFA’d hours after the game. The Mets sorely need a series against an underperforming Diamondbacks team.

Christian Scott looks to right the ship for the Mets this afternoon. Over four starts and 22 2/3 innings, Scott has a 3.97 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.103 WHIP and a 97 ERA+. He’s coming off of strong start against the Giants where he allowed two runs from two hits over six innings. According to Baseball Savant, Scott’s performance so far has been about league average, which is fine. The Mets need average right now. He’s in the 73rd percentile for xERA (3.31) and the 84th for BB% (5.4%), he’s just not getting hitters yet to consistently chase his pitches (26th percentile).

The Mets bats start the series off against the ace of the Diamondbacks rotation, Zac Gallen. Over 10 games and 57 2/3 innings, Gallen has a 3.12 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.127 WHIP and a 128 ERA+. Gallen has a better FIP over his last three starts (2.98) than his season line, but a worse ERA (3.66). He’s struck out 19 batters over his last 19 2/3. The Mets hit Gallen hard last year, tagging him for seven runs, six earned over five innings while the Diamondbacks were making their September run. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 4-14, 2B, 2 BB, 6 K
  • Harrison Bader 0-2
  • Brett Baty 2-3, K
  • Francisco Lindor 2-9, 2B, BB, K
  • Starling Marte 0-2, 2 BB, K
  • J.D. Martinez 3-6, HR, K
  • Jeff McNeil 3-16, 2B, 4 K
  • Omar Narváez 0-8, 2 K
  • Tomás Nido 1-3, BB, K
  • DJ Stewart 0-2
  • Tyrone Taylor 1-5, 2B, BB, K
  • Mark Vientos 1-3, HR, K

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Can the Mets have a normal day? I don’t remember the last time the Mets had a normal day, can they have one today? Yesterday started off with Edwin Díaz landing on the IL right before first pitch. Alonso then left the game after getting hit by a pitch, the Mets bullpen blew the game wide open for the Dodgers in 8th inning and then everything else happened. The Mets are in desperate need for a normal day.
  2. Danny Young. It was announced after the game that Danny Young will be returning the Mets for tonight’s game. The Mets bullpen was already taxed from the doubleheader on Tuesday. Wednesday they had to put in extra work and lost two relievers, so the current state is pretty bad. Danny Young pitched three innings over two games earlier this season allowing an unearned run off two hits and three walks while striking out 13. Over 12 games in Syracuse he has a 1.59 ERA. He’s walked 11 batters over 11 1/3 innings but has also struck out 18.
  3. Hitting with runners in scoring position. There are a lot of problems with the Mets right now, and this one has been fairly consistent over the last couple of weeks. The Mets went 1-for-6 with RISP and left 10 batters on base overall in yesterday’s game. This has been true throughout the weekend. There is an incredible amount of pressure on the bullpen to be perfect, because the offense is just not producing runs.

Let’s Go Mets!

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