Were They Right? Reviewing Matt Harvey’s 2015 Projections

Last year I looked at every single Matt Harvey projection that I could find probably like every other Mets fan. Would we get old Matt Harvey back? It felt like the entire season was up to how Harvey would perform, which isn’t too far from the truth. Let’s take a look at those 2015 Harvey projections and compare it to his performance:

PECOTA (BP): 2-2, 7 G, 39 IP, 40 K, 11 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.85 ERA
PECOTA (MLB.com): 10-8, 151.1 IP, 152 K, 43 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.91 ERA
MLB.com: 10-7, 170.0 IP, 191 K, 37 BB, 1.08 WHIP, 3.07 ERA
ZiPS: 25 G, 153 IP, 140 K, 49 BB, 3.12 ERA
Steamer: 9-7, 23 G, 144 IP, 158 K, 39 BB, 3.00 ERA
ESPN: 11-6, 172 K, 1.10 WHIP, 3.04 ERA

Average: 8.4-6, 131.3 IP, 142 K, 35.8 BB, 1.09 WHIP, 2.998 ERA

(Original posted here)

And in 2015 he put up these numbers:
13-8, 29 G, 189.1 IP, 1.02 WHIP, 2.71 ERA

Harvey was great! His pitching numbers are higher than a lot of people thought because pitching limits were sort of enforced but sort of not. His ERA was better than any individual projection. His WHIP was accurately predicted by just about everyone which is actually amazing. As a quick preview to a later article, the projections are expecting much of the same for 2016.

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