Game Preview: Marlins vs Mets

The Mets collapse in 2007 was punctuated by a Marlins team that beat the Mets on the last day of the season. For me personally, it’s a demon that has never been fully exorcised, despite the collapse being more about the Mets than anything else. The Mets have the chance to return the favor all of these years later as the Marlins chase a playoff berth with one week to go in the season. The Marlins are one game out of the third wild card spot. The Mets, despite losing four games in a row, our somehow two losses out of a protected pick in the draft.

Joey Lucchesi has made eight starts for the Mets this season, totaling 40 2/3 innings with a 2.88 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 1.279 WHIP and a 148 ERA+. His first start since rejoining the rotation was brilliant. He allowed one run, none earned, over seven innings from five hits. Last time out he allowed three runs, two earned, over 5 2/3 against the Marlins in a game the Mets eventually lost 4-3. The Marlins have the following career numbers against Lucchesi:

  • Garrett Hampson 6-19, 2B, HR, 4 K, BB
  • Josh Bell 3-10, 2 2B, 2 K, BB
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr. 0-5, 2 K
  • Jon Berti 1-2, 2B, BB
  • Jorge Soler 1-2, 2B, K, BB
  • Jake Burger 1-2
  • Bryan De La Cruz 0-3
  • Xavier Edwards 1-2, K
  • Nick Fortes 0-1, K
  • Joey Wendle 1-1, 2B

Braxton Garrett is probably making another start after today’s game. If he didn’t though, his season started with two game straight against the Mets and it ended with two straight games against the Mets.

Garrett has made 29 starts and pitched in 30 games this season totaling 155 2/3 innings with a 3.53 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 1.143 WHIP and a 127 ERA+. In his last four starts he has allowed only three runs, two earned, over 21 2/3 innings (0.83 ERA, 2.61 FIP). This includes a start against the Mets last week where he allowed one unearned run from five hits over six innings in a game the Marlins eventually won 4-3. Earlier in the year the Mets scored four runs from 15 hits over 7 2/3 innings across two starts. The Mets have the following career numbers against him:

  • Pete Alonso 4-13, HR, 3 K, 2 BB
  • Brandon Nimmo 1-10
  • Francisco Lindor 4-12, 2B, 2 HR, 3 K
  • Francisco Álvarez 1-5, 3 K
  • Jeff McNeil 3-6, 2B, BB
  • Luis Guillorme 1-4, BB
  • Tim Locastro 0-4, 2 K
  • Ronny Mauricio 1-3, 2B, K
  • DJ Stewart 0-2, K
  • Daniel Vogelbach 0-1
  • Mark Vientos 0-2
  • Omar Narváez 1-2

Three Things To Watch For:

  1. Joey Lucchesi: Tonight is probably Joey’s last start of the year. Potentially he could see some work out of the pen or make a short start in one of the very last games of the season. He’s been impressive this year in the short spurts the Mets have given him and the Mets have plenty of rotation holes going into next season. Could next season be the year the Mets finally give Lucchesi a consistent chance? Tonight is effectively his last audition before spring training.
  2. Strikeouts. The Mets bats collectively looked lost on Sunday night, racking up 13 strikeouts in the game to only one walk and three hits. The Mets bats are at their best when they are patient at the plate. Four players struck out multiple times with Mauricio and Alonso each striking out three times. (Mauricio also hit a laser for his second career homer). When this happened a few weeks ago, before the Mets offense had a mini-resurgence, the first signs that the Mets bats were coming back was the K/BB ratio dropped to about 2/1 after being 4+/1 for several straight games. We’ll be looking at strikeouts and walks tonight to get a sense of what this last week will feel like.
  3. Milestone Tracker: There aren’t many games left to reach these milestones! Lindor is three home runs away from a 30-30 season. Nimmo is still looking for one more home run to reach 25, Álvarez is looking for two more to get to 25 and Pete Alonso needs five more for 50 on the year.

Let’s Go Mets!

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