2018 Stats Projection – Adrian Gonzalez

Adrián Gonzalez was a surprise move for the Mets at the same as he was not a surprise move at all. Gonzalez was traded to the Braves as part of a salary cap shifting move by the Dodgers and then immediately dropped so the Mets got him for the league minimum. That part is not surprising, especially if your world Mets view is “the Mets are cheap”.

The move was surprising because 1) the Mets have are supposed to be developing Dom Smith and 2) right before picking up Adrián, the Mets signed Bruce saying that Bruce would spend some time playing first base too and 3) the Mets are still looking for at bats for Wilmer Flores.

Anyway, here are the projections for Adrián, who is coming off injury filled season.

Adrian Gonzalez
Baseball Prospectus 42 8.13 5 1 0.265 0.327 0.423
Steamer 275 245 62 29 9 0.255 0.327 0.423
ESPN 330 88.11 35 9 0.267 0.334 0.409
MLB.com 350 91 37 9 0.26 0.315 0.397
Baseball Reference 389 348 92 40 12 0.264 0.331 0.425
Average: 235.3333 318.25 68.248 29.2 8 0.2622 0.3268 0.4154
2017 Stats: 252 231 56 14 3 0.242 0.287 0.355

There is quite a bit of variance in playing time for Gonzalez with Prospectus thinking he barely gets any playing time to MLB.com and Baseball Reference thinking he plays half the season. It does look like all of the programs think last year is a fluke* and that he bounces back a bit.

*Programs for a while have projected a decline in stats for Gonzalez, and these are still declines compared to career numbers. Last year was just extra bad. Now if he isn’t healthy then we should see a repeat of last year’s numbers.

I still don’t get the Gonzalez move at all and I rather Dom Smith put up numbers below his his projected average or Dom Smith put up Gonzalez 2017’s slash lines than roll the dice with Gonzalez.

This entry was posted in Main Page. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *